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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Js1

Js1 87186

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think a lot of people are interpreting Bernie's 2015-16 appeal as something more than what it is. There is a far left populist wing obviously, and he appeals to it, but a lot of the Bernie phenomenon was a product of an artificially constricted field and an establishment choice that was as best uninspiring to most Democrats in addition to being deeply inauthentic. Bernie wasn't just Bernie. He was the alternative to Hillary, which was a powerful enough motivator that 1/10 Bernie primary voters flipped to Trump in the general election. 

2019 will be a much deeper field, with an older Bernie and a much younger and more likable competition that won't have Clinton's baggage. Bernie's slide into the middle of the pack has already happened and by next November when the top 3-5 emerge,  I don't see him in the top tier. 

I don't really see Biden either because I think he's too old and it's starting to show, but he's really, really popular across the ideological board with Democrats. If he came out fairly early with a package deal of himself and someone like Kamala Harris, Joaquin Castro or Tulsi Gabbard as VP and heir apparent and said he was only running for a single term to right the ship, he could very well run the table. 
 

If he chose Tulsi, im not sure he’d get my vote. 

But I did read a prediction Biden would most likely be the “compromise” candidate of the progressive wing and the moderate wing and then pledge 1 term, handing the reins to his VP. 

Biden-Harris would curb stomp Trump. Would Pence be allowed to debate her? Mother may not approve. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I actually agree with this, but I still can't tell if you're trolling or not.

Spoiler Alert: I'm not. And it's hilarious that the impression is that people can't be dynamic and fluid with political thinking/feeling and if they are, they are trolling...espeically funny when liberals love to embrace/champion fluidity in other...ways.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted (edited)

I know y’all are going to hate this but Beto 2020 is going to be a real thing, even if he doesn’t beat Cruz.

Could Beto take the state of Texas against Trump or Pence in 2020?  I gotta think that’s a realistic possibility.

Texas is the ball game for the GOP.

If Texas went blue in 2016, Hillary would be president.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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David Dennison

David Dennison 19543

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I know y’all are going to hate this but Beto 2020 is going to be a real thing, even if he doesn’t beat Cruz.

Could Beto take the state of Texas against Trump or Pence in 2020?  I gotta think that’s a realistic possibility.

Texas is the ball game for the GOP.

If Texas went blue in 2016, Hillary would be president.

I am voting for Beto in November. 

I will not vote for him in a presidential primary.

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troph

troph 25227

Posted
Posted
I do know what deism is...I've been a deist for a long time.

Let me 'splain it to you:

 

There is a god.

 

Welp...we're done.

 

“There is a god, he doesn’t give a shit about your personal life.

 

Welp... we’re done.”

 

....That’s more like it.

 

 

Edit - sorry in tapa didn’t see how far the thread had moved on.

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gmr548

gmr548 16701

Posted
Posted
I am voting for Beto in November. 
I will not vote for him in a presidential primary.
If he won the Senate election I'd be extremely disappointed if he turned around and ran for President in 2020. A huge part of the appeal of his campaign is that he would make a point to do no such thing, which is the total opposite of Cruz.

If he lost, I'd hope the Ds could come up with a better option, which I'd vote for in the primary, but I'd obviously vote for him over Trump without even thinking. All this is assuming he's even interested.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Js1

Js1 87186

Posted
Posted (edited)

This + Nelson surging into a tie with Scott in FL now that he’s on the air = very likely 50/50 Senate. Another poll had McCaskill up on Hawley that wasn’t a GOP funded poll  

Keep IN, MT, WV, FL, MO. Pick up NV, AZ. Then you only need to keep ND or pick up one other (TN, TX) to get 51. Democrats need an inside straight and it’s looking less unlikely by the day. 

On Election Night, if Manchin gets called really early and Nelson looks in good shape, the rest may domino. 

Edited by Js1
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13732

Posted
Posted

Last week while watching the UT game on the Fox Sports app, I was inundated with anti-Nelson ads.   Seems like a poor use of campaign funds for Scott or those supporting him to advertise to me living in Texas.      I didn’t have a vpn spoofing my location anywhere. Just poor decisions or a glitch. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

This + Nelson surging into a tie with Scott in FL now that he’s on the air = very likely 50/50 Senate. Another poll had McCaskill up on Hawley that wasn’t a GOP funded poll  

Keep IN, MT, WV, FL, MO. Pick up NV, AZ. Then you only need to keep ND or pick up one other (TN, TX) to get 51. Democrats need an inside straight and it’s looking less unlikely by the day. 

