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2018 - Elections and Trends

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

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The Houston Chronicle just threw its support behind Sri Kulkarni in TX-22. My my, how times have changed. Pete Olson used to be the kind of business-friendly Republican that the Chron would have endorsed back in February under a more normal political environment. (That's the breaks when you and your ilk sign a petition to give the Dotard the Nobel Peace Prize over the NK photo op.)

I talked to one of the Kulkarni campaign heads about polling, or the lack thereof, in the district. He acknowledged that its been harder to find volunteers in Brazoria County, which is where the election could be lost, but their feelers indicated they had the lead in Fort Bend County and that the race should be considered a toss-up.

Just another idea if you're looking to throw another $25 with Act Blue to a campaign that isn't taking PAC money in a district that may be in play. 

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

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On 10/12/2018 at 6:38 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Good for Waller doing the right thing when the students were just following the rules as they were told.  Like anyone govt workers can make mistakes and you shouldn’t penalize voters because of a mistake. 

Let's not give Waller County too much credit. Better than the alternative, for sure, but it really took the weight of two nearby congresspersons as well as a Rachel Maddow expose to get this corrected?

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13412

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1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

 

And he will win by a large margin because Evil, communist democrats.   There was the previous story where many (all?) of the farmers in his district rely on illegal immigrants so they can make a profit.  But they won’t vote democrat even though king wants to deport all of them. 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33843

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6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

And he will win by a large margin because Evil, communist democrats.   There was the previous story where many (all?) of the farmers in his district rely on illegal immigrants so they can make a profit.  But they won’t vote democrat even though king wants to deport all of them. 

wait, you mean dumb people vote against their own interests?

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Thankfully after the Kavanaugh shit show, most experts still think Dems will pick up between 20-40 seats in the house.

538 gives the Dems about an 80% chance of control. The map looks good on cook political report too. Election Day is still about 3 weeks away so some of the Kavanaugh buzz should fade for repubs. I’m not worried about dem enthusiasm, we’ve been pissed and waiting on this election for 2 years.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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4 hours ago, Celery Man said:

Can y'all in Georgia please elect Stacey Abrams.

We're trying my dude. I'm sure you've seen all the underhandedness going on in the Voter Suppression thread, but I think turnout will be at a much higher level than the last midterms.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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50 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

We're trying my dude. I'm sure you've seen all the underhandedness going on in the Voter Suppression thread, but I think turnout will be at a much higher level than the last midterms.

It would be a victory to even force a run off. Nobody can win with a plurality in Georgia. As we saw in Alabama, if the election comes up at a weird time, the democrats can win. I know Brian kemp isn’t a pedofile tho ( probably), but he still points shot guns at teenagers.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26279

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We're trying my dude. I'm sure you've seen all the underhandedness going on in the Voter Suppression thread, but I think turnout will be at a much higher level than the last midterms.

I know a lady in rural Georgia who casually says the N word sometimes and is voting for Stacy Abrams. That feels like a good sign.
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Thankfully after the Kavanaugh shit show, most experts still think Dems will pick up between 20-40 seats in the house.

538 gives the Dems about an 80% chance of control. The map looks good on cook political report too. Election Day is still about 3 weeks away so some of the Kavanaugh buzz should fade for repubs. I’m not worried about dem enthusiasm, we’ve been pissed and waiting on this election for 2 years.

I have been watching the posts on the Kavanaugh thread as a gauge of Republican excitement over his nomination. The thread is pretty dead with 3 weeks to go. 

By election day I think the Republicans will lose almost the entire enthusiasm bump that came out of the hearings.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
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40 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:


I know a lady in rural Georgia who casually says the N word sometimes and is voting for Stacy Abrams. That feels like a good sign.

Said it before somewhere here, but there are clearly enough people who would vote for her, it's all a matter of turnout and a proper election being ran. I don't think there will be a runoff either, I think someone will outright win it on November 6th.

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Mole

Mole 4320

Posted
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42 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:


I know a lady in rural Georgia who casually says the N word sometimes and is voting for Stacy Abrams. That feels like a good sign.

I guess that's the glass half full version.

Georgia early voting starts tomorrow morning.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, GSU&UT said:

Said it before somewhere here, but there are clearly enough people who would vote for her, it's all a matter of turnout and a proper election being ran. I don't think there will be a runoff either, I think someone will outright win it on November 6th.

Isn’t there a 3rd party candidate whose expecting to get roughly 5% of the vote? 

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, RayDog said:

I have been watching the posts on the Kavanaugh thread as a gauge of Republican excitement over his nomination. The thread is pretty dead with 3 weeks to go. 

By election day I think the Republicans will lose almost the entire enthusiasm bump that came out of the hearings.

