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2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Js1

Js1 85085

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's hard to fathom that another bad forida ballot design has cost Democrat an election.

Really?

When it comes to Florida, there's nothing that can be fathomed.  Bath salts, man.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

Posted
Posted
On 11/17/2018 at 11:56 AM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I honestly believe the next conservative movement of significance will be a progressive Republican movement.  

Because it’s the only way they are ever going gain power again after Trumpism. 

I think it will happen in the next 10-15 years. Baby Boomers are dying.  

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Js1

Js1 85085

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Look at Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan.  Most people like the idea of a moderate GOP executive.  Unfortunately, most people aren't most voters.

Also Phil Scott and Chris Sununu.  Conventional wisdom would say the GOP's future should look more like the New England governors but they'll just be assailed as "Romney 2.0" when compared to 2024 front-runners Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp

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Js1

Js1 85085

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sounds like Kyl might stick around until the 2020 election as interim Senator.  Meaning no further appointments.  No one will have incumbency in that 2020 Special Election for McCain's seat (2 years left; they have to run for a full 6 years in 2022).

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/news/kyl-planning-on-staying-put-in-senate/article_76c1d2fe-eb39-11e8-9265-efe49c0fb603.html

I bet McSally was banking on an interim appointment in 2019 so she could have incumbency before defending the seat in 2020.  Now it looks like it will be an open race.

Edited by Js1
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gmr548

gmr548 16481

Posted
Posted
Look at Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan.  Most people like the idea of a moderate GOP executive.  Unfortunately, most people aren't most voters.
I'm pretty liberal, and in fantasyland I'd be pretty happy with a liberal legislature and a moderate executive. Extended periods of one party rule don't end well and I think that combo produces the most productive compromises. MD and MA look pretty well run from an outsider's point of view. Thing is, the Hogans and Bakers of the world are basically barred from the GOP at this point

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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HouTex

HouTex 1850

Posted
Posted
On 11/17/2018 at 1:42 AM, Gil Bang said:


Biggest dem midterm since watergate. Elephant out in front shoulda told ya.

But not even close to the worst loss by the sitting president's party since Watergate or even WWII  Per the Wiki  "since WWII the President's party has lost an average 26 seats in the House, and an average four seats in the Senate."  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election

Here are the some of the worst losses since WWII in the House.

1946 (Truman) Dems lost 46 seats in the House

1958 (Ike)  Reps lost 48 seats in the House

1966 (LBJ) Dems lost 47 seats in the House

1974 (Ford) Reps lost 48 seats in the House

1994 (Clinton) Dems lost 54 seats in the House.

2010 (Obama) Dems lost 63 seats in the House.

The wiki says that Reps will lose between 37-32 in the House and now they will gain 2 in the Senate.  So net losses of 35-30 for both houses of Congress.  Just above the average loss.  Y'all want to call that a Blue Wave, go ahead.  

 

 

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Js1

Js1 85085

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, HouTex said:

But not even close to the worst loss by the sitting president's party since Watergate or even WWII  Per the Wiki  "since WWII the President's party has lost an average 26 seats in the House, and an average four seats in the Senate."  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election

Here are the some of the worst losses since WWII in the House.

1946 (Truman) Dems lost 46 seats in the House

1958 (Ike)  Reps lost 48 seats in the House

1966 (LBJ) Dems lost 47 seats in the House

1974 (Ford) Reps lost 48 seats in the House

1994 (Clinton) Dems lost 54 seats in the House.

2010 (Obama) Dems lost 63 seats in the House.

The wiki says that Reps will lose between 37-32 in the House and now they will gain 2 in the Senate.  So net losses of 35-30 for both houses of Congress.  Just above the average loss.  Y'all want to call that a Blue Wave, go ahead.  

 

 

Negged for bad talking points. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9897

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Sounds like Kyl might stick around until the 2020 election as interim Senator.  Meaning no further appointments.  No one will have incumbency in that 2020 Special Election for McCain's seat (2 years left; they have to run for a full 6 years in 2022).

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/news/kyl-planning-on-staying-put-in-senate/article_76c1d2fe-eb39-11e8-9265-efe49c0fb603.html

I bet McSally was banking on an interim appointment in 2019 so she could have incumbency before defending the seat in 2020.  Now it looks like it will be an open race.

I thought I read somewhere that Ducey isn't a McSally fan.  But I could have imagined that and I'm too lazy to google it.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

You’re desperate, honey 

 

I guess it’s about getting her some experience and letting her have a voting record for 2020. The repubs want to have something they can point too which overrides or takes attention away from her doing a shity job in the house.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13406

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Not sure if dog whistle or racist bitch.

 

Not sure why Romney's niece still has this job.   You could make an argument that if the GOP national party had done next-to-nothing in this election, the results would pretty much be the same:  retain Senate, lose the House.  Perhaps they protected a couple of Senate seats or held onto a few additional House seats but it's not easy to prove that.  

She seems ineffective.  Take that tweet.  How many people in MS actually were following her on Twitter, planning to vote for Espy but now decided to switch to Hyde-Smith?  My guess is zero.    She did do a bad job of throwing Espy's name out twice before mentioning her candidate's name.  Or actually only her twitter handle.    But I guess the point of this tweet is to show Trump that she did something.

 

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5910

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, kevwun said:

The only reason it wasn't a blue tsunami is because of gerrymandered districts.

It certainly takes a wave to get over those walls.  Mf'ers act like it's not a barrier when comparing stats with previous years.  Look at the turnout it took to get over it and yet still, in places they were openly disenfranchised.  They try to argue ID like it stops there. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

 

I can’t wait for the next round of redistricting.

 

nowhere to go but up, and we have some key governorships that will protect us. It’s likely that all of those states will have democratic governors when the maps are redrawn.

Edited by Voldemort86
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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I can’t wait for the next round of redistricting.

 

nowhere to go but up, and we have some key governorships that will protect us. It’s likely that all of those states will have democratic governors when the maps are redrawn.

Michigan seems to be the key one.  It is both gerrymandered toward R and flipped governor to D.  Illinois flipped, but it wasn't gerrymandered against D.  Some flipped that just don't have enough people to matter in gerrymandering:  NM, NV, KS

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Michigan seems to be the key one.  It is both gerrymandered toward R and flipped governor to D.  Illinois flipped, but it wasn't gerrymandered against D.  Some flipped that just don't have enough people to matter in gerrymandering:  NM, NV, KS

Don’t overlook Wisconsin. “Pond Scum” Walker and his republican dingleberries dominated Wisconsin on statewide level despite the state almost always voting for a democratic president.

the map will be much more favorable in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia for sure. 

We need to win North Carolina Governor because that state has 13 US house seats. We got about 50% of the statewide vote and only got 3 seats. That map is probably the worst in the country now.

Edited by Voldemort86
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