2018 - Elections and Trends

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13,629]

What is a fact?

[Gengs1 2,583]

23 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Why would anyone, in 2018, lie about something like a college degree. It’s one of the easiest things to verify or disprove, outside of maybe military service. That alone tells me this lady is an idiot. I mean, even a University of Phoenix diploma mill thing would have been easy to obtain with about as much as she paid for a fake diploma and frame.

I mean look what the president is doing, they are following the model. 

Get questioned and deny and then spin it 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,730]

24 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Why would anyone, in 2018, lie about something like a college degree. It’s one of the easiest things to verify or disprove, outside of maybe military service. That alone tells me this lady is an idiot. I mean, even a University of Phoenix diploma mill thing would have been easy to obtain with about as much as she paid for a fake diploma and frame.

If my hard earned dollars are buying a fake diploma, Why not go with a PhD for Harvard.  

[bernorange 8,385]

Gary Johnson in the Senate would be great theater.  Do it NM.  Do it.

[Gengs1 2,583]

I figured how the Ds going to lose parts of the elections, they going to keep on nominating people to be progressive like trans, Imgrant and gay people, instead of someone who can win and get in.

This will turn away a lot of voters and they should be worrying about winning then pushing this. Same shit happened when they wanted a women president instead of someone to win.

[Js1 87,182]

So they should just nominate corporatist white male boring centrists with no principles or ideas?  Yay, America.  How do you know that the trans, immigrant or LGBT person isn't the most qualified?  We could do with some new ideas and new voices in Congress.  People hate Congress.  Why should they then just nominate the same people who go there and do nothing?

A reminder - they didn't just pick "a" woman to be President, but a former Senator, First Lady and Secretary of State.  They didn't just grab some dumb cunt out of Alaska and declare her qualified.

Edited August 15, 2018 by Js1

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13,629]

I mean look what the president is doing, they are following the model. 
Get questioned and deny and then spin it 

Exactly. "Spin it" is charitable. Just call anything that contradicts you fake over and over and eventually a massive chunk of the country will begin to believe you.

[Js1 87,182]

20 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

37 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

I mean look what the president is doing, they are following the model. 
Get questioned and deny and then spin it 

Exactly. "Spin it" is charitable. Just call anything that contradicts you fake over and over and eventually a massive chunk of the country will begin to believe you.

Yep. 10 years ago, "spinning it" was "I misspoke or exaggerated."  There actually was a level of accountability and saying "damn, I fucked up."

Now it's "FAKE NEWS!" No self blame.

[Gengs1 2,583]

24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

So they should just nominate corporatist white male boring centrists with no principles or ideas?  Yay, America.  How do you know that the trans, immigrant or LGBT person isn't the most qualified?  We could do with some new ideas and new voices in Congress.  People hate Congress.  Why should they then just nominate the same people who go there and do nothing?

A reminder - they didn't just pick "a" woman to be President, but a former Senator, First Lady and Secretary of State.  They didn't just grab some dumb cunt out of Alaska and declare her qualified.

Let them get some experience at the state level then move them to the big leagues.

nominate someone who is white/black/asian who the people can relate to. This is them trying to be progressive for progessive state. They need to playing win instead of this.

They need To strike now

the rs did that with Alaska girl and it’s backfired 

[RayDog 682]

People relate to needing healthcare, education, and a living wage. Corporate Democrats don't even carry that message.

[bernorange 8,385]

32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

... We could do with some new ideas and new voices in Congress.  People hate Congress.  Why should they then just nominate the same people who go there and do nothing? ...

Sounds like another vote for Sen. Johnson (L-NM)!

[Js1 87,182]

18 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Sounds like another vote for Sen. Johnson (L-NM)!

Pass on your failed 2-time presidential candidate who doesn't know what Aleppo is. 

[bernorange 8,385]

Lighten up js1.  It was a joke. 

