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2018 - Elections and Trends

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

Posted
Posted
On 12/10/2018 at 8:10 PM, bolverk said:

44% of districts with 48% of the vote. Even with as gerrymandered as Texas is, that's mighty impressive. My own, TX-21, shows the outcome to be 49.6% (Cruz) to 49.5% (Beto) which stretches out from liberal Central and South Austin to the uber-conservative Hill Country and traditionally country club Republican Alamo Heights was within a hair's margin.

I'm in TX-10 and a little surprised it went to Beto, but not that it was close. That district is a tiny sliver of Travis County, the aggy part of NW Harris County, and a lot of BFE. Our house election was actually close-ish, despite it not being high profile and McCaul being a well-entrenched Republican. The extension of the Austin area into Bastrop County is going to bust that gerrymander soon. The aggy part of NW Harris County kept it red this time around, but the little sliver of Travis County the GOP tried to disenfranchise with that district damn near dragged the district into blue terriroty on its own. As Bastrop Country, and I would think the even the aforementioned portion of Harris County in the district start to trend more purple, there won't be the votes to make up for even that small portion of Travis. A lot of those districts with little chunks of Austin and the surrounding area could see the same as the metro area expands.

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Bozo_Casanova
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13509

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I'm in TX-10 and a little surprised it went to Beto, but not that it was close. That district is a tiny sliver of Travis County, the aggy part of NW Harris County, and a lot of BFE. Our house election was actually close-ish, despite it not being high profile and McCaul being a well-entrenched Republican. The extension of the Austin area into Bastrop County is going to bust that gerrymander soon. The aggy part of NW Harris County kept it red this time around, but the little sliver of Travis County the GOP tried to disenfranchise with that district damn near dragged the district into blue terriroty on its own. As Bastrop Country, and I would think the even the aforementioned portion of Harris County in the district start to trend more purple, there won't be the votes to make up for even that small portion of Travis. A lot of those districts with little chunks of Austin and the surrounding area could see the same as the metro area expands.

The 2020 gerrymandering will be a tough job.  Some consultants will make a fortune from the gop to analyze neighborhood-by-neighborhood or block-by-block on how to crack cityvoters to dilute them with rural voters.   And it won’t just be about what is occurring that day but growth trends for the next 10 years. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The 2020 gerrymandering will be a tough job.  Some consultants will make a fortune from the gop to analyze neighborhood-by-neighborhood or block-by-block on how to crack cityvoters to dilute them with rural voters.   And it won’t just be about what is occurring that day but growth trends for the next 10 years. 

There are already programs written that do this and aren't as expensive as consultants.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13509

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Posted

How in the world is McSally the preferred nominee appointee for McCain's/Kyl's Senate seat? 

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/jon-kyl-resignation-arizona-senate/index.html 

It's a joke if someone serves 2 years as Senator after the voters rejected her.   McSally should be considered the least likely candidate to serve.  The remaining 7 million Arizonans didn't recently lose so they all would be a better fit.  Pick one of them.

Not to mention that Arizona should have been forced to hold an election in November for this seat.  No one should get a 2+ year appointment to the Senate.  Kyl shouldn't have gotten it in the first place.

I'm surprised that Cindy McCain just doesn't take the seat.  There is no way the governor could say no if she made that request publicly.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

Posted
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4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

How in the world is McSally the preferred nominee appointee for McCain's/Kyl's Senate seat? 

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/jon-kyl-resignation-arizona-senate/index.html 

It's a joke if someone serves 2 years as Senator after the voters rejected her.   McSally should be considered the least likely candidate to serve.  The remaining 7 million Arizonans didn't recently lose so they all would be a better fit.  Pick one of them.

Not to mention that Arizona should have been forced to hold an election in November for this seat.  No one should get a 2+ year appointment to the Senate.  Kyl shouldn't have gotten it in the first place.

I'm surprised that Cindy McCain just doesn't take the seat.  There is no way the governor could say no if she made that request publicly.

It's like they're trying to hand that seat to a Democrat.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

How in the world is McSally the preferred nominee appointee for McCain's/Kyl's Senate seat? 

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/jon-kyl-resignation-arizona-senate/index.html 

It's a joke if someone serves 2 years as Senator after the voters rejected her.   McSally should be considered the least likely candidate to serve.  The remaining 7 million Arizonans didn't recently lose so they all would be a better fit.  Pick one of them.

Not to mention that Arizona should have been forced to hold an election in November for this seat.  No one should get a 2+ year appointment to the Senate.  Kyl shouldn't have gotten it in the first place.

I'm surprised that Cindy McCain just doesn't take the seat.  There is no way the governor could say no if she made that request publicly.

I don’t mind it.

mcstinky getting the seat for 2 years will make it easier for a democrat to win it in 2020. A lot of people in Arizona can’t stand her. Look at the disparity in voter support between Doug douchey and mcstinky.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Walker is on the list for interior. As is Heller. Losers associate with losers. 

I’d rather see heller. 

