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2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

I'm just guessing, but I'm pretty sure we'll know who controls the House on election night.

 

Same. Because I'm at about a 40 seat pickup.  Only need 23 to control, so it will be more of "we don't know how big the wave was because so many races are going to take weeks."

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9898

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

TLDR -

California counts SLOW.  Some races might not be decided for weeks. Washington too with mail-in ballot.  And rank choice voting in Maine in a competitive district. (~13 or so competitive races amongst these 3 states)

Senate could appear 50/49 for a few weeks until the Mississippi run-off concludes.  3 candidates means no one is getting 50%+1 vote.

 

Eh, maybe.  On the House front, if you see some medium red, safe-ish seats fall, like MD-1, it's probably katie-bar-the-door for the GOP.  Also, if the NJ GOP seats flip easily, I think we will see where things are going.

Edited by Bateshorn
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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Seems like $13 in the family bank account would resonate with a lot of Trumpkins. 

This is the kind of fucked up world that Republicans are living in, that it’s okay to openly mock poor people. 

Pretty sure Jesus had a few things to say about poor people. 

Jesus was obviously a lib. 

The current GOP would support nailing him to the cross. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Seems like $13 in the family bank account would resonate with a lot of Trumpkins. 

This is the kind of fucked up world that Republicans are living in, that it’s okay to openly mock poor people. 

Pretty sure Jesus had a few things to say about poor people. 

It's a misleading tweet about a bullshit blog. 

Basically, Michael Ahern (national GOP, not some little shitbag local Republican) posted the blog to indicate the Simena was lying about being poor.  In 1984 (when she was 8), her stepdad lost his job, then their car, and then their house.  That much is not in question.  They moved into a defunct rural gas station on his parents' property.  Also, not in question.  Simena has talked about living there, without electricity or running water as a kid for three years, which was akin to being homeless.  What Ahern is saying is that she wasn't really poor, because a step-aunt (ex-step-aunt) was quoted as saying that the extended family made sure that the kids were provided for and the NYT obtained court records of the divorce (between Simena's mom and stepdad) that indicated he had paid electricity and water bills in 1985 and 1986.  So, Aherns isn't mocking her for being poor, but rather making the case that she was exaggerating the depths of her poverty. Because I'm sure a family of five living in a rural gas station that had running water and electricity for two out of the three years, with some hand-me-downs from Aunt Bitch, made for a delightful childhood.  Idiots like Ahern think they understand poverty because they went to an off-Broadway version of Oliver.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22598

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Gallup voter enthusiasm measure: "not great news for the Democrats"

% of party "certain to vote"
Democrats 63%
Republicans 65%
 

Dems were plus 8 a month ago.  

Cool link.  Here I'll help:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/243173/parties-voters-keyed-midterm-elections.aspx

Line graph: About six in 10 Democrats and Republicans say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year.

Line graph: Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to be certain theyâll vote, while far fewer independents are certain.

Also, the article says 72/70 D/R split for "absolutely certain," not the numbers you claim.  EDIT: I see that you took the "lean" voters instead of the Party ID ones, surely because they tell the story you want.  Whatever.

But, yeah, I think it's safe for you and your friends to stay home.  You'll be fine.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted (edited)

2006 it was tied in "certain to vote" and Democrats still won the House (31 seat pickup) and almost the Senate (picked up 5 seats).

Also, not all of those Republicans are voting for the Trumpistas Party.

Edited by Js1
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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Gallup voter enthusiasm measure: "not great news for the Democrats"

% of party "certain to vote"
Democrats 63%
Republicans 65%
 

Dems were plus 8 a month ago.  

63% for D would be about 25% more Dems going to vote than in 2016.

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted

The GOP has been screaming that the gas tax repeal proposition on the ballot in CA was going to save them in a few districts and/or make them competitive in some unexpected ones.

The gas tax repeal proposition is losing by 12 points statewide, including 15 points in OC/San Diego, where most of the endangered Republicans are (Walters, Rohrabacher, Hunter, open-39th, open-49th).

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High Plains Drifter

High Plains Drifter 10970

Posted
Posted
On 9/21/2018 at 4:55 PM, Gil Bang said:

 

Susan Gaertner, Jim Knoblach's attorney, said while her client denied the allegations, he "does not want to drag his family through six weeks of hell."

Gaertner suggested Laura Knoblach disagrees with her father's political beliefs and her actions are politically motivated.

 

Holy Hell.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

Aren't there way more Ds and lean Ds than on the R side, meaning that an even percentage turnout would equate to many more D votes? 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

About even, but most people lie and self identify as independent, so partisan enthusiasm percentages are largely irrelevant.

I think things like the voter registration surge in Texas are better indicators of what is about to happen because granny who loves Fox and Friends was already registered.  New registrations will primarily be young people, minorities, and new residents.  All those groups lean heavily towards the Dems.

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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted

24 races by Inside Elections just moved towards the Democrats.  8 tilt R to toss-up. 9 toss-up to tilt D.