[RDCanecutter 26,884]

56 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Why would anyone, in 2018, lie about something like a college degree. It’s one of the easiest things to verify or disprove, outside of maybe military service. That alone tells me this lady is an idiot. I mean, even a University of Phoenix diploma mill thing would have been easy to obtain with about as much as she paid for a fake diploma and frame.

CSB#458: I went to a professional development seminar junket to Missouri, where a (I think Peruvian) lady with a degree from a place I could barely find a hint of online, was one of the people who at the end of 72 hours issued me a colorful certificate of three graduate hours study at a well-known public university, in Mexico.

Still got it. It's pretty.

Couple months later, I got an email from her partner in education who said unfortunately, that Mexican university would not allow her to issue more certificates in their name (what a story that must have been), but would I, at my present school, like to tap into the Professional Development Money River and offer similar deals myself?

I assume all those professional development dollars go back to all y'alls' property taxes.

I'm not saying I was too honest to do it, but I am way too lazy.

[Tuco 5,093]

Let them get some experience at the state level then move them to the big leagues.
nominate someone who is white/black/asian who the people can relate to. This is them trying to be progressive for progessive state. They need to playing win instead of this.
They need To strike now
the rs did that with Alaska girl and it’s backfired 

So what transgender immigrants are they nominating for fed positions?

[GopherRock 1,773]

Minnesota Republicans decided that two terms as governor were...ahem... Pawlenty. 

 

https://www.twincities.com/2018/08/14/mn-governor-early-primary-returns-johnson-leads-pawlenty-battle-for-gop-while-walz-murphy-lead-swanson-vie-for-dfl/

 

Also, there were nearly twice as many votes cast in the DFL primary than the Republican primary. 

[Js1 87,182]

Vermont Governor: 57,102 D to 35,840 R (D+21,262) (race is Leans/Likely R in favor of Scott, the incumbent)

Minnesota Governor: 580,962 D to 319,276 R (D+261,686) (race is Leans D since Pawlenty lost - open seat)

Minnesota Senate: 579,567 D to 288,482 R (D+291,085) (race is Solid D for Klobuchar, the incumbent)

Minnesota Senate Special: 567,404 D to 299,286 R (D+268,118) (race is Likely D for Smith, the apointee)

Wisconsin Governor: 537,840 D to 456,007 R (D+81,833) (race is tossup - Walker is the incumbent seeking a third consecutive win)

Wisconsin Senate: 442,567 R - Baldwin was uncontested (race is leans/likely D based on polling in favor of Baldwin, the incumbent, but not a great sign Walker, basically running unopposed, overperformed a competitive Senate primary by 14k votes.  There might be a decent chunk of Baldwin/Walker voters in November)

Connecticut Governor: 211,499 D to 142,890 R (D+68,609) (race is tossup/leans D)

[Ghost of LL 15,698]

I would be real cautious about trying to extrapolate anything from primary turnout.  There are a lot of issues that go into that (e.g., local races, number of incumbents) that don't have any bearing on how people will vote in November.  For that reason, primary turnout historically has a low predictive value.

[Js1 87,182]

19 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I would be real cautious about trying to extrapolate anything from primary turnout.  There are a lot of issues that go into that (e.g., local races, number of incumbents) that don't have any bearing on how people will vote in November.  For that reason, primary turnout historically has a low predictive value.

I agree.

Really, it shows how fired-up Democrats are, period.  You can extrapolate from it, for instance, in Connecticut and Minnesota, open and competitive governor seats and where the enthusiasm was.  Or the lack thereof for the Wisconsin GOP Senate primary compared to the uncontested Governor primary (underperforming Walker).

The only true thing I take away from last night -

Amy Klobuchar is one step above Gary Peters in the "Generic Democrat" moniker and in her 3 primaries for Senate, she's won 92.5%, 90.8% and 95.7% of the vote.  And she's won her elections so far by 21 and 35 points.  And she's regularly at 60% or higher in her favorability. She's almost always in the top 5 among all Senators.  And she gets roughly 0.00000001% buzz about anything.

