2018 - Elections and Trends

[bernorange 8,348]

Nm

Edited October 9, 2018 by bernorange

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,411]

I imagine Scott is going be all over this hurricane in Florida.  He may be driving rescue trucks or repelling out of helicopters.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I imagine Scott is going be all over this hurricane in Florida.  He may be driving rescue trucks or repelling out of helicopters.

If nobody dies and the recovery goes well, Gillum would benefit too because of the storms path.

[Js1 85,102]

 

[horncyclist 1,386]

 

Oops.

[Chrispy 132]

18 hours ago, Celery Man said:

probably won't like it because = beta cuck alt country shit (really not trying to just follow you around today) but for general dad rock, Ryan Adams full album cover of 1989 is great

 

Phew, I’m not the only one.

[Aqua Buddha 14,504]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

[Aqua Buddha 14,504]

Hate to be morbid but roughly 2.6M people die every year in the US.  Assuming that Trump's and the GOP's voters trend older, that would easily be 3M fewer Republican voters than there were 2 years ago.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Hate to be morbid but roughly 2.6M people die every year in the US.  Assuming that Trump's and the GOP's voters trend older, that would easily be 3M fewer Republican voters than there were 2 years ago.

Repubs are so lucky millenials don’t vote or they’d struggle to win in a lot more places. 

[David Dennison 18,655]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Repubs are so lucky millenials don’t vote or they’d struggle to win in a lot more places. 

Luck runs out.

[Aqua Buddha 14,504]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

Repubs are so lucky millenials don’t vote or they’d struggle to win in a lot more places. 

Millennials aren't kids anymore.  They're into their late 30's in some cases.  They're going to start voting more and more and meanwhile, the core of the GOP will be literally dying off by the millions every year.  Ten years from now the GOP as we know it will cease to exist and they know that.  That's why they're frantically trying to vote stuff in.  They know there's a time clock.

[David Dennison 18,655]

Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

Millennials aren't kids anymore.  They're into their late 30's in some cases.  They're going to start voting more and more and meanwhile, the core of the GOP will be literally dying off by the millions every year.  Ten years from now the GOP as we know it will cease to exist and they know that.  That's why they're frantically trying to vote stuff in.  They know there's a time clock.

This. They know they've already lost the culture war bigly. They are on the precipice of becoming irrelevant to an entire generation of voters. They can only slow things down. They cannot stop progress. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Meanwhile...........

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/entertainment/taylor-swift-voter-registration/index.html

 

taylor swift doing work. Voter registrations have spiked since she came out as a democrat against Donald trump and his hate filled agenda.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Voldemort86

[Js1 85,102]

 

[Message Board User 12,389]

I can’t wait til all this shit is over and done with in 4 weeks.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

6 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I can’t wait til all this shit is over and done with in 4 weeks.

I just want trump to know how Obama felt after the 2010 election. He ridiculed obama repeatedly for not being able to get anything through congress with Republican majorities in both chambers and said he could do a much better job at it. Let’s see the “art of the deal” in action.

id like to see him get the opportunity to prove it.

[Chuckie Finster 22,598]

3 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

But when millennials do start voting, they might be influenced and decide to vote for their financial/selfish interests and not vote for progressives anymore. This is the old argument of "if you are republican and young you have no heart, if you are democrat and old you have no money".

The opposite argument seems to be what people are banking on, that the root of the millennial political and values identity will be firm and solid and they will vote on philosophy (one formed when they were young), not pragmatics.

The key issue is that Republican financial interests DO NOT benefit the majority of millennials.  An entire generation (stereotypically) who does not own property while paying off tens of thousands of dollars in student debt will offer a rude awakening to the people who just assume everyone turns conservative as they get older because of finances.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Chuckie Finster

[Aqua Buddha 14,504]

4 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

But when millennials do start voting, they might be influenced and decide to vote for their financial/selfish interests and not vote for progressives anymore. This is the old argument of "if you are republican and young you have no heart, if you are democrat and old you have no money".

The opposite argument seems to be what people are banking on, that the root of the millennial political and values identity will be firm and solid and they will vote on philosophy (one formed when they were young), not pragmatics.

They also have kids and won't vote for the party actively working to gut public education.

