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2018 - Elections and Trends

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29220

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I'm not so sure.  Menendez is pretty reviled with the criminal trial.  In the dem primary, his opponent who didn't even really campaign and had close to zero name recognition got over 40% of the vote in what was clearly a protest vote against Menendez.  At best, the democratic base in NJ is apathetic about voting for him.  He may get pulled across the finish line because of people reviled by Trump and what the GOP Senate is doing now, and also by some competitive house raises for which there's enthusiasm.  But I think it will be close. 

I really can't believe (who the hell am I kidding? Yes I can) they couldn't find anyone to run a legit primary campaign against him.

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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I'm not so sure.  Menendez is pretty reviled with the criminal trial.  In the dem primary, his opponent who didn't even really campaign and had close to zero name recognition got over 40% of the vote in what was clearly a protest vote against Menendez.  At best, the democratic base in NJ is apathetic about voting for him.  He may get pulled across the finish line because of people reviled by Trump and what the GOP Senate is doing now, and also by some competitive house raises for which there's enthusiasm.  But I think it will be close. 

I don’t think he’ll win by 15. Maybe 6-7 which sucks in NJ but a win is a win. He should have stepped down so the D gov elected last year could replace him 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25896

Posted
Posted

CA 39 back to toss-up per 538. There was a mini sexual harassment scandal involving the D candidate that has fizzled, and it turns out the accuser is now saying it never happened.

This is the district where the Dem is the millionaire lottery winner, Gil Cisneros, running against an Asian woman in a heavily Asian district

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Are you counting Beto?  I would think not.....

 

There are a couple of ways for the Democrats to get to 51 without Beto, but it either requires the coin to come up heads 3 times out of 5, or the Kavanaugh fiasco to overwhelm Republicans at all levels. 

 

IMHO North Dakota is the linchpin to control, not Texas. The last time anyone not named Fox News did polling up there was June. I don't know if anyone has a clue what this race looks like now.  

 

The fact that we're even discussing Democrat control of the Senate in 2019 with this awful of a map was crazy talk not that long ago.

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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

There are a couple of ways for the Democrats to get to 51 without Beto, but it either requires the coin to come up heads 3 times out of 5, or the Kavanaugh fiasco to overwhelm Republicans at all levels. 

 

IMHO North Dakota is the linchpin to control, not Texas. The last time anyone not named Fox News did polling up there was June. I don't know if anyone has a clue what this race looks like now.  

 

The fact that we're even discussing Democrat control of the Senate in 2019 with this awful of a map was crazy talk not that long ago.

There was a poll last month with Cramer +10 but questionable pollster and it was pre-Kavanaugh and the dumb things he said about rape. 

Also Heidi was down 10 to Berg 6 years ago. Berg didn’t win 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Florida looks a lot like Texas (America). Completeyred other than a few blue dots. But it’s 50/50 on the total votes.

Once the voting restoration act passes that will make Florida lean about 3% democratic is my guess.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15475

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There was a poll last month with Cramer +10 but questionable pollster and it was pre-Kavanaugh and the dumb things he said about rape. 

Also Heidi was down 10 to Berg 6 years ago. Berg didn’t win 

The thing about Heidi is that she knows every last motherfucker in North Dakota.  That incumbency advantage up there is a real thing.

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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

A month to go and I honestly can't stand to watch the news anymore during my morning workout. There's a commercial break every 4-5 minutes it seems and you are forced to see at least 2 out of the same rotation of 5 or 6 Cruz/Beto and Fletcher/Culberson ads. EVERY SINGLE TIME.

Dude, same.

Regular TV and Hulu are a fucking beating of the same Cruz/Beto and Fletcher/Culberson ads.  And for some reason, on Hulu, I keep getting JB Pritzker ads.  For Illinois.
 

I'm fucking tired of watching Mattress Mack and fatass Culberson walk around Gallery Furniture.

Edited by Js1
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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

The thing about Heidi is that she knows every last motherfucker in North Dakota.  That incumbency advantage up there is a real thing.

There was a poll by a reputable ND pollster who did some basic polling that has Heidi +18 in Fargo, West Fargo and Grand Forks (the more liberal parts of the ND).  She won them by 14 in her last race.

The East Cities part of ND is about 30% of the vote and she's +18 in voting and +27 in favorability (Cramer is -8)

The rural eastern part of the state is about 19% of the vote statewide and even in the rural part, she's +19 in favorability and +22 in job approval. Cramer is -4 in favorability.

