2018 - Elections and Trends

[Js1 85056]

27 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Hope you're right, but for over two years now I've been saying there's no way Trump or anyone he backs could win. Been disappointed more times than not. 

Turnout in the heavy R parts were down a lot. It was a v gerrymandered seat and they eeked it out. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Quote

NATE SILVER

10:37 PM

A not-crazy scenario is that provisional ballots will lower Balderson’s margin below 0.5 percentage points, which (if I’m reading the law right) will trigger an automatic recount in Ohio — then Balderson wins the recount because recounts rarely reverse results unless it’s really, really close

Would be funny if a recount was triggered and they found some shenanigans.  Don’t think it will happen though - why risk anything here in August that would put them in alert in November. 

[Js1 85056]

this is why you can’t trust “disillusioned” republicans. They’ll go running back to the non-Trump R to keep their skin in the game 

 

Edited August 8, 2018 by Js1

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

And trump is tweeting....thanking trump for the victory

[Js1 85056]

PoLlS r WrOnG iTs A rEd WaVe lol

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3867]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Would be funny if a recount was triggered and they found some shenanigans.  Don’t think it will happen though - why risk anything here in August that would put them in alert in November. 

It would also be funny if it ate up 45 days of his 4 month term* figuring it out.

* assumes that O'Connor wins in 13 weeks when it is a regular election turnout. 

Edited August 8, 2018 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Ghost of LL 15348]

This dumb fuck has to read his victory speech. Pathetic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mo Horn 8795]

Shocker

[Js1 85056]

Lmao right. Fucking dumbass is a bigger retard than Swam. 

[Js1 85056]

Bernie and aoc’s Chosen candidate didn’t win so..... Republicans can stop acting like she’s going to make America socialist or something. 

[Orca of Peace 109]

200,000 aggregate votes is a lot for a Rep position, which IIRC has a constituency of 800k right? 

[Brisketexan 104465]

 

Fucking sick of this shit. Outperforming the typical margin is pointless. Win.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Fucking sick of this shit. Outperforming the typical margin is pointless. Win.

She is sooooo awful a spokesperson. It’s comically bad but at the same time frightening that this is how the GOP operates now.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3867]

Balderson presently has a ~1,700 vote lead.  There are 8,500 provisional ballots to sort and count. If that brings the margin of victory to .5% or less it triggers an automatic recount under Ohio law.

[GSU&UT 1798]

34 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Balderson presently has a ~1,700 vote lead.  There are 8,500 provisional ballots to sort and count. If that brings the margin of victory to .5% or less it triggers an automatic recount under Ohio law.

Where did you see that number reported for provisionals?

Also LOL at poor snowflake Slorchy getting his widdle feelings hurt that he has to neg my non political posts as retaliation.

[Js1 85056]

Pretty bad overall primary night for the GOP in Washington when even Republican leadership  looks like she’s in danger in November 

[Js1 85056]

1 hour ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

To use a sports analogy here, unless you have Bill Belicheck on the sideline, you have to score and take the points/lead even when you leave a lot of time on the clock for the other team to drive and score the walk-off win.

Wanting to lose this election in the hopes of winning the overall game by playing possum doesn't seem wise, because the Dem's don't have a Belicheck helping them to play this game.

 

You might be dumb.

They didn't WANT to lose.  But this race really showed that the Republicans need to drop 6 million into every R+14-R+1 district and have Pence/Trump visit.  That is highly unlikely to be possible in 70+ districts.

If anything can be taken away last night:

Democrats need 24 seats to take back the House right now:

• There's pretty much 10 that are almost guaranteed going to flip
• 11 seats are tossups in Illinois, New Jersey, Virginia, Washington and California which are not guaranteed but highly likely to flip based on primary turnout, enthusiasm and the overall D-shift in elections since 2017

That's 21 of the 24 right there. I didn't even mention tossups in Texas, all over the Midwest (Michigan and Iowa), Colorado or New York. 

Not every district is going to swing D+13 based on last night, but this is v consistent with the overall trend over 11 federal special elections held since Trump was elected: D+15.7

[Js1 85056]

1 hour ago, GSU&UT said:

Where did you see that number reported for provisionals?

Also LOL at poor snowflake Slorchy getting his widdle feelings hurt that he has to neg my non political posts as retaliation.

I got you fam.

[Js1 85056]

Jamie Herrera-Beutler is in WA-03.  So far, the Dem vote is over 50%. She's an incumbent who is at 41% in a primary.

WA-03 is listed as likely Republican.

There's going to be a lot of surprises in November.

