2018 - Elections and Trends

[Js1 85095]

I was always told, since I was deputized at 19 years old and registering people to vote outside the PCL, it has to be a wet-ink signature.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I was always told, since I was deputized at 19 years old and registering people to vote outside the PCL, it has to be a wet-ink signature.

I'm sure that is the case for best practices.  But you don't draw the line on best practices.  You draw the line on the law, which is the judiciary's decision, not the executive's.

[Js1 85095]

Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I'm sure that is the case for best practices.  But you don't draw the line on best practices.  You draw the line on the law, which is the judiciary's decision, not the executive's.

Hi, this is Texas.  Whatever disenfranchises people by being the dumbest option is going to the best practice.

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/04/house-democrats-1-million-869472

 

60 democrat house candidates raised over $1 million during the 3rd quarter.

by comparison, in 2016 during the 3rd quarter only 21 house candidates from both parties raised over $1 million. 

The repubs are delusional if they think they can keep the house. The democrats have VERY high energy. I think this cake is already baked.

 

we got our asses kicked in 2010 and 2014 because of low enthusiasm and no money. Both of those problems have been rectified in a big way. As long as we get the house, we can stop trumps shitty agenda and yes the vast majority of Americans think his agenda is terrible. Trump has no creative ideas or innovative thoughts, he just wants to undue what Obama did. 

[Brisketexan 104553]

21 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Don't be fooled by this nonsense.  A person has expressed an intention to register to vote by making a physical act to put a signature on a piece of paper.  This is exactly what suppression is:  the codification of inanities to justify denial of your attempt to vote.  There are a 1000 other scenarios where an electronic sig is valid, so there is no reason to treat this different in the abstract sense, and I'm not even sure the election code requires actual ink on paper.  (can't tell if this is the right provision:  https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/petitions.shtml -- just says it has to be in signer's handwriting)

 

Interesting.  The election code says "The signature is the only information that is required to appear on the petition in the signer's own handwriting."  But, that provision was passed and effective, at latest, in 2005.

The Uniform Electronic Transactions Act, passed in 2009 (so, the later-enacted and effective statute) says "(d) If a law requires a signature, an electronic signature satisfies the law."

That later enactment effectively amends ALL laws that require a signature.  BUT....there's this:

Quote

Sec. 322.017. ACCEPTANCE AND DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRONIC RECORDS BY GOVERNMENTAL AGENCIES. (a) Except as otherwise provided by Section 322.012(f), each state agency shall determine whether, and the extent to which, the agency will send and accept electronic records and electronic signatures to and from other persons and otherwise create, generate, communicate, store, process, use, and rely upon electronic records and electronic signatures.

(b) To the extent that a state agency uses electronic records and electronic signatures under Subsection (a), the Department of Information Resources and Texas State Library and Archives Commission, pursuant to their rulemaking authority under other law and giving due consideration to security, may specify:

(1) the manner and format in which the electronic records must be created, generated, sent, communicated, received, and stored and the systems established for those purposes;

(2) if electronic records must be signed by electronic means, the type of electronic signature required, the manner and format in which the electronic signature must be affixed to the electronic record, and the identity of, or criteria that must be met by, any third party used by a person filing a document to facilitate the process;

(3) control processes and procedures as appropriate to ensure adequate preservation, disposition, integrity, security, confidentiality, and auditability of electronic records; and

(4) any other required attributes for electronic records which are specified for corresponding nonelectronic records or reasonably necessary under the circumstances.

(c) Except as otherwise provided in Section 322.012(f), this chapter does not require a governmental agency of this state to use or permit the use of electronic records or electronic signatures.

So, in reading further, it seems to boil down not to the statute, but to the administrative rules of each specific agency.  And, if the SOS has declined to accept electronic signatures and/or specifically requires handwritten signatures, then the handwritten signature requirement would still be enforceable.

 

Bottom line is, if there's an impediment to a person registering to vote and/or voting that this State can get away with, rest assured -- it WILL be implemented.

[HenryJames 65886]

 

[EMAWesome 101]

9 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yeah.  I don’t think many voters would shift from democrat to republican voting because of kavanaugh but it might encourage some republicans to vote.  But I don’t think it’s becaue they really care about kavanaugh, it’s more that the democrats are getting one over the republicans with a sexual assault investigation.

Democrats, maybe not  but Independents who were previously leaning Democrat are another topic.

[Celery Man 20882]

Has this been posted?