On Election Night, if Manchin gets called really early and Nelson looks in good shape, the rest may domino. 

I think Gillum brings in enough new voters to put Nelson over the top. I only worry about ND at this point, but I think she holds on too for a Democratic sweep of the seats they hold. I also feel good about Democrats flipping AZ, NV and TX, while still having a good shot at TN.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23721

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Last week while watching the UT game on the Fox Sports app, I was inundated with anti-Nelson ads.   Seems like a poor use of campaign funds for Scott or those supporting him to advertise to me living in Texas.      I didn’t have a vpn spoofing my location anywhere. Just poor decisions or a glitch. 

Saw the same thing watching the game from the beach in Port A. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Bernie Sanders ran against the worst candidate ever (Hillary) and lost by 3 million votes.  

He's not winning anything.

Bernie will win in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada to start things off. South Carolina will be the first real test to see if someone else is even in it. If someone else wins in SC we could see 2 or 3 different candidates win on Super Tuesday with Bernie favored in about half the states. If Bernie wins SC the race is essentially over at that point.

Any candidate that might beat beat Bernie has to win SC and the southern Super Tuesday states. I don't see anyone yet who looks like they could win in the south.

Edited by RayDog
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Js1

Js1 87186

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Saw the same thing watching the game from the beach in Port A. 

For a rich dude, Scott is an idiot. He dumped millions of his own cash to “bury” Nelson all summer and never made it out of the margin of error in any poll (1-3 point lead). Nelson strategically waited until after Labor Day and suddenly, 3 straight tied polls. 

The momentum is not with Scott. (Yes, Herman, it’s a real thing)

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Js1

Js1 87186

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, RayDog said:

Bernie will win in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada to start things off. South Carolina will be the first real rest to see if someone else is even in it. If someone else wins in SC we could see 2 or 3 different candidates win on Super Tuesday with Bernie favored in about half the states. If Bernie wins SC the race is essentially over at that point.

Any candidate that might beat beat Bernie has to win SC and the southern Super Tuesday states. I don't see anyone yet who looks like they could win in the south.

Well, Warren or Biden could deny Bernie NH. Nevada might be more amenable to their neighbor, Harris. SC is fertile ground for Warren/Booker. 

Bernie got curbstomped with minority progressive and moderates. He won’t win SC. He got trounced in the South. 

Edited by Js1
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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27627

Posted
Posted

Bernie is not going to get the nod. He did what in the south? How did he fare with POC anywhere?

I can tell you. He stank it up. It has not improved. If anything it's worse. 

Joe Biden does not have Hillary's need for a forced pleasantries. He's a known quantity. Like his policies or not he's closer to the middle than any other of the D options. It is still a long time to go for all that. That's so many Scaramuccis from now I can't do the math in my head. 

This is the tail end of summer. Nut cutting, door knocking, text and radio and targeted buys. I have no interest in 2020. 

Who is getting cut off from the money?

Who needs the dollars to stay in the game?

Who is going to say something stupid on a hot mic?

 

I don't give a shit about Bernie. If he ain't helping, get the hell out of the way. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

1.1% African-American. 1.6% Hispanic. Fits the profile of the States Bernie won. The whitest ones. He doesn't appeal to minorities. 

Healthcare, a higher minimum wage, free childcare, free college, better housing, prison reform, immigration reform, pot legalization, etc... appeal to minorities and non-minorities.

Oh, and in case you didn't notice a lot of progressive Democrats winning primaries are minorities. 

Edited by RayDog
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Js1

Js1 87186

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, RayDog said:

Healthcare, a higher minimum wage, free childcare, free college, better housing, prison reform, immigration reform, pot legalization, etc... appeal to minorities and non-minorities.

Oh, and in case you didn't notice a lot of progressive Democrats winning primaries are minorities. 

Yes. The minorities are winning the progressive minority votes. Bernie isn’t a minority. He struggled with them mightily in 2016

Edited by Js1
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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14806

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, RayDog said:

Bernie will win in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada to start things off. South Carolina will be the first real test to see if someone else is even in it. If someone else wins in SC we could see 2 or 3 different candidates win on Super Tuesday with Bernie favored in about half the states. If Bernie wins SC the race is essentially over at that point.