[GRHorn 105]

22 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Millennials aren't kids anymore.  They're into their late 30's in some cases.  They're going to start voting more and more and meanwhile, the core of the GOP will be literally dying off by the millions every year.  Ten years from now the GOP as we know it will cease to exist and they know that.  That's why they're frantically trying to vote stuff in.  They know there's a time clock.

What about people becoming more conservative as they age?  Feels like you’re discounting that. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 minute ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

But when millennials do start voting, they might be influenced and decide to vote for their financial/selfish interests and not vote for progressives anymore. This is the old argument of "if you are republican and young you have no heart, if you are democrat and old you have no money".

The opposite argument seems to be what people are banking on, that the root of the millennial political and values identity will be firm and solid and they will vote on philosophy (one formed when they were young), not pragmatics.

It’s a very small sample size, but I’m 31 ( a millennial) who never misses a chance to vote. Most of the people in my circle of friends hate republicans. I can’t believe republicans get away with so much shit. I’d never support those crooked assholes. They think gerrymandering and 85 year old billionaires spending obscene amounts of money to get them re-elected is ok (the democrats as a whole are always outspent in every election), but they complain about the media having a perceived “liberal bias” and they get mad at social media companies for “shadow banning” conservatives. You can’t complain about the last 2 if you don’t complain about the first 2. Hypocritical asshats.

[Aqua Buddha 14,504]

1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

What about people becoming more conservative as they age?  Feels like you’re discounting that. 

What issues are millennials going to become more conservative about?

[Chuckie Finster 22,598]

Just now, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

True. My premise was baked with the assumption that when millennials do start to turn out and vote, they will be indistinguishable from other generations in that they will be well into a career, own homes, have families, etc.

That assumption could be completely and unabashedly wrong for all I know and you could be spot on. I'm no Nate Silver, my dude.

Nobody knows how millennials will mature.  There's absolutely a chance you are correct, but millennials are going to be a really interesting study.  The debt and lack of home ownership are widely covered topics, but there are countless other topics that are pretty unprecedented.  Most millennials will eventually get on top of that loan and get around to buying that house, but what happens when their upward mobility is limited due to older generations staying in the workforce because of poor retirement planning?  I'm in my 30s and I'm already seeing the trickle down effect of old farts refusing to leave.  

Even if you discount the social views and tolerance of millennials (which is not something that should be easily discounted), there are going to be a ton of unprecedented developments that hit the millennials straight-on as time passes.  Assuming that this generation will behave similarly to previous ones is a belief based in hope, not facts.

[Message Board User 12,389]

I’ve been hearing about the impending demise of the Republican Party for about 30 years now.  And how Texas is right on the cusp of turning blue.

I guess this time it’s different.

[Celery Man 20,883]

People become more conservative as they age, but y’all are fighting a culture war not a conservatism war.

[Dahobbs 17,444]

People becoming more conservative with age is not about their values changing. It is about the fact that society already moved whatever direction they wanted and them being content with those changes, but not others.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,411]

35 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I can’t wait til all this shit is over and done with in 4 weeks.

dude.  the 2020 election will start for real in 4 weeks and 1 day.   This is only the warm up act.

[GRHorn 105]

12 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

What issues are millennials going to become more conservative about?

It’s hard to be specific about individual issues. The natural tendency is for humans to become more risk averse as we get older, financial and otherwise. There’s another word for that. 

How that will be manifest by millennials will be fascinating given their somewhat mixed bag of values (see drugs, gay marriage vs gun laws, abortion) and their financial circumstances (debt laden). 

Long story short I guess I can’t give you an answer but I doubt one single generation’s ability to buck how we are all hard wired. 

[Celery Man 20,883]

People becoming more conservative with age is not about their values changing. It is about the fact that society already moved whatever direction they wanted and them being content with those changes, but not others.  

Except for the fucking boomers.

[Pancho 44,466]

26 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

What about people becoming more conservative as they age?  Feels like you’re discounting that. 

Is there evidence of this or just an assumption?

 

[Dahobbs 17,444]

6 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Except for the fucking boomers.

I don't think the boomers changed. I think the majority of the generation is where it has always been. 