Basically, he said this and he nailed her win in 2012:

Quote

Crosstabs is where the story is; you can’t be up 18pts in East Cities, yet be down 10pts statewide. Especially since I know where rural east and parts of Bismarck stand.

 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5271

Posted
Posted

A decent chunk of the "generic tightening" trend is attributable to Qpac result going from an outlier +14 (LOL) to +7 in the span of two weeks. Their demographic sample went from D+9 to D+3 between those 2 polls. So, about what you'd expect if you went from D-heavy sample to a D-lite sample.

Conclusion: They were never really up 14 and haven't actually lost 50% in 2 weeks. Additionally, GOP generic ballot has been pretty tightly anchored to Trump approval ratings, which have recovered from slightly below 40% 2 weeks ago to about 42% today (which, coincidentally is right where he was at about 5-6 weeks ago when the generic similarly tightened.)

Unless Trump sees a massive popularity spike in next few weeks that pushes him to levels not seen since his inauguration, I think the mid 40's is about the ceiling for endangered GOP house members. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13408

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

A decent chunk of the "generic tightening" trend is attributable to Qpac result going from an outlier +14 (LOL) to +7 in the span of two weeks. Their demographic sample went from D+9 to D+3 between those 2 polls. So, about what you'd expect if you went from D-heavy sample to a D-lite sample.

Conclusion: They were never really up 14 and haven't actually lost 50% in 2 weeks. Additionally, GOP generic ballot has been pretty tightly anchored to Trump approval ratings, which have recovered from slightly below 40% 2 weeks ago to about 42% today (which, coincidentally is right where he was at about 5-6 weeks ago when the generic similarly tightened.)

Unless Trump sees a massive popularity spike in next few weeks that pushes him to levels not seen since his inauguration, I think the mid 40's is about the ceiling for endangered GOP house members. 

Confirming Kavanaugh should improve Trump's numbers.  It will obviously make some angry but it's doubtful those angry people were previously approving of Trump.   Outside of this I don't see how Trump could improve outside of a war and from all accounts Trump knows that he should avoid a war if he want to be re-elected.

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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Semi-interesting factoid: On this very day in 2010, the generic had dropped all the way to GOP +3.5, down from an earlier high of +7.8 on 9/14.

10 days later, it jumped to +8.2 and sat above 9 heading into election day. Final result was GOP +6.8 with a whopping 63 seat gain.

It’s called NOISE. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89404

Posted
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Posted

So is this kind of a big thing in Florida.

http://myfwc.com/news/news-releases/2018/october/01/mediastatement/

Quote

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) has detected low to medium concentrations of naturally-occurring red tide in water samples taken Sunday, Sept. 30, off the coast of Palm Beach County.   

Red tide on both coasts seems like kind of a big thing, but it is rare.  But I hear tell one of those fellers running for some office may have shirked his duty a little bit.

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gmr548

gmr548 16490

Posted
Posted
So is this kind of a big thing in Florida.

http://myfwc.com/news/news-releases/2018/october/01/mediastatement/

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) has detected low to medium concentrations of naturally-occurring red tide in water samples taken Sunday, Sept. 30, off the coast of Palm Beach County.   

Red tide on both coasts seems like kind of a big thing, but it is rare.  But I hear tell one of those fellers running for some office may have shirked his duty a little bit.

 

 

Red tide? Obvious sign of a red wave IMO.

 

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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retread

retread 2951

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, horncyclist said:
1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:
Anybody know how this works? It was at 10 respondents last night out of thousands called. It’s sitting at 8 right now but there are more dots than that on the map below. 

It seems to be buggy. Click on another race and then click back.

That seems to help when I click on the links at the top of the page. Click N.C. and then back to TX.

image.png

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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted (edited)

My new favorite (and obviously aimed at the mental midgets with Texas HS diplomas that are akin to being the smartest kid with Downs syndrome) ads are the ones that are like:

Lizzie Fletcher

HIGHER TAXES

Big government

Nancy Pelosi

HIGHER TAXES

 

Because that ad presupposes that the Democrats take the House and the Senate and then Trump just magically decides to sign whatever crosses his desk?  Also: "This is Lizzie Fletcher. This is Lizzie's boss Nancy Pelosi."  I didn't realize Nancy Pelosi was the managing partners at AZA.

Edited by Js1
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