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2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

TahoeHorn

TahoeHorn 107

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/27/2018 at 9:40 PM, berlinerbaer said:

I've met Meghan Scoggins a couple of times and left with the sense that she knew what she was doing. Getting quoted by the WSJ confirms that.

Looking at the district she's running in, there's no way that seat isn't a flip in November. Hopefully it's one of several flips in suburban Houston.

Which district?

 

I don't see any district in Houston in play.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

What's the Cook pvi?

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

https://www.cookpolitical.com/pvi-map-and-district-list

Edited by TahoeHorn
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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, TahoeHorn said:

Which district?

 

I don't see any district in Houston in play.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

What's the Cook pvi?

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

https://www.cookpolitical.com/pvi-map-and-district-list

I was talking Texas State House district 28, not US House. Incumbent John Zerwas has run unopposed since 2010. That district has really changed since then (only 47% white and only 22% Hispanic, so it's full of minorities more likely to vote).

Switching gears to the US House, you don't even think Culberson's district is in play?

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

I was talking Texas State House district 28, not US House. Incumbent John Zerwas has run unopposed since 2010. That district has really changed since then (only 47% white and only 22% Hispanic, so it's full of minorities more likely to vote).

Switching gears to the US House, you don't even think Culberson's district is in play?

Charlie Cook only has it as a toss up. 

Sessions and Hurd moved to Lean from more solid standing. 

None of this is good enough for Tahoe to admit they might be in play

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Dr. Teeth

Dr. Teeth 5832

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


This. There is no “physician, heal thyself” option for the GOP. It is beyond redemption or saving. The only option is for an outside party to euthanize it.

I was told that if they got NY Times profiles, they would be better. 

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, bolverk said:

Hey @Onboard 2.0! Give us your thoughts on Stewart's victory in VA. You live there, correct? Did you vote for this guy? What's your take on him winning the general?

Dude's not my guy. I didn't vote for him, and don't think he'll win in November (hopefully). 

Edited by Onboard 2.0
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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

Posted
Posted

If the blue wave is running out of steam, someone forgot to tell voters in northeast Wisconsin. 

 

https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17455922/wisconsin-special-elections-results-june

 

The two special elections that Scott Walker tried not to hold went yesterday, and it ended with another state Senate seat in the blue column. Much like the district that flipped in January, Trump won by 16 points. 

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Brew

Brew 3047

Posted
Posted

Hopefully the middle ground areas of the country that swing elections actually swing because the hard right areas are going all in on the Trump train. I’ll be casting a vote for Bredesen here to try and help the change.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23395

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


This. There is no “physician, heal thyself” option for the GOP. It is beyond redemption or saving. The only option is for an outside party to euthanize it.

Sounds suspiciously like "burn it down".

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

Posted
Posted

I would be surprised if a Trump tweet drastically changes votes in a primary but he may be able to encourage some people to show up to vote, which is important in a primary.  It's never easy for an politician to go against their own President or even be highly critical.  This is why you see it make the news when it occurs under any administration.  However we've never had a President take criticism so poorly before and be willing to actively go back up against the offending candidate.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104621

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Sounds suspiciously like "burn it down".

A party that has turned into a mindless cult?  Sure, I don't think there's any cure.

Burning down all of our norms, institutions, and the rule of law? Nope.  That's actually why I want the GOP to go down -- because that's what they stand for now.

Nobody's perfect (lord knows I've criticized the Dems for decades, and will continue to do so).  But in this story, there's a clear set of "bad guys."  They have to go.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40741

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, kevwun said:

The dude who owns the Bunny Ranch in Nevada won the GOP primary in a Nevada state Legislature race yesterday.  He's favored to win in the general.

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Pimp Dennis Hof, the owner of half a dozen legal brothels in Nevada and star of the HBO adult reality series “Cathouse,” won a Republican primary for the state Legislature on Tuesday, ousting a three-term lawmaker.

Hof defeated hospital executive James Oscarson. He’ll face Democrat Lesia Romanov in November, and will be the favored candidate in the Republican-leaning Assembly district.

Hof celebrated his win at a party in Pahrump with Hollywood Madam Heidi Fleiss at his side. 

