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2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

G650

G650 14273

Posted
Posted
Just now, Valmy77 said:

Ok guys I hope all of you find time to vote today if you have not already, even if you just write-in IP Freely for each office.

I voted Michael Jackson for President in '04. Not even making that up.

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

Posted
Posted

Just voted. Medium sized line, lots of olds.

It was very disheartening to see fully 70% of the races were Republicans running unopposed. I wrote in Nick Saban for all of those.

Voted for Walt Maddox and voted no to putting the Ten Commandments on state property (the Roy Moore amendment), no to fetus personhood/outlaw abortion, and no to eliminating special elections for vacant seats (the no more Doug Jones amendment).

Go vote!
05f7cd9a02fe38bf55977c44c0d904a8.jpg

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20256

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Just voted. Medium sized line, lots of olds.

It was very disheartening to see fully 70% of the races were Republicans running unopposed. I wrote in Nick Saban for all of those.

Voted for Walt Maddox and voted no to putting the Ten Commandments on state property (the Roy Moore amendment), no to fetus personhood/outlaw abortion, and no to eliminating special elections for vacant seats (the no more Doug Jones amendment).

Go vote!
05f7cd9a02fe38bf55977c44c0d904a8.jpg

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13221

Posted
Posted (edited)

2020 ads will literally feature the Happy Merchant and both-siders will finger-wag the left for calling it anti-Semitic

Stolen from some tweet...

2016: "You guys are acting like Trump is going to start up concentration camps, stop being ridiculous."

2018: "First of all, it's offensive that you're calling them concentration camps."

2020: "Look, they had a chance to leave. How can you be so outraged about this when they CHOSE to stay?"

And this is how the centrists lubricate the Slip'n'Slide to fascism.

Edited by bad_teammate
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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted

FUCK YOU KEMP!!!! Reading a ton of tweets and posts on r/Atlanta that people are noticing a lot fewer machines at polling locations vs. the same day in 2016. Jesus fucking christ, wait times are getting insane and people are leaving and (hopefully) coming back later.

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Js1

Js1 85474

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Ghost of Shag said:

I live in Florida, and work at a location that is used for polling.

Never seen a turnout like this.  There are a hundred people in the lobby waiting to vote, and it has been that way all day.  

 

39 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

FUCK YOU KEMP!!!! Reading a ton of tweets and posts on r/Atlanta that people are noticing a lot fewer machines at polling locations vs. the same day in 2016. Jesus fucking christ, wait times are getting insane and people are leaving and (hopefully) coming back later.

 

Report the lines. Feed them.  Keep them in line. 

https://polls.pizza/

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Lurch

Lurch 5931

Posted
Posted
Of course they will.  
My favorite last second shenanigans is going to occur in Fla on Jan. 9th.  Three justices have to retire that day due to age.  The law reads like they are out at midnight.  Rick Scott will be governor until ~noon that day.  Scott has said that he will appoint 3 state supreme court justices in his final hours to serve 6 years each.  How many people think Rick would work closely with potential Gov. Gillum to appoint justices that will serve all Floridians?
This happened once before in '99 with 1 justice retiring and a Dem was replaced by a Repub (Jeb.)  They compromised on a justice.   


I’m not sure it actually does anything, but here in my first year as a FL resident I learned we get to affirm/not the state court justices. They were all R appointments (doesn’t show that on ballot) so I voted against them all.
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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5300

Posted
Posted

Final 538 models:

House:

"Lite" 233-202, 80.5% chance of D majority. Range from 17-61 gain.

"Deluxe" 231-204, 85.8% chance of D majority. 20-54 seat gain.

"Classic" 234-201, 87.9% chance of D majority. 21-59 seat gain.

Senate:

52-48 in all models. Between 79-81% chance of GOP majority.

FWIW, Silver thinks his "Deluxe" models will be closest to actual result.

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Js1

Js1 85474

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

My twitter knowledge is purely from the links people post here.  I don't venture into that hellscape personally.

If you tell us the name of what locations have long lines, I'm sure Surly's #1 Detective Agency can do the work to find the social media post and request the pizzas.

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25986

Posted
Posted

FWIW, this is wrong.  49 is Issa's seat.  That crooked-ass Harkey isn't the incumbent.

 

3 hours ago, sushihorn said:

If any of you care about EV in contested CA House districts, this is the latest compiled by Political Data Inc. Last updated yesterday unless indicated otherwise.

 

CA-50 (RCP rates leans R) - incumbent Hunter (R): registered D 27,047, registered R 44,048, other/independent 21,784

CA-49 (leans D) - incumbent Harkey (R): D 38,606, R 45,878, I 28,554

CA-48 (tossup) - incumbent Rohrbacher(R): D 39,779, R 53,385, I 29,732

CA-45 (T) - incumbent Walters (R): D 39,806, R 52,721, I 31,928

CA-39 (T) - open seat (R): 26,754 D, 34,230 R, 19,311 I

CA-25 (T) - Incumbent Knight (R): 27,349 D, 28,977 R, 16,614 I

CA -24 (Likely D) - Incumbent Carbajal (D): 47,459 D, 43,075 R, 27,247 I

CA-22 (Likely R) - Incumbent Nunes (R): 24,146 D, 36,638 R, 13,423 I

CA-21 (Likely R) - Incumbent Valdao (R): D 17,500, R 16,242, I 8,137

CA-10 (T) - Incumbent Denham (R): 30,138 D, 30,137 R, 14,455 I.  Last updated 11/2

CA-7 (Leans D) - Incumbent Bera (D): 42,077 D, 39,404 R, 24,106 I. Last updated 11/2

CA-4 (Leans R) - Incumbent McClintock (R): 44,033 D, 62,033 R, 30,753 I.  Last updated 11/2

 

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kopp0e

kopp0e 1135

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

2020 ads will literally feature the Happy Merchant and both-siders will finger-wag the left for calling it anti-Semitic

Stolen from some tweet...

2016: "You guys are acting like Trump is going to start up concentration camps, stop being ridiculous."

2018: "First of all, it's offensive that you're calling them concentration camps."

2020: "Look, they had a chance to leave. How can you be so outraged about this when they CHOSE to stay?"

And this is how the centrists lubricate the Slip'n'Slide to fascism.

In that progression, I wonder what the years of 2024 & 2026, would say under the same current administration...

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14600

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

44,500 people have now voted in Travis County.  That number needs to get to about 125,000 in order to assuage concerns about early vote having cannibalized the Election Day turnout.  

We look to be pretty close to the glidepath.  

Thanks for that update.  I had wondered about that nationwide.  Was the early voting coming out of election day?  Judging by the rest of the country, the answer is no.  

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33881

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

44,500 people have now voted in Travis County.  That number needs to get to about 125,000 in order to assuage concerns about early vote having cannibalized the Election Day turnout.  

We look to be pretty close to the glidepath.  

where ya finding those numbers?

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Thanks for that update.  I had wondered about that nationwide.  Was the early voting coming out of election day?  Judging by the rest of the country, the answer is no.  

Travis County is a very small data point when looking nationwide.  But given how Democratic it is, it's an encouraging very small data point.

By the way--the Travis County Clerk is tweeting out those numbers hourly.

I'm not aware of any other county clerk doing the same.

Edited by Ghost of LL
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