2018 - Elections and Trends

[Mole 4318]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

ionic doric corinthian

Ionian, Dorian, Phrygian, Lydian, mixolydian, Aeolian, locrian. Or if you’re old school, Dorian, hypodorian...

[atomheartbevo 89362]

27 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

It’s very encouraging, but I feel like the general election has to be a little bit different simple because of how narrow his focus can be now. He knows that all of the states that he still has a positive favorability rating in he is going to win in 2020 even if he personally defecates on every member of the states, maybe Arizona excluded.  

That gives him two years to focus all of his clout on the Midwest states. I think if the economy is middling or better in those states until 2020, he wins. 

He won’t have Hillary on the ballot, and there were a small amount of people who used her to justify voting for him.  That could depress some turnout.

He will have Mueller's report, which could also depress turnout. 

He’s not winning any states that went for Hillary, including the ones in the top ten closest states that were won by less than 4 points (New Hampshire, MN, Nevada, Maine).  NH may have elected a Republican Governor, but he was very well-known, and 6 out of the last 7 presidential elections went to the Dems.  Plus, only 4 electoral votes  

Look at the six he won by less than 4 points - Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona.   He’s lost the first three, and is in the process of losing Arizona.  And Florida is in play. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

56 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

It’s very encouraging, but I feel like the general election has to be a little bit different simple because of how narrow his focus can be now. He knows that all of the states that he still has a positive favorability rating in he is going to win in 2020 even if he personally defecates on every member of the states, maybe Arizona excluded.  

That gives him two years to focus all of his clout on the Midwest states. I think if the economy is middling or better in those states until 2020, he wins. 

I have a hard time seeing trump winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan ever again.  Minnesota is possible tho.

pennsylvania seems to really hate trump. Trump winning Wisconsin seemed to turn a lot of people blue, and people in Michigan were pissed that they pretty much sat the election out and trump won by a hair. They won’t make that mistake again. Trump got extremely lucky that he was running against Clinton. She was hated by a lot of democrats and toxic to independents.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

From what I can tell, Abrams needs approximately a net of 27K votes in GA to pull Kemp to under 50% resulting in a scheduled run-off.     Seems like a lot to overcome with Fulton County is saying they have less than 5K provisional.

Abrams best chance could be a legal challenge for a recount, hoping to create a run-off as well.  I assume no one thinks a recount will give Abrams a >50% result.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3867]

15 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I have a hard time seeing trump winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan ever again.  Minnesota is possible tho.

pennsylvania seems to really hate trump. Trump winning Wisconsin seemed to turn a lot of people blue, and people in Michigan were pissed that they pretty much sat the election out and trump won by a hair. They won’t make that mistake again. Trump got extremely lucky that he was running against Clinton. She was hated by a lot of democrats and toxic to independents.

Minnesota is fairly blue. Governor, both senators, and 5 of 8 reps are Dems. Hilary won the state.

[Js1 85056]

2 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Minnesota is fairly blue. Governor, both senators, and 5 of 8 reps are Dems. Hilary won the state.

Hillary won by 1.52%.  It was extremely close.  However, 2 years later, both Senators and Governor get double digit wins, and the House vote was 55.2-43.7. 

[GopherRock 1765]

Minnesota has been GOP fools gold since 2008. Tim Pawlenty in 06 was the last Republican to win a statewide election, and Arne Carlson in 1994 was the last Republican to do that and clear 50%+1 of the vote. All but 2 Dem candidates in statewide races got more than 52%, and Ellison (the laggard of the group) got 48.9%.

It might help their cause if the GOP candidates at the top of the ticket in this state weren't complete scumbags. 

There are better GOP opportunities elsewhere. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3867]

7 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Minnesota has been GOP fools gold since 2008. Tim Pawlenty in 06 was the last Republican to win a statewide election, and Arne Carlson in 1994 was the last Republican to do that and clear 50%+1 of the vote. All but 2 Dem candidates in statewide races got more than 52%, and Ellison (the laggard of the group) got 48.9%.