[David Dennison 19,538]

Kasich 2020 talk not going away.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,730]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

Kasich 2020 talk not going away.

If Kasich could talk with every adult American to explain his view of the future, I think he would beat Trump easily.  As that's impossible and we live in a sound bite world, Trump defeats him every time.    

[Mo Horn 8,938]

4 hours ago, GopherRock said:

Minnesota Republicans decided that two terms as governor were...ahem... Pawlenty. 

 

https://www.twincities.com/2018/08/14/mn-governor-early-primary-returns-johnson-leads-pawlenty-battle-for-gop-while-walz-murphy-lead-swanson-vie-for-dfl/

 

Also, there were nearly twice as many votes cast in the DFL primary than the Republican primary. 

Minnesota proved again last night that the old Republican Party is dead
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Updated 2 hours ago Aug 15, 2018
(CNN) - When former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty announced last year that he was leaving his cushy DC lobbying job to try to reclaim his old job, establishment Republicans cheered. Pawlenty, who spent eight years as the state's governor last decade, was seen as the party's only chance of winning the governor's mansion in the Democratic-tilting state.
On Tuesday, Pawlenty lost the Republican primary -- convincingly. The author of the shocking upset was Jeff Johnson, a lightly known Hennepin County commissioner.
"The Republican Party has shifted," Pawlenty acknowledged in his concession speech Tuesday night. "It is the era of Trump, and I'm just not a Trump-like politician."
Yup, that captures the current state of affairs nicely.
What's remarkable is how quickly Trump's hostile takeover of the GOP happened. Back when Pawlenty ran for president in 2012, he was regarded as one of the bright young stars of the party -- someone who had cracked the code on how Republicans could win in blue states in the industrial Midwest. Six years later, Pawlenty couldn't even win a Republican primary in a state where he spent almost a decade as governor -- and against a candidate who no one gave a chance of unseating him when the race started.
Pawlenty becomes the latest example of the penalty paid by those Republicans who resist Trump and the sort of bare-knuckled politics he has brought to the GOP.  Pawlenty now joins a scrap heap of one-time rising stars that includes, among many, many others, Jeb Bush, Jeff Flake and Bob Corker. All of these men spoke out against Trump during the course of the 2016 campaign. All lost -- or were driven into retirement -- as the direct result of that decision.
To be clear: Pawlenty's past opposition to Trump -- "He is unsound, uninformed, unhinged and unfit to be president of the United States, and I am withdrawing my support of him," the former governor said in the wake of the release of the "Access Hollywood" tape in 2016 -- wasn't the only reason he lost on Tuesday. Having served as a very well-paid lobbyist just before deciding to run for governor again isn't exactly the resume point most GOP voters (or any voters) are looking for right now. Retired politicians trying to get back into government also don't fit with the current political moment. And perhaps most importantly, there's a reason why Pawlenty's star never rose in that 2012 presidential race -- he was deeply underwhelming as a candidate, seemingly lacking the spine to strike the hard body blows against his opponents that every successful politician must.
Still, even with those clear problems, the Republican Party of, say, 2012, almost certainly re-nominates Pawlenty to be their gubernatorial nominee. He's the kind of guy with the kind of background and the kind of policy positions -- average guy looking out for the average Joe and Jane -- who Republicans long believed was their future.
No more. Trump killed that Republican ideal during the 2016 primary season. Whether it was Jeb(!) Bush, Marco Rubio or John Kasich, Republican voters rejected them all in favor of Trump's populist, nativist appeals to their raw emotions. These losers have failed you, Trump told the crowds -- and they believed him.
For all of Trump's divisiveness, his norm-shattering and his rejection of the ideas that have long defined what it means to be the President of the United States, he has been embraced by Republican voters like few GOP politicians before him. In Gallup's weekly national tracking poll, almost 90% of Republican voters have consistently expressed approval for the job Trump is doing as president -- even as less than half that number of the overall public shares those sentiments. Trump has cast himself as "the most popular person in the history of the Republican Party," adding: "I beat our Honest Abe."
Trump's death grip on the GOP's base explains the unwillingness of Republican leaders -- with the exception of those who are retiring -- to cross him, even when he says and does things (like saying that both Russia and the US were to blame for Russian election interference in 2016) that would have elicited calls to resign in the past. They are afraid of him. And as Pawlenty's loss proves, with good reason!
Whether or not the Republican establishment -- such as it still exists in frail replica of its former self -- wants to admit it, there aren't two wings of the current GOP. There is the Trump wing -- and that's it. Yes, pockets of resistance remain -- and can even score an occasional win in their ongoing battle against Trump. But they are very much the exception, not the rule. This is Donald Trump's party now, and any Republican not willing to kiss the ring runs the risk of getting Pawlenty-ed. And soon.
TM & © 2018 Turner Broadcasting System, Inc.
A WarnerMedia Company.
All Rights Reserved.

