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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104,465

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Hope is a drug says the guy who willfully ignores all objective data to predict doom and gloom.  Every accusation is a confession. 

Since the middle of the GOP presidential primary, everything has turned up as wet, runny shit.  I've been the guy saying "here comes the wet runny shit" since way back then.  And I'm the one off-base.  Okay then.  Keep predicting sunshine and rainbows, while we're waist-deep in a septic tank.

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104,465

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yes, and I'm afraid it will work.

 

11 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

The majority of the country may well see through it.  But between gerrymandering, Russian interference, and voter suppression it won't matter.

 

Some folks get it.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Since the middle of the GOP presidential primary, everything has turned up as wet, runny shit.  I've been the guy saying "here comes the wet runny shit" since way back then.  And I'm the one off-base.  Okay then.  Keep predicting sunshine and rainbows, while we're waist-deep in a septic tank.

I’ll predict what the data says to predict.  You type weepy screeds based in 1 election that did not go the way the polls indictated. 

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4,580

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Sometimes it feels like Brisket is trying to depress turnout by assuming the worst and getting people to go "meh, what's the point?"

Nah, he knows this board doesn't affect turnout, nor would he want to.  He's just bummed and wearing his emotions on his sleeve. 

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softlynow

softlynow 1,774

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I've had enough of predictions.  The current electoral atmosphere is too fucking volatile and unpredictable.  I'll wait till the game is actually played.  Getting one's hopes up now is utter folly.

Why? You don't seem like the fragile type. Dashed hopes amount to little.

Now, the republic may be at stake, so a less than resounding Dem win in November might be a real problem, but fuck my feelings, I'm gonna hope for some fucking wins.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,375

Posted
Posted

I see no reason for anybody inclined to support Democrat policy to be fretting.  You got exactly five more months before you take the House.  You might give up another SCOTUS seat, but that's about the worst thing that you are going to be on the receiving end of for the foreseeable future.  You will take the House in 2018 and the Senate and WH in 2020. 2019-2020 will be bogged down in investigation after investigation.  You will get to impeach Trump. And after Jan 2021 you will have control of congress and WH and might even squeak out a legislative filibuster proof Senate. Stop with the nonsense, that's the reality I see lining up.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,356

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I see no reason for anybody inclined to support Democrat policy to be fretting.  You got exactly five more months before you take the House.  You might give up another SCOTUS seat, but that's about the worst thing that you are going to be on the receiving end of for the foreseeable future.  You will take the House in 2018 and the Senate and WH in 2020. 2019-2020 will be bogged down in investigation after investigation.  You will get to impeach Trump. And after Jan 2021 you will have control of congress and WH and might even squeak out a legislative filibuster proof Senate. Stop with the nonsense, that's the reality I see lining up.

This is the best case scenario and it still sucks for America.  One party control of everything is a terrible way to govern but when one party has compromised literally everything to win, everyone will suffer.   

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,348

Posted
Posted

 

21 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I see no reason for anybody inclined to support Democrat policy to be fretting.  You got exactly five more months before you take the House.  You might give up another SCOTUS seat, but that's about the worst thing that you are going to be on the receiving end of for the foreseeable future.  You will take the House in 2018 and the Senate and WH in 2020. 2019-2020 will be bogged down in investigation after investigation.  You will get to impeach Trump. And after Jan 2021 you will have control of congress and WH and might even squeak out a legislative filibuster proof Senate. Stop with the nonsense, that's the reality I see lining up.

 

18 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is the best case scenario and it still sucks for America.  One party control of everything is a terrible way to govern but when one party has compromised literally everything to win, everyone will suffer.   

I agree with both these assessments.  I think this is going to be akin to the generation during/after the Civil War in which the Democrats virtually never controlled anything at a national level for two generations.  From 1860 to 1932, you had exactly two Democratic presidents elected--Cleveland and Wilson--the latter of which was only elected by virtue of the Republicans splitting between Roosevelt and Taft.  During that time, you only have five Congresses under unified Democratic control (against 22 Congresses under unified Republican control).