Josh Hawley didn't even clear 60% in a basically uncontested GOP primary against a bunch of nobodies.  Weak.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Js1

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

15 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Sounds like people are trying to justifbe losing by pushing the “glad we lost so now republicans are not gonna try hard” that CNN is doing.

They've got to have some kind of reason. It can't be because voters reject the medicine show schtick they're trying to sell.

[Js1 85056]

All precincts in. Kobach 191 votes over Colyer.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Waaahh, we don't like the truth... waaah we want our way....... waaaaah......

Js1

[Js1 85056]

17 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

They've got to have some kind of reason. It can't be because voters reject the medicine show schtick they're trying to sell.

13 point swing in a heavily gerrymandered district that should not have been close, at all, ever. Not even if Jesus was the Democrat candidate.

Your team of uneducated rubes ain't excited to show up and the gerrymandered suburbs are turning out against you. 

Sorry, I'll put it in language you understand:

Yer team of morons ain't showing up and the educated "elite" "libtards" are sick of your racist pandering.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Js1

[Js1 85056]

12 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Waaahh, we don't like the truth... waaah we want our way....... waaaaah......

Js1

LOL I hope you stroke out on election night in November. Do the whole wide world a favor.

[Celery Man 20874]

yep better get warmed up for the next decade

12 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Waaahh, we don't like the truth... waaah we want our way....... waaaaah......

Js1

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

12 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

yep better get warmed up for the next decade

 

Meh, the more things change the more they stay the same.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LOL I hope you stroke out on election night in November. Do the whole wide world a favor.

You really are a little pussy aren't you.  Wishing death on total strangers.

[Celery Man 20874]

use beta cuck next

[Pancho 44358]

 

[Js1 85056]

22 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

use beta cuck next

His safe space thread got bumped to the 2nd page.  Must be lashing out that no one wants to join in on it.

[cactusflinthead 27593]

 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

I'm with Brisket.  This shit is still losing.  Yay, it was fucking close.  Guess what?  We very well might live in a shitty country.  I don't think there are more trumpkins than there are normal people, but they sure as shit vote more and that's what matters.  I think the blue wave is gonna be a blue "good effort" come November.  I hope I'm fucking wrong because moving is a pain in the ass.

[Bojack 2073]

25 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

I'm no body language expert but Kris Kobach comes off as a lying sack of shit in this clip.

[Js1 85056]

There are very few districts with as big a rural/urban divide as OH-12.  I think people are pissed O'Connor barely lost and are taking it to the extreme (OMGz blue wave fizzling!!!)  There's 70+ districts in play with a swing of 13-15 points. 

The Republicans played up this race because it was THE race on a Tuesday in August.  They barely won.  They can't commit $6 million and Trump/Pence to 435 races in November.

I wish Election Day was tomorrow because the whining about "not winning" is getting annoying AF. 

Winning OH-12 by a point is the equivalent of Aggy beating Nicholls State in September by 10 ("that was a tough test, it will make us so much better by November!") and then finishing 4th in the west and barely above 500 again.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There are very few districts with as big a rural/urban divide as OH-12.  I think people are pissed O'Connor barely lost and are taking it to the extreme (OMGz blue wave fizzling!!!)  There's 70+ districts in play with a swing of 13-15 points. 

The Republicans played up this race because it was THE race on a Tuesday in August.  They barely won.  They can't commit $6 million and Trump/Pence to 435 races in November.

I wish Election Day was tomorrow because the whining about "not winning" is getting annoying AF. 

Winning OH-12 by a point is the equivalent of Aggy beating Nicholls State in September by 10 ("that was a tough test, it will make us so much better by November!") and then finishing 4th in the west and barely above 500 again.

Well OH 12 is also gerrymandered to fuck over the Columbus voters that make up 1/3 of its population. It's a bellwether in that regard.  Unfortunately, there are a lot of districts gerrymandered in the same way. Dems need to overcome the gerrymander in some of these districts.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Meh.  People upset at this just let their hopes exceed reality.  We aren’t going to have a 350 seat D house.  We probably don’t want one either.  

[Js1 85056]

12 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Meh.  People upset at this just let their hopes exceed reality.  We aren’t going to have a 350 seat D house.  We probably don’t want one either.  

Yep.  This was right in line with polling - a toss-up with the edge of the Republicans due to gerrymandering/rural vote.