Any candidate that might beat beat Bernie has to win SC and the southern Super Tuesday states. I don't see anyone yet who looks like they could win in the south.

Keep in mind there will be more candidates this time around.  He only did well last time because he was the only real alternative to Hillary.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, RayDog said:

Bernie will win in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada to start things off. South Carolina will be the first real test to see if someone else is even in it. If someone else wins in SC we could see 2 or 3 different candidates win on Super Tuesday with Bernie favored in about half the states. If Bernie wins SC the race is essentially over at that point.

Any candidate that might beat beat Bernie has to win SC and the southern Super Tuesday states. I don't see anyone yet who looks like they could win in the south.

Bernie big obstacle is the black vote, especially in the southern states 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28930

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, RayDog said:

Healthcare, a higher minimum wage, free childcare, free college, better housing, prison reform, immigration reform, pot legalization, etc... appeal to minorities and non-minorities.

Oh, and in case you didn't notice a lot of progressive Democrats winning primaries are minorities. 

That doesn't change the fact that Bernie Sanders doesn't appeal to minority voters and only won the whitest States in the 2016 Democratic primaries. That's why he lost the nomination to Hillary Clinton. That's why he's going to lose it again in 2020. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Keep in mind there will be more candidates this time around.  He only did well last time because he was the only real alternative to Hillary.

There will also be a lot more minority progressives in 2020 backed by Bernie and out to primary old corporate controlled dems. They are almost all following Bernie's platform, so he will connect much better with minority voters this time around.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

Posted
Posted

There's no question in my mind that the road to the Senate majority goes through Tennessee.

Beto's real role in this election cycle is drawing money and attention away from the Republicans challenging Heitkamp, Donnelley, and McCaskill.  That's a damned important role, and he's playing it really, really well.

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Js1

Js1 87186

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

There's no question in my mind that the road to the Senate majority goes through Tennessee.

Beto's real role in this election cycle is drawing money and attention away from the Republicans challenging Heitkamp, Donnelley, and McCaskill.  That's a damned important role, and he's playing it really, really well.

A Democrat at +39 in favorability after Labor Day is amazing. In Tennessee! Bredesen won every county in his 06 governor campaign. Even parts of Tennessee they have had a republican representing them since the Civil War. He literally may squeak this out because he’s still popular and he’s a Corker/Alexander/Haslam type of Tennesssee politician. 

Of note, he’s overperforming (or Blackburn is underperforming) the governor race by 15 points. Shades of Texas and Beto/Abbott. 

Edited by Js1
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90650

Posted
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Posted
4 hours ago, Js1 said:

A Democrat at +39 in favorability after Labor Day is amazing. In Tennessee! Bredesen won every county in his 06 governor campaign. Even parts of Tennessee they have had a republican representing them since the Civil War. He literally may squeak this out because he’s still popular and he’s a Corker/Alexander/Haslam type of Tennesssee politician. 

Of note, he’s overperforming (or Blackburn is underperforming) the governor race by 15 points. Shades of Texas and Beto/Abbott. 

Tennessee reminds me of Oklahoma, and not just because of the inbreeding.  You can be a red state, and have Democrats who transcend the party lines - a lot of people do not realize Oklahoma has had Democratic state officials (including governor) within the past 10-15 years.  These aren't of the old Dixiecrat variety either.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

Since most progressives have been polling low I really like Abrams' chances. Gillum's too.

Bernie backed both of them early so those will be some important alliances going forward for the progressive movement.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26894

Posted
Posted (edited)

Salazar? Salazar? Maybe more like Fitlumpar?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/06/nyregion/julia-salazar-keith-hernandez-mets-lawsuit.html

 

An Arrest? An Affair? Keith Hernandez? Just Another Day in the Julia Salazar Campaign

Image

Julia Salazar, a candidate for State Senate from Brooklyn, filed a lawsuit in 2013 over her arrest in a dispute with the ex-wife of the former New York Mets first baseman Keith Hernandez. The charges were dismissed, and she was awarded $20,000 in damages, her lawyer said.CreditCreditGabriela Bhaskar for The New York Times

By Jesse McKinley

Sept. 6, 2018

ALBANY — It was, in the end, an arrest about nothing.

