2018 - Elections and Trends

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

The polls in Tennessee flipped in favor of Blackburn precisely when the Kavanaugh deal happened. 

That explains the huge turnout in the Dem precincts of Nashville then....

[GSU&UT 1,798]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Have a friend whose hubby is an elected Republican in Collin County.  (I can't say which office.). They also go to a Baptist megachurch.

She told me that her and most of her women friends voted Beto.

Take the loss, Ted.

Wouldn't that be some shit if the wives of all these pieces of shit bucked them and flip districts, senate seats, governorships blue? 

[Fozzz 152]

Blackburn had one of the most insanely racist ads of this whole cycle. Maybe that helped her. 

 

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

3 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Don't let the door hit you on the ass, Mimi 

Mimi Walters is TERRIBLE. She represents a district in Orange County, California. How the hell can you be a California congressman and vote to repeal Obamacare, vote for tax cuts, and vote against protections for medical marijuana?

terrible at her job. I’m really hoping she goes.

[Hawndoh 2,382]

My social circle is Collin and Dallas counties, all part of what most on this board dismiss as backwards fundamentalist Christian types (church of Christ). 

I'd guess about 75% of our circle went Beto. Including my wife and I. 

[RayDog 682]

11 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Is the spreadsheet in your ass?

No, on my computer.

[conVINCEd 21,468]

3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Have a friend whose hubby is an elected Republican in Collin County.  (I can't say which office.). They also go to a Baptist megachurch.

She told me that her and most of her women friends voted Beto.

Take the loss, Ted.

Every mid-30’s/early 40’s white, college-educated, suburban mom I know is being very vocal about their support for Beto.  Very vocal.  I’m guessing at least 80% of them voted for Cruz last time.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

Just now, Hawndoh said:

My social circle is Collin and Dallas counties, all part of what most on this board dismiss as backwards fundamentalist Christian types (church of Christ). 

I'd guess about 75% of our circle went Beto. Including my wife and I. 

Cannot pos rep, but good job.

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

3 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

My social circle is Collin and Dallas counties, all part of what most on this board dismiss as backwards fundamentalist Christian types (church of Christ). 

I'd guess about 75% of our circle went Beto. Including my wife and I. 

America and Texas thank you.

[yoladu 4,066]

 

10 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Blackburn had one of the most insanely racist ads of this whole cycle. Maybe that helped her. 

 

 

you'd like to think well educated Republicans would be embarrassed by the naked racism and fear mongering in these ads?

Do you just shrug your shoulders and try to rationalize that the means justify the ends? i mean, what gymnastics do you do in order to feel good about associating with a political party that does this kinda of thing routinely?

 

or is it that fewer and fewer people can't rationalize it and the the GOP as a whole is shrinking?

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by yoladu

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

3 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Every mid-30’s/early 40’s white, college-educated, suburban mom I know is being very vocal about their support for Beto.  Very vocal.  I’m guessing at least 80% of them voted for Cruz last time.

My friend was surprisingly vocal considering the circumstances.

[Francisco 2.0 32,317]

Don't know if this was posted elsewhere, but this thread seemed as good as any for this.  Un-fucking-believable.

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/11/eagles-landing-cityhood-vote-atlanta-stockbridge/571990/

 

Quote

The Eagle’s Landing plan seeks to merge into its boundaries the primest real estate and wealthiest households from the city of Stockbridge, leaving behind a smaller, mostly African American population with fewer resources to pay for Stockbridge city services. The Eagle’s Landing city proposal will be voted on via ballot referendum on November 6, but Stockbridge residents who live outside the Eagle’s Landing footprint—the people who will be most hampered by the division—are not eligible to vote on it. Meanwhile, neither lawsuits nor letters from global finance agencies warning that the proposal could wreck economies across Georgia have been able to stop it.

 

Quote

And the reason for tearing Stockbridge apart to start this new city? It has something to do with cheesecake. Or at least cheesecake is what was emphasized in a conversation with Vicki Consiglio, the chair of the Committee for the City of Eagle’s Landing, held at the Eagle’s Landing Country Club.

“I serve on the Henry County zoning board,” said Consiglio, “and so I kept seeing all of these places like Bojangle’s, Waffle Houses, dollar stores, and all this going up in our county. And I was like, why can’t we get a Cheesecake Factory, or a P.F. Chang’s or a Houston’s? We have areas that have high incomes, so what’s the deal?”

Eagle’s Landing is a prestigious community that desires leisure, shopping, and dining amenities that reflect their gentry, said Consiglio. But she is convinced that won’t happen unless Stockbridge, or at least what she considers the less desirable parts of Stockbridge, are taken out of the picture. What exists both within and immediately around the country club already looks pretty posh; there is an Outback Steakhouse on the main commercial drag not far from it. But that Outback doesn’t rise to the level of the culinary opulence that Consiglio expects.

 

TL;DR.  Wealthy white gated community wishes to vote today to form their own municipality.  Only property owners within this community get to vote to leave the town they are in and form their own town.  Town they are currently in today is mostly black. 

