2018 - Elections and Trends

[Brisketexan 104604]

Everything above is a reasonable, and likely, take.

Sigh.

[Js1 85108]

10 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Rancorous gridlock in DC until 2020. The next 2 years make the last 2 seem calm by comparison. POTUS continues to spend every day of the next 24 months as a festering national cancer. Goes into 2020 election with <=40% approval rating and still wins somehow b/c D's totally fuck up nomination.

I'll give you everything but the last line.  In 2014-2015, it sure looked like the Republicans were going to fuck up the nomination.  They're still laughing at us.  I'll have a better feel for 2020 in about a year.

[David Dennison 18656]

Donald Trump in 2020 will be Hillary Clinton.

He's much more hated than she ever was.

He's going to lose states he won in 2016 because of it.

[Brisketexan 104604]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Donald Trump in 2020 will be Hillary Clinton.

He's much more hated than she ever was.

He's going to lose states he won in 2016 because of it.

Yet you seem to think that the party that boiled their potential nominees down to Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton can't pull a "Hold my beer and watch this 2: how to lose an election boogaloo."  They can.  They will.

Nobody is coming to save us.  We are intent on self-immolation, and every step we take just pours more gasoline onto our clothes.

[David Dennison 18656]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yet you seem to think that the party that boiled their potential nominees down to Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton can't pull a "Hold my beer and watch this 2: how to lose an election boogaloo."  They can.  They will.

Nobody is coming to save us.  We are intent on self-immolation, and every step we take just pours more gasoline onto our clothes.

I disagree. I think he's going to lose badly in 2020.

One of us will be right.

[Brisketexan 104604]

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I disagree. I think he's going to lose badly in 2020.

One of us will be right.

Hint: it's the one of us betting on utter and complete stupidity on the part of American voters and their political parties.

Shit, it's a sucker's bet.

[lemonlime 5503]

20 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I disagree. I think he's going to lose badly in 2020.

One of us will be right.

 

25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yet you seem to think that the party that boiled their potential nominees down to Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton can't pull a "Hold my beer and watch this 2: how to lose an election boogaloo."  They can.  They will.

Nobody is coming to save us.  We are intent on self-immolation, and every step we take just pours more gasoline onto our clothes.

And none of this matters because the elephant in the room isn't being addressed, which is the security of voting machines/logs and voter suppression.  It doesn't matter how good or bad the Dem nominee is or how unpopular Trump is if the Ohio or Florida Secretaries of State engage in the kind of shenanigans going on in Georgia, North Carolina, and North Dakota, right now and if the voting machines or rolls are hacked into.

[Brisketexan 104604]

Just now, lemonlime said:

 

And none of this matters because the elephant in the room isn't being addressed, which is the security of voting machines/logs and voter suppression.  It doesn't matter how good or bad the Dem nominee is or how unpopular Trump is if the Ohio or Florida Secretaries of State engage in the kind of shenanigans going on in Georgia, North Carolina, and North Dakota, right now and if the voting machines or rolls are hacked into.

Oh, that's why the shit sandwich we're all going to eat is a triple-decker club shit sandwich.

We're not a functioning Republic, especially when one political party is affirmatively devoted to the goal of INSURING that we are not.

 

[Buzzrock 14871]

You’re the snowflake complaining about it. I’m not the one trying to prevent the exercise of free speech under the guise of something else.

Not a snowflake. You’re the snowflake.

Alright enough of this topic derail. Back to the matter at hand. Brian Kemp is fuuuuucking up his run for governor in Georgia. The primaries were entertaining enough because the anointed one (Lt Gov Casey Cagle) went with a Hillary-esque “it’s his turn” approach and also got busted lying on tape about supporting issues he disagreed with if it was politically advantageous. So he lost to Brian “Shotgun Goofball” Kemp who went with the full gun-totin immigrant-hatin’ approach and it worked. In the primary at least.

The problem is now he’s up against a black female democrat who has kept her cool for the most part, and he’s massively mishandling a bunch of last minute voter registrations because, get this, for some reason we allow Secretaries of State to stay in office while they run for governor. So Abrams submits 53,000 new voter registrations which Kemp calls “sloppy paperwork” and he has frozen their processing. Now technically those people can still vote with a provisional ballot, so it’s a little disingenuous to say Kemp is stopping those people from voting. But A) they came from his opponent, B) they are 70% black, and C) there is absolutely precedent in other states for those provisional ballots to be lost in the shuffle.