Let’s hope you’re right.

i think hurricane Michael has been dominating the news ( rightfully so) it sucks that a devastating hurricane had to hit Florida, but at least people aren’t really talking about Kavanaugh anymore. I’m glad texas has to wait another 7 days to start voting. Hopefully some repubs won’t be as angry and motivated. Beto probably won’t win, but I was hoping to see Pete Sessions or culberson lose. 

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Isn’t there a 3rd party candidate whose expecting to get roughly 5% of the vote? 

 

The libertarian candidate is polling only around 2 or 3%. I could see him getting a bigger vote this year but he would pull from more educated typical republican voters who may be getting more sick of trump.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I fucking love watching these Republicans get called out over and over for this ACA lawsuit 

 

They’re being a bunch of pussies about it.

 

They fully support their lawsuit and want the courts to kill Obamacare, but at the same time, the repubs say that they fully support protections for pre-existing conditions. Anyone who believes them is a total moron. Remember all of the shity healthcare plans they put forth that would’ve led to over 25 million people losing insurance on average? 

What a bunch spineless, gutless, turds...... either go all in and say Obamacare should be killed or don’t bother at all. There is and shouldn’t be a middle ground. Anyone with half a brain should’ve realized by now that the repubs can’t fix healthcare. The Dems need to hammer them on this repeatedly. Over and over and over.... all over the country.

I hope Scott “ pond scum” walker goes down hard.

Edited by Voldemort86
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Republican enthusiasm is not that important seeing as that a smaller than ever number of people identify themselves as "Republican."  Of course the enthusiasm with them as high.  All that's left is the core supporters.

I also wonder about how many never Trumpers and anti abortion single issue voters who will be happy with the Republican supreme court but don't care about the rest of their agenda and not bother to come out.

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gmr548

gmr548 16511

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2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Republican enthusiasm is not that important seeing as that a smaller than ever number of people identify themselves as "Republican."  Of course the enthusiasm with them as high.  All that's left is the core supporters.

That and R enthusiasm was already high in 2016 and even 2014. Even if it is theoretically up slightly, it is nothing in a relative sense compared to what we're seeing from Ds and independents. Combined with the declining party ID you point out it is clear that there is no red wave coming. Ds know exactly the targets they need to hit and if they GOTV in competitive races they can clean up.

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27 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That and R enthusiasm was already high in 2016 and even 2014. Even if it is theoretically up slightly, it is nothing in a relative sense compared to what we're seeing from Ds and independents. Combined with the declining party ID you point out it is clear that there is no red wave coming. Ds know exactly the targets they need to hit and if they GOTV in competitive races they can clean up.

I agree with you, I mean even up this thread there are posts about how FoxNews has even gotten bored with Trump rallies. As Trump will have to engage in crazier and crazier antics to get his attention (Exhibit A: Kanye West having a manic moment in the White House), it's unsustainable. It's like a drug user. You can get high at first off a little bit but after a while you need more and more and more and keep chasing the dragon.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

That and R enthusiasm was already high in 2016 and even 2014. Even if it is theoretically up slightly, it is nothing in a relative sense compared to what we're seeing from Ds and independents. Combined with the declining party ID you point out it is clear that there is no red wave coming. Ds know exactly the targets they need to hit and if they GOTV in competitive races they can clean up.

The big question is who are independents supporting this year? They broke trumps way in 2016. I think the comey investigation really messed things up for Clinton and drove a stake through the democrats enthusiasm. It makes people pause and rethink their vote when the FBI comes out right before an election and pretty much says “we’re investigating ..... because we think she’s a criminal!”.

independents and late deciders usually side with the party out of power and I haven’t seen anything from the repubs in congress to make me think they deserve to be re-elected. What have they really done besides fail to kill Obamacare( thank god) and pass a tax cut for the rich / big business bill? 

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

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9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Thankfully after the Kavanaugh shit show, most experts still think Dems will pick up between 20-40 seats in the house.

538 gives the Dems about an 80% chance of control. The map looks good on cook political report too. Election Day is still about 3 weeks away so some of the Kavanaugh buzz should fade for repubs. I’m not worried about dem enthusiasm, we’ve been pissed and waiting on this election for 2 years.

The Pubs' message is nationalized. "Supreme Court, Pelosi, George Soros, MS-13, grwahrrr!" This is great for them for the highest level races (Senate) but declines precipitously in effectiveness as you go down-ballot. Even at the Congressional level, more targeted approaches that factor in local politics should hopefully get a lot of Dems elected. Let's cross our fingers that it also pays dividends further down ballot in state and local-level races. 

 

2 hours ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I agree with you, I mean even up this thread there are posts about how FoxNews has even gotten bored with Trump rallies. As Trump will have to engage in crazier and crazier antics to get his attention (Exhibit A: Kanye West having a manic moment in the White House), it's unsustainable. It's like a drug user. You can get high at first off a little bit but after a while you need more and more and more and keep chasing the dragon.