Tilt R > Tossup:

  • CA-10 (Denham)
  • CA-25 (Knight)
  • CA-45 (Walters)
  • KS-02 (Open)
  • ME-02 (Poliquin)
  • MI-08 (Bishop)
  • PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
  • VA-07 (Brat)

Tossup > Tilt D

  • CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
  • CO-06 (Coffman)
  • IL-06 (Roskam)
  • KS-03 (Yoder)
  • MN-02 (Lewis)
  • MN-03 (Paulsen)
  • NJ-03 (MacArthur)
  • NY-19 (Faso)
  • NY-22 (Tenney)

Tilt D > Lean D

  • CA-49 (Open)
  • IA-01 (Blum)
  • PA-07 (Open)

Lean R > Tilt R

  • NC-02 (Holding)
  • NC-13 (Budd)
  • VA-02 (Taylor)

Likely R > Lean R

  • PA-10 (Perry)
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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

24 races by Inside Elections just moved towards the Democrats.  8 tilt R to toss-up. 9 toss-up to tilt D.

Tilt R > Tossup:

  • CA-10 (Denham)
  • CA-25 (Knight)
  • CA-45 (Walters)
  • KS-02 (Open)
  • ME-02 (Poliquin)
  • MI-08 (Bishop)
  • PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
  • VA-07 (Brat)

Tossup > Tilt D

  • CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
  • CO-06 (Coffman)
  • IL-06 (Roskam)
  • KS-03 (Yoder)
  • MN-02 (Lewis)
  • MN-03 (Paulsen)
  • NJ-03 (MacArthur)
  • NY-19 (Faso)
  • NY-22 (Tenney)

Tilt D > Lean D

  • CA-49 (Open)
  • IA-01 (Blum)
  • PA-07 (Open)

Lean R > Tilt R

  • NC-02 (Holding)
  • NC-13 (Budd)
  • VA-02 (Taylor)

Likely R > Lean R

  • PA-10 (Perry)

That site predicts pretty modest pickup for the Ds, all things consider.  Just a tiny majority.

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gmr548

gmr548 16490

Posted
Posted
24 races by Inside Elections just moved towards the Democrats.  8 tilt R to toss-up. 9 toss-up to tilt D.
Tilt R > Tossup:
  • CA-10 (Denham)
  • CA-25 (Knight)
  • CA-45 (Walters)
  • KS-02 (Open)
  • ME-02 (Poliquin)
  • MI-08 (Bishop)
  • PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
  • VA-07 (Brat)
Tossup > Tilt D
  • CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
  • CO-06 (Coffman)
  • IL-06 (Roskam)
  • KS-03 (Yoder)
  • MN-02 (Lewis)
  • MN-03 (Paulsen)
  • NJ-03 (MacArthur)
  • NY-19 (Faso)
  • NY-22 (Tenney)
Tilt D > Lean D
  • CA-49 (Open)
  • IA-01 (Blum)
  • PA-07 (Open)
Lean R > Tilt R
  • NC-02 (Holding)
  • NC-13 (Budd)
  • VA-02 (Taylor)
Likely R > Lean R
  • PA-10 (Perry)
Fake news red wave

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted

FL Chamber of Commerce has Nelson up 2 and Gillium up 4.

FL COC has endorsed the Republicans.  Definitely movement towards Nelson while Gillium is still holding all of his post-primary leads.  FLGOV is basically lean D.  FLSEN is tilt D.

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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted

Its actually Gillium up 6, which is +2 since the last one.

Nelson is up 5 from the last one that had Scott +3.  Scott has always been so fucking unpopular and loathed and squeaked by in Republican wave years (10, 14) that he is finally getting his due.  Millions dropped all summer, stuck at around 45% of the vote, and Nelson is overtaking him in the home stretch.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19330

Posted
Posted

Not only did Scott never implement any of the water quality legislation that passed overwhelmingly in Fla. He actually gutted Fla’s version of the EPA. The massive algie blooms on both coasts south of Lake O have made him hugely unpopular in S Fla. He got booed off the stage at his own event in Naples a couple weeks ago, then had another event that had so many protestors outside, he couldn’t get into the building and left. 

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Mack Tripper

Mack Tripper 696

Posted
Posted
Not only did Scott never implement any of the water quality legislation that passed overwhelmingly in Fla. He actually gutted Fla’s version of the EPA. The massive algie blooms on both coasts south of Lake O have made him hugely unpopular in S Fla. He got booed off the stage at his own event in Naples a couple weeks ago, then had another event that had so many protestors outside, he couldn’t get into the building and left. 

This is definitely one of Scott’s biggest liabilities. It’s not just water quality. Phosphate mining is out of control there and people are pissed.
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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25896

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Mack is looking old. Not sure why he gets in bed with the worst the GOP has to offer though. He is the type of guy that should be trying to steer the GOP into a better direction. 

I don't care if he's a GOP supporter. He's a great guy for what he did during the hurricane.  If I lived out there, I'd buy shit from him.

 

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