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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13740

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I understand that the gop needs to say that kavanaugh energized their base and will stop the blue wave.  They need to say that. They need to find anything to latch onto.   I agree that it did energize some on the right.   However they won with kavanaugh.  That energy won’t last in a large way because of the win.  

Can they point to large or many donations by individuals to gop candidates?  Susan Collins had $3.5m donated AGAINST her to a politician to be named later.  

At the end of the day, I think we will see what we all expected:  senate stays red and the house goes blue.   And I predict that in individual races, most will be as expected with a few surprises,  I know I’m going out on a limb with those predictions.

 

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9991

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I was surprised that they came out so early as "no's."  That made me think they had no political downside to opposing him.  What are your thoughts?

I honestly think it varies by member. 

Tester had the easiest choice:  McConnell, for all his brilliance, didn't have Kavanuagh meet with Tester.  That gives Tester an easy out:  He has only the hearings to go off of, and can claim judicial temperment and vote no and explain it easily.  Also, the mountain west is more interested in land and wildlife issues and tend to get less caught up in the choice/voting rights stuff that drives traditional party dynamics.  Also, I think he feels pretty good in his race, given his opponent is a carpetbagger with a baltimore accent.

McCaskill?  Who knows, but she's an election witch, I never doubt her thoughts.

Donnelly, I think he was honestly moved by Ford's testimony and voted no.

Heitkamp:  She's never led in that race.  I think she went with no to maintain party loyalty.

Nelson is riding Gillum's coat tales, so progressive is smart.

Manchin was always going to wait till the last moment and hope the GOP moderates gave him cover.

 

Hence my thoughts on what the polling shows:  If suddenly all of them start to slide in the polls, then there's a big burst of GOP enthusiasm.  If they all stay in the MOE range they've been in, then I think the Kav or Die dynamics may be overblown.

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Js1

Js1 87214

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Heitkamp was on 60 Minutes last night and explained her vote.  She is well aware the political expedient choice was to vote yes but she knew this was about more than politics.  Remember, she voted yes on Gorsuch, so she isn't some reliable party loyalist.  She's also on the trail now talking about her mom being going through sexual assault and how she's worked with DV victims as NDAG.  This was personal to her. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106952

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Just catching up on this thread. Were there people who thought that people like Taylor Swift and Iggy Izeala and Justin Beiber AREN'T democrats? People supporting these musical acts and then freaking out when finding out that they are liberal is weird.

I can truly and honestly tell you that 1) before your post, I never GAF about the political inclinations of those three named people, and 2) neither did I AFTER your post.

If I ever make a life decision based on Justin Beiber's opinion, you have my permission -- correction, my DEMAND -- to euthanize me immediately.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Just catching up on this thread. Were there people who thought that people like Taylor Swift and Iggy Izeala and Justin Beiber AREN'T democrats? People supporting these musical acts and then freaking out when finding out that they are liberal is weird.

Haven’t you heard?  Conservatives are boycotting things like Nike, Keurig, ESPN, the NFL, Nestle, Starbucks, Target for having the balls to make a stand against lord and savior president Trump. Adding a few musicians to the long list won’t hurt.

 

they truly are a bitter, nasty, and angry bunch.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I can truly and honestly tell you that 1) before your post, I never GAF about the political inclinations of those three named people, and 2) neither did I AFTER your post.

If I ever make a life decision based on Justin Beiber's opinion, you have my permission -- correction, my DEMAND -- to euthanize me immediately.

So your going to Beiber's shows no matter what his political  beliefs. You are such a Belieber. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106952

Posted
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1 minute ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

lol I hear you. I've always heard that Hollywood/Music bends extremely left and it makes sense, lots of gender bending and minorities and historically marginalized people who carved out an empire entertaining the masses.

I kinda expect anyone who's an "artist" to be on the left end of the spectrum.  Kinda like I expect most Wall Street types to be on the right end of the spectrum.  Being shocked and appalled by either truth is a waste of everyone's time.

