2018 - Elections and Trends

[RayDog 682]

Green parties are useful idiots for Russian meddling too, but I doubt they were in on OH12 greens.

[Js1 87179]

19 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Green parties are useful idiots for Russian meddling too, but I doubt they were in on OH12 greens.

This one was just a idiot.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1741350/Video-Ohio-Green-Party-candidate-remember-website.html

The one in Montana is a useful idiot for the Republican party, as they financed his bid to get on the ballot.

Jill Stein was a useful idiot for Russia.

 

At the end of the story, the moral to the story is the same - the Green Party is useless to everyone.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

15 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Green parties are useful idiots for Russian meddling too, but I doubt they were in on OH12 greens.

The Kremlin Twitter accounts did push pro Balderson messages on Twitter around the election but they push messages on every hot topic of the day so it’s not a shock.

[Tuco 5093]

CNN has an article on MJ Hegar.  I read the head line and first few paragraphs, and was thinking the Dems were playing smart with seeding the article.

Quote

Female war hero leads new wave of veteran candidates

Round Rock, Texas (CNN)MJ Hegar does not hold back. "I'm an ass kicking, motorcycle-riding, Texas Democrat. That's who I am!"

She says that emphatically, unblinkingly and unapologetically to a constituent at a political meet-and-greet in a suburban Austin, Texas, home. And she is talking to someone she needs to win over.

"I'm a Republican," the woman says to Hegar. "I'd like to know, in a county that is predominantly Republican, what makes you different from our current congressman?"

That question hits on the central challenge facing Hegar who, in order to defeat incumbent Republican Rep. John Carter in November, will have to win over GOP-leaning voters. Hegar's response -- "I'm an American. I'm a veteran. I'm fighting for this country." -- is how she hopes to do it.

 

But they just couldn't help themselves from smelling their own farts:

Quote

"We worked tirelessly to recruit a historic number of candidates with records of service, including female veterans," says Molly Mitchell, the Director of Media Affairs for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of Democrats in the House of Representatives. "These candidates have powerful personal stories and strong independent profiles that excite the grassroots base and prevent Republicans from successfully putting our candidates into ideological boxes. The DCCC knew that voters would flock to the stabilizing influences of veteran candidates."

Jesus fucking Christ, Molly.  Don't tell a reporter that.  "Hey, the Republicans have been pandering for years with this veterans stuff, and it seemed to play well, so now we are doing it."  This dimwit is the "Director of Media Affairs"? And, from what I've seen, the national party isn't recruiting grassroots candidates; those candidates are recruiting themselves often swimming upstream against the party establishment.  MJ was certainly active in lobbying her Congressman, filing a lawsuit to change policy, and writing a book before deciding to run.  I'd been fucking shocked if the national party had didly-shit to do with her running.   

Edited August 9, 2018 by Tuco

[Mo Horn 8937]

18 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

because of course

We moved across the state line to Kansas a couple of years ago for a variety of reasons, but Kansas politics is the worst things about living in the state. There might have been some chance that the Democrat could have won the governor's race this fall, but Orman got enough signatures to get on the ballot as an independent. He'll take votes away from Kelly and all but assures that this idiot will win. 

[Stringer 1487]

I am enjoying the R's crowing about the Ohio win, particularly as this race is going to be run back in a few months.  We'll see what happens then.

From what I understand, O'Connor had a late push when people realized it was an actual race.  May have been a case of too little too late, but November may give his team more time.

[Js1 87179]

42 minutes ago, Tuco said:

CNN has an article on MJ Hegar.  I read the head line and first few paragraphs, and was thinking the Dems were playing smart with seeding the article.

But they just couldn't help themselves from smelling their own farts:

Jesus fucking Christ, Molly.  Don't tell a reporter that.  "Hey, the Republicans have been pandering for years with this veterans stuff, and it seemed to play well, so now we are doing it."  This dimwit is the "Director of Media Affairs"? And, from what I've seen, the national party isn't recruiting grassroots candidates; those candidates are recruiting themselves often swimming upstream against the party establishment.  MJ was certainly active in lobbying her Congressman, filing a lawsuit to change policy, and writing a book before deciding to run.  I'd been fucking shocked if the national party had didly-shit to do with her running.   

I get what she's saying.  Hard for Republicans to run by calling their opponents traitors and unpatriotic against a veteran.  MJ Hegar, Conor Lamb, Amy McGrath, Gina Ortiz Jones, Dan McCready. 

Democrats should be hammering 3 things for the next 13 weeks - Country over Party (the vet candidates), Republican scandal and corruption, and Republicans catering to the rich.