What a dumbass! He had an opportunity to do the right thing here and instead played right into his opponent’s hands. Twitter and the media are screaming that Kemp is a racist who is denying tens of thousands their right to vote in a tight race.

There are two Georgias: Atlanta metro and everywhere else. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abrams win. Interestingly, Georgia’s current and previous governors were Republicans but after that you have to go back to 1872 to find another R in that seat.

[Buzzrock 14871]

The 1A is about the gov't also. Think of it another way where speech content isn't relevant.  You're at the movie theater watching the Avengers and you are talking incessantly. People get pissed, get the usher, and the usher asks you to leave. Perfectly within their rights, yes?
Now instead, you're on the sidewalk, you ask every single passerby their favorite color.  Some tell you theirs.  Others ignore you. Others may say something assholish to you for no reason. Still good, right?  Perhaps the assholish ones are "detestable" here.
Now on the sidewalk, you insult every single passerby by commenting on their race, language, gender, or appearance.  Some insult you back in kind. Some ignore you.  Others respond directly saying they believe your words are "wrong."  Others take a video of you insulting people and post it on twitter.  Who is "detestable?" Its you in this case.  And why do you believe that you have more right to express yourself on this public sidewalk than others who would respond to you? And if you think your speech is A-OK, you shouldn't have a problem with it going on twitter and your employer seeing it, right?  Instead you do have a problem with that, so perhaps you need to do some soulsearching and realize why your beliefs are generally detested. 
 

Last comment on this because it’s a threadjack: show me the insults or racial slurs in the examples listed up thread.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

9 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

Last comment on this because it’s a threadjack: show me the insults or racial slurs in the examples listed up thread.

 

Let's see.  Just off your 3 specific examples.

You intentionally calling a transgender person a pronoun they don't prefer.  Absolutely a slur to the person if you're doing it intentionally.  

Mansplaining.  You know what that actually means, right?  Its when a man speaks to a woman like a child because he thinks women are less intelligent.  Not really a slur, but condescending towards women generally.  You shouldn't be shocked that adults respond negatively when you speak to them like children.

Hate speech.  That one is pretty vague, but seems pretty straightforward, no?  The term itself is a catch-all for slurs.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[GSU&UT 1798]

@Buzzrock Brought it up in some other thread, and I know they aren't Atlanta area numbers, but you are also discounting the Black belt and the Augusta/Macon heavy black populated areas.

 

Take a look at the early voting absentee ballot turnout (which I'm sure is a lot of early machine voters last year requesting paper ballots like me).

http://www.georgiavotes.com/

 

I'm still very pessimistic and think that Kemp is going to more or less ensure his victory, but these are good early results for Abrams.

Edited October 11, 2018 by GSU&UT

[Dahobbs 17447]

28 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

@Buzzrock Brought it up in some other thread, and I know they aren't Atlanta area numbers, but you are also discounting the Black belt and the Augusta/Macon heavy black populated areas.

 

Take a look at the early voting absentee ballot turnout (which I'm sure is a lot of early machine voters last year requesting paper ballots like me).

http://www.georgiavotes.com/

 

I'm still very pessimistic and think that Kemp is going to more or less ensure his victory, but these are good early results for Abrams.

Some really interesting stuff in there:

Quote

 

Non-Voters

18,452 (45.6%) of 2018 early voters did not vote in the 2014 election

Race/Non-Voters/Vote % 

White/4,660/26.1% 

Black/9,823/57.8%

Hispanic/680/74.2%

Asian/930/78.5%

Other/2,359/68.3%

 

Age/Non-Voters/Vote %

18-29/2,120/82.0%

30-39/1,517/72.1%

40-49/1,918/63.6%

50-64/5,083/55.6%

65+/7,230/31.4%

 

Quote

 

Assuming I am reading it right, it means that 57.8% of the blacks voting early did not vote at all in 2014.  That is nearly 10,000 votes that simply didn't exist in 2014. I would assume a significant majority would go to the democrat. 

You can see the same thing for the 18-39 range. Lots of new voters, which in general I would think is good for the democrat. If a similar trend happens during regular voting . . .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Dahobbs
GAHHHH, someone fix the quote feature on this damn website.