Edited October 9, 2018 by Dahobbs

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

42 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

What about people becoming more conservative as they age?  Feels like you’re discounting that. 

Do they get more conservative?  The vast majority of the users of socialized medicine, socialized income, and socialized housing are old people.  Perhaps you just mean they become more racist and sexist?

In reality, they just get more scared because their death is imminent and the world is going to keep on going without them.

Also, the idea of becoming more conservative as people age begins and ends with Boomers.  It wasn't evident in prior generations and it need not be evident in future generations.  I'd also imagine the demographic issue that Boomers face is that the "liberal" wing of the generation were disproportionately more likely to abuse drugs and have unsafe sex, while the "conservative" wing was more likely to settle down early, eat moderately, and have safe sex.  The "liberals" were far more likely to die off.  I think that difference was erased with Gen X and Millennials as the health (yoga, gym, organic, etc) boom was disproportionately picked up by "liberals."  Meanwhile, "conservatives" of these generations get married early, but mostly eat garbage and don't get their fatasses off the couch.

Edited October 9, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[Bateshorn 9,898]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think the boomers changed. I think the majority of the generation is where it has always been. 

There's a persistent myth that the boomers were liberal and became conservative, and it's not really true.  The Boomers, as a whole, have been significantly more conservative than either the Greatest Generation or the Silents, as well as Gen X and the Millenials to date.  It's why we are where we are in domestic politics:

[Brisketexan 104,585]

8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

There's a persistent myth that the boomers were liberal and became conservative, and it's not really true.  The Boomers, as a whole, have been significantly more conservative than either the Greatest Generation or the Silents, as well as Gen X and the Millenials to date.  It's why we are where we are in domestic politics:

I think we tend to mistake "loudness" for "total number."  That is, the Boomer represented the starkest dichotomy of any generation in memory: you had buzz-cut traditionalists (often on the wrong side of race and civil rights issues) versus free-love dope-smoking hippies.   So, on both ends, you had greater extremes.  And we really noticed the newer phenomenon: the dope-smoking hippies.

I know anecdotes are not statistics, but I'd say it's interesting watching my parents and my wife and me.  I grew up in a GOP household, as did my wife.  She was always more left than her parents, but still was pretty middle-of-the-road, voted for folks in both parties.  My mother -- who was always very anti-racism and feminist, has completely broken with the "conservative" movement.  My old man hasn't completely broken with it, but he's really uncomfortable.  They are both young Silent gen age.  And as for me, y'all know my journey.

I think it's interesting that neither my parents nor me became "more conservative" as we aged.  I don't know how much to extrapolate from that, but there you are.

[Hank Kingsley 20,680]

In my life experience as a 42 year old, practically every single friend has become more LIBERAL as they have gotten older.  Racial/gender/sexual orientation/class injustice is at the forefront of everyone's mind. These are all upper/upper middle class people born and raised in Houston with great jobs and plenty of income.  The majority of their Baby Boomer parents are still conservative, but others are willing to have a dialogue and weakening their conservative stance.

 

 

[seven 1,366]

As an old man millenial (36) I can tell you that in general the homophobia, transphobia, and (more recently emphasized) racism from the gop is completely off-putting to people in this generation. The gop will drop that eventually, but it will be interesting to see if it's too late. 

 

Even the "conservative" millenials I know are turned off completely by the toxic social platform of Republicans.

[Chrispy 132]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

In my life experience as a 42 year old, practically every single friend has become more LIBERAL as they have gotten older.  Racial/gender/sexual orientation/class injustice is at the forefront of everyone's mind. These are all upper/upper middle class people born and raised in Houston with great jobs and plenty of income.  The majority of their Baby Boomer parents are still conservative, but others are willing to have a dialogue and weakening their conservative stance.

 

 

Weird, I’m 32 and my friends are becoming more conservative. 

[David Dennison 18,655]

1 minute ago, Chrispy said:

Weird, I’m 32 and my friends are becoming more conservative. 

They were already conservative.

[Chrispy 132]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

They were already conservative.

Some of them. 

[lemonlime 5,503]

I don't buy the argument that the boomers, who voted for (1) Reagan twice, (2) Bush 42, and (3) Bush 42 plus Perot are now  becoming more conservative as they become seniors.