It might help their cause if the GOP candidates at the top of the ticket in this state weren't complete scumbags. 

There are better GOP opportunities elsewhere. 

Add to that that your fellow gophers are very aware of their economic turnaround in contrast to what Scott Walker's policies did to neighboring Wisconsin.

Edited November 9, 2018 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Voldemort86 2259]

9 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Add to that that your fellow gophers are very aware of their economic turnaround in contrast to what Scott Walker's policies did to neighboring Wisconsin.

Pond scum Walker going down in Wisconsin was huge. We can undue all the damage he did to that state. Thankfully, The heavily GOP gerrymandered maps in Wisconsin and Michigan will soon be a thing of the past.

[WhatTheBuck 28700]

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Car dealerships can only be open one day of the weekend

Sooo...the Christian-owned ones are open on Saturday and the Jewish-owned ones are open on Sunday?

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Pond scum Walker going down in Wisconsin was huge. We can undue all the damage he did to that state. Thankfully, The heavily GOP gerrymandered maps in Wisconsin and Michigan will soon be a thing of the past.

That Foxconn stuff ain’t getting undone.  

And plenty of folks up there are acutely aware of what it’s costing them.  

[Aqua Buddha 14488]

So, Florida is going to a recount in both races but the Senate race is so close that it has to be done by hand?

[Bateshorn 9882]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

So, Florida is going to a recount in both races but the Senate race is so close that it has to be done by hand?

Yes.  They machine count then Hand count, I believe. For those saying “concede already”. Didn’t norm Coleman drag out a MN recount for months?

[Brisketexan 104462]

An interesting exit poll stat about the Beto-Cruz race: Beto had a slight lead among native Texans, Cruz had a lead among newcomers.  That is contrary to the narrative:

How long have you lived in Texas?

                                             O'Rourke    Cruz   No Answer

Born in Texas 58%                 51%          48%       1%

 

Moved to Texas 42%             42%          57%        1%

 

Thought that was interesting, particularly in terms of what it means for future demographics (folks who are moving here vs. native-born).

 

[Js1 85056]

14 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Yes.  They machine count then Hand count, I believe. For those saying “concede already”. Didn’t norm Coleman drag out a MN recount for months?

Yes. Yes he did. 

[RayDog 682]

3 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

It’s very encouraging, but I feel like the general election has to be a little bit different simple because of how narrow his focus can be now. He knows that all of the states that he still has a positive favorability rating in he is going to win in 2020 even if he personally defecates on every member of the states, maybe Arizona excluded.  

That gives him two years to focus all of his clout on the Midwest states. I think if the economy is middling or better in those states until 2020, he wins. 

The tariffs will cause a lot of pain over the next two years. And, I expect a recession too that hits the midwest and rust belt hard.

[RDCanecutter 26239]

22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

An interesting exit poll stat about the Beto-Cruz race: Beto had a slight lead among native Texans, Cruz had a lead among newcomers.

Reminds me of King of the Hill when the guy from Boston comes to visit.

If guy from Boston had stayed long enough to vote, he'd be a fake-ass cowboy with fake-ass cowboy shit tacked up all over his fake-ass gated multi-gabled McMansion, yelling (on FB) about being Texas Tough and voting for Cruz and Patrick* while commuting to an office in his fake-ass clean "work" truck.

*Goeb is the apotheosis of fake-ass arriviste faux-Texane.

[Mole 4318]

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/state-politics/kemp-vs-abrams-georgia-governor-s-race-by-the-numbers/869843797

Georgia Tech math.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13537]

18 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Reminds me of King of the Hill when the guy from Boston comes to visit.

If guy from Boston had stayed long enough to vote, he'd be a fake-ass cowboy with fake-ass cowboy shit tacked up all over his fake-ass gated multi-gabled McMansion, yelling (on FB) about being Texas Tough and voting for Cruz and Patrick* while commuting to an office in his fake-ass clean "work" truck.

*Goeb is the apotheosis of fake-ass arriviste faux-Texane.

Knew a transplant from work years ago who would not shut up about "TexasTexasTexasEverything'sBiggerInTexas".