All for a Cheesecake Factory.

[Brew 3,045]

7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Blackburn had one of the most insanely racist ads of this whole cycle. Maybe that helped her. 

 

 

That’s not even the best ad from her camp. They have been hammering ads about Bredesen covering up sexual harassment at the state level and howxwe can’t allow that at the federal level. 

[Js1 85,095]

Goal posts moved. 

 

[GSU&UT 1,798]

 

[Hawndoh 2,382]

Outback Steakhouse is posh?

[Patrick Bateman 3,903]

3 minutes ago, yoladu said:

 

you'd like to think well educated Republicans would be embarrassed by the naked racism and fear mongering in these ads?

Do you just shrug your shoulders and try to rationalize that the means justify the ends? i mean, what gymnastics do you do in order to feel good about associating with a party that does this kinda of thing routinely?

 

Yes, this is exactly what they do.  They are extremely loyal.... I guess you have to give them that?

 

[G650 14,079]

1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

All for a Cheesecake Factory.

 

DUDE THIS IS LITERALLY WHAT I HAVE BEEN FUCKING SAYING THE MIDDLE CLASS IS FUCKING KILLING THIS COUNTRY AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHADGRGRGRHRGRHR.

 

Fucking Cheesecake Factory? Fucking low rent middle America bullshit. You are a cultural fucking midget. The Waffle House is 100x better than fucking Cheesecake Factory (Not you Francisco, stupid upper middle bitch).

[NIUHuskies 504]

Eyes on Wisconsin:

Quote

At 11 a.m., with six wards yet to report, the Madison Clerk’s Office reported turnout at 29.15 percent of registered voters. The turnout number reflects some absentee ballots, which are processed throughout the day at polling places.

Madison’s mid-day turnout in 2014 was at 23 percent of registered voters and slightly higher at 25 percent in 2016, according to the clerk’s office.

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html

[G650 14,079]

2 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Outback Steakhouse is posh?

In Middle America it is.

[GSU&UT 1,798]

2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Don't know if this was posted elsewhere, but this thread seemed as good as any for this.  Un-fucking-believable.

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/11/eagles-landing-cityhood-vote-atlanta-stockbridge/571990/

 

 

 

TL;DR.  Wealthy white gated community wishes to vote today to form their own municipality.  Only property owners within this community get to vote to leave the town they are in and form their own town.  Town they are currently in today is mostly black. 

All for a Cheesecake Factory.

This is a huge fucking deal and why I have had no problem saying fuck conservatism in general (and not just the current GOP). Our governor, who got a pos rep because he's a moderate and vetoed a religious liberty bill and campus carry bill, did absolutely nothing to block this highly illegal process from taking place.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

538 still projects Texas as only 6.7MM voters, worst rate of all the states with governor races?  Is that right?  (do your own formatting.

 

Wisconsin2,707k4,344k62.3%

Maine6551,07560.9

Minnesota2,3934,05659.0

Iowa1,3242,29957.6

Colorado2,1843,95555.2

New Hampshire5751,04655.0

Florida7,06613,30053.1

Alaska27352252.3

Vermont26050152.0

Oregon1,5673,01252.0

Michigan3,8317,53050.9

South Dakota32263550.8

Connecticut1,3292,62350.7

Illinois4,5559,11050.0

Rhode Island39679449.9

Ohio4,4328,88249.9

Massachusetts2,5045,02449.8

Wyoming20141148.9

Pennsylvania4,8029,86748.7

Nebraska6551,36448.0

Maryland2,0544,31347.6

Kansas9812,08946.9

Idaho5401,18545.6

Nevada8581,92144.7

New Mexico6581,47544.6

Arizona2,0094,59843.7

Georgia2,9997,09542.3

Alabama1,4503,43142.3

Tennessee1,9254,62341.6

New York5,67913,90040.9

Oklahoma1,1342,79640.6

California10,20025,20040.5

Hawaii4041,02139.6

South Carolina1,4483,72138.9

Arkansas8432,16738.9

Texas     6,669     17,600   37.9

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

[GSU&UT 1,798]

1 minute ago, G650 said:

 

DUDE THIS IS LITERALLY WHAT I HAVE BEEN FUCKING SAYING THE MIDDLE CLASS IS FUCKING KILLING THIS COUNTRY AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHADGRGRGRHRGRHR.

 

Fucking Cheesecake Factory? Fucking low rent middle America bullshit. You are a cultural fucking midget. The Waffle House is 100x better than fucking Cheesecake Factory (Not you Francisco, stupid upper middle bitch).

My man!

[G650 14,079]

1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

My man!

WaffleHo ftw.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,408]

3 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

 

This is why you need precinct watchers to show up.  In some cases, the olds running the show is only making a mistake.  Other times they think they can decide the rules.  Either way, you want someone there to assist when the rules are not being followed.  Even up to the appoint of involving the election officials or judges.

