2018 - Elections and Trends

[Voldemort86 2259]

Stock markets are plummeting today.

 

makes me think it’s because of trumps tariffs or they’re afraid the Dems are going to take the house?

[G650 14100]

Interest rates.

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-don-apos-t-barrels-170300047.html

oil prices could soar over $100 a barrel because trump nixed the Iran deal. 

Make note of the date....... buyers must cut oil imports from Iran by NOVEMBER 4th. I wonder what’s on November 6th?  Oh yea an election.

sometimes I think I’m the only one who sees through the republicans bullshit.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

2.1 million buy from America First Action

[Longhorn_Fan68 33840]

1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

2.1 million buy from America First Action

if that wasn't made for free then they definitely should ask for their money back.

[Js1 85104]

Bernie

TAXES

PELOSI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Things are not looking great for Gina Ortiz Jones.

TX-23: The National Journal reports that the NRCC has canceled all their TV reservations here from Oct. 16 to Election Day, and unlike in AZ-02, it's because they feel good about this race. A September Siena poll gave GOP Rep. Will Hurd a 51-43 lead over Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, while the NRCC's allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund recently released their own poll giving Hurd a huge 55-30 lead. Democratic groups haven't released better numbers, and ominously, the DCCC and House Majority PAC have barely spent anything here. (EMILY's List has spent $550,000 for Ortiz Jones, though.)

[cactusflinthead 27594]

What do you do when things look shitty?

Sue your old employer and the paper of course. 

PA-07: You're a Republican who's down in the polls, trails in fundraising, and is trying to hold an open seat that favored Hillary Clinton in what has turned out to be a very difficult year for your party, so what do you do? Obviously, you file a lawsuit four weeks before Election Day reminding everyone that you were placed on leave by your former employer earlier this year over allegations you committed sexual misconduct.

So yeah, that's what Marty Nothstein did on Wednesday, suing both the Valley Preferred Cycling Center, where he'd been executive director, as well as the Morning Call, the newspaper that originally reported the story, for conspiring to defame him as "part of a political smear campaign designed to influence the election." The president of the velodrome, as the cycling center is commonly known, strongly denied Nothstein's charges, as did the Morning Call, which said it "stands by its reporting."

Defamation cases like this rarely succeed, especially when brought by public figures, who face a high burden of proof. And Nothstein certainly is one: In addition to running for Congress, he's an Olympic gold medalist and chair of the Lehigh County Board of Commissioners. If there's a motive here beyond pure pique, it's hard to see what it might be, unless Nothstein thinks he can gin up the Trumpist base by painting himself as a victim of the media.

It also might be pure desperation. Recently, the NRCC said it had reserved $1.5 million in TV time to help Nothstein but wouldn’t say when it would start advertising. Now Bloomberg reports that the committee was supposed to go up on Oct. 2, but more than a week later, nothing has aired. Meanwhile, the DCCC is running ads on behalf of Democrat Susan Wild, who had the airwaves to herself in September. With so little time left, it's beginning to smell like the GOP is preparing to triage this race.

[Chad Fuck 17563]

2.1 million buy from America First Action

Saw that on Fox this morning as it was playing at the local diner. Immediately followed by a pro commercial.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

11 hours ago, Message Board User said:

It’s almost as if this whole Kavanaugh bump for the GOP was a complete fabrication.

Or it hits Nate Silver's reticence to predict 2018 due to conventional wisdom being by and large written by men.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

10 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

All I know is my wife said a canvas for a local dem race in maryland was packed last weekend.  They had to do 2 instruction sections for new door knockers.  All women livid about Kavanaugh, most door knocking for the first time. This is Maryland, mind you, not some swing-y VA congressional race.

My wife volunteered us to drive people to the polls. She's never been politically active before this year.

Edited October 10, 2018 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

3 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Stock markets are plummeting today.

 

makes me think it’s because of trumps tariffs or they’re afraid the Dems are going to take the house?

Remember when I said that the tax cuts, in addition to increasing the deficit, would also force the Fed to accelerate rate increases and valuations would take the hit? This is what I was talking about. 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Bozo_Casanova

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

^^^

I ended up out of town for the fundraiser she hosted due to a family illness.

[Buzzrock 14870]

Remind me who is calling for books like Harry Potter to be banned.
That bothers me more than calling out someone for dropping n-bombs.
The only time someone gives a shit about PC language is when have put a big target on themselves when they said something that was fine for their grandfather but gets them a visit with HR or worse.
Been saying that how we respond to the party in power when we turn 18 is what guides us the rest of our lives. 
Was summarily dismissed. 