 

“Pond scum” Walker is the slimiest dirtiest politician I’ve ever seen. I don’t want him anywhere near trumps administration. He’d make a piece of shit even shittier.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
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9 hours ago, Js1 said:

Voters love when you spit in their eye. With AZ rejecting Trumpism a month ago, I think this is pretty temporary 

 

Rumor has it that turtle boy McConnell thinks she’s awesome and was lobbying hard behind the scenes to get her appointed.

 

mcstinky has a tough road ahead. She has to win an election in 2020 ( right to finish McCain’s term) and 2022 ( end of McCain’s term).

thankfully, Sinema will be sworn in as first female Arizona Senator ever before mcstinky and sinema will also be the senior senator. She deserves it because she won.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13509

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26 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Rumor has it that turtle boy McConnell thinks she’s awesome and was lobbying hard behind the scenes to get her appointed.

 

mcstinky has a tough road ahead. She has to win an election in 2020 ( right to finish McCain’s term) and 2022 ( end of McCain’s term).

thankfully, Sinema will be sworn in as first female Arizona Senator ever before mcstinky and sinema will also be the senior senator. She deserves it because she won.

Why wouldn't they swear in McSally first?  Didn't Kyl say he's gone at the end of the year?  Flake is there until Jan 3rd.   Wouldn't shock me if McConnell allows McSally to go first.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

There has to be some reason for him to appoint her. I can't believe it would have to do with electability. 

Incumbency gives McSally strength against Kelli Ward, Joe Arpaio, or embarrassing candidate X in a hypothetical 2020 primary. In a tough 2020 environment, the last thing the state and national GOP wants is another shit show primary, especially after the perceived damage it caused in 2018.

She is going to get primaried anyway and it is going to be hilarious.

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Js1

Js1 85289

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Why wouldn't they swear in McSally first?  Didn't Kyl say he's gone at the end of the year?  Flake is there until Jan 3rd.   Wouldn't shock me if McConnell allows McSally to go first.

Mcsally will be sworn in first 

some people think Ducey picked her knowing she could easily lose in 2020, allowing him to run in 2022 for the seat. If he runs in 2020 or appointed himself, a D would become governor. Pick the weakest possible choice, wait until she loses and then run yourself in what could be a more favorable cycle (2022 under a D president)

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Dertyberd

Dertyberd 394

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Nothing shocking, but just the official news that Trump has completed his takeover of the Republican brand.  The RNC is now under the Trump umbrella for 2020.  It's mind-blowing how fast he moved on them like bitches.  If you don't actually stand for something you might fall and break a hip, or just get out conned by a better con man.  

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/18/trump-machine-swallows-rnc-1067875

Quote

Under the plan, which has been in the works for several weeks, the Trump reelection campaign and the RNC will merge their field and fundraising programs into a joint outfit dubbed Trump Victory. The two teams will also share office space rather than operate out of separate buildings, as has been custom.

The goal is to create a single, seamless organization that moves quickly, saves resources, and — perhaps most crucially — minimizes staff overlap and the kind of infighting that marked the 2016 relationship between the Trump campaign and the party. 

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89629

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/19/politics/kansas-legislature-republican-democrat/index.html

Quote

Two state lawmakers in Kansas announced on Wednesday that they would be switching their political party -- from Republican to Democratic. 

In separate Facebook posts, state Rep. Stephanie Clayton and state Sen. Dinah Sykes said they would now be serving as Democrats in the state Legislature. 

Last Wednesday, Kansas state Sen. Barbara Bollier also had announced she would be leaving the Republican Party and would come back in 2019 as a Democrat. 

"Leaders in the Kansas House and Senate have now indicated that they will seek to scrap the bipartisan education plan achieved over the last two years, just as we are so close to solving this problem and ending the cycle of school litigation," said Clayton, who is identified in the post as a "lifelong Republican." "My Republican Party, then, seems to no longer represent or serve the interests of the 19th District, Johnson County, or the State of Kansas."

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13509

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Dertyberd said:

Nothing shocking, but just the official news that Trump has completed his takeover of the Republican brand.  The RNC is now under the Trump umbrella for 2020.  It's mind-blowing how fast he moved on them like bitches.  If you don't actually stand for something you might fall and break a hip, or just get out conned by a better con man.  

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/18/trump-machine-swallows-rnc-1067875

 

Gotta hand it to trump, he bullied every republican into submission.  Now 0 republicans have the courage to stand up against him publicly.  He also put people in roles that support him not the gop.    So why wouldn’t the republican and trump brand be synonymous now.  

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Dennis Taylor

Dennis Taylor 18809

Posted
Posted
On 10/21/2018 at 1:59 PM, Voldemort86 said:

I think there’s a debate between Gillum and Detrumpis tonight on CNN. I hope Gillum is ready because Detrumpis is going to try and make him look like a “scary” far left radical. Hopefully he has a good answer prepared for wanting to impeach President trump because that’s probably his most controversial viewpoint.

I believe the phrase is "Things not going well for..."

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/man-found-with-gillum-at-south-beach-hotel-room-is-openly-gay/

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