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2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted

The Constitution sucks bigly.

Quote

Whereas most House seats have roughly the same number of constituents, a majority of the Senate now represents just 18 percent of the nation’s population. And this fall, the Senate will come down to seats that are much whiter, more rural and pro-Trump than the nation as a whole.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/20/opinion/midterms-democrats-republicans-blue-wave.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 6,648

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

The Constitution sucks bigly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/20/opinion/midterms-democrats-republicans-blue-wave.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

We are in serious need of reform. The rural morons are going to be holding this country hostage, if they already aren’t. Bill Maher talked about this a few weeks ago and how the Senate is going to be all rural morons while the cities continue to grow but will be underrepresented in Congress . 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,356

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

We are in serious need of reform. The rural morons are going to be holding this country hostage, if they already aren’t. Bill Maher talked about this a few weeks ago and how the Senate is going to be all rural morons while the cities continue to grow but will be underrepresented in Congress . 

The rural morons shouldn’t have been wholesale neglected by democrats. Or to put it better, the democrats should have done a better job of pandering to the rural morons. 

Mistakes were made.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,391

Posted
Posted
On 8/20/2018 at 3:32 PM, Fozzz said:

The Constitution sucks bigly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/20/opinion/midterms-democrats-republicans-blue-wave.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

Eventually the House may be mainly democrats from large counties, and the senate will be dark red from lower population states. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Eventually the House may be mainly democrats from large counties, and the senate will be dark red from lower population states. 

The dems have enough of their own small states to win the Senate particularly if DC and PR get statehood.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4,378

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

 

"In their Voters Guide to the Democratic and Republican primaries for Florida’s 27th Congressional District, the Herald said they were “most impressed” by Rodriguez Aguilera, a business consultant who has claimed that she has been in communication with extraterrestrials throughout her life, and that she boarded a spaceship manned by three large, blonde beings when she was 7."

So 3 priests?  Uncles?

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Js1

Js1 85,056

Posted
Posted

When you talk about a wave, a lot of seats that didn't seem in play somehow end up in play.

Besides CA-50 now with Hunter's indictment...

GA-7 Democratic candidate has a poll showing her up 2 on the R-incumbent (R+9 district)

NC-2 incumbent R George Holding sends out email saying his internals show him down 3 to the D challenger (R+7 district)

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,391

Posted
Posted

Trump and the Rs should stick to one message that always resonates with their base:  Supreme Court and other federal judges.   Gotta scare the voters that the activists judges are coming.   They will force your kid to be transgender if you don't select the white guy with an R next to his name.

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Js1

Js1 85,056

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Where's that GA-7 poll? That'd be harder to flip than the 6th and we just went through all that shot with Ossoff (of course the election servers were to be held due to a lawsuit and were wiped anyways).

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/internal-poll-suggests-tight-congressional-race-atlanta-suburbs/FADiwN0GjlUzP9ZY3yNKxM/

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Should I expect any polls for tx 31 (MJ vs Carter) or is it just fingers crossed on Election Day?

538 is estimating 52 to 45 with Carter having an 80% chance of winning. The main sites list it as likely Republican except RCP which has it as safe. Interestingly their prediction is about the same as the Trump v. Clinton 2016 race in Wilco including the Libertarian getting 3%.

There are about 60 races that are more likely to flip on most sites, so if TX31 goes Democratic that gives us some idea how many seats overall will be flipping.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,391

Posted
Posted

Fox News poll results from earlier this week:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/08/22/fox-news-poll-democrats-maintain-lead-in-race-for-house.html

breakdown of individual questions:  http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/08/22/fox-news-poll-822.html

Quote

Democrats are in a strong position for the midterms, according to the latest Fox News poll. 

Several findings point to the potential for a blue map in November: 

- President Trump’s job rating remains underwater.

- Republicans alone say the economy is in positive shape. 

- The GOP tax law is less popular (40 percent favorable) than Obamacare (51 percent favorable).

- The Republican Party is less popular (39 percent favorable) than the Democratic Party (50 percent favorable). 

- Optimism about life for the next generation of Americans is down eight points from last year. 

- There is greater enthusiasm to vote in the midterms among out-of-power Democrats.

Trump's approval had started to move upwards with this poll but that was before even Fox News is running articles with titles like Hush Money timeline.

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Js1

Js1 85,056

Posted
Posted
Quote

 Approval of Special Counsel Robert Mueller stands at 59 percent, up 11 points since July, and 40 percent expect the investigation will find Trump committed criminal or impeachable offenses, up 5 points

Awesome.

MFA polls +15

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3,903

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Fox News poll results from earlier this week:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/08/22/fox-news-poll-democrats-maintain-lead-in-race-for-house.html

breakdown of individual questions:  http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/08/22/fox-news-poll-822.html

Trump's approval had started to move upwards with this poll but that was before even Fox News is running articles with titles like Hush Money timeline.

Some more..... #fakenews

Quote

With Election Day just over two months away, more 2016 Hillary Clinton voters are “extremely” interested in the midterms than Trump voters (58 vs. 48 percent). They are also more enthusiastic about casting a ballot (51 vs. 37 percent) and more certain they will vote (76 vs. 67 percent). 

Another takeaway: it comes down to women.  While the vote preference among men splits, women back the Democratic congressional candidate by 19 points.  In 2014, women backed the Democrat by 4 points, while men went for the Republican by 16. 

Overall, when the ballot results are narrowed to “extremely” interested voters, Democrats hold a 56-38 percent advantage.  And when narrowed to counties where the 2016 presidential vote was close (Clinton and Trump within 10 points), Democrats are up by 45-39 percent. 

“The Democratic edge in battleground counties is telling,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.  “These are where the competitive districts are that they need to flip to put Nancy Pelosi back in the Speaker’s chair.”

Voters say health care and the economy (18 percent each) will be most important to their vote for Congress, followed closely by party control of the House (14 percent), President Trump (13 percent), and immigration (10 percent). 

 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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