In the latest twist in the Zelig-like story of Julia Salazar — born-again democratic socialist, would-be immigrant and actual New York State Senate candidate in Brooklyn — news broke on Thursday of her 2011 arrest involving a dispute with the ex-wife of the former New York Mets first baseman Keith Hernandez.

The charge? Attempted identity theft.

The legal skirmish between the two women also included an assertion that Ms. Salazar, 27, had an affair with Mr. Hernandez, an allegation that both denied but which nonetheless propelled the already peculiar political story into the realm of media mania, with the candidate being pursued down a street outside City Hall on Thursday by question-barking reporters and a television camera crew.

[Scrutiny of Julia Salazar’s history revealed inconsistencies that threaten to undermine her candidacy.]

The newest revelation, first reported by DailyMail.com, about Ms. Salazar dates to 2010 when Kai Hernandez, then Mr. Hernandez’s estranged wife, filed a police report alleging that Ms. Salazar, then a 19-year-old attending Columbia University, had attempted “to gain access to my bank accounts by fraudulently pretending to be me” in a phone call to Ms. Hernandez’s bank.

 

At the time, Ms. Hernandez also accused Ms. Salazar of a range of other crimes, including stealing more than $10,000 in cash, nearly $1,000 in wine and $1,175 in Pottery Barn gift cards. Ms. Salazar had been a neighbor of Ms. Hernandez in Tequesta, Fla., and house-sat for her on several occasions, according to court documents.

The couple divorced in February 2011. The next month, Ms. Salazar was arrested on charges of criminal use of personal information, according to police reports.

 

Those charges, however, were dismissed and Ms. Salazar filed a lawsuit in 2013 against Ms. Hernandez alleging that her “false accusations” and “character assassination” had led to the humiliation of “being handcuffed, being fingerprinted and having to pose for mug shots.” An amended complaint, filed by Ms. Salazar’s lawyer, contained the suggestion of the affair, used as an example of Ms. Hernandez’s dishonesty and malfeasance toward his client. The complaint also noted that Ms. Salazar had known Mr. Hernandez since childhood.

“Julia considered Keith to be a father figure,” the complaint read.

After a four-year legal battle, the case resolved in Ms. Salazar’s favor last March with a $20,000 payment to her, according to her lawyer, Adam Hecht.

Ms. Salazar, who is running in the Democratic primary for a State Senate seat representing Brooklyn, claimed she was defamed by Kai Hernandez, the ex-wife of Keith Hernandez, a retired professional baseball player.

“Kai Hernandez’s bizarre and fraudulent attempts to defame and victimize Julia were recognized as baseless by the authorities, who declined to file charges, and this matter was resolved,” Mr. Hecht said in a statement. “Keith, Kai and Julia agree that there was no affair. We have no further comment on this.”

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The revelations only added to the snowballing, stranger-than-fiction tale of Ms. Salazar, whose insurgent campaign has been buffeted by a series of articles outlining discrepancies in her personal biography. Among the inconsistencies are her campaign’s assertion that she was an immigrant from Colombia, though she was actually born and raised in the United States, and the implication that she had graduated from Columbia. (She conceded in an interview with The New York Times that while she had completed her course work, she had not graduated and did not intend to.)

Other curiosities in her biography include her embrace of left-wing politics (she is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America) after serving as the president of a conservative, right-to-life group in college. Raised in a Roman Catholic home, Ms. Salazar also once served as the Columbia chapter president of Christians United for Israel, before renouncing that group and converting to Judaism.

The involvement of Mr. Hernandez, now a Mets television broadcaster on SNY, also brought on a barrage of jokes about “Seinfeld,” the famous show about nothing, which the ballplayer made several appearances on. A spokeswoman for the network had no additional comment beyond the denial of any affair.

Ms. Salazar is challenging State Senator Martin M. Dilan to represent a North Brooklyn district. On Thursday, a week before the Sept. 13 primary, Ms. Salazar happened to be at City Hall for a photo shoot when she was engaged by the gaggle of reporters.

Asked why she filed the lawsuit, Ms. Salazar was succinct.

“Because false accusations were made against me,” she said.

Edited by RDCanecutter
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