 

[David Dennison 18647]

2 hours ago, EMAWesome said:

Democrats, maybe not  but Independents who were previously leaning Democrat are another topic.

They still hate Trump and that's what November is about. It's a referendum on the president.

[Laga4 1270]

9 hours ago, shnsajax said:

 

Apparently the Trump Admin is concerned about China interference against him in red states.

 

I guess the really smart man ( I know he is smart because he told us he was )  thinks the trade war is going to make them stop. 

[Ghost of LL 15475]

On 10/4/2018 at 8:47 AM, Bateshorn said:

For all the "GOP IS BACK, CUZ KAV!!!!" hot takes banging around (and there are clearly being taken seriously inside the GOP, because Fox has suddenly decided to go all Kav, all the time), the Access Hollywood tape dropped on Oct. 7, and less than a week later, it looked like Trump was going to possibly lose by double digits.  The memory half life on these things is very, very short. 

Really the question is what happens on the confirmation vote and how it plays going forward. IF Kav fails and this drags out for 3 more weeks through a Barrett or Hardiman nomination, then I could see this being a Nov. issue.  If Kav is confirmed early next week, I just don't see this bump in enthusiasm (assuming it's an actual bump and not just a fortuitous bunching of polls)  lasting for another month.

Interesting.  Are you saying "Consolidate our gains!" is somehow a less effective battle cry than "REVENGE!"?

[Js1 85095]

Holy carp

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Holy carp

 

That’s awesome. Hopefully she can get out the vote and win. If she doesn’t, it might drive up turn out in a house race or two. 

[Brisketexan 104553]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

That’s awesome. Hopefully she can get out the vote and win. If she doesn’t, it might drive up turn out in a house race or two. 

Hell yeah it is.  My wife's old classmate and friend.  She's good people.

So, she'll probably lose, no matter what.  The votes will be rigged.  The polling places in certain neighborhoods will experience inexplicable power failures, system failures, etc.  We're playing a game that no longer has any rules.  If she wins, it will be because something went wrong with the efforts to fuck with the vote and the voters.

Yeah, I have no faith in the system, particularly when a party that is utterly opposed to "one man, one vote" is in power all over the country.  Democracy had its chance.  I don't think it's going to get another one.

[Js1 85095]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Hell yeah it is.  My wife's old classmate and friend.  She's good people.

So, she'll probably lose, no matter what.  The votes will be rigged.  The polling places in certain neighborhoods will experience inexplicable power failures, system failures, etc.  We're playing a game that no longer has any rules.  If she wins, it will be because something went wrong with the efforts to fuck with the vote and the voters.

Yeah, I have no faith in the system, particularly when a party that is utterly opposed to "one man, one vote" is in power all over the country.  Democracy had its chance.  I don't think it's going to get another one.

The man who oversees elections in GA is her opponent.  Same with Kansas.  Both Republicans.

[Chad Fuck 17552]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Hell yeah it is.  My wife's old classmate and friend.  She's good people.

So, she'll probably lose, no matter what.  The votes will be rigged.  The polling places in certain neighborhoods will experience inexplicable power failures, system failures, etc.  We're playing a game that no longer has any rules.  If she wins, it will be because something went wrong with the efforts to fuck with the vote and the voters.

Yeah, I have no faith in the system, particularly when a party that is utterly opposed to "one man, one vote" is in power all over the country.  Democracy had its chance.  I don't think it's going to get another one.

Maybe Europe will save us.  They owe us a couple.

[Brisketexan 104553]

Just now, Js1 said:

The man who oversees elections in GA is her opponent.  Same with Kansas.  Both Republicans.

I know.  Thus, my comments.

[Brisketexan 104553]

Just now, Chad Fuck said:

Maybe Europe will save us.  They owe us a couple.

I wouldn't count on them.  They're working on hitting "control-alt-delete" on the only order that has kept them out of massive warfare in their entire history.  My bet is that there will be a significant ground war in Europe in less than 15 years, probably less than 10.  Over something inconceivably stupid, but motivated by naked and stupid nationalism.

I'll probably be on whatever side Germany ends up on.

But I doubt that my country will.

[Voldemort86 2259]

I wish the democrats could get something this year. It has pretty much sucked since 2012.

id be ecstatic if they could just take the house. The senate is probably not going to happen. Need to win some governor races so that we could undue some shity gerrymanders in certain states. We should be sick of losing right?!?!