 

“It’s all because Donald Trump was the Christopher Columbus for me,” Hof told the Associated Press in a phone call. “He found the way and I jumped on it.” 

Hof, who wrote a book titled “The Art of the Pimp,” has dubbed himself “The Trump of Pahrump,” and held a rally with longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone. Hof was in the limelight in 2015, when former NBA player Lamar Odom was found unconscious at Hof’s Love Ranch brothel in Crystal, Nevada, after a four-day, $75,000 stay.

If Hof wins in November, he wouldn’t be the only brothel owner in elected office — Lance Gilman, the owner of the famous Mustang Ranch in northern Nevada, is a Storey County Commissioner.

Voters in November will be voting on closing down brothels at least one of the seven Nevada counties where they’re legally operating. The question will be on the ballot in Lyon County, where Hof owns four brothels. Activists are also gathering signatures to try to get to get measure on the ballot in Nye County, where Hof owns two more brothels in the desert outside the city of Pahrump.

He painted the anti-brothel efforts as political retribution that’s tied to his opponent, but Oscarson and the referendum backers deny any connection.

Most brothels operate in rural areas of Nevada. They’re banned in the counties that contain Las Vegas and Reno.

Hof said Tuesday he’s downsizing his business by selling off some brothels to focus more on politics.

Oscarson and Hof previously faced off in 2016 when Hof ran for the seat as a Libertarian. Oscarson won with 60 percent of the vote.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19331

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Message Board User said:
Quote

 

 

 

After Stewart narrowly defeated Republican rival Nick Freitas on Tuesday, Virginia’s former lieutenant governor, Bill Bolling, said in a tweet, “I am extremely disappointed that a candidate like Corey Stewart could win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. This is clearly not the Republican Party I once knew, loved and proudly served. Every time I think things can’t get worse they do, and there is no end in sight.”

Edited by Pescado_Rojo
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Ragnarok

Ragnarok 103

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

 

After Stewart narrowly defeated Republican rival Nick Freitas on Tuesday, Virginia’s former lieutenant governor, Bill Bolling, said in a tweet, “I am extremely disappointed that a candidate like Corey Stewart could win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. This is clearly not the Republican Party I once knew, loved and proudly served. Every time I think things can’t get worse they do, and there is no end in sight.”

Rino gotta rino.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22600

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Ragnarok said:

Rino gotta rino.

RINO is a term that has always confused me, as the people who get labeled "RINOs" are usually the ones with more traditional Republican beliefs.

The Trumpkins are basically a brand new political party who are just borrowing the Republican name, so technically shouldn't they be the "RINOs?"

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89447

Posted
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Posted
2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Such as?

I don't recall when I first heard the term (I want to say over 10 years ago), but I think it's just a useless term at this point, used by whatever group is controlling the GOP to try and diminish other groups or members of the GOP they don't like.

I've heard it used to describe everybody from John McCain to Ron Paul.

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bolverk

bolverk 29399

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Such as?

McCain, Powell, Weld, Whitman, Bennett, Kemp, Dole, Forbes, George H.W. Bush, Ford, Nixon, and Eisenhower for sure. Even W's embrace of "compassionate conservativism" would be mocked today by what has become mainstream in the Republican Party. Strauss if you're looking closer to home. George Will, David Brooks, and Bill Buckley also come to mind. It should also be noted that Krauthammer isn't much of a Trump fan either.

Edited by bolverk
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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Ronald Reagan supported gun control and immigration while governor of California.  He would most certainly not win the nomination.

The GOP has moved left since then. And he was more conservative than Trump, Romney or McCain.  

GHW Bush was left of Reagan

Bill Clinton would be called a racist right winger by today’s democrats. Look at his platform.  

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14518

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

The GOP has moved left since then. And he was more conservative than Trump, Romney or McCain.  

GHW Bush was left of Reagan

Bill Clinton would be called a racist right winger by today’s democrats. Look at his platform.  

On social issues, the GOP has most certainly not moved left.  Mike Pence is VP for God's sake.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

Posted
Posted

Listen to Reagan on entitlements.  And tell me he’d be a democrat.  Jesus.  He wanted to make social security optional.  

And immigration?  He supported amnesty as a one time deal with the assumption congress would work with him to actually secure the border.  

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