The Harry Potter stuff was ten years ago at least, and stupid.

Not sure how the earlier examples posted in this thread are defensible. From hate speech to mansplaining to legislating pronouns, that stuff is coming from the left lately.

[Buzzrock 14870]

"So much for the Left advocating free speech!" was literally a Nazi party argument against their Communist critics during Hitler's rise to power. The Communists would try to shout down/shut down Nazi rallies and gatherings where anti-Semitism was spread.
History... it's a cycle

Democrats are communists and Republicans are Nazis. The Internet was right!

[Buzzrock 14870]

 
I don't even know what to say anymore. 
 
 
 

The Georgia governor race is going to be a tight one. The current ads are “He pointed a gun at a teenager in one of his ads” and “She wants to enable pedophiles”. Warren is coming to town soon to stump for Abrams, so that should make things interesting. Both sides will probably use the footage in their next round of ads.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

10 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

The Harry Potter stuff was ten years ago at least, and stupid.

Not sure how the earlier examples posted in this thread are defensible. From hate speech to mansplaining to legislating pronouns, that stuff is coming from the left lately.

 

Nobody is legislating anything. People are calling you an asshole because you're an asshole. You're free to call a male to female transgender "he."  She is free to tell you to fuck off. The problem you currently have is that the whole store will tell you to fuck off too. The gov't isn't forcing you to use desired terms. The people are speaking back to you. Both of you are free to speak. 

"Mansplain" all you want and you'll get shouted back at by free speaking women.

Thats how free speech works. You can be an outright Nazi and say Nazi shit and people can speak right back at you. Sorry if you were accustomed to people remaining silent while you spoke insults. They never had to. Now they don't.

[Buzzrock 14870]

Nobody is legislating anything. People are calling you an asshole because you're an asshole. You're free to call a male to female transgender "he."  She is free to tell you to fuck off. The problem you currently have is that the whole store will tell you to fuck off too. The gov't isn't forcing you to use desired terms. The people are speaking back to you. Both of you are free to speak. 
"Mansplain" all you want and you'll get shouted back at by free speaking women.
Thats how free speech works. You can be an outright Nazi and say Nazi shit and people can speak right back at you. Sorry if you were accustomed to people remaining silent while you spoke insults. They never had to. Now they don't.

You seem very defensive. I think you know what I’m talking about. See the examples given in the thread.

[Pancho 44466]

Just got polled again. 2nd time in the last few weeks. Didn’t know they were using cell phones for polling.

 

gave an extra emphasis on “DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE” when asked about trump.

 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

6 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

You seem very defensive. I think you know what I’m talking about. See the examples given in the thread.

 

I do know what you are talking about. You want to be able to say what you want without response. You can't. 

None of this is being forced upon you by gov't.  You know this. You are allowed to run around in a black neighborhood and use the n word too. Speech isnt forbidden unless you are yelling fire in a theater.  Fucking Nazi rallies still happen here. They just can't keep opposition quiet. Perhaps you desire gov't to quell the free speech of Nazi opponents?  Or to force private employers to keep Nazis employed?

JFC. Youre complaining about the mansplain term. Like you, feminists can say what they want. 

Edited October 11, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[Dropout 355]

5 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Doesn't matter if they don't vote.    I have a friend who is 34 and couldn't tell you the name of anyone in government besides dotus and her only concern right now is what bands to see at ACL this weekend.

Some will vote. For the first time ever. Maybe enough. Whether that’s enough is tbd. I’ll name you a bunch of dumbasses in government and the ones I hope to take their place. I don’t give a fuck about ACL.

[Dropout 355]

10 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

You seem very defensive. I think you know what I’m talking about. See the examples given in the thread.

 

I think the point of his post is people are defending themselves now. In other words defensive. That hasn’t necessarily happened before. Thanks Trump.

[Buzzrock 14870]

I do know what you are talking about. You want to be able to say what you want without response. You can't. 
None of this is being forced upon you by gov't.  You know this. You are allowed to run around in a black neighborhood and use the n word too. Speech isnt forbidden unless you are yelling fire in a theater.  Fucking Nazi rallies still happen here. They just can't keep opposition quiet. Perhaps you desire gov't to quell the free speech of Nazi opponents?  Or to force private employers to keep Nazis employed?
JFC. Youre complaining about the mansplain term. Like you, feminists can say what they want. 