[Js1 87,182]

Me, this morning: Man haven't heard much about Joe Donnelly in a while. That dude must be toast in Indiana.

Trafalgar Group: NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/in-senate-poll-aug-18/

Quote

IN Senate Poll

Donnelly  50.7%
Braun  38.6%

If Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh
Donnelly 39.4%
Braun 38.5%

If Donnelly votes against Kavanugh
Donnelly 45.3%
Braun 38.0%

And this is a Republican-leaning pollster.

The internals look weird.  But like... Really??

[JimmyJames 12,271]

35 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Me, this morning: Man haven't heard much about Joe Donnelly in a while. That dude must be toast in Indiana.

Trafalgar Group: NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/in-senate-poll-aug-18/

And this is a Republican-leaning pollster.

The internals look weird.  But like... Really??

If that poll is accurate that’s crazy. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,730]

North Carolina GOP screwed themselves in their upcoming state supreme court races.

Story: 

• The next two elections (2018 and 2020) only involve Republican incumbents. 
• The Republican led legislature passed a law banning judicial primaries.  Dem Gov. vetoed it but was overridden.
• Goal was that the incumbent Republican justices would be the sole Republican running in the general elections but Dems couldn't organize themselves to 1 candidate.  Dems would split their vote and the Republicans retain their seats.  Masterful planning.  What can go wrong.
• Democrat lawyer switches party to Republican and signs up for the election.  Dems organize themselves to only have 1 candidate against the 2 "Republican" candidate.  (and the new Republican guy's last name starts with an A so I guess he will be the first on the ballot.)
• Republicans counter with a new law forbidding candidates changing parties within 90 days before an election.
• Democrat judge tells them to pound sand and invalidates that law.     Now the only appeal can be to the state supreme court which is controlled by the Dems, 4-3.  And the Rep justice might have to recuse herself since she's directly affected.  4-2 Dems.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-carolina/articles/2018-08-13/n-carolina-supreme-court-race-lawsuit-returning-to-court

Starting in 2021, assuming the other justices remain in office, the Dems may control their state supreme court 5-2 or 6-1.  

[Js1 87,182]

28 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

If that poll is accurate that’s crazy. 

Do I think it's accurate? Nope.

Do I think there being a GOP pollster showing him up mean something? Yes.

[Js1 87,182]

19 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

North Carolina GOP screwed themselves in their upcoming state supreme court races.