[hayden_horn 11,360]

20 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

In my life experience as a 42 year old, practically every single friend has become more LIBERAL as they have gotten older.  Racial/gender/sexual orientation/class injustice is at the forefront of everyone's mind. These are all upper/upper middle class people born and raised in Houston with great jobs and plenty of income.  The majority of their Baby Boomer parents are still conservative, but others are willing to have a dialogue and weakening their conservative stance.

 

 

i'm 40. i'm a man, and i've found myself and my peer group not being MORE democrat, but more ANTI-republican. 

[seven 1,366]

1 minute ago, hayden_horn said:

i'm 40. i'm a man, and i've found myself and my peer group not being MORE democrat, but more ANTI-republican. 

Yes, this is kind of where I was trying to go. No one "likes" the democrats, but Republicans are absolutely rejected

[DigglerontheHoof 21,059]

16 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i'm 40. i'm a man, and i've found myself and my peer group not being MORE democrat, but more ANTI-republican. 

Same and it was very evident at a big dinner we traditionally have on Friday of TX/OU.

Not one positive thing said about Trump and his minions.  Lots of support for Beto, as well..

I’d be willing to bet everyone of them voted for Reagan twice.

[The Royal We 3,065]

My circle of friends tends to follow this same trend as well with one caveat - I grew up in a very small town and my high school buddies who never left town are all hard core Trumpkins.  The ones who never left and the majority of my Aggie friends are the only people in my greater circle of friends who have remained conservative or become more conservative.

My baby boomer parents are Fox News viewers and have remained very conservative through my entire life.  Truth be told they are probably baffled at what my political views have become.

[Chuckie Finster 22,598]

8 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I think geography might play a role in all these anecdotes.

My anecdote is that in real life (at the mercy to my physical location obviously), all my friends are getting more conservative, but my online friends (you guys) are more liberal over time.

I think the phrasing of "more conservative" is a bit of a misnomer.  With the way the party has shifted over time, if you haven't become "more conservative" over time, then you've become a dirty Democrat.  I think it's mostly people who used to identify as Republican and still want to identify as Republican, so as a result they appear to have become "more conservative" when in reality they are just rooting for the same team.  I know a number of people like this.  I don't know a single person who used to be liberal and is now conservative.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Chuckie Finster

[Chad Fuck 17,562]

6 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

My circle of friends tends to follow this same trend as well with one caveat - I grew up in a very small town and my high school buddies who never left town are all hard core Trumpkins.  The ones who never left and the majority of my Aggie friends are the only people in my greater circle of friends who have remained conservative or become more conservative.

My baby boomer parents are Fox News viewers and have remained very conservative through my entire life.  Truth be told they are probably baffled at what my political views have become.

This is me.  My small town friends are mostly conservatives.  Big surprise, I moved to the big city and most of my friends are liberal.  Somewheres v. Anywheres.

 

[Gil Bang 25,897]

 

[Gil Bang 25,897]

34 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

They have Heller up 46-44

[Js1 85,102]

7 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

They have Heller up 46-44

Still stuck in the mid-40s as an incumbent is such an awful place to be.

Also NV polls always underestimate the Democrats, because of Vegas.  Republicans always seem to lead in the polls. I mean, just ask Senator Angle, Senator Heck and Trump, who totally won NV, right?

Edited October 9, 2018 by Js1

[Dahobbs 17,444]

15 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I think the phrasing of "more conservative" is a bit of a misnomer.  With the way the party has shifted over time, if you haven't become "more conservative" over time, then you've become a dirty Democrat.  I think it's mostly people who used to identify as Republican and still want to identify as Republican, so as a result they appear to have become "more conservative" when in reality they are just rooting for the same team.  I know a number of people like this.  I don't know a single person who used to be liberal and is now conservative.

Correct. Conservative, ultimately just means you want to keep things relatively static (or return to like they use to be). Liberal, means you want things to change in some way from how they have traditionally been. Again, the journey to conservativism is relative, not absolute. I don't think people's absolute position changes all that much. I think their position relative to society as a whole changes a whole lot. That shouldn't be too surprising because you would expect each generation's beliefs to become more incorporated into society as the generation ages. What was liberal is now conservative. 

[Gil Bang 25,897]