[Chad Fuck 17552]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

I wouldn't count on them.  They're working on hitting "control-alt-delete" on the only order that has kept them out of massive warfare in their entire history.  My bet is that there will be a significant ground war in Europe in less than 15 years, probably less than 10.  Over something inconceivably stupid, but motivated by naked and stupid nationalism.

I'll probably be on whatever side Germany ends up on.

But I doubt that my country will.

Yeah, I know.  Same forces at work here are at work there

Busy, busy deconstructing the peace we've had for decades.

[lemonlime 5503]

I hope there's bourbon on brisket's ledge.  

[Js1 85095]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

I wish the democrats could get something this year. It has pretty much sucked since 2012.

id be ecstatic if they could just take the house. The senate is probably not going to happen. Need to win some governor races so that we could undue some shity gerrymanders in certain states. We should be sick of losing right?!?!

House - 25-40 seat pickup

Governorship - 10-12 seat pickup

Senate - just hold the fucking line, pick up 2 seats out West and only drop 1 of your own (ND) and maybe you get a surprise (TN)

[Voldemort86 2259]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

House - 25-40 seat pickup

Governorship - 10-12 seat pickup

Senate - just hold the fucking line, pick up 2 seats out West and only drop 1 of your own (ND) and maybe you get a surprise (TN)

Is that a prediction or just what you want to see happen?

[Js1 85095]

5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Is that a prediction or just what you want to see happen?

That's my prediction.  25-40 seat pickup in the House based on the CW; 10-12 in governorships (NM, NV, IL, MI, WI, FL, ME, IA for sure with OH, KS, OK, GA as potential pickups), all red-state Ds win + Sinema and Rosen (I'm more bullish on Heidi than the conventional wisdom and somehow I think female Ted Cruz wins in Tennessee, yuck)

Edited October 5, 2018 by Js1

[David Dennison 18647]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

That's my prediction.  25-40 seat pickup in the House based on the CW; 10-12 in governorships (NM, NV, IL, MI, WI, FL, ME, IA for sure with OH, KS, OK, GA as potential pickups), all red-state Ds win + Sinema and Rosen (I'm more bullish on Heidi than the conventional wisdom and somehow I think female Ted Cruz wins in Tennessee, yuck)

Just get the House back. Don't fucking blow that.

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

The man who oversees elections in GA is her opponent.  Same with Kansas.  Both Republicans.

She can appeal to the US Supreme Court for lack of due process.

Oh, wait.  Never mind.....

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Jesus Christ Texas

Edited October 6, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Gil Bang 25896]

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Rep. Jim Renacci, the Republican Senate candidate, on Friday defended flying in a strip-club owner's private plane to a meeting earlier this week with faith leaders in Scioto County.

While deflecting questions about flying with Don Ksiezyk on Ksziezyk's plane to the Tuesday event in Portsmouth, Renacci seemed to acknowledge doing so. 

"I'm going with a volunteer, and no one's concerned about traveling with him or anything," Renacci said. "Again, it's so sad that we're worried about my travel, which is legal, but you won't report on Sherrod Brown's multiple abuses over the years."

Renacci was referencing his recent campaign strategy -- which has been reported on by cleveland.com -- of repeatedly calling attention to details from Brown's 1986 divorce, in which his then-wife accused him of frightening her and being rough with her. She's since become a vocal campaign supporter of Brown's, saying her heated divorce "led only to angry words," and has denounced Renacci's efforts to highlight the issue. Brown has denied being violent with his ex-wife, as he has when the issue has been raised in previous elections.

Flight records show a plane registered to an address shared with the Peek-a-Boo Club in Cleveland, which is owned by Ksiezyk, flew from the Wooster area to Portsmouth around 3 p.m. on Tuesday. Later that evening, Renacci tweeted about meeting with the "faith leaders"before he attended a Scioto County Republican Party event. 

Renacci took the flight the week after the Columbus Dispatch first reported Ksiezyk had flown Renacci to events across the state throughout his campaign in the single-engine, fixed-wing plane. Renacci has reported the free travel as an in-kind contribution worth about $2,500.

"He's a volunteer who... I met during the campaign. He asked to volunteer for me," Renacci said. "I'm not going to vet volunteers, and I'm not going to vet the press's looking at volunteers."