I agree with your scenario, but I don't think this will be bad for Trump. Evidence points to Trump doing better in the polls the more he can stay out of the news. The Kavanaugh hearing and passage of the tax cuts are really the only events of his presidency where he saw a bump in the polls during and following their occurrence. Everything else that has come in the news cycle has hurt him. Independents are driving his approval rating now that the D's and R's are all dug in.

I'll go a step further. If his shit-show rallies become passe, they will be yet another of his worst traits to be normalized within American politics. That's bad for us all. If he gets reelected, this and the larger subject of voter fatigue would have been a big reason why, despite any problems it causes with Republicans down-ballot.

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Js1

Js1 85109

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So they did a study where the top-spending GOP super PAC that was going to do a "total tax reform ad blitz in 2018" has mentioned the tax cut in less than 20% of their ads.  It's a political loser.

Literally, the closing message for the Democrats should be:  Clean up Trump's corruption.  Investigate Trump's scandals.  Protect health care.  Fix the failed tax cuts. 

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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12 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

They’re being a bunch of pussies about it.

 

They fully support their lawsuit and want the courts to kill Obamacare, but at the same time, the repubs say that they fully support protections for pre-existing conditions. Anyone who believes them is a total moron. Remember all of the shity healthcare plans they put forth that would’ve led to over 25 million people losing insurance on average? 

What a bunch spineless, gutless, turds...... either go all in and say Obamacare should be killed or don’t bother at all. There is and shouldn’t be a middle ground. Anyone with half a brain should’ve realized by now that the repubs can’t fix healthcare. The Dems need to hammer them on this repeatedly. Over and over and over.... all over the country.

I hope Scott “ pond scum” walker goes down hard.

I also like how they love to attack Dems for wanting the "gubment" to take over your healthcare while at the same time claiming that, unlike their opponent, they will protect Medicare.

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gmr548

gmr548 16511

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The big question is who are independents supporting this year? They broke trumps way in 2016. I think the comey investigation really messed things up for Clinton and drove a stake through the democrats enthusiasm. It makes people pause and rethink their vote when the FBI comes out right before an election and pretty much says “we’re investigating ..... because we think she’s a criminal!”.
independents and late deciders usually side with the party out of power and I haven’t seen anything from the repubs in congress to make me think they deserve to be re-elected. What have they really done besides fail to kill Obamacare( thank god) and pass a tax cut for the rich / big business bill? 
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the spike in independent enthusiasm isn't because a bunch of typically disengaged people that aren't Republicans want ti rubber stamp Trump.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Js1

Js1 85109

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38 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Yeah about that...

 

Listen to this man.

Ralston was the only one on Election Night going "Hillary is going to win this state. Ignore the Trump lead in the RCP and polls."  And Hillary won NV.

Nevada is a weird state.  Service industry employees working weird hours and the NV Dem machine led by Reid is not going to lose in 2018.

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Mole

Mole 4320

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GA early voter checking in here. I parked next to the Confederate memorial that's maybe 15 years old and voted Abrams. In a normal time, I would have voted for the libertarian election nerd that's spamming my Facebook for Secretary of State (Smythe DuVal) because he seems like the type of person we need in that job, but this isn't a normal time anymore. It was straight D except for some local positions. This is the first time I've ever done that.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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14 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

🤣

did that come up in their debate tonight?  I think mcstinky would be a terrible Senator. She’s voted with trump over 97% of the time. She would be a brainless rubber stamp. I hope Arizona picks the independent, strong, and intelligent candidate who thinks for herself, but I doubt it.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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The American Health Care Act was a repeal and replace measure that would have taken away key parts of the ACA and cut billions of dollars from the country's Medicaid program. Democrats have criticized McSally's vote as potentially hurting both people with pre-existing conditions and those ages 50 to 64.

"They are resorting to desperate fear tactics," McSally said during a get-out-the-vote rally at the state GOP headquarters last weekend. "I voted to protect people with pre-existing conditions."

She reiterated those sentiments on Friday to The Republic, saying her opponents have "nothing to run on" so they are resorting to fear tactics.

They are all bald faced liars. All of them. 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/14/martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-odds-over-affordable-care-act-obamacare-aca-arizona-senate-race/1582385002/

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Good news guys

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

the 538 house model predicts the democrats have an 85% chance of retaking the house. Most democrats including myself figured the kavanaugh effect would be isolated to the senate races and it looks like that is the case. There’s still more time for the kavanaugh buzz to wane. Cross your fingers!

ill be very curious to see if cook and sabato have race rating changes this week in favor of the Dems. I’d like for the house to be a highly likely flip by election night so I don’t have to worry about it. This is still significant tho. We saw the first good round of polling yesterday since the kavanaugh bullshit.

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