2018 - Elections and Trends

[Patrick Bateman 3987]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

My sister reports someone scrawled MAGA inside her booth.

She scrawl "Sucks"?

[sushihorn 3253]

48 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Wow. Outpacing a presidential year in Travis would be huge for Dems. Do any conservative counties publish stats like this? Wonder how they are turning out. 

Impressive.  Just keep in mind that there are 7% more registered voters in Travis Co since 2016.

[Huckleberry 34751]

Sweet, Travis County just accidentally posted their 2016 hourly numbers

Edited November 6, 2018 by Huckleberry
Updated link in case they delete the mistake

[Huckleberry 34751]

1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

Impressive.  Just keep in mind that there are 7% more registered voters in Travis Co since 2016.

lulz

You and RayDog are hilarious. Always bringing up any data point that supports your side whenever possible. The entire point of the comparisons is seeing if EV cannibalized election day voting.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3875]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Sweet, Travis County just accidentally posted their 2016 hourly numbers

holy crap.  we are swamping those numbers.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3875]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

lulz

You and RayDog are hilarious. Always bringing up any data point that supports your side whenever possible. The entire point of the comparisons is seeing if EV cannibalized election day voting.

It's useful information.  

[atomheartbevo 90686]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Sweet, Travis County just accidentally posted their 2016 hourly numbers

They got the title wrong, but somebody asked them to post the hourly totals from 2016.

[Pancho 46377]

 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

3 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Impressive.  Just keep in mind that there are 7% more registered voters in Travis Co since 2016.

Regardless, I would imagine that 7% are far more likely to vote Dem.  Its good news for Dems no matter the reason turnout is higher in Travis.

[Huckleberry 34751]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

It's useful information.  

No it's not. Nobody is analyzing the difference between 2016 and 2018 to compare voter turnout with respect to registered voters. We are looking at it to get a feel for election day turnout versus early voting. Therefore it's irrelevant.

[Patrick Bateman 3987]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

holy crap.  we are swamping those numbers.

No, we're not..... we're running slightly behind them, but only marginally.  Big turnout for a mid-term though.

[Pancho 46377]

They are trying lol

 

[GSU&UT 1799]

Just a sign of a normal functioning democracy. If turnout is this high then there is no way Kemp wins tonight and I would be shocked if GA-06 didn't flip blue. Getting my body to rage later.

[kevwun 16449]

I'm hearing Larry Schweikart is wanted in Nevada for raping goats.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3875]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

No it's not. Nobody is analyzing the difference between 2016 and 2018 to compare voter turnout with respect to registered voters. We are looking at it to get a feel for election day turnout versus early voting. Therefore it's irrelevant.

Thank you for that.  I'd like to look at numbers and understand why they are different.  That is a useful data point for my purposes.  

[Huckleberry 34751]

4 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

holy crap.  we are swamping those numbers.

It's actually just a really different progression. 2016 was much higher in the early hours, but the bigger issue I've already seen is that this hourly graph doesn't match the 2016 tweets I posted.

[staboner 5098]

3 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

this is just heartbreaking. so frustrating that people actively work to undermine one of our core values as a society. 

[Huckleberry 34751]

I'm thinking in 2016 they tweeted out actually cast ballot numbers versus their chart and 2018 reports which are voter check-ins, so there's a lag to casting a ballot? But it shouldn't be that big of a difference. You check in right before you vote, right? There's a line to check in then a much shorter line to vote.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

 

[sushihorn 3253]

10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

lulz

You and RayDog are hilarious. Always bringing up any data point that supports your side whenever possible. The entire point of the comparisons is seeing if EV cannibalized election day voting.

Did you miss the "outpacing a presidential year" I was responding to?

[Huckleberry 34751]

No, I didn't miss it. I was commenting on your overall posting behavior. No big deal, you definitely get a lot of credit for not just pulling numbers out of your ass like RayDog does.

[Huckleberry 34751]

More long lunches in 2018, way more late work arrivals in 2016.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Huckleberry

[sushihorn 3253]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

No, I didn't miss it. I was commenting on your overall posting behavior. No big deal, you definitely get a lot of credit for not just pulling numbers out of your ass like RayDog does.

Man I guess thinking people might be interested in the EV from Cali or changes in registration in TX is just vicious partisanship in your mind.  What the hell happened to you man?