I never said the government was restricting free speech (the legislating pronouns thing was in reference to a concept happening in Canada, but you know that). I said the left is the group more often than not these days making headlines for trying to suppress speech. Which is ironic to me.

And how do you know what I want? Another CR mind reader.

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

You seem very defensive. I think you know what I’m talking about. See the examples given in the thread.

You seem to not understand that freedom of speech is not freedom from consequences.

[bad_teammate 13132]

57 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

Democrats are communists and Republicans are Nazis. The Internet was right!

 

Communists are on the Democratic fringe and Nazis are on the Republican fringe, sure.

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Remember when I said that the tax cuts, in addition to increasing the deficit, would also force the Fed to accelerate rate increases and valuations would take the hit? This is what I was talking about. 

Did you claim this before he even took office?  Because they hike December 2016 and took off from there.  Tax cuts were signed in December 2017.  Were they frontrunning by a year?

Also you could be right over long run but since his election stocks are up ~30% and we are in the midst of a 6% decline. Hard to call that a big win. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Remember when I said that the tax cuts, in addition to increasing the deficit, would also force the Fed to accelerate rate increases and valuations would take the hit? This is what I was talking about. 

Exactly...... it was all a bunch of bullshit.

 

i think most of the middle class and downward can see through the tax cut scam. The gop sold it as a “middle class tax cut”, but most of the savings the middle class would’ve received are being wiped away because of higher interest rates, higher gas prices, and as we all know when gas prices go up, food prices going up are right around the corner. 

Thanks for the great tax cut go-pee.

[Gil Bang 25897]

 

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Things are not looking great for Gina Ortiz Jones.

TX-23: The National Journal reports that the NRCC has canceled all their TV reservations here from Oct. 16 to Election Day, and unlike in AZ-02, it's because they feel good about this race. A September Siena poll gave GOP Rep. Will Hurd a 51-43 lead over Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, while the NRCC's allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund recently released their own poll giving Hurd a huge 55-30 lead. Democratic groups haven't released better numbers, and ominously, the DCCC and House Majority PAC have barely spent anything here. (EMILY's List has spent $550,000 for Ortiz Jones, though.)

as far as I can tell from where I sit, Hurd isn't a complete dickhead, unlike most of his GOP buddies.

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

Did you claim this before he even took office?  Because they hike December 2016 and took off from there.  Tax cuts were signed in December 2017.  Were they frontrunning by a year?
Also you could be right over long run but since his election stocks are up ~30% and we are in the midst of a 6% decline. Hard to call that a big win. 

Yeah, I’ve got a pretty long, consistent, extensive record on this topic going back three boards.

They were already raising rates, but pouring gas on the fire to only accelerates that. Debt financing a tax stimulus during expansion is stupid. The impact on valuations is the least of the negative impacts of that bill.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

 

The Harry Potter stuff was ten years ago at least, and stupid.

Not sure how the earlier examples posted in this thread are defensible. From hate speech to mansplaining to legislating pronouns, that stuff is coming from the left lately.

 

Banned Books Week. I guess you haven't heard of it. Look man, you can say damn near whatever you want and nobody is going to throw you in jail. However, if you go around calling people faggots, niggers, kikes, spics or a host of other names that were just fine and dandy a while back it is probably going to cost you some money and possibly your job. If you want to do it that's fine, I am not going to stop you but I am going to avoid doing business with you and there is a strong chance you will get some repercussions from society. 

Guess you missed this down in Katy

8.  

Quote

 

8. The Hate U Give written by Angie Thomas

Despite winning multiple awards and being the most searched-for book on Goodreads during its debut year, this YA novel was challenged and banned in school libraries and curriculums because it was considered “pervasively vulgar” and because of drug use, profanity, and offensive language.

 

Big Censorship Stories of 2017

• When The Hate U Give was removed from all school libraries in the Katy Independent School District (Texas), a 15-year-old student gathered 3,700 signatures on an online petition; spoke out at a school board meeting; and started a book club about the YA novel. Author Angie Thomas called her “the real Starr Carter.” The book was returned to high school libraries and can only be checked-out with parental consent. Learn more on the Intellectual Freedom Blog.

pic is from this event

More than 150 people attended the West Chicago Public Library (Illinois) board meeting to debate the inclusion of This Day in June by Gayle Pitman in the youth collection. With support from the conservative Illinois Family Institute, a formal request for reconsideration was submitted to remove or relocate the book to the adult section so children won’t be exposed to LGBT imagery. The board voted 6-1 to retain the picture book in the youth collection. Learn more on the Intellectual Freedom Blog. 