He was from Cleveland.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

An interesting exit poll stat about the Beto-Cruz race: Beto had a slight lead among native Texans, Cruz had a lead among newcomers.  That is contrary to the narrative:

How long have you lived in Texas?

                                             O'Rourke    Cruz   No Answer

Born in Texas 58%                 51%          48%       1%

 

Moved to Texas 42%             42%          57%        1%

 

Thought that was interesting, particularly in terms of what it means for future demographics (folks who are moving here vs. native-born).

 

If somebody moved to Texas for work in the late 70s or 80s due to oil, they would most likely be late 50s and older.   That’s not counting all of the folks who moved here after that for O&G.  That industry is pretty conservative in places. Lot of olds voted for Cruz. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If somebody moved to Texas for work in the late 70s or 80s due to oil, they would most likely be late 50s and older.   That’s not counting all of the folks who moved here after that for O&G.  That industry is pretty conservative in places. Lot of olds voted for Cruz. 

Lots of Louisiana people move to Texas.  They usually suck.

[Mack Tripper 693]

If somebody moved to Texas for work in the late 70s or 80s due to oil, they would most likely be late 50s and older.

This. The population has doubled since 1980 from 14MM to 28MM.

[Tuco 5076]

An interesting exit poll stat about the Beto-Cruz race: Beto had a slight lead among native Texans, Cruz had a lead among newcomers.  That is contrary to the narrative:
How long have you lived in Texas?
                                             O'Rourke    Cruz   No Answer
Born in Texas 58%                 51%          48%       1%
 
Moved to Texas 42%             42%          57%        1%
 
Thought that was interesting, particularly in terms of what it means for future demographics (folks who are moving here vs. native-born).
 

That could be an age correlation.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Yes.  They machine count then Hand count, I believe. For those saying “concede already”. Didn’t norm Coleman drag out a MN recount for months?

Hell, Roy Moore STILL hasn’t conceded.

He’s still waiting for Moses to come down from Mount Cheeha with the real results on stone tablets or some shit.

[Js1 85056]

You mean Mount Heehaw?

[Bama Chick 28596]

That would be a great pun but the other is the highest “mountain” in Alabama so I went local instead of biblical.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13537]

16 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 

Hell, Roy Moore STILL hasn’t conceded.

He’s still waiting for Moses to come down from Mount Cheeha with the real results on stone tablets or some shit.

 

Moore is Buford T Justice bouncing what's left of his patrol car over a curb and ordering Jr "Arrest that man for electoral blasphemy!"

[4Pete 156]

2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

Reminds me of King of the Hill when the guy from Boston comes to visit.

If guy from Boston had stayed long enough to vote, he'd be a fake-ass cowboy with fake-ass cowboy shit tacked up all over his fake-ass gated multi-gabled McMansion, yelling (on FB) about being Texas Tough and voting for Cruz and Patrick* while commuting to an office in his fake-ass clean "work" truck.

*Goeb is the apotheosis of fake-ass arriviste faux-Texane.

I hate old Danny as much as I hate Rafael.  They can both burn in carpetbagger hell.

[bolverk 29359]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

An interesting exit poll stat about the Beto-Cruz race: Beto had a slight lead among native Texans, Cruz had a lead among newcomers.  That is contrary to the narrative:

How long have you lived in Texas?

                                             O'Rourke    Cruz   No Answer

Born in Texas 58%                 51%          48%       1%

 

Moved to Texas 42%             42%          57%        1%

 

Thought that was interesting, particularly in terms of what it means for future demographics (folks who are moving here vs. native-born).

 

Please, please, please, provide me with a link to that, because I've gotten some shit about "true Texans" versus "carpetbaggers" on this.

[Stringer 1436]

Towards the bottom here.  But fake news per Trump (CNN):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/senate

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

4 minutes ago, Stringer said:

Towards the bottom here.  But fake news per Trump (CNN):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/senate

Hmmm.  Says 58% of Texas voters were born in GA.  Can we build a wall to stop the rest of them. 