[GSU&UT 1798]

@Dahobbs Yes there are lots of voters who did not vote at all in 2014 that are sending mail-in ballots right now and you can see the Black voters in this category make up 57.8% of the votes already cast for 2018.

[Buzzrock 14871]

I thought this was an interesting read:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/rural-georgians-want-medicaid-but-theyre-divided-on-stacey-abrams-the-candidate-who-wants-to-expand-it

One rural black female voter says “I won’t vote for her just because she’s black”, but goes on to say she’ll vote for whoever gives her healthcare. If Kemp keeps it up he’s going to give her plenty of reasons. Several thousand.

[Buzzrock 14871]

Let's see.  Just off your 3 specific examples.
You intentionally calling a transgender person a pronoun they don't prefer.  Absolutely a slur to the person if you're doing it intentionally.  
Mansplaining.  You know what that actually means, right?  Its when a man speaks to a woman like a child because he thinks women are less intelligent.  Not really a slur, but condescending towards women generally.  You shouldn't be shocked that adults respond negatively when you speak to them like children.
Hate speech.  That one is pretty vague, but seems pretty straightforward, no?  The term itself is a catch-all for slurs.
 
 

Sorry I wasn’t clear: I meant the linked examples earlier in the thread.

Happy to discuss further in a different thread.

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

 

Not a snowflake. You’re the snowflake.

Alright enough of this topic derail. Back to the matter at hand. Brian Kemp is fuuuuucking up his run for governor in Georgia. The primaries were entertaining enough because the anointed one (Lt Gov Casey Cagle) went with a Hillary-esque “it’s his turn” approach and also got busted lying on tape about supporting issues he disagreed with if it was politically advantageous. So he lost to Brian “Shotgun Goofball” Kemp who went with the full gun-totin immigrant-hatin’ approach and it worked. In the primary at least.

The problem is now he’s up against a black female democrat who has kept her cool for the most part, and he’s massively mishandling a bunch of last minute voter registrations because, get this, for some reason we allow Secretaries of State to stay in office while they run for governor. So Abrams submits 53,000 new voter registrations which Kemp calls “sloppy paperwork” and he has frozen their processing. Now technically those people can still vote with a provisional ballot, so it’s a little disingenuous to say Kemp is stopping those people from voting. But A) they came from his opponent, B) they are 70% black, and C) there is absolutely precedent in other states for those provisional ballots to be lost in the shuffle.

What a dumbass! He had an opportunity to do the right thing here and instead played right into his opponent’s hands. Twitter and the media are screaming that Kemp is a racist who is denying tens of thousands their right to vote in a tight race.

There are two Georgias: Atlanta metro and everywhere else. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abrams win. Interestingly, Georgia’s current and previous governors were Republicans but after that you have to go back to 1872 to find another R in that seat.

 

I think Abrams is going to surprise us all and do well. It will be very close. 

 

With that said, in Georgia you have to win with over 50% of the vote. It keeps going to a runoff if that doesn’t happen. I’m expecting at least one runoff between abrams and kemp. I bet kemp wins 55-45 in the end.

Edited October 11, 2018 by Voldemort86

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

FWIW, the 25 days out projections from various polling nerds:

538: 230/205 D House (77.5% chance to take control). 52-48 GOP Senate (82% chance to retain control.)

Harry Enten (CNN, former 538): 227-208 D House. 52-48 GOP Senate.

Elliot Morris (Economist): 224-211 D House. 

All seem reasonable to me. I think D's likely pick up a good number of house seats in traditionally-D or swing areas that went Trump-y in 2016 (Upper Midwest, Northeast, VA, CA) but GOP will squeak out enough 2-3 point wins in the lean-R seats in red areas to keep it from being a total blowout. GOP probably defends most of their turf in the Senate and knocks off 1-2 red-state Dems. D's also pick up several governorships. 

Rancorous gridlock in DC until 2020. The next 2 years make the last 2 seem calm by comparison. POTUS continues to spend every day of the next 24 months as a festering national cancer. Goes into 2020 election with <=40% approval rating and still wins somehow b/c D's totally fuck up nomination.

I’m down......

 

even if we take a beating in the senate ( looks like we might). As long as we win a bunch of state seats, governorships, and take back the house, I’d still consider this a good election. 