Renacci was in Cleveland on Friday for an endorsement interview with the editorial board of cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer. Afterward, he was also asked about growing concerns among Ohio Republicansabout his campaign's lack of advertising since the May primary. Between reservations and actual spending, Brown is set to spend about $12.5 million on advertising, while Renacci has spent just $481,000. 

Some Ohio Republicans have questioned whether Renacci's lack of advertising reflects his unwillingness to spend his own money on his race. Renacci has loaned his campaign $4 million of his own money, which represents the majority of his campaign fundraising.

Asked about those concerns, Renacci refused to say if he planned to spend the $4 million before Election Day.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Bad news for Dems.

Prediction markets look like SHIT right now. 

Democrats were at 68% chance to take the house at the start of the week. Right now it’s at 63%.

republicans chances to keep the senate were 66.2%. Right now it’s at  77.3%.

I’m guessing a lot of it is just noise from the Kavanaugh nonsense and will come back up a bit when we get some more polls this week, but it’s definitely not a good sign.

I don’t think we’ve ever seen a massive shift in politics about a month before the election where it totally changes the trajectory on everything. I still would guess the Dems are in good shape in the house and Governor races. I’d really like to see Trump have some accountability or a “check” on him and I can’t fathom why most Americans wouldn’t be thinking the same thing. 

This could be a blip, but it might not be. Polling this week will be a huge indicator. Cross your fingers.

 

Edited October 6, 2018 by Voldemort86

[David Dennison 18647]

20 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Bad news for Dems.

Prediction markets look like SHIT right now. 

Democrats were at 68% chance to take the house at the start of the week. Right now it’s at 63%.

republicans chances to keep the senate were 66.2%. Right now it’s at  77.3%.

I’m guessing a lot of it is just noise from the Kavanaugh nonsense and will come back up a bit when we get some more polls this week, but it’s definitely not a good sign.

I don’t think we’ve ever seen a massive shift in politics about a month before the election where it totally changes the trajectory on everything. I still would guess the Dems are in good shape in the house and Governor races. I’d really like to see Trump have some accountability or a “check” on him and I can’t fathom why most Americans wouldn’t be thinking the same thing. 

This could be a blip, but it might not be. Polling this week will be a huge indicator. Cross your fingers.

 

So, basically no change.

[berlinerbaer 670]

The polls lag behind reality by a week or so, so we won't know what effect the confirmation has had until early-middle of next week. That also means that, closing in on election day, things won't be as bad as the polls would suggest, assuming some sort of reversion to the mean.

We'll see Trump's approval "peak" at around 43%, which seems to be his ceiling post-inauguration.

[atomheartbevo 89405]

This is a man who has seen some shitty polls. 

 

[horncyclist 1384]

This is a man who has seen some shitty polls. 
 

Eh, just more scare tactics.

[tantric superman 4667]

Texas House District 114 - write-up on my sad blog about a debate the candidates had.

http://whiterockjournal.com/john-turner-the-better-choice-for-texas-house-district-114/

Writing is hard.  Really hard.

For any of you in the district (Carollton - Lake Highlands DFW, John Turner v. Lisa Luby Ryan), I link to a video of the debate at the end of the write-up.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

12 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Texas House District 114 - write-up on my sad blog about a debate the candidates had.

http://whiterockjournal.com/john-turner-the-better-choice-for-texas-house-district-114/

Writing is hard.  Really hard.

For any of you in the district (Carollton - Lake Highlands DFW, John Turner v. Lisa Luby Ryan), I link to a video of the debate at the end of the write-up.

Thank you for taking the time to write that and get involved with state level politics. I work in public ed and have great fears about this next session without Joe Straus there to keep the rabid conservatives in check. National politics are important and exciting but individuals that aren’t mega donors can make a big difference on the local level. Many people move to the burbs for the good public schools then vote for republicans that are anti public education. Most politicians wont come out and say it but get them behind closed doors and the truth comes out. 

If you live in western round rock, far north Austin, cedar park or Leander, and care about education, please consider supporting Bucy. His wife is a teacher and his platform on education is great. Here is a link to a map of his district. I think he has a real shot, especially with the popularity of Beto in the area.

https://www.bucyfortexas.com/map

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Taylor Swift comes out as a Democrat and encouraging her fans to vote and endorsing Bresden the day after the US leg of her tour ends.

The Trump Swifties are being mad online right now.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Good for her!

Cant wait for Trump to Twitter blast her. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Because of course this happens in 2018

 

[Js1 85095]

She’s notoriously apolitical. Get off the sidelines and take a stand. 