Edited August 9, 2018 by Js1

[PittsburghTiger 6341]

TAMPA — Russian operatives have "penetrated" some of Florida's voter registration systems ahead of the 2018 midterms, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson said Wednesday, adding new urgency to concerns about hacking.

The state, however, said it has received "zero information" supporting his claim.

"They have already penetrated certain counties in the state and they now have free rein to move about," Nelson told the Tampa Bay Times before a campaign event in Tampa. He said something similar a day earlier in Tallahassee but declined to elaborate.

"That's classified," the Democrat said Tuesday.

He is facing a re-election challenge in November from Gov. Rick Scott, whose administration said it has no knowledge of the allegations made by Nelson.

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/08/08/bill-nelson-the-russians-have-penetrated-some-florida-voter-election-systems/

[Chuckie Finster 23059]

PittsburghTiger leaving out the part of the article where the Republican senator expresses similar concerns?  Well I never... 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

If you were Russia, which states would you want to fuck with most?

Florida and Texas would be at the top of my list due to size, political ideology, and demographics. 

 

[GSU&UT 1799]

14 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

If you were Russia, which states would you want to fuck with most?

Florida and Texas would be at the top of my list due to size, political ideology, and demographics. 

 

You'd fuck with swing states, pure and simple.

[Biff Tannen 46163]

19 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

You'd fuck with swing states, pure and simple.

Yep.  Ohio, Penn, Florida

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

13 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

You'd fuck with swing states, pure and simple.

It’s not just about elections.  It’s about creating chaos and pushing people to conflict in the real world.   It’s about holding down the strongholds. 

Florida and Texas 

If Texas goes blue, it’s game over for the republicans.

Texas was the EC difference in 2016, Hillary would have won despite all of Russia’s other activities if Texas went blue.

The gop needs outside influence to hold down the Alamo or they will very soon.

 

[PittsburghTiger 6341]

22 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

PittsburghTiger leaving out the part of the article where the Republican senator expresses similar concerns?  Well I never... 

Didn't feel the need to paste the entire story. I read the story, pasted the link too. It wasn't hard to find, was it? I didn't label Nelson or Scott by their party affiliation.

[Tuco 5093]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I get what she's saying.  Hard for Republicans to run by calling their opponents traitors and unpatriotic against a veteran.  MJ Hegar, Conor Lamb, Amy McGrath, Gina Ortiz Jones, Dan McCready. 

Democrats should be hammering 3 things for the next 13 weeks - Country over Party (the vet candidates), Republican scandal and corruption, and Republicans catering to the rich.

I get what she is saying.  But it's a stupid thing to say, particularly to a reporter.

I think there is a reason she said it, and it has little to do with trying to win elections.  While the excitement at the grassroots level and influx of new talent for candidates has been great for the Dem party (and the country), it has largely ignored the party establishment at the national level.  I donate at the county and state level; I reply with a "fuck you" to the DNC requests after Perez took a shit on a mayoral candidate I was campaigning for and the party pushed for an old school moderate over a grassroots progressive for the NE#2 primary.  I suspect Molly is trying to demonstrate the DNC's relevance to this potential Blue Wave so that she, and other officers, will receive credit for it.  But in doing so, she demonstrated exactly why she should look for work in a different capacity.  Give the candidates the resources and guidance, and then get the fuck out of the way.  That's all I want out of the DNC. 

[David Dennison 19536]

Corey Stewart is losing so badly in Virginia he might bring some House members down with him.

[Zonahorn 8079]

48 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Corey Stewart is losing so badly in Virginia he might bring some House members down with him.

Said this earlier in the thread, but he's really trying to turn Virginia into to California v2.

[Gil Bang 26235]

 

[Js1 87179]

“Mistake”

kobach is going to claim fraud 

[Chad Fuck 18134]

That he didn't recuse himself from the count and appoint some old respected judge in his place is crazy.  The people of Kansas should be up in arms.

 

[seven 1368]

There is no recount yet, the official election results haven't even been decided, there are a few thousand ballots still out. 

The above ap story is a county doublecheck showed someone accidentally entered 422 instead of 522 (in KKKris' favor) 

[Js1 87179]

In hotly contested special elections in 2017-18 (AL Senate, GA6, MT-AL, SC5, KS4, PA18, AZ8 and OH12):

Democratic committees + DNC + other groups - $12.3 million (about $1.5 million per race)

Republican committees + RNC + other groups - $41.7 million (about $5.2 million per race)

 

Boy that looks unsustainable for Republicans.  If you have ~70 tossup seats currently, that's $364.8 million in outside spending.  Not counting any Senate races in expensive markets like Houston, Tampa, Phoenix, Miami, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Nashville, San Antonio, Kansas City, Austin, Memphis, Vegas, etc.