 

Don’t get discouraged by the bad numbers for senate democrats in Nevada, Texas, Tennessee, and Arizona. We still have a lot to fight for and (hopefully) win. I want to see trump and his administration lose their enablers in the house. These guys need to be throughly investigated, My only concern is I don’t want the democrats to over do it and turnoff the American people.

[G650 14105]

So the GOP is officially a bunch of 19th century Tories now. Next thing you know they will be fighting to reinstate the Corn Laws.

[tantric superman 4667]

https://twitter.com/SamuelLJackson/status/1050433082799546368

 

[tantric superman 4667]

Vote for Colin.  I'm getting more realistic about the statewide guys but hoping the Dems can make some changes in the Dallas area. 

[Tuco 5076]

[mention=803]Dahobbs[/mention] Yes there are lots of voters who did not vote at all in 2014 that are sending mail-in ballots right now and you can see the Black voters in this category make up 57.8% of the votes already cast for 2018.

Correction: 57.8% of the blacks who have already voted did not vote in 2014.

[Aqua Buddha 14508]

1 hour ago, G650 said:

So the GOP is officially a bunch of 19th century Tories now. Next thing you know they will be fighting to reinstate the Corn Laws.

[Js1 85108]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m down......

 

even if we take a beating in the senate ( looks like we might). As long as we win a bunch of state seats, governorships, and take back the house, I’d still consider this a good election. 

 

Don’t get discouraged by the bad numbers for senate democrats in Nevada, Texas, Tennessee, and Arizona. We still have a lot to fight for and (hopefully) win. I want to see trump and his administration lose their enablers in the house. These guys need to be throughly investigated, My only concern is I don’t want the democrats to over do it and turnoff the American people.

If Democrats can keep the GOP from picking up more than 2, they are in great shape in 2020. They have 2 great pickups in CO and ME, plus Arizona special, NC, GA and IA 

[Voldemort86 2259]

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If Democrats can keep the GOP from picking up more than 2, they are in great shape in 2020. They have 2 great pickups in CO and ME, plus Arizona special, NC, GA and IA 

You’re right.

 

i don’t have any delusions about taking the senate this year. Dems should just hope to keep it as close as possible.  I’d consider 52-48 Republican majority a victory, 53-47 is ok,  if the repubs get 54 or 55 seats its a disaster tho. We might be shut out of taking the senate for awhile. Hopefully McConnell doesn’t last much longer then 2020, I hate that guy. I’m not hoping he dies, just something comes up that forces him to resign or retire.

[Buzzrock 14871]

So the GOP is officially a bunch of 19th century Tories now. Next thing you know they will be fighting to reinstate the Corn Laws.

The ones in Iowa already are.

[G650 14105]

Just now, Buzzrock said:

 

The ones in Iowa already are.

 

Save us Robert Peel, you're our only hope. 

[GRHorn 105]

SIAP oof you can cross off AZ for Dem flip.  This is brutal. 

 

[Lurch 5921]

Some of them, I assume, are good people.

[Bash Riprock 1695]

[Aqua Buddha 14508]

10 hours ago, GRHorn said:

SIAP oof you can cross off AZ for Dem flip.  This is brutal. 

 

No one cares.  Besides, she's right.  Arizona gives Texas a run for craziness and the people of Arizona know it.

Edited October 12, 2018 by Aqua Buddha

[Chad Fuck 17565]

Every time someone repeats “mob” I’m posting this.

[GRHorn 105]

34 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

No one cares.  Besides, she's right.  Arizona gives Texas a run for craziness and the people of Arizona know it.

You think no voters would be turned off by that?  She is quite disparaging in the video. 

[G650 14105]

19 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Every time someone repeats “mob” I’m posting this.

[Buzzrock 14871]

Every time someone repeats “mob” I’m posting this.

#bothsides

[EMAWesome 101]

Florida 27th district, a district Hillary won by 20 points in 2016.

Salazar(R)-44

Shalala(D)-42

Shalala is former cabinet member in the Clinton Administration.  Granted she could be losing points in her district for flushing Miami's football team down the toilet when she was president at Miami.

[Aqua Buddha 14508]

1 minute ago, EMAWesome said:

Florida 27th district, a district Hillary won by 20 points in 2016.