[Celery Man 20882]

#iwouldliketostandwithtaytay

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

10 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Thank you for taking the time to write that and get involved with state level politics. I work in public ed and have great fears about this next session without Joe Straus there to keep the rabid conservatives in check. National politics are important and exciting but individuals that aren’t mega donors can make a big difference on the local level. Many people move to the burbs for the good public schools then vote for republicans that are anti public education. Most politicians wont come out and say it but get them behind closed doors and the truth comes out. 

If you live in western round rock, far north Austin, cedar park or Leander, and care about education, please consider supporting Bucy. His wife is a teacher and his platform on education is great. Here is a link to a map of his district. I think he has a real shot, especially with the popularity of Beto in the area.

https://www.bucyfortexas.com/map

 

Damn, his district ends where my neighborhood starts. I’m probably going to be stuck with pervy Schwertner again 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13409]

There will be the next inevitable backlash against Taylor swift by some that say they don’t want to hear the opinions of Hollywood elites.  However those same critics wouldn’t speak up against an entertainer backing a republican. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

lol Trumpkins on Reddit are burning Taylor merch.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

18 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

There will be the next inevitable backlash against Taylor swift by some that say they don’t want to hear the opinions of Hollywood elites.  However those same critics wouldn’t speak up against an entertainer backing a republican. 

Never mind that the President is a media personality.

That whole keep your political opinions to yourself in the entertainment industry can fuck right off 

[Gil Bang 25896]

Today The Fresno Bee takes a step it has not made since before 2002: It is recommending a candidate for the 22nd congressional district who is not Devin Nunes.

Instead, The Bee recommends Andrew Janz, the Democrat who offers the best chance to both lead the district by attending to its issues and then by striving for bipartisanship in Washington, D.C., which is the only answer to the poison of gridlock politics that is stifling debate and action at nearly all levels.

Throughout the fall campaign, the Republican Nunes has focused his ire at The Bee, slamming this newspaper for allegedly supporting Janz and having a supposed “leftist, liberal, socialist” agenda.  The truth is The Bee’s Editorial Board had not arrived at a recommendation pending interviews with the candidates to size them up. The Bee sent two invitations to Nunes to attend such a meeting; not once did he reply. Janz, by contrast, made time to sit down and discuss the issues. For that reason — and more — he has earned the recommendation.

Janz, 34, is a moderate Democrat who is campaigning without party support in his first election. The Democratic national committee has not seen his candidacy as a winner, given the 9-percentage-point advantage Nunes has in voter registration over Janz.

While that may seem a negative, it actually is a positive. Janz can act with a degree of independence from party politics and do what he thinks is best for the 22nd District.

Case in point: immigration. Janz veers from party orthodoxy by backing an earned right to citizenship, not amnesty. He wants to work out the details for a work visa program as well, which would supply badly needed labor to agriculture and other industries. When it comes to a wall, he says such a structure “is a giant waste of money” because it would not deter undocumented people from finding other ways to get into California. As he notes, drug and human trafficking already occur through the border’s regular checkpoints. Rather, he supports employing technology to beef up border security — drones, satellite surveillance, infrared imaging.

When it comes to gun control, Janz understands what it is to be a gun owner, as he is one. Janz is also a deputy district attorney who knows residents, especially those living in the farm and ranch country of the 22nd District, need to have a weapon for protection from wild animals, burglars and worse. Janz believes that people who have no convictions for violent crime should be able to arm themselves.

Janz also wants to change his party’s leadership in the House, meaning he does not back Nancy Pelosi, the San Franciscan who is the minority leader and is anathema to many in the Valley. Rather, he is looking for someone who can be less polarizing and more solution oriented.

As a prosecutor, Janz knows firsthand the impacts of crime on victims. That is also why he has a willingness to help the little guy. For example, Janz wants every American to have access to quality health care. How to make that happen? Janz is open to all ideas, especially town-hall meetings in the district to hear what his constituents think. One thing he says is non-negotiable: Pre-existing conditions must be covered.

Nunes, by contrast, voted along party lines in approving the House version of the American Health Care Act of 2017. It would have shrunk Medicaid by 15 million enrollees nationwide by 2026. Medicaid is the government program that covers low-income children, adults, seniors and people with disabilities, aiding one in five Americans. In Nunes’ district, 313,000 people were enrolled in Medi-Cal as of January. Of those, 74,000 would have immediately lost coverage, and all would have had their coverage impacted through loss of benefits or access to doctors. (Medi-Cal is California’s version of Medicaid).