Edited August 9, 2018 by Js1

[Tuco 5093]

34 minutes ago, Js1 said:

In hotly contested special elections in 2017-18 (AL Senate, GA6, MT-AL, SC5, KS4, PA18, AZ8 and OH12):

Democratic committees + DNC + other groups - $12.3 million (about $1.5 million per race)

Republican committees + RNC + other groups - $41.7 million (about $5.2 million per race)

 

Boy that looks unsustainable for Republicans.  If you have ~70 tossup seats currently, that's $364.8 million in outside spending.  Not counting any Senate races in expensive markets like Houston, Tampa, Phoenix, Miami, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Nashville, San Antonio, Kansas City, Austin, Memphis, Vegas, etc.

Source?

And, while the Republicans have certainly raked in the cash more since 2016, that does seem unsustainable, particularly if the pro-business conservatives like Koch Bros are getting restless about tariffs, immigration, and the ballooning deficit.

[Js1 87179]

17 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Source?

And, while the Republicans have certainly raked in the cash more since 2016, that does seem unsustainable, particularly if the pro-business conservatives like Koch Bros are getting restless about tariffs, immigration, and the ballooning deficit.

Carrie Dann, NBC News/Politics.  She did the math herself.  Rough estimates, but the point stands.  Republicans groups cannot commit $5-6 million per House race and probably double that per Senate race.  That's approaching $500 million.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

didn't the Koch brothers pledge to spend upwards of $400 million on races and causes this election cycle?   You would assume that at least 99.999% are for GOP candidates.

[Js1 87179]

15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

didn't the Koch brothers pledge to spend upwards of $400 million on races and causes this election cycle?   You would assume that at least 99.999% are for GOP candidates.

Wasn't that announced 8 months ago before the tariffs and then Trump/RNC basically telling them go fuck off and die?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

Some are worried about the potential of fraud with the continued or increased use of electronic voting machines but KS had a mistake in the GOP primary results based on someone manually typing in a vote count that they received via fax.    Forget hacking into machines, you only need to pay off the person handling the faxes.  

[Dahobbs 18318]

17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Some are worried about the potential of fraud with the continued or increased use of electronic voting machines but KS had a mistake in the GOP primary results based on someone manually typing in a vote count that they received via fax.    Forget hacking into machines, you only need to pay off the person handling the faxes.  

Yes, but it was caught. The problem with machines is:

(1) they are easy to hack;

(2) if hacked successfully, there may not be way to find out;

(3) if hacked successfully and no paper back up, you can't identify where the vote was supposed to go

Paper gives you a solid audit trail that makes wide scale disruption of elections almost impossible. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19586]

2 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

That he didn't recuse himself from the count and appoint some old respected judge in his place is crazy.  The people of Kansas should be up in arms.

 

[Js1 87179]

16 hours ago, seven said:

There is no recount yet, the official election results haven't even been decided, there are a few thousand ballots still out. 

The above ap story is a county doublecheck showed someone accidentally entered 422 instead of 522 (in KKKris' favor) 

Someone being Kobach 

 

[Chad Fuck 18134]

And he finally recuses himself.

[Tuco 5093]

One follow-up on the OH-12 election.  It's one thing to talk about the percentage swing from Trump's victory, but looking at the deltas on turnouts on votes for the R and D Congressional candidate tells the same story a little more dramatically:

2018:

Balderson (R): 101,574 votes

O'Connor (D): 99,820

2016:

Tiberi (R): 243,970

Albertson (D): 109,445

2014:

Tiberi (R): 147,871

Tibbs (D): 60,026

I don't know if a special election with this much attention and funding should have turn out expectations closer to a midterm or a presidential cycle, but either way you cut it, these are just huge swing in voters willing to show up to vote R.  Granted, Albertson and Tibbs were likely candidates who little expectations of winning. 

[Message Board User 12405]

Good stuff.

 

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3873]

The GOP’s shifting coalition in Ohio’s 12th District

Balderson collapsed in the suburbs compared to Tiberi. But he did better further from Columbus’ Franklin County and neighboring Delaware County, fueling his lead in the Aug. 7 special election.

 

 

County	Tiberi 2012	Tiberi 2016	Balderson 2018	Shift from '12
Franklin	58%	57%	35%	-23
Delaware	71%	72%	54%	-17
Licking	66%	71%	61%	-4
Marion	71%	78%	68%	-3
Morrow	69%	77%	71%	+2
Richland	57%	64%	59%	+3
Muskingum	58%	69%	67%	+9
TOTAL	63%	67%	50%	-13

 

Source: Ohio secretary of state

Quote

 

Edited August 10, 2018 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[atomheartbevo 90642]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Someone being Kobach 

 

Holy shit, he’s every bit as sleazy as he came across when working for Trump, except he’s even more open about it.