Story: 

• The next two elections (2018 and 2020) only involve Republican incumbents. 
• The Republican led legislature passed a law banning judicial primaries.  Dem Gov. vetoed it but was overridden.
• Goal was that the incumbent Republican justices would be the sole Republican running in the general elections but Dems couldn't organize themselves to 1 candidate.  Dems would split their vote and the Republicans retain their seats.  Masterful planning.  What can go wrong.
• Democrat lawyer switches party to Republican and signs up for the election.  Dems organize themselves to only have 1 candidate against the 2 "Republican" candidate.  (and the new Republican guy's last name starts with an A so I guess he will be the first on the ballot.)
• Republicans counter with a new law forbidding candidates changing parties within 90 days before an election.
• Democrat judge tells them to pound sand and invalidates that law.     Now the only appeal can be to the state supreme court which is controlled by the Dems, 4-3.  And the Rep justice might have to recuse herself since she's directly affected.  4-2 Dems.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-carolina/articles/2018-08-13/n-carolina-supreme-court-race-lawsuit-returning-to-court

Starting in 2021, assuming the other justices remain in office, the Dems may control their state supreme court 5-2 or 6-1.  

We think the Texas GOP is bad, but the NC GOP is legitimately, possibly, the biggest sack of undemocratic cheaters in America.

[Biff Tannen 46,165]

20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

North Carolina GOP screwed themselves in their upcoming state supreme court races.

Story: 

• The next two elections (2018 and 2020) only involve Republican incumbents. 
• The Republican led legislature passed a law banning judicial primaries.  Dem Gov. vetoed it but was overridden.
• Goal was that the incumbent Republican justices would be the sole Republican running in the general elections but Dems couldn't organize themselves to 1 candidate.  Dems would split their vote and the Republicans retain their seats.  Masterful planning.  What can go wrong.
• Democrat lawyer switches party to Republican and signs up for the election.  Dems organize themselves to only have 1 candidate against the 2 "Republican" candidate.  (and the new Republican guy's last name starts with an A so I guess he will be the first on the ballot.)
• Republicans counter with a new law forbidding candidates changing parties within 90 days before an election.
• Democrat judge tells them to pound sand and invalidates that law.     Now the only appeal can be to the state supreme court which is controlled by the Dems, 4-3.  And the Rep justice might have to recuse herself since she's directly affected.  4-2 Dems.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-carolina/articles/2018-08-13/n-carolina-supreme-court-race-lawsuit-returning-to-court

Starting in 2021, assuming the other justices remain in office, the Dems may control their state supreme court 5-2 or 6-1.  

Lulz.  Eat it dipshits.

[Chad Fuck 18,135]

Lol.  Headline:  

NC GOP trick fucks itself trying to be clever.

[Js1 87,182]

North Carolina GOP is corrupt AF.

Quote

“If it were a nation state, North Carolina would rank right in the middle of the global league table – a deeply flawed, partly free democracy that is only slightly ahead of the failed democracies that constitute much of the developing world," wrote Andrew Reynolds, a professor of political science at the University of North Carolina and co-founder of the EIC, which has measured 213 elections in 153 countries since 2012.

Quote

Following Mr McCrory’s election loss, he signed into law two bills that would greatly strip power from the incoming Democratic governor. 

The new House Bill 17 cut the number of people Mr Cooper can appoint to Cabinet positions, and requiring approval from the Republican-controlled Senate. He also signed Senate Bill 4, increasing the state elections board from five to eight officials – with four to be chosen by the governor and four by the Senate. 

Quote

North Carolina recently came under fire for its voter identification laws that a federal court determined targeted the black population “with almost surgical precision”. The laws prompted the NAACP to sue North Carolina for voter suppression late October. 

 

[Chad Fuck 18,135]

NC is almost like the micro-version of national GOP.  They know they're on the short end of the demographic shift, so they're doing anything they can to maintain power.  Ain't going to work.

[Gil Bang 26,239]

Yes, Florida again

 

NEW SMYRNA BEACH — A social media ad buy in which one candidate says his opponent has passed on genetically defective breast milk to “unsuspecting families” has turned into an ugly campaign mystery.

With some voters having already cast mail-in ballots and early voting starting Saturday, what isn’t clear in the race for New Smyrna Beach City Commission Zone 1 race is who is responsible for the offensive Facebook ad posted on Tuesday labeled “paid for by John Redmond Campaign”?

Not Redmond, he claims. He said he never bought the ad and offered at least some evidence to that effect.