[Huckleberry 32,694]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

538 still projects Texas as only 6.7MM voters, worst rate of all the states with governor races?  Is that right?  (do your own formatting.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

That seems crazy low. I don't see any way Texas total turnout is under 7 million.

[Brew 3,045]

24 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Dems aren’t flipping Tennessee senate race. 

Depends on turnout in Shelby, Davidson, and Williamson. They are over 1/3 of the registered voters. You have other regions that go D as well and the state representation was blue not long ago. I did my part.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

Well, this is weird.  They project 7.1MM for the senate race.  I can't believe 400,000 vote for one and not the other.

 

Texas

7,132

17,600

40.5

[Voldemort86 2,259]

5 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

Eyes on Wisconsin:

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html

Pond scum Walker in trouble?

[Brisketexan 104,548]

12 minutes ago, yoladu said:

 

you'd like to think well educated Republicans would be embarrassed by the naked racism and fear mongering in these ads?

Do you just shrug your shoulders and try to rationalize that the means justify the ends? i mean, what gymnastics do you do in order to feel good about associating with a political party that does this kinda of thing routinely?

 

or is it that fewer and fewer people can't rationalize it and the the GOP as a whole is shrinking?

 

Psssst....here's a secret that's not so secret anymore.  The curtain has been pulled back.  This is not something republicans are ashamed of or embarrassed about.  IT'S WHAT THEY ARE.  This is the real-deal GOP.  No more "political correctness."  Remember how they love folks like Trump who "says what I think!"?  That's because what they've been thinking, and USED to be afraid to say, was racist shit.  Now, they can exhale.  Finally, it's OKAY to say those things again!

There are no gymnastics.  Xenophobia and racism aren't bugs of the GOP.  They are the central feature.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,408]

After all of the drama in WI over the last few years I would be surprised if they elect Walker again.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

538 says Ds have a 1 in 5 chance at the senate.  I swear it was 1 in 6 yesterday.

[Post Oak 20,183]

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

Any of you political junkies need a gig?

http://election.princeton.edu/2018/11/06/the-princeton-gerrymandering-project-is-hiring/

[Brew 3,045]

3 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

538 says Ds have a 1 in 5 chance at the senate.  I swear it was 1 in 6 yesterday.

Article this morning was 1 in 6, so it has changed.

[Biff Tannen 45,491]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

I'm hearing Larry Schweikart is wanted in Nevada for raping goats.

[Huckleberry 32,694]

Totals through 3:00pm:

2016 - 72,093
2018 - 71,032

Edited November 6, 2018 by Huckleberry

[NIUHuskies 504]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

 

[GSU&UT 1,798]

^^

['stache 21,751]

When Georgia's voter suppression is proven they should be kicked out of the fucking union.  Cut them off with Florida and let them sink into the ocean.

[GSU&UT 1,798]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

When Georgia's voter suppression is proven they should be kicked out of the fucking union.  Cut them off with Florida and let them sink into the ocean.

How about everyone who thinks there isn't voter suppression be sent to a penal colony? Outside of violent revolution, there isn't much we can do if the courts refuse to do anything.

[Huckleberry 32,694]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

When Georgia's voter suppression is proven they should be kicked out of the fucking union.  Cut them off with Florida and let them sink into the ocean.

I've got some oceanfront property in Chatt...a...noo...ga
From my front porch you can seeeeeeeeeee the sea

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,833]

[NIUHuskies 504]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

When Georgia's voter suppression is proven they should be kicked out of the fucking union.  Cut them off with Florida and let them sink into the ocean.

You can thank the Supreme Court (looking at your Roberts!) for what is happening in Georgia today:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelby_County_v._Holder

[GopherRock 1,765]

49 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Shares of Breseden can be had for 22 cents (+430) right now...

[Pancho 44,452]

 

[HenryJames 65,886]

31 minutes ago, RayDog said:

No, on my computer.

Is your computer in your ass?

[Js1 85,095]

17 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Well, this is weird.  They project 7.1MM for the senate race.  I can't believe 400,000 vote for one and not the other.

 

Texas

7,132

17,600

40.5

I do.

Lupe sucks.

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

 

Edit: Ain't going to the game day thread. Y'all crosspost whatever you want. 

Edited November 6, 2018 by cactusflinthead

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,408]

2 minutes ago, Brew said:

Article this morning was 1 in 6, so it has changed.

They definitely moved from 85% to 81% on their classic.  Note, from a 538 podcast, they mentioned that even though the have 3 modeling processes (Lite, Classic and Deluxe), Deluxe is the one they believe is the most correct.  That one is at 82% for the GOP to retain the Senate.

And FYI, the current Senate breakdown is 51-49 GOP.   538 only gives the GOP about a 50% chance to improve on that #.   There are several scenarios that the GOP/Dem win the expected races and split NV, AZ, MO and ND.  The breakdown stays the same.   

If the breakdown remains the same or drops to 50-50, its a huge loss for the GOP.  It creates a much poorer picture for them in 2020 when the tables turn and the GOP is defending many more swing Senate seats.