And that's just a sample. That isn't the left wanting to ban books. It isn't the left that burns Debil Music in the parking lot. Last year buddy saw a rise in challenges to books. 

But, if you wanna go align yourself with folks that can't stand the idea of treating another human being with respect because they have a different sexual orientation than themselves, well go for it. 

[Celery Man 20883]

"there are dumbasses on the left" isn't an awesome argument right now given that Donald Trump is in the White House and the Republican party is entirely subservient to him.

[Gil Bang 25897]

Quote

Banned Books Week. I guess you haven't heard of it. Look man, you can say damn near whatever you want and nobody is going to throw you in jail. However, if you go around calling people faggots, niggers, kikes, spics or a host of other names that were just fine and dandy a while back it is probably going to cost you some money and possibly your job. If you want to do it that's fine, I am not going to stop you but I am going to avoid doing business with you and there is a strong chance you will get some repercussions from society. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

 

I never said the government was restricting free speech (the legislating pronouns thing was in reference to a concept happening in Canada, but you know that). I said the left is the group more often than not these days making headlines for trying to suppress speech. Which is ironic to me.

And how do you know what I want? Another CR mind reader.

 

And yet the left isnt supressing speech. They're speaking. Here you are talking too. Go to work or the store and speak your mind. Let your employer and the store speak theirs too. This is America.

[Buzzrock 14870]

You seem to not understand that freedom of speech is not freedom from consequences.

Of course I understand that. Are you a fan of the behavior by the left in the examples provided?

[Buzzrock 14870]

"there are dumbasses on the left" isn't an awesome argument right now given that Donald Trump is in the White House and the Republican party is entirely subservient to him.

It’s not an argument, it’s an observation. I’m not a fan of DJ Trump and Trumpsters either. But you don’t get a pass just because the other side is awful too.

[Buzzrock 14870]

And yet the left isnt supressing speech. They're speaking. Here you are talking too. Go to work or the store and speak your mind. Let your employer and the store speak theirs too. This is America.

I consider shouting down those who say things you disagree with attempting to suppress speech. Look at the examples posted earlier. I’m not talking about the 2A, that only applies to government.

If you don’t think that behavior is detestable then that leads me to believe you’re OK with it because those doing the shouting are on your team. It’s either that or you think that behavior is OK in general. I think it’s detestable.

[ERhine 1894]

Sounds like you’re the one trying to infringe on someone else’s exercise of their first amendment rights.

[Buzzrock 14870]

Sounds like you’re the one trying to infringe on someone else’s exercise of their first amendment rights.

When have I said they have no right to do it? Man you guys are touchy.

[Aqua Buddha 14504]

12 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Remember when I said that the tax cuts, in addition to increasing the deficit, would also force the Fed to accelerate rate increases and valuations would take the hit? This is what I was talking about. 

Conservatives believe that while government spending is certain to cause inflation, tax cuts have no impact whatsoever.

[Homercles 10205]

And yet the left isnt supressing speech. They're speaking. Here you are talking too. Go to work or the store and speak your mind. Let your employer and the store speak theirs too. This is America.

This is America.
Guns in my area.
I gotta strap.
I gotta carry em.

[ERhine 1894]

When have I said they have no right to do it? Man you guys are touchy.

You’re the snowflake complaining about it. I’m not the one trying to prevent the exercise of free speech under the guise of something else.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

2 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

 

I consider shouting down those who say things you disagree with attempting to suppress speech. Look at the examples posted earlier. I’m not talking about the 2A, that only applies to government.

If you don’t think that behavior is detestable then that leads me to believe you’re OK with it because those doing the shouting are on your team. It’s either that or you think that behavior is OK in general. I think it’s detestable.

 

The 1A is about the gov't also. Think of it another way where speech content isn't relevant.  You're at the movie theater watching the Avengers and you are talking incessantly. People get pissed, get the usher, and the usher asks you to leave. Perfectly within their rights, yes?

Now instead, you're on the sidewalk, you ask every single passerby their favorite color.  Some tell you theirs.  Others ignore you. Others may say something assholish to you for no reason. Still good, right?  Perhaps the assholish ones are "detestable" here.

