2018 - Elections and Trends

[Vein 114]

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-brenda-snipes-resigns-20181118-story.html

Brenda Snipes submits resignation as Broward elections supervisor.

Bye bye. She was making 12k a month for that job. Unbelievable. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

It's hard to fathom that another bad forida ballot design has cost Democrat an election.

[Js1 87178]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's hard to fathom that another bad forida ballot design has cost Democrat an election.

Really?

When it comes to Florida, there's nothing that can be fathomed.  Bath salts, man.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's hard to fathom that another bad forida ballot design has cost Democrat an election.

Bad Florida ballot ??  Hell the commissioner in Broward co. had people working over time filling out those things.....

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

On 11/17/2018 at 11:56 AM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I honestly believe the next conservative movement of significance will be a progressive Republican movement.  

Because it’s the only way they are ever going gain power again after Trumpism. 

I think it will happen in the next 10-15 years. Baby Boomers are dying.  

[Bateshorn 9991]

Look at Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan.  Most people like the idea of a moderate GOP executive.  Unfortunately, most people aren't most voters.

[NBMisha 224]

But I'm not dead yet!  (M Python accent)

[Js1 87178]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Look at Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan.  Most people like the idea of a moderate GOP executive.  Unfortunately, most people aren't most voters.

Also Phil Scott and Chris Sununu.  Conventional wisdom would say the GOP's future should look more like the New England governors but they'll just be assailed as "Romney 2.0" when compared to 2024 front-runners Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Look at Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan.  Most people like the idea of a moderate GOP executive.  Unfortunately, most people aren't most voters.

They will be soon enough.  If we do not address fiscal policy, this country is fucked.  

[Js1 87178]

Sounds like Kyl might stick around until the 2020 election as interim Senator.  Meaning no further appointments.  No one will have incumbency in that 2020 Special Election for McCain's seat (2 years left; they have to run for a full 6 years in 2022).

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/news/kyl-planning-on-staying-put-in-senate/article_76c1d2fe-eb39-11e8-9265-efe49c0fb603.html

I bet McSally was banking on an interim appointment in 2019 so she could have incumbency before defending the seat in 2020.  Now it looks like it will be an open race.

Edited November 19, 2018 by Js1

[gmr548 16695]

Look at Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan.  Most people like the idea of a moderate GOP executive.  Unfortunately, most people aren't most voters.

I'm pretty liberal, and in fantasyland I'd be pretty happy with a liberal legislature and a moderate executive. Extended periods of one party rule don't end well and I think that combo produces the most productive compromises. MD and MA look pretty well run from an outsider's point of view. Thing is, the Hogans and Bakers of the world are basically barred from the GOP at this point

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[gmr548 16695]

Deleted double post.

 

 

 

[HouTex 1939]

On 11/17/2018 at 1:42 AM, Gil Bang said:

Biggest dem midterm since watergate. Elephant out in front shoulda told ya.

But not even close to the worst loss by the sitting president's party since Watergate or even WWII  Per the Wiki  "since WWII the President's party has lost an average 26 seats in the House, and an average four seats in the Senate."  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election

Here are the some of the worst losses since WWII in the House.

1946 (Truman) Dems lost 46 seats in the House

1958 (Ike)  Reps lost 48 seats in the House

1966 (LBJ) Dems lost 47 seats in the House

1974 (Ford) Reps lost 48 seats in the House

1994 (Clinton) Dems lost 54 seats in the House.

2010 (Obama) Dems lost 63 seats in the House.

The wiki says that Reps will lose between 37-32 in the House and now they will gain 2 in the Senate.  So net losses of 35-30 for both houses of Congress.  Just above the average loss.  Y'all want to call that a Blue Wave, go ahead.  

 

 

[Agent47 157]

Given gerrymandering and cheating, and governors and state legislatures, and Trump's Great Depression since, yes it was a blue wave.

[Js1 87178]

32 minutes ago, HouTex said:

But not even close to the worst loss by the sitting president's party since Watergate or even WWII  Per the Wiki  "since WWII the President's party has lost an average 26 seats in the House, and an average four seats in the Senate."  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election

Here are the some of the worst losses since WWII in the House.

1946 (Truman) Dems lost 46 seats in the House

1958 (Ike)  Reps lost 48 seats in the House

1966 (LBJ) Dems lost 47 seats in the House

1974 (Ford) Reps lost 48 seats in the House

1994 (Clinton) Dems lost 54 seats in the House.

2010 (Obama) Dems lost 63 seats in the House.

The wiki says that Reps will lose between 37-32 in the House and now they will gain 2 in the Senate.  So net losses of 35-30 for both houses of Congress.  Just above the average loss.  Y'all want to call that a Blue Wave, go ahead.  

 

 

Negged for bad talking points. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Sounds like Kyl might stick around until the 2020 election as interim Senator.  Meaning no further appointments.  No one will have incumbency in that 2020 Special Election for McCain's seat (2 years left; they have to run for a full 6 years in 2022).

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/news/kyl-planning-on-staying-put-in-senate/article_76c1d2fe-eb39-11e8-9265-efe49c0fb603.html

I bet McSally was banking on an interim appointment in 2019 so she could have incumbency before defending the seat in 2020.  Now it looks like it will be an open race.

I thought I read somewhere that Ducey isn't a McSally fan.  But I could have imagined that and I'm too lazy to google it.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I thought I read somewhere that Ducey isn't a McSally fan.  But I could have imagined that and I'm too lazy to google it.