I generally don't want my fund manager to be a dope-smoking hippie....but I love my country music legend being one (God Bless Willie Nelson).  And I want a country that has both fund managers AND Willie Nelson in it. We all should.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21099

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I'd like to object to Taylor Swift being lumped into the same category as Iggy Azalea and Justin Beiber.  I'm sure there will be some lols and she's a pop star/etc, but she's a million times more "serious" than either of them, or even someone like Katy Perry.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21099

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1 minute ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

To be fair, however, I don't think many people would have assumed Kanye wasn't a left-leaning type of guy, so there are surprises I guess. Are liberals burning his cds and stuff?

black people twitter full of people trying to come to grips with Kanye being MAGA and Taylor Swift being woke

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106952

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2 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

To be fair, however, I don't think many people would have assumed Kanye wasn't a left-leaning type of guy, so there are surprises I guess. Are liberals burning his cds and stuff?

I don't think Kanye knows what he is.  And, again, the amount of time I've spent being concerned about it remains pegged at 0.0 seconds.

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 18158

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I don't think Kanye knows what he is.  And, again, the amount of time I've spent being concerned about it remains pegged at 0.0 seconds.

I think Kanye is a savvy media manipulator just like Trump and it's a case of game recognizing game.

Also, the guy has had a screw loose since his mom passed.  It is known.

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Js1

Js1 87214

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Just catching up on this thread. Were there people who thought that people like Taylor Swift and Iggy Izeala and Justin Beiber AREN'T democrats? People supporting these musical acts and then freaking out when finding out that they are liberal is weird.

Taylor Swift was notoriously known for being apolitical.  Seriously - she didn't bother before yesterday of wading into politics at all, except I think a few things about gun control.  But she didn't talk about 2016 because she said she didn't want to alienate fans and cause tension.  She endorsed nobody.  Which is why 4chan felt like she was some secret conservative Trumpkin who was too scared of left-leaning Hollywood/pop culture to talk about politics.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21099

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4 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I don't know much of any of the above, I just lumped her in with them because Eminem did in a song where he was making fun of a popstar as being on a list next to Taylor Swift and Iggy, but maybe just because it rhymed.

just for some context/explanation - Swift is 28 years old and has been one of the biggest pop stars in the world for 12 years.  She crossed over from country to pop, she's fairly universally loved and looked up to in a way that isn't typical of pop stars, and widely respected by musicians and performers across the board.  She sets trends, she's spotless, she's a role model, and she's a songwriter as well as a singer.  If there's such a thing as "America's Sweetheart" it is her.

Not like I'm the biggest Taylor Swift fan in the universe - the closest thing to a Taylor Swift album I've ever bought was Ryan Adams' cover of 1989.  But her speaking out politically after never having done so is a much bigger story/deal than anything Justin Bieber, Ariana Grande, whoever could do.  Really Kanye is the best parallel, but it's more bizarro than opposite.

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Js1

Js1 87214

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6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think it would blow the minds of many country fans that most of the country performers support Democrats.  They're business people so they avoid the publicity but most would not contribute to Trump or other Republicans.

Remember when that bro country dude came out for gun control after Vegas? Holy shit where they PISSED.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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9 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

just for some context/explanation - Swift is 28 years old and has been one of the biggest pop stars in the world for 12 years.  She crossed over from country to pop, she's fairly universally loved and looked up to in a way that isn't typical of pop stars, and widely respected by musicians and performers across the board.  She sets trends, she's spotless, she's a role model, and she's a songwriter as well as a singer.  If there's such a thing as "America's Sweetheart" it is her.

Not like I'm the biggest Taylor Swift fan in the universe - the closest thing to a Taylor Swift album I've ever bought was Ryan Adams' cover of 1989.  But her speaking out politically after never having done so is a much bigger story/deal than anything Justin Bieber, Ariana Grande, whoever could do.  Really Kanye is the best parallel, but it's more bizarro than opposite.

Maybe she came out politically because she doesn’t need the money anymore. She’s obviously made money hand over fist. She had to have known there would be some kind of backlash and some boycotts.

on the plus side, the people showing up to her concerts now will generally be more classy and intelligent in the future. She might lose a few white trash fans tho.

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pevodog

pevodog 11

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Maybe she came out politically because she doesn’t need the money anymore. She’s obviously made money hand over fist. She had to have known there would be some kind of backlash and some boycotts.
on the plus side, the people showing up to her concerts now will generally be more classy and intelligent in the future. She might lose a few white trash fans tho.

Really, a bunch a radical feminist and their beta male followers are now considered classy?


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Js1

Js1 87214

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6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Maybe she came out politically because she doesn’t need the money anymore. She’s obviously made money hand over fist. She had to have known there would be some kind of backlash and some boycotts.

on the plus side, the people showing up to her concerts now will generally be more classy and intelligent in the future. She might lose a few white trash fans tho.