Nunes did this despite the fact that his district has more people relying on government-paid medical assistance than almost anywhere else in the nation.

Many in law enforcement are registered Republicans, and yet Janz is a Democrat. Why? He says the party under FDR ended the Depression and won World War II. It is a party of big ideas, like Social Security and civil rights. That is what attracted him and motivates him today.

There is also a simple idea that Janz has hitched much of his appeal to: Being accessible and accountable. Nunes has completely avoided town-hall meetings in Visalia, Clovis or Fresno so voters could hear him and ask questions. Janz promises to hold at least four town hall meetings a year and have mobile office hours.

The willingness to listen extends to Republicans who would be his colleagues. Janz wants to work across the aisle to accomplish things like developing a new source of water for Valley farms. Nunes has done much to elevate the water discussion during his tenure, but he has also alienated Democratic representatives with his never-ending name-calling of environmentalists as leftists, socialists, even Communists. With no ground left for compromise, little has been accomplished. Janz will have a better chance of dealing with Democrat peers from elsewhere in the state on the water issue. Nothing will happen without compromise.

Voters in the 22nd District have a chance to become a model for the nation. They can elect a representative who will both help them with their needs, listen to their concerns and invite them into the process, and chart a bipartisan course that the nation must find if it is to meet the challenges of the future. That leader is Andrew Janz.

Voters can also choose Nunes and remain stuck with the damaging partisanship he practices, the party-above-country mode that motivates him to protect President Trump from the investigation into Russian meddling more than meet his constitutional obligations as an independent arm of government. Then there is his lack of regard for the needs of his part of California.

Voters of the 22nd, it is no stretch to say the eyes of the nation are watching to see how this race turns out. For the good of your district, and America at large, choose wisely.

How The Bee came to this recommendation

The Bee’s Editorial Board consists of Publisher Ken Riddick, Editor Joe Kieta, Editorial Page Editor Tad Weber, Vida en el Valle Editor Juan Esparza Loera, and Vida Staff Writer Maria Ortiz-Briones. They conducted an in-depth, in-person interview with Andrew Janz. Devin Nunes turned down repeated invitations. Additional research about the candidates was also done using publicly accessible online sources and The Bee’s archives.

The recommendation is just that: a helpful opinion meant to guide readers as they reach their own decision on which candidate to choose. This recommendation is the consensus opinion the Editorial Board; the news staff does not play any role in its creation.

[Bateshorn 9898]

Roughly Wednesday/Thursday this week we should start seeing a Kavanaugh effect if one exists.  I’d think a 1-3 point move in the generic House diff and Donnelly/Tester/Nelson/McCaskill suddenly collapsing. 

[CooterBrown 17904]

[/url]

 

 

 

My wife who has never voted or paid 1 second of attention to politics registered to vote. Kavanaugh turned it for her. I was shocked when she brought him up last week. To be honest, she pays so little attention to politics I would bet against her being able to name the VP but she’s decided now is the time.

[horncyclist 1384]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-of-battleground-house-districts-shows-democrats-with-narrow-edge/2018/10/07/f45e13f2-c812-11e8-b1ed-1d2d65b86d0c_story.html

New Washing Post poll of Battleground districts. Shows Dem with a narrow edge in the ones won by Trump, solid on those won by Clinton.

"The survey of 2,672 likely voters by The Post and the Schar School at George Mason University shows that likely voters in these districts favor Democrats by a slight margin: 50 percent prefer the Democratic nominee and 46 percent prefer the Republican. By way of comparison, in 2016 these same districts favored Republican candidates over Democratic ones by 15 percentage points, 56 percent to 41 percent."

That's a 19 pt swing to Democrats. Women driving a lot of it. About half of this was taken after the Ford/Kavanaugh testimony. Make of it what you will.

[Js1 85095]

They are pissed and the condescending victory lap by the white men in the GOP isn’t going to help 

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Roughly Wednesday/Thursday this week we should start seeing a Kavanaugh effect if one exists.  I’d think a 1-3 point move in the generic House diff and Donnelly/Tester/Nelson/McCaskill suddenly collapsing. 

I was surprised that they came out so early as "no's."  That made me think they had no political downside to opposing him.  What are your thoughts?