Now on the sidewalk, you insult every single passerby by commenting on their race, language, gender, or appearance.  Some insult you back in kind. Some ignore you.  Others respond directly saying they believe your words are "wrong."  Others take a video of you insulting people and post it on twitter.  Who is "detestable?" Its you in this case.  And why do you believe that you have more right to express yourself on this public sidewalk than others who would respond to you? And if you think your speech is A-OK, you shouldn't have a problem with it going on twitter and your employer seeing it, right?  Instead you do have a problem with that, so perhaps you need to do some soulsearching and realize why your beliefs are generally detested. 

 

[EMAWesome 101]

21 hours ago, David Dennison said:

If these numbers are correct and hold up, the Republicans are going to get throttled in November.

Those numbers aren't correct but no one is going to know that until November 7.  BTW  from the latest New York Times/Siena University polls.

Cruz 52 O'Rourke 43

Tennessee Senate-Blackburn (R) 55  Bresedon (D) 40 (was basically even before Kavanaugh)

Nevada Senate-Heller (R) 47 Rosen(D) 45  (first lead for Heller the entire polling cycle Rosen had a four point lead at the end of September in the same poll)

Plus Republican donations increase 500 percent.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/boom-500-spike-in-donations-volunteers-to-gop-after-dem-mob-attacks

 

 

 

[Js1 85104]

Wow, red state Republicans are doing well against Democrats? SHOCKED. SHOCKED I SAY.

Also that is not the first Heller lead all cycle.  You're ignorant and you read the Washington Examiner, so enjoy your echo chamber news.

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Js1

[David Dennison 18655]

10 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

Those numbers aren't correct but no one is going to know that until November 7.  BTW  from the latest New York Times/Siena University polls.

Cruz 52 O'Rourke 43

Tennessee Senate-Blackburn (R) 55  Bresedon (D) 40 (was basically even before Kavanaugh)

Nevada Senate-Heller (R) 47 Rosen(D) 45  (first lead for Heller the entire polling cycle Rosen had a four point lead at the end of September in the same poll)

Plus Republican donations increase 500 percent.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/boom-500-spike-in-donations-volunteers-to-gop-after-dem-mob-attacks

The Republicans are going to lose the House.

That's getting throttled.

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Conservatives  Republicans believe that while government spending is certain to cause inflation, tax cuts have no impact whatsoever.

 

[bad_teammate 13132]

2 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

I consider shouting down those who say things you disagree with attempting to suppress speech.

I consider ducks to actually be turtles.

Quote

If you don’t think that behavior is detestable then that leads me to believe you’re OK with it because those doing the shouting are on your team. It’s either that or you think that behavior is OK in general. I think it’s detestable. 

I think your personal definitions of words ("suppress", "detestable") are incongruous with the dictionary's and you're using language hysterically.

[David Dennison 18655]

3 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

I consider shouting down those who say things you disagree with attempting to suppress speech. Look at the examples posted earlier. I’m not talking about the 2A, that only applies to government.

If you don’t think that behavior is detestable then that leads me to believe you’re OK with it because those doing the shouting are on your team. It’s either that or you think that behavior is OK in general. I think it’s detestable.

 

So about those NFL kneelers . . . 

[Brisketexan 104587]

16 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

So about those NFL kneelers . . . 

[Storm the Field 5271]

FWIW, the 25 days out projections from various polling nerds:

538: 230/205 D House (77.5% chance to take control). 52-48 GOP Senate (82% chance to retain control.)

Harry Enten (CNN, former 538): 227-208 D House. 52-48 GOP Senate.

Elliot Morris (Economist): 224-211 D House. 

All seem reasonable to me. I think D's likely pick up a good number of house seats in traditionally-D or swing areas that went Trump-y in 2016 (Upper Midwest, Northeast, VA, CA) but GOP will squeak out enough 2-3 point wins in the lean-R seats in red areas to keep it from being a total blowout. GOP probably defends most of their turf in the Senate and knocks off 1-2 red-state Dems. D's also pick up several governorships. 

Rancorous gridlock in DC until 2020. The next 2 years make the last 2 seem calm by comparison. POTUS continues to spend every day of the next 24 months as a festering national cancer. Goes into 2020 election with <=40% approval rating and still wins somehow b/c D's totally fuck up nomination.

Edited October 11, 2018 by Storm the Field