Meh I think she and many others realized sitting on the sidelines isn't worth it anymore.  The alternative to being all "non-political" and not rocking the boat is.... Trump and Kavanaugh.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, pevodog said:


Really, a bunch a radical feminist and their beta male followers are now considered classy?


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Educated people are going to vote democrat in droves this year and trump has alienated educated suburban women who used to be solidly republican.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 18158

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11 minutes ago, pevodog said:


Really, a bunch a radical feminist and their beta male followers are now considered classy?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

giphy.gif

What's up with all the idiots who can't form a basic sentence coming out of the woodwork the last few days?

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Js1

Js1 87214

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57 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

 

 


I won’t be surprised to see 40 year old moon shinning men burning their XXL Swift T-shirt’s on Twitter later today.

 

Don't forget them tweeting "0/10, would not bang this dumb skinny libtard bitch" as if they had a chance.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13740

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16 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Ain't gonna happen next month.

But if you break that down by the number of people in each age range and whether they identify as republican or democrat, democrats get more votes (48M to 46M).  But as always almost as many people identify as Independent as they do Republican or Democrat.   Who does the Independent vote for?  That's the big question.   51M unaccounted for. 

If the independent voter is pushed to name a party, then Democrats receive 71M votes vs 63M for Republicans.  Some (7-8%) still refuse to name a party so the numbers don't equal.

Democrats get more votes nationally but state populations and drawn district maps giving them a lower proportion of representation in DC.    Republicans have been smarter over the last few decades.

 

 

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Tuco

Tuco 5094

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I was surprised that they came out so early as "no's."  That made me think they had no political downside to opposing him.  What are your thoughts?

I see it as a wedge issue. Either way, they were going to get damaged by their vote. I think in a tight race, with so much passion behind opposing Kav, it is more damaging to vote yes on Kav. I think the progressives in WV and TN are going to have a bigger problem voting for the Dems there, than the moderates in MO will have voting for McCaskill. Particularly since the yes votes won any way.
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G650

G650 14447

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4 hours ago, shnsajax said:

 


I won’t be surprised to see 40 year old moon shinning men burning their XXL Swift T-shirt’s on Twitter later today.

This whole reaction by a bunch of incels to Taylor Swift being a democrat is one of the funniest/saddest things I've ever witnessed.

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3607

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This whole reaction by a bunch of incels to Taylor Swift being a democrat is one of the funniest/saddest things I've ever witnessed.


Thankfully I haven’t seen it, or know where to look. Looking forward to the Fox News backlash tonight though.
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G650

G650 14447

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Posted
Just now, shnsajax said:

 


Thankfully I haven’t seen it, or know where to look. Looking forward to the Fox News backlash tonight though.

I just saw it on the Post's webpage.

I couldn't name a Taylor Swift song if I tried. I think the most I know about her is that Kanye West jumped in front of her at some sort of awards show or something like that.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21099

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39 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I went to youtube and tried to recognize/listen to one thinking I've heard many of her songs just didn't know it (you know how that is sometimes), but I actually hadn't ever heard any of her songs though I was recommended to listen to Adele and Katy Perry, both of which I've heard. She's too hip for me and I'm married anyways.

probably won't like it because = beta cuck alt country shit (really not trying to just follow you around today) but for general dad rock, Ryan Adams full album cover of 1989 is great

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13740

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4 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Put some money on Claire McCaskill to not get re-elected on PredictIt. 

How much?  I see several are mentioning placing bets and their odds but I never see any amounts listed.    In 2016 I bet $500 that Hillary wouldn’t get 50% of the popular vote.  Seemed like an easy win and I was right.   I didn’t think it was possible that anyone would get 50% and Hillary offered the best odds the day before the election.

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

How much?  I see several are mentioning placing bets and their odds but I never see any amounts listed.    In 2016 I bet $500 that Hillary wouldn’t get 50% of the popular vote.  Seemed like an easy win and I was right.   I didn’t think it was possible that anyone would get 50% and Hillary offered the best odds the day before the election.

I put $100 down at $0.61 per share. So basically bet $100 to win $63. 

Also put down. $150 on Cruz at $0.77 per share. $150 to win $44. Not a great payout, but free money. 

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