[Brisketexan 104462]

That could be an age correlation.

That’s actually a pretty sound hypothesis.

[NBMisha 224]

As was the Lousiana connection

 

 

[Bateshorn 9882]

11 hours ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Knew a transplant from work years ago who would not shut up about "TexasTexasTexasEverything'sBiggerInTexas".

He was from Cleveland.

People out East always seem shocked when I say I’m from Texas. 

Um, I’m from Westlake and my family is multi generation West Austin.  We aren’t all Hank Hill, friendo.

[Pancho 44358]

 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

People out East always seem shocked when I say I’m from Texas. 

Um, I’m from Westlake and my family is multi generation West Austin.  We aren’t all Hank Hill, friendo.

Whatever you say, Hank.

[Anastasis 23375]

"People out East" are fucking idiots. 

[NBMisha 224]

Neither looking and sounding like one is from Texas, nor the converse, are badges of honor.  The whole idea is stupid.  

[Biff Tannen 45477]

24 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

"People out East" are fucking idiots. 

I'm pretty sure everyone from everywhere are fucking idiots these days.  That's why we're in this nightmare.

[Anastasis 23375]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I'm pretty sure everyone from everywhere are fucking idiots these days.  That's why we're in this nightmare.

[Post Oak 20182]

Well this is certainly a fucking trend.

 

 

 

 

[Gengs1 2583]

2 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Well this is certainly a fucking trend.

 

 

 

 

Strike while the iron is hot, thoughts and prayers used to be old motto 

[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

Does the NRA give grades other than A or F? You're either with them or against them, right?

[Steamboat1874 4031]

Not sure I buy that poll where the majority of people that are not native Texans voted red.

One of the fastest growing counties in the US is Williamson and it went blue for the first time that I can ever remember.

[bad_teammate 13125]

1 minute ago, Steamboat1874 said:

Not sure I buy that poll where the majority of people that are not native Texans voted red.

I'm sure you don't, bud.

Texas is full of transplants. It's common for this Austin-centric board to focus on CALIFORNIA LIBS, but I know plenty of very conservative non-natives both in high-paying positions and low-paying positions here in Houston, so you can only imagine what it's like across the entire state. There are a lot of jobs in Texas, and 99% of them ain't paying $150k/year.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

While we SHOULD tackle the mass shooting epidemic, this is an area the Dems have to work with trump and not dictate terms. Even if that means accomplishing much less than desired.    

[Aqua Buddha 14488]

24 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Does the NRA give grades other than A or F? You're either with them or against them, right?

I was going to ask that.  Don't all Republicans have an A rating?

[Aqua Buddha 14488]

Gov. Hot Wheels rolls into the fray.  (Note how he says "I can't verify if this is accurate" yet he posted it anyway.)

What's the scandal here?  If he has a photo ID and is registered, he can vote.

 

[Post Oak 20182]

 

6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Gov. Hot Wheels rolls into the fray.  (Note how he says "I can't verify if this is accurate" yet he posted it anyway.)

What's the scandal here?  If he has a photo ID and is registered, he can vote.

 

Can you stop being a pandering knob for once?  Just once.  You portable fuck

Edited November 10, 2018 by Post Oak

[FondrenRoad 4378]

23 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

Not sure I buy that poll where the majority of people that are not native Texans voted red.

One of the fastest growing counties in the US is Williamson and it went blue for the first time that I can ever remember.

The 70s oil boom brought a lot of folks over from MS, LA, and AL.  Those folks are now the old people who are in Ted Cruz' wheelhouse. Meanwhile all their kids are Texas born and either Gen X or millennials which are in Beto's wheelhouse.

A lot is made of recent foreign immigrants, most of whom are not yet eligible to vote, and who don't turn out very well when they are eligible.   And also of California immigrants who aren't yet as numerous as the oil boomers, and probably aren't all that likely to vote yet either.  Also, while CA immigrants are noticeable in Austin, the bulk of the internal migration to Texas still comes from the Deep South where GOP voters can still be found among young people.