[Js1 87179]

1 hour ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

The GOP’s shifting coalition in Ohio’s 12th District

Balderson collapsed in the suburbs compared to Tiberi. But he did better further from Columbus’ Franklin County and neighboring Delaware County, fueling his lead in the Aug. 7 special election.

 

 

County	Tiberi 2012	Tiberi 2016	Balderson 2018	Shift from '12
Franklin	58%	57%	35%	-23
Delaware	71%	72%	54%	-17
Licking	66%	71%	61%	-4
Marion	71%	78%	68%	-3
Morrow	69%	77%	71%	+2
Richland	57%	64%	59%	+3
Muskingum	58%	69%	67%	+9
TOTAL	63%	67%	50%	-13

 

Source: Ohio secretary of state

So about the same trend we are seeing.

Moderate suburban/exurb swings away from Republicans and small, continued movement of the rurals towards Republicans.  Not a lot of districts with a huge rural/urban divide like this one.

[Hornius Emeritus 12801]

Sid Miller stole my content regarding Whataburger and presented it as his own.

I posted this two days ago at 11:00 a.m.  About 8 hours later, Sid Miller posted it as his own.  He did not share it. He started a new message, copied my text, pasted it into his message, then posted it.   As if Sid Miller has ever heard of Bob Slydell or "Office Space."  All Sid had to do was hit the "share" button, which is what more than 10,000 other people did.  I would not have liked that because Traces of Texas is apolitical be design, but there's nothing I can do to prevent that. 



My post on Traces of Texas:

 

Sid Miller's post on Sid Miller's page.  Sid has apparently set his privacy settings such that others can't link to his Facebook posts. So here's a direct link to Sid's post.  As you can see, he stole it from me verbatim.

https://www.facebook.com/MillerForTexas/photos/a.1430872243801609.1073741828.1427314137490753/2322374267984731/?type=3&theater

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[kevwun 16438]

Well he didn't because I'd wager that copying and pasting is behind that morons abilities.  One of his minions did it.

[Dahobbs 18318]

19 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

Sid Miller stole my content regarding Whataburger and presented it as his own.

I posted this two days ago at 11:00 a.m.  About 8 hours later, Sid Miller posted it as his own.  He did not share it. He started a new message, copied my text, pasted it into his message, then posted it.   As if Sid Miller has ever heard of Bob Slydell or "Office Space."  All Sid had to do was hit the "share" button, which is what more than 10,000 other people did.  I would not have liked that because Traces of Texas is apolitical be design, but there's nothing I can do to prevent that. 



My post on Traces of Texas:

 

Sid Miller's post on Sid Miller's page.  Sid has apparently set his privacy settings such that others can't link to his Facebook posts. So here's a direct link to Sid's post.  As you can see, he stole it from me verbatim.

https://www.facebook.com/MillerForTexas/photos/a.1430872243801609.1073741828.1427314137490753/2322374267984731/?type=3&theater

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Send a cease and desist letter for copy right infringement. And post it on his facebook page and twitter (assuming he has one). This is not legal advice. 

[Anastasis 23717]

what a dick. 

[Huckleberry 34635]

45 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Send a cease and desist letter for copy right infringement. And post it on his facebook page and twitter (assuming he has one). This is not legal advice. 

Who is the copyright holder for text originally published on Facebook? Is it the author or is it Facebook?

I mean either way it's obviously bullshit for someone to do that, but just curious.

Edited August 10, 2018 by Huckleberry

[Dahobbs 18318]

18 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Who is the copyright holder for text originally published on Facebook? Is it the author or is it Facebook?

I mean either way it's obviously bullshit for someone to do that, but just curious.

As far as I know, posting on Facebook doesn't confer copyright on the material to Facebook, so it should stay with the author. I suppose we'd have to check the terms of use to be sure. 

[RDCanecutter 26881]

Looks like Sid Miller's FB flunkie saw the objection and removed the post, and will not commit plagiarism again, until the next English Composition paper is due.

[Gil Bang 26235]

 

[Horn Dog 10158]

29 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

Nice ad.  I especially like the porno background music.

[ERhine 1938]

Good try Hornius...or is it Sid?

[Gil Bang 26235]

 

[Js1 87179]

How come "Will you vote for Pelosi as Speaker?" is literally the first question to every Congressional candidate on the Democrat side, but no one asks "Will you vote for Jim Jordan, who covered up sexual assault as a coach at Ohio State, which is infinity times worse than Pelosi being a liberal woman, for Speaker?" of the Republicans.

[Gil Bang 26235]

that's an excellent quesition