But in fairness--treason should bear such a cost.

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yaqdum

yaqdum 182

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

One party control of everything is a terrible way to govern but when one party has compromised literally everything to win, everyone will suffer.   

the thought of free-rein demos is awful but nothing like as awful as free-rein repubs.

we need another party to emerge or -- better still -- the elimination of formal tag-team politics.  political parties are like football conferences.  they do nothing good for anybody but themselves.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26,239

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Heads_on_pikes.jpg

 

Why am I looking at a bunch of raggedy-ass Frogs hell-bent on establishing The Terror then installing a midget Emperor then redoing 47 different Republics that fall apart faster than the door handle on a Citroen? Raggedy-ass Frogs who fire volleys too soon and then scatter at our own, wait for it, WAIT for it? Raggedy-ass Frogs who parade with two heads on pikes while 20 more French nobles, heads still firmly attached, offer their services to England and Prussia and inflict defeat at least once per generation on these garlic-reeking snail-slurping peasants?

By Jove.

Why am I looking at these raggedy-ass Frogs, sah?

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softlynow

softlynow 1,774

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Why am I looking at a bunch of raggedy-ass Frogs hell-bent on establishing The Terror then installing a midget Emperor then redoing 47 different Republics that fall apart faster than the door handle on a Citroen? Raggedy-ass Frogs who fire volleys too soon and then scatter at our own, wait for it, WAIT for it? Raggedy-ass Frogs who parade with two heads on pikes while 20 more French nobles, heads still firmly attached, offer their services to England and Prussia and inflict defeat at least once per generation on these garlic-reeking snail-slurping peasants?

By Jove.

Why am I looking at these raggedy-ass Frogs, sah?

Because you are sans-culottes.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26,239

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Sid Miller blames Obama for the shootings in Chicago this past weekend

 

Obama does seem calm cool and collected. The sort of guy who would breathe out softly with a light trigger pull. Might be the best natural marksman ever to come out of that town.

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Horn Under a Bad Sign

Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,342

Posted
Posted

 

12 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Obama does seem calm cool and collected. The sort of guy who would breathe out softly with a light trigger pull. Might be the best natural marksman ever to come out of that town.

 

The responses to his post are frightening.  All those people who blame Obama ----- were they blaming Reagan during the 1980s, when Chicago's homicide rate was higher than it is today? Did they blame Nixon in 1972, when Chicago hit its all-time high?

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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

Posted
Posted

Trump's tweets today are more confident that last night. 

Quote

The Republicans have now won 8 out of 9 House Seats, yet if you listen to the Fake News Media you would think we are being clobbered. Why can’t they play it straight, so unfair to the Republican Party and in particular, your favorite President!

....

As long as I campaign and/or support Senate and House candidates (within reason), they will win! I LOVE the people, & they certainly seem to like the job I’m doing. If I find the time, in between China, Iran, the Economy and much more, which I must, we will have a giant Red Wave!

 

 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18,606

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 

 

The responses to his post are frightening.  All those people who blame Obama ----- were they blaming Reagan during the 1980s, when Chicago's homicide rate was higher than it is today? Did they blame Nixon in 1972, when Chicago hit its all-time high?

Don't use reason. It doesn't work on Republicans.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, ousuxndallas said:

Democrats: the aggy of politics with "moral victories"! I guess the Democrats just ran out of time!

I do think a big part of the miscommunication here is people equating things to sports.  A close loss in football may portend good things to come, but it doesn't really turn out that way very often.  It's just that you lost a game you could have won, and then everything is reset the next day.  In this election, this is one more data point -- out of scores of corroborating data points -- that drives home the fact that the nation is in a D+10 mood.  That isn't reset the next day.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104,465

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

Why am I looking at a bunch of raggedy-ass Frogs hell-bent on establishing The Terror then installing a midget Emperor then redoing 47 different Republics that fall apart faster than the door handle on a Citroen? Raggedy-ass Frogs who fire volleys too soon and then scatter at our own, wait for it, WAIT for it? Raggedy-ass Frogs who parade with two heads on pikes while 20 more French nobles, heads still firmly attached, offer their services to England and Prussia and inflict defeat at least once per generation on these garlic-reeking snail-slurping peasants?