Not surprising. It seems like most of the state of Arizona aren’t mcsally fans. Ducey crushed it in his race and mcsally lost. 

[Goredho 17652]

On 11/15/2018 at 8:48 PM, cactusflinthead said:

 

Throw a bucket of water on that hideous bitch and watch her melt.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Not sure if dog whistle or racist bitch.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

18 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Not sure if dog whistle or racist bitch.

 

She’s a dumb skank. I hate her.

Edited November 19, 2018 by Voldemort86

[Bama Chick 28596]

Not sure if dog whistle or racist bitch.

whynotboth.gif

[Pancho 46299]

 

[Js1 87178]

McAdams just took the lead again over Mia Love 

[Js1 87178]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3871]

538 is pretty pretty good. 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

 

 

[Post Oak 20560]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

She’s a dumb skank. I hate her.

There's no way her name hasn't come up in the Mueller investigation

[SubliminalHorn 7009]

5 hours ago, HouTex said:

  Y'all want to call that a Blue Wave, go ahead.  

 

 

Ok, we will. Trumpism was rebuked soundly in the House. 

[Js1 87178]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3871]

I don’t know what I’m supposed to do with this information. 

[Js1 87178]

5 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

I thought I read somewhere that Ducey isn't a McSally fan.  But I could have imagined that and I'm too lazy to google it.

You’re desperate, honey 

 

[gmr548 16695]

1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

538 is pretty pretty good. 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

 

 

BuT tHeY oNlY gAvE tRuMp 3o PeRcEnT!1!1!1!

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

You’re desperate, honey 

 

I guess it’s about getting her some experience and letting her have a voting record for 2020. The repubs want to have something they can point too which overrides or takes attention away from her doing a shity job in the house.

Edited November 20, 2018 by Voldemort86

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

Them appointing McSally would almost guarantee a Democratic pickup in 2020.

[Js1 87178]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/us/politics/mississippi-senate-election-cindy-hyde-smith-espy.html

GOP poll showed the run-off as a 5-point edge for Hyde Smith.  Trump is showing up.  When he came to Texas, he dropped Cruz's lead by 5 points in private polling.  I hope he shows up in Mississippi twice.

[Ted Lange 16410]

 

[kevwun 16437]

The only reason it wasn't a blue tsunami is because of gerrymandered districts.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

18 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Not sure if dog whistle or racist bitch.

 

Not sure why Romney's niece still has this job.   You could make an argument that if the GOP national party had done next-to-nothing in this election, the results would pretty much be the same:  retain Senate, lose the House.  Perhaps they protected a couple of Senate seats or held onto a few additional House seats but it's not easy to prove that.  

She seems ineffective.  Take that tweet.  How many people in MS actually were following her on Twitter, planning to vote for Espy but now decided to switch to Hyde-Smith?  My guess is zero.    She did do a bad job of throwing Espy's name out twice before mentioning her candidate's name.  Or actually only her twitter handle.    But I guess the point of this tweet is to show Trump that she did something.

 

[Mdhorn 6166]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

The only reason it wasn't a blue tsunami is because of gerrymandered districts.

It certainly takes a wave to get over those walls.  Mf'ers act like it's not a barrier when comparing stats with previous years.  Look at the turnout it took to get over it and yet still, in places they were openly disenfranchised.  They try to argue ID like it stops there. 

[Ted Lange 16410]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

 

I can’t wait for the next round of redistricting.

 

nowhere to go but up, and we have some key governorships that will protect us. It’s likely that all of those states will have democratic governors when the maps are redrawn.

Edited November 20, 2018 by Voldemort86

[Biff Tannen 46163]

2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

 

That's what a failing democracy looks like.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3871]

21 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I can’t wait for the next round of redistricting.

 

nowhere to go but up, and we have some key governorships that will protect us. It’s likely that all of those states will have democratic governors when the maps are redrawn.

Michigan seems to be the key one.  It is both gerrymandered toward R and flipped governor to D.  Illinois flipped, but it wasn't gerrymandered against D.  Some flipped that just don't have enough people to matter in gerrymandering:  NM, NV, KS

[Bama Chick 28596]

Man, Wisconsin GOP are some bitches.

At least the others are kind of close.

[RayDog 682]

I am hopeful that undoing the gerrymandering in 2021 will help the Democrats minimize loses in 2022 even though it is the first midterm of a new Democratic president.

[Agent47 157]

Repubs are cheating skunks.

[Js1 87178]

Outside the recount margin by 21 votes lol

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

Trump May have been right about Love declining the trump embrace. May have given her a thousand votes.   Republican politicians have a dilemma for 2020 in accepting or declining the trump love. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Michigan seems to be the key one.  It is both gerrymandered toward R and flipped governor to D.  Illinois flipped, but it wasn't gerrymandered against D.  Some flipped that just don't have enough people to matter in gerrymandering:  NM, NV, KS

Don’t overlook Wisconsin. “Pond Scum” Walker and his republican dingleberries dominated Wisconsin on statewide level despite the state almost always voting for a democratic president.

the map will be much more favorable in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia for sure. 

We need to win North Carolina Governor because that state has 13 US house seats. We got about 50% of the statewide vote and only got 3 seats. That map is probably the worst in the country now.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Voldemort86

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

 

[cactusflinthead 27627]