Salazar(R)-44

Shalala(D)-42

Shalala is former cabinet member in the Clinton Administration.  Granted she could be losing points in her district for flushing Miami's football team down the toilet when she was president at Miami.

Same Shalala?  How old is she?  Why the hell is she running for Congress?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Same Shalala?  How old is she?  Why the hell is she running for Congress?

To replicate her success at UM with the football program ?

[Js1 85108]

Old people get bored and don't want to die.

She's 77 I think? She was legitimately the worst person to be nominated in a Hispanic-majority district. She doesn't even fucking speak Spanish.

If she won, I don't she how she'd even run again in 2020.  God damn, enjoy your fucking twilight years.

[atomheartbevo 89422]

Maybe already posted, but saw where Travis County hit 93% of eligible voters being registered, which is a record.  90% in 2016.

Feeds into the narrative that Texas as a whole is seeing an increase in activity. Don’t know if it’s enough.

[G650 14105]

40 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Old people get bored and don't want to die.

She's 77 I think? She was legitimately the worst person to be nominated in a Hispanic-majority district. She doesn't even fucking speak Spanish.

If she won, I don't she how she'd even run again in 2020.  God damn, enjoy your fucking twilight years.

I still find the fact she is running this year by far the most absurd thing out.

 

I'm still bitter about her fucking up Dem Canes doe...

[Storm the Field 5273]

1 hour ago, EMAWesome said:

Florida 27th district, a district Hillary won by 20 points in 2016.

Salazar(R)-44

Shalala(D)-42

FWIW, It's a Mason-Dixon poll (check their 2012 work in Florida) that also shows Trump at 43/46 approval rating in a district that Clinton won by 20. 

If Trump is -3 in Miami, then he's well above 50% nationally and even Rasmussen is underestimating his popularity.

Edited October 12, 2018 by Storm the Field

[Gil Bang 25897]

Just received my mail-in ballot. 

I really like Diane Feinstein. She's been a terrific senator for CA, but I'm voting for DeLeon.  I can't vote for an 85 year old for anything other than "great grandma".  

Thanks Diane, for all you've done.  Enjoy the years you have left in peace and tranquility. 

[David Dennison 18656]

21 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

FWIW, It's a Mason-Dixon poll (check their 2012 work in Florida) that also shows Trump at 43/46 approval rating in a district that Clinton won by 20. 

If Trump is -3 in Miami, then he's well above 50% nationally and even Rasmussen is underestimating his popularity.

Trump is historically unpopular.

 

[Js1 85108]

4 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

No one cares.  Besides, she's right.  Arizona gives Texas a run for craziness and the people of Arizona know it.

Republicans have been shitting on their own constituents for decades.  But wahhhh Sinema said something.  I mean, remember when Greg Abbott dissed Austin as not Texas?

Quote

"As you leave Aus­tin and start heading north, you start feeling different. Once you cross the Travis County line, it starts smelling different. And you know what that fragrance is? Freedom. It's the smell of freedom that does not exist in Austin, Texas."

 

[GRHorn 105]

Just now, Js1 said:

Republicans have been shitting on their own constituents for decades.  But wahhhh Sinema said something.  I mean, remember when Greg Abbott dissed Austin as not Texas?

 

It’s a “deplorables” level video. Not gonna end well for her. Not sure why anybody is really defending it honestly. 

[Storm the Field 5273]

21 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Trump is historically unpopular.

That's kinda the point I was getting at. This poll has Trump approval way higher than you'd expect in the district. It also shows Nelson and Gillum with much smaller leads than one would expect. If Nelson is really only +4 in Miami, he'll lose the state by 10+.

In mid-October 2012, Mason-Dixon had Nelson with a thin 3 point lead in Florida. He won by 13.

Either this poll had a janky sample, or every other pollster in the country is wrong and Trump is way more popular than we think and the red wave will wash over us all. 

[David Dennison 18656]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It’s a “deplorables” level video. Not gonna end well for her. Not sure why anybody is really defending it honestly. 

Probably because it's true, just like the deplorables comment.

[GRHorn 105]

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Probably because it's true, just like the deplorables comment.

Agree to disagree.  

Still that kind of attitude loses you elections, but at least you have your inflated sense of self. 

[Js1 85108]

6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Probably because it's true, just like the deplorables comment.

Turned out we underestimated the level of deplorables.