“My Facebook account obviously was hacked,” Redmond said in a phone call Wednesday. He shared a screenshot of an email sent from Facebook at 10:35 a.m. Tuesday, alerting him to a login “from a device or location you don’t usually use.”

After lunchtime Tuesday he said he tried to stop the activity, but had trouble, and it wasn’t until much later that night, following attendance at a City Commission meeting, he decided to deactivate his personal and political accounts entirely.

“I’m not a computer guy. It took me a long time to figure out what was happening,” Redmond said.

Meanwhile, opponent Jessica Realin, the candidate attacked in the ad, and some of her supporters spent much of Tuesday posting on Facebook pages in reaction to the ad, leading to a change.org petition urging Redmond to drop out of the race. As of late Wednesday afternoon, more than 70 people had signed it.

Redmond, a 57-year-old retired businessman and educator, did buy six other $100 Facebook ads since July 17. They all tout his political positions and pledges, including an anti-growth platform. None reference Realin, a 33-year-old public relations and marketing professional, or two other opponents in the primary, Peggy Belflower and Michael Kolody.

Then came Tuesday and the breast milk ad, which showed photos of Realin, who in 2015 co-founded the Florida Mothers’ Milk Bank, which provides human milk to 33 neonatial intensive care units across the state.

The ad reads: “Possibly due to genetic defects in her family donating her breast milk might pass on her inferior genes to unsuspecting families. Her son [name omitted] was born at 24 weeks of gestation in January 2012, and her daughter [name omitted] was born in December 2013 at 29 weeks. Notice the rainbow pin. This is an editorial comment.”

The ad included the children’s names but The News-Journal has deleted them after speaking with Realin. She said she wears the rainbow pin in remembrance of the Pulse nightclub mass shooting victims, as her husband was a first responder at the scene in Orlando on June 12, 2016.

The ad was made inactive later Tuesday. Facebook media representatives did not, in an email, address direct questions about the matter.

‘A convenient story’

Realin and supporters had captured images and were sharing them widely, calling the ad “immature” and “disgusting.”

Jill Dempsey, for instance, wrote: “I don’t know this guy but he definitely has some boundaries issues. Better we see it now then when he is sitting on the city Commission!”

Realin said she had attempted unsuccessfully to reach Redmond by phone Tuesday morning.

“It’s a convenient story, in my opinion,” Realin said in a phone interview Wednesday about Redmond’s explanation. “Whoever hacked him had to want to pay $100. I honestly was hoping he was hacked, but either way — if he was hacked, why didn’t he just answer the phone calls?”

Redmond responded: “My phone number is everywhere. I don’t have a phone call from her. I don’t have an email from her. I’m not saying she didn’t (try to reach me), but if she tried on Facebook, I don’t have that Facebook app on my phone.

“I wish I would have gotten that message,” Redmond said. “It doesn’t make any sense.”

Redmond said he will continue his campaign for the commission seat.

“Of course I’m going to remain in the race,” he said.

[READ MORE: NSB mayor Jim Hathaway ‘retiring from politics,’ won’t run]

[READ MORE: 6 newcomers contend with growth in NSB mayoral race]

‘I don’t believe it’

New Smyrna Beach Residents Coalition co-founder Sally Gillespie — a close observer of the race and of city politics — said it would be very much out of character for Redmond to attack another candidate in this way.

“I’ve been to all of the forums,” Gillespie said. “He’s never attacked any other candidates. ... I just ... I don’t believe it.”

The influential residents coalition, founded years ago as an advocacy group to give locals a louder voice in city government, has made assessments of all the candidates.

It notes that Redmond moved to the city in 2014 and has “no record of public involvement in growth-related issues prior to his filing.” And it says the same thing of Realin, no record of invovlement in growth issues. While it notes she started the Mothers Milk Bank of Florida, it states she has “little knowledge or understanding of the issues being debated during this election cycle.”

Realin, in another post, accused the coalition of backing Redmond.