[NIUHuskies 505]

 

[Huckleberry 34751]

6 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Man I guess thinking people might be interested in the EV from Cali or changes in registration in TX is just vicious partisanship in your mind.  What the hell happened to you man?

You seem defensive. It's not vicious partisanship, it's a bias in the information you post. Every time data comes in that is good news for Republicans (e.g., party ID among early voters), you post it. Every time data comes in that is good news for Democrats (e.g, increase in voter share for younger voters), you don't post it. Nobody is saying it's vicious partisanship, it's more actively searching for confirmation bias opportunities. A good analyst like you should be able to self-scout, so to speak, and recognize these behaviors. It's something everyone has to fight, so you really don't need to take it so personally.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Huckleberry

[NIUHuskies 505]

Not sure if this got posted:
 

 

[horncyclist 1391]

Just now, NIUHuskies said:

Not sure if this got posted:
 

 

Any comparison to 2016?

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

4 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

 

another 9k. not showing any signs of slowing

[NIUHuskies 505]

 

[NIUHuskies 505]

2 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Any comparison to 2016?

122,692 day of

475,999 EV

[RayDog 682]

16 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

No, I didn't miss it. I was commenting on your overall posting behavior. No big deal, you definitely get a lot of credit for not just pulling numbers out of your ass like RayDog does.

I work off a spreedsheet based on established trends from 2012 to now. I am not pulling numbers out of my ass as you contend.

Once we have results I will compare them to my projections.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

With all due credit to @TexasMan, this deserves to be posted multiple locations. NSFW-ish
https://twitter.com/nachosarah/status/1059898729975578624?s=19

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3875]

1 minute ago, NIUHuskies said:

 

Looks like ED votes were in El Paso were 64k in 2016.

DONALD J. TRUMP REP 16565 25.59%

HILLARY CLINTON DEM 43439 67.10%

GARY JOHNSON LIB 2864 4.42%

JILL STEIN GRN 1155 1.78%

Write-in Votes 719 1.11%

[Huckleberry 34751]

6 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

Not sure if this got posted:
 

 

 

6 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Any comparison to 2016?

 

2 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

122,692 day of

475,999 EV

Based on those numbers, looks like Bexar is going to be a county where 2018 early voting affected election day turnout. They're on pace for about 100K election day votes.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Huckleberry

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3875]

[Zonahorn 8079]

2 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

With all due credit to @TexasMan, this deserves to be posted multiple locations. NSFW-ish
https://twitter.com/nachosarah/status/1059898729975578624?s=19

They are real and they are spectacular. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

 

[NIUHuskies 505]

 

[cactusflinthead 27628]

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3875]

oh man.  swift, oprah, and ellen takin over.  god save us all if beyonce has opinions.

[horncyclist 1391]

2 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Just came to post this. Holy shit.

[Aqua Buddha 14810]

4 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Ruh roh....

I'm sure it's throngs of voters who were upset by the way Kavanaugh was treated.

[Hawndoh 2409]

I guess missed something. Did Taylor Swift tweet her Nashville fans telling them to go vote or something?

[Patrick Bateman 3987]

7 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

More....

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by Patrick Bateman

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Ruh roh....

I'm sure it's throngs of voters who were upset by the way Kavanaugh was treated.

Dems aren’t flipping Tennessee senate race. 

[Patrick Bateman 3987]

1 minute ago, Hawndoh said:

I guess missed something. Did Taylor Swift tweet her Nashville fans telling them to go vote or something?

Yes.... and came out as a Democrat and for Bredesen.....

 

 

[HenryJames 67474]

30 minutes ago, RayDog said:

I work off a spreedsheet based on established trends from 2012 to now. I am not pulling numbers out of my ass as you contend.

Once we have results I will compare them to my projections.

Is the spreadsheet in your ass?

[Johnny Sack 8397]

4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Ruh roh....

I'm sure it's throngs of voters who were upset by the way Kavanaugh was treated.

The polls in Tennessee flipped in favor of Blackburn precisely when the Kavanaugh deal happened. 

[Aqua Buddha 14810]

Have a friend whose hubby is an elected Republican in Collin County.  (I can't say which office.). They also go to a Baptist megachurch.

She told me that her and most of her women friends voted Beto.

Take the loss, Ted.