There's going to be 100 close races in November. On both sides.  There will be a few races that should have flipped that somehow won't.  There will be many races that shouldn't have flipped that will.  That's how 2006 and 2010 worked.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

15 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Well OH 12 is also gerrymandered to fuck over the Columbus voters that make up 1/3 of its population. It's a bellwether in that regard.  Unfortunately, there are a lot of districts gerrymandered in the same way. Dems need to overcome the gerrymander in some of these districts.

Yeah, I think the takeaway is that the Dems are still solidly on track to take the House, but we're not at the R nightmare scenario where the gerrymanders domino against them.  Yet. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

18 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Yeah, I think the takeaway is that the Dems are still solidly on track to take the House, but we're not at the R nightmare scenario where the gerrymanders domino against them.  Yet. 

Statehouses are important right now too. Dems need to have more oversight over redistricting following the 2020 census.  

[Tuco 5076]

20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yep.  This was right in line with polling - a toss-up with the edge of the Republicans due to gerrymandering/rural vote.

There's going to be 100 close races in November. On both sides.  There will be a few races that should have flipped that somehow won't.  There will be many races that shouldn't have flipped that will.  That's how 2006 and 2010 worked.

The fact that is was in line with polling is what is disappointing.  For example, polling shows Cruz has a 4-6 point lead on Beto.  I'd like to play the optimist and say that polling isn't capturing turn-out adequately.  But, in this instance, it did.  Granted, it's easier to set up polling to reflect ~200,000 voters than the more than 8M voters of Texas, particularly since this district was rather demographically homogenous.  Still, it would have been nice to have some evidence of unpredicted voter turn-out, rather than speculate on why other places might do better.

But I'll still play the optimist and state that 90 days is a long time in politics.

 

[Js1 85056]

12 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Statehouses are important right now too. Dems need to have more oversight over redistricting following the 2020 census.  

And governorships.  Kobach (KS) and Stitt (OK) winning are really good for the Democrats.  They're also poised to keep Minnesota and possibly pick up Michigan, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin.  Graham looks good in Florida and Arizona Dems seems excited that they have a good ticket in Sinema and Garcia.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And governorships.  Kobach (KS) and Stitt (OK) winning are really good for the Democrats.  They're also poised to keep Minnesota and possibly pick up Michigan, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin.  Graham looks good in Florida and Arizona Dems seems excited that they have a good ticket in Sinema and Garcia.

Or Kobach and Stitt end up being terrible for Dems. Sometimes hoping that the worst candidate comes out of a primary backfires on you.  They all dont turn out like Roy Moore. 

[Js1 85056]

15 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Or Kobach and Stitt end up being terrible for Dems. Sometimes hoping that the worst candidate comes out of a primary backfires on you.  They all dont turn out like Roy Moore. 

Not wrong, but the best case scenarios, in public and private polling, for Democrats to have a chance in OK-KS-GA was Stitt, Kobach and Kemp.  And Schutte in Michigan who is under investigation.

[David Dennison 18608]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm with Brisket.  This shit is still losing.  Yay, it was fucking close.  Guess what?  We very well might live in a shitty country.  I don't think there are more trumpkins than there are normal people, but they sure as shit vote more and that's what matters.  I think the blue wave is gonna be a blue "good effort" come November.  I hope I'm fucking wrong because moving is a pain in the ass.

What happened last night is a clear indication that the House is going to flip in November by 40 seats or more.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

15 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What happened last night is a clear indication that the House is going to flip in November by 40 seats or more.

Afraid not, last night was a clear indication the democrats will come up just short, claim victory, and rural America is still filled with morons racist AF.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Brisketexan 104465]

12 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What happened last night is a clear indication that the House is going to flip in November by 40 seats or more.

There's only one clear indication:

Heads.  On pikes.  "We almost got him!" is meaningless.

Heads.  On pikes.  That's all that matters.

My take: the same as it has been.  Nobody is coming to save the Republic.  We're intent on self-immolation, and we'll just add logs to the fire.  A random spritz of water here and there ain't gonna do shit.  We've chosen our path, now we're committed to it.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

I really need to start my Robot Insurance business soon.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

I think Thelma and louise’s estrogen laden power tripping is the perfect pic for a brisket post.  

[Brisketexan 104465]

I think Thelma and louise’s estrogen laden power tripping is the perfect pic for a brisket post.  

And that’s fair.

But the important thing is....I ain’t drivin’. The rest of the country is. Pedal to the metal, MAGA or death!

When you’re surrounded by shit, the country stinks of shit, and is descending even further into shit, all while celebrating the smearing of shit all over everyone and everything, it doesn’t take a sage to observe “well, this is shitty.”

MAGA!!!