“We can agree to disagree on issues but; this gives me a taste of what he will be like if he is voted as our CITY COMMISSIONER,” Realin wrote. “Also, I let New Smyrna Beach Residents Coalition know about this and shared since I know this is the candidate they are behind. Just felt they should know what his character represents.”

Gillespie said Wednesday that Realin is wrong about the coalition endorsing a single candidate.

Realin’s friend and neighbor, Britney Gaither, said she noticed the ad in her Facebook feed around 2 p.m. Tuesday. At 9:53 p.m., it became inactive.

“If (Redmond) was hacked and he can prove it, then that’s great,” Gaither said. “We can put this behind us. But if he wasn’t, ... I think that he should step down.”

It remained unclear on Wednesday afternoon whether, or more particularly how, a potential Facebook ad-hack might be investigated. Who bought the ad? Might it be a campaign violation? Those questions remained unanswered by Volusia Elections Supervisor Lisa Lewis Wednesday afternoon.

But at least some seem to think it is a mystery worth solving.

Gaither never imagined a municipal race could get so unusual. She said it has many in town talking about how the ad came to be.

“That’s what we’re all trying to figure out,” Gaither said. “How did it get this nasty?”

Candidates from Zones 1 and 2 and the mayor’s race are all invited to participate in a public question-and-answer forum at 5:30 p.m. Thursday at the Sugar Mill Country Club inside the Sugar Mill subdivision at 100 Club House Circle.

Edited August 15, 2018 by Gil Bang

[cactusflinthead 27,627]

At the same time, there's very little evidence historically to suggest that the underlying dynamics of election cycles change much in their last 90 days or so -- barring some sort of catastrophic national or international event. Wrote Cook Political Report namesake Charlie Cookprophetically last week:

"In modern history, we've never seen a directional change in the last three months of a midterm election campaign. Waves can stay the same or increase in the closing months, but they don't reverse direction or dissipate."

 

Cilizza 

[Js1 87,182]

So the red wave will be yuger? I hear Tuesday was amazing, all those Republicans winning their primaries. Unheard of!

[Fozzz 152]

A US Senate candidate from Mississippi:

 

I wonder why stuff like this isn't treated similarly as Holocaust denialism.  

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,871]

28 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

A US Senate candidate from Mississippi:

 

I wonder why stuff like this isn't treated similarly as Holocaust denialism.  

 Lee has always seem to have gotten the Erwin Rommel treatment.  Dude on the wrong side of history, but not really the wrongest of the wrong and some upside to him.  I don't really feel like even the 'illiterate left' hate-hate Lee.

[Ghost of LL 15,698]

28 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 Lee has always seem to have gotten the Erwin Rommel treatment.  Dude on the wrong side of history, but not really the wrongest of the wrong and some upside to him.  I don't really feel like even the 'illiterate left' hate-hate Lee.

No.  No--I hate-hate Lee.  He was decidedly pro-slavery.  He was a traitor and a war criminal who had Union POWs shot because of the color of their skin.  

[TheRealRonWeaver? 1,279]

21 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

No.  No--I hate-hate Lee.  He was decidedly pro-slavery.  He was a traitor and a war criminal who had Union POWs shot because of the color of their skin.  

This.  I think it would have come as rather shocking news to his slaves that he was anti-slavery--Wesley Norris, for example.

Edited August 16, 2018 by TheRealRonWeaver?

[Js1 87,182]

20 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

No.  No--I hate-hate Lee.  He was decidedly pro-slavery.  He was a traitor and a war criminal who had Union POWs shot because of the color of their skin.  

No, he was SO, THE MOST, BIGLIEST anti-slavery and anti-secession that he commanded the traitorous army of the Confederacy out of loyalty to Virginia, not the fact it was fighting to protect slavery and defend its secession.