By Jove.

Why am I looking at these raggedy-ass Frogs, sah?

Well....because Google image search, mostly.

And I liked all the colors.  Colors are purty.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1,798

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

The Columbus Dispatch.  http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180807/12-congressional-district-troy-balderson-almost-certain-winner-of-tight-race

Wow, so this really won't be known for many more days since they have some dumb rule where they have to wait 10 days before counting absentee and provisionals.

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Js1

Js1 85,056

Posted
Posted

Kansas 3: Leans R -> Tossup

Michigan 11: Toss-up -> Leans D

New Jersey 11: Tossup -> Leans D

New York 27: Safe R -> Likely R

Pennsylvania 17: Toss-up -> Leans D

Pennsylvania 7: Toss-up -> Leans D

Washington 3: Safe R-> Leans R (Democrats outvoted the Republicans 50.3 to 49.7, I think this should be moved to toss-up)

Washington 5: Leans R -> Toss-up (Republicans only outvoted Democrats 50.5-47.1 in a district represented by Republican's #3 leader)

Red wave! That's what it's called when more races move against you, right?

That's now 11 most-likely-to-flip R->D and they didn't even include Washington-8 (open), where the Democrats outvoted the Republicans in jungle primary 49.9-47.1 (some indies and a libertarian). 

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3,867

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, GSU&UT said:

Wow, so this really won't be known for many more days since they have some dumb rule where they have to wait 10 days before counting absentee and provisionals.

Not sure if that is make sure all mailed ballots are in rule or leftover from the horse and buggy days. 

It is pretty weird coming from the southwest that didn't really takeoff until A/C to going to services every week in a church where the chapel that was built before the Texas Revolution. 

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1,740

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Posted

Some of y’all are taking this one race as the whole game. It’s more like the first minute of a football game. The whole game is taking back the House.

The republicans got a first down but they had to go for it on 4th and made it by an inch. And their best player got hurt. They were +2500 before the game but now they are +5000 in live betting.

And some of y’all want to leave the game early because the other team got a meaningless first down.....

 

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1,740

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Posted

Do we have any updates on the MJ Hagar race? I saw that she raised 750k in the 10 days following the video release and she has much more cash than carter.

I was disappointed to see how much carter has been winning this district by. It’s never been remotely close. Wilco is much more purple than it used to be but probably not enough. 

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1,740

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, ousuxndallas said:

So, how many here think the Green Party votes in Ohio this week were just Russian meddling in the election?

Twitter libs think so. You can't make this stuff up.

And our president thinks ketchup goes on steaks. Clean up your own party before worrying about some idiots on twitter.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Do we have any updates on the MJ Hagar race? I saw that she raised 750k in the 10 days following the video release and she has much more cash than carter.

I was disappointed to see how much carter has been winning this district by. It’s never been remotely close. Wilco is much more purple than it used to be but probably not enough. 

The district is Wilco and Bell counties with Wilco making up 2/3rds of the vote. Trump won 51.3% in Wilco and 54.7% in Bell.  Romney won 59.5% in Wilco and 57.5% in Bell so both are trending away from the Republicans, and based on demographic trends Wilco is going to flip to Democratic in the lead race in this election prior to considering a high Democratic turnout.

To be fair about 2% of those lost Republican votes in 2016 went to Johnson, but I think MJ could pick up those independently minded voters. MJ should also do great with the military and ex-military from both counties who tend to vote Republican.

If the Republicans and Democrats turn out in an equal percentage relative to 2016, which already means the Democrats are turning out better than usual in a mid term, the race could be within 1% either way. In a blue wave I think MJ wins. If Democrats have their usual midterm turnout Carter wins.

 

 

Edited by RayDog
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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

Posted
Posted


Twitter libs think so. You can't make this stuff up.

Well, maybe you couldn’t make it up. But there are plenty of conservatives with room temperature IQs who have been making up much more ridiculous shit for decades.
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