[Js1 87,182]

Dumbass 

 

[Js1 87,182]

First House tracking forecast by 538.  (DURR IT SAID HILLARY WOULD WIN DURR RED WAVE - getting that out of the way)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Average gain is +35 for the Democrats.  75% chance of the House flipping. 

Notable seats:

TX-7 is basically 50/50 right now

TX-23 is about 75% chance of flipping from Hurd

CA-48 (Putin's bitch Dana R.) 67% chance of flipping

Edited August 16, 2018 by Js1

[Gil Bang 26,239]

Rouda seems to be running a solid campaign in CA48

[yaqdum 182]

 

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 Lee has always seem to have gotten the Erwin Rommel treatment.  Dude on the wrong side of history, but not really the wrongest of the wrong and some upside to him.  I don't really feel like even the 'illiterate left' hate-hate Lee.

No.  No--I hate-hate Lee.  He was decidedly pro-slavery.  He was a traitor and a war criminal who had Union POWs shot because of the color of their skin.  

this.  lee got the rommel treatment in more ways than one.  certainly his legacy has benefited from the wrong side of history angle, but also his aura as tactical genius has a lot more air than substance.

certainly he was a very capable combat officer as long as his role was defensive and he was on familiar ground with a supportive civilian population.  lee was an engineer, and prior to the war he designed and oversaw construction of forts for the u.s. army.  he understood defense.  when pursued in familiar and helpful virginia he could quickly set a defensive posture on high ground that could bloody the nose of an aggressor.  but you plop him in pennsylvania where he had to play the aggressor role, and he was a miserable flop.  really it was stupid to expect otherwise.  most folks here will understand without explanation if i say you suddenly take the best defensive coordinator in college football and give him the keys to the offense and expect equal results immediately you are a fool.  that's what happened in pennsylvania.  that shouldn't have been the problem it was, except lee began to believe his press clippings.  he thought he should be unstoppable in an offensive role in unfamiliar territory.  he was so determined to prove his genius label that he took astonishingly stupid chances and caused the death and ruination of many of his best men in the increasing desire to push through.  it is said that general pickett -- famous for pickett's charge -- almost wouldn't speak to lee after the war.  lee's reckless ruin of pickett's good men exposed his foolhardiness to all the men in his command.  longstreet in particular was astounded and lee never regained his full confidence and support.

now add that to goll's observation and you just have to shake your head.

if you want to look for a rommel of the south, longstreet is a good place to start.  if you want a rommelpot player instead, here 'tis:

[Tuco 5,093]

Regarding Lee, if you are a South fan, what else are you going on to celebrate? Slavery? Losing? Sweet tea? Lee gets his respect because he is the only thing that could fill the niche.

[Huckleberry 34,644]

Well there's the option not to celebrate anything having to do with a shitty part of your past. You don't see me posting about what a great soldier Jack Chevigny was to repair his image on a Texas football forum.

Edited August 16, 2018 by Huckleberry

[Aqua Buddha 14,806]

3 hours ago, Fozzz said:

A US Senate candidate from Mississippi:

 

I wonder why stuff like this isn't treated similarly as Holocaust denialism.  

[Js1 87,182]

3 hours ago, Fozzz said:

A US Senate candidate from Mississippi:

 

I wonder why stuff like this isn't treated similarly as Holocaust denialism.  

A Governor candidate from California has appeared!

 

[atomheartbevo 90,646]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

No.  No--I hate-hate Lee.  He was decidedly pro-slavery.  He was a traitor and a war criminal who had Union POWs shot because of the color of their skin.  

He allowed American POWs to be executed. 

[Js1 87,182]

Fuck you Texas GOP.  Just fuck right off.  You already lost once and they're trying again.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/08/14/dallas-county-republicans-renew-effort-remove-least-82-democrats-november-ballot

[atomheartbevo 90,646]

52 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Fuck you Texas GOP.  Just fuck right off.  You already lost once and they're trying again.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/08/14/dallas-county-republicans-renew-effort-remove-least-82-democrats-november-ballot

Republicans scared shitless.  News at 11.