2018 - Elections and Trends

[zork 629]

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Who's that again in WV 03? Oh yeah. The nut.

[Js1 85109]

Just now, cactusflinthead said:

Who's that again in WV 03? Oh yeah. The nut.

BuT kAvAnAuGh ReD wAvE!

[FondrenRoad 4378]

3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Who's that again in WV 03? Oh yeah. The nut.

Collins will still win. Guaranteed.  He could probably win that district while in prison even. Only being under indictment still gives him deniability. 

[Js1 85109]

8 hours ago, Fozzz said:

 

 

McSally also took her name off a dreamer/DACA bill so she could win Trump's endorsement in the Senate primary.

[Js1 85109]

 

[Message Board User 12389]

13 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

That all sounds very persuasive to progressive leaning people who follow the day to day minutiae of politics.   To Average Joe Arizonan, that race is now about whether or not the blond lady said it's okay to join the Taliban.

Is it too much to ask that Democratic candidates not act like complete fucktards?

never ever ever ever underestimate the Dems ability to miss a chip shot field goal to win the game.

[Js1 85109]

22 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

That all sounds very persuasive to progressive leaning people who follow the day to day minutiae of politics.   To Average Joe Arizonan, that race is now about whether or not the blond lady said it's okay to join the Taliban.

It's quite obvious McSally is behind. (Maybe outside the MOE behind in her own internals) She is flinging shit at the walls, and then going up to the wall to smear the shit over the floor.  She's trying to define Sinema, but the whole point is do it EARLY, not 3 weeks from the election.

[Js1 85109]

Btw - in my "these are the political ads I'm seeing on Hulu" update -

New Culberson ad is 4 very 'diverse' women standing around a kitchen island, squawking NANCY PELOSI over and over again.  Apparently we couldn't afford Nancy Pelosi 10 years ago.  Man, not voting for her in the TX-7 race. 

[horncyclist 1386]

 

Very encouraging. Especially VA-10 and KS-3.

[GSU&UT 1798]

11 hours ago, Mole said:

GA early voter checking in here. I parked next to the Confederate memorial that's maybe 15 years old and voted Abrams. In a normal time, I would have voted for the libertarian election nerd that's spamming my Facebook for Secretary of State (Smythe DuVal) because he seems like the type of person we need in that job, but this isn't a normal time anymore. It was straight D except for some local positions. This is the first time I've ever done that.

Posted earlier, but this is a good site.

http://www.georgiavotes.com/

Doubt the turnout level will continue to be such a huge difference, but after the first day of in-person early voting we're seeing over 2.5x increase compared to 2014.

This is also a very useful site to track early voting everywhere,

http://www.electproject.org/early_2018

 

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

On ‎10‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 7:37 AM, GRHorn said:

Heller leads 48-41 in poll released today for NV Sen. 

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/two-emerson-e-polls-republicans-edge-us-senate-governor-races-nevada-new-hampshire-races-come-focus#.W8Sl4hpOmhD

We went over this in 2016. Democrats are always vastly underestimated by polls, because their base isn't poll able. 

[Buzzrock 14871]

I’m not a fan of early voting, too much fun stuff happens in the home stretch. Then again, none of it has ever made me change my vote.

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mollyhensleyclancy/democrats-blue-wave-midterms-suburban-woman-voters

Once reliably Republican-voting, college-educated white women — who make up a large portion of women voters in the suburbs — flipped from Mitt Romney to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a narrow 6-point margin. That gap is now a chasm. In a poll of 59 battleground House races nationwide, college-educated white women now favor Democrats over Republicans by nearly 30 points.

ruh roh 

[Brisketexan 104604]

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mollyhensleyclancy/democrats-blue-wave-midterms-suburban-woman-voters

Once reliably Republican-voting, college-educated white women — who make up a large portion of women voters in the suburbs — flipped from Mitt Romney to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a narrow 6-point margin. That gap is now a chasm. In a poll of 59 battleground House races nationwide, college-educated white women now favor Democrats over Republicans by nearly 30 points.
ruh roh 

Not enough. Old angry white guys will show up, and are all going to be allowed to vote. The other members of the opposing coalition, minorities, will not be.

Free and fair elections are a dead letter.

[Js1 85109]

85 House Democratic candidates outraised their GOP opponent - WITHOUT corporate PAC $

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Not enough. Old angry white guys will show up, and are all going to be allowed to vote. The other members of the opposing coalition, minorities, will not be.

Free and fair elections are a dead letter.

 

I have legit hope for a democratic house majority and think there is like a 30% chance for 51 dem senate seats. But I understand you’ve been this board’s Eeyore for some time.

Even Eeyore had perspective every once in a while, though. This quote is just for you Brisket: “The nicest thing about the rain is that it always stops. Eventually.”

[Dahobbs 17447]

25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Not enough. Old angry white guys will show up, and are all going to be allowed to vote. The other members of the opposing coalition, minorities, will not be.

Free and fair elections are a dead letter.

 

We have a minimum age for voting. Why can't we have a maximum? 

[Brisketexan 104604]

I have legit hope for a democratic house majority and think there is like a 30% chance for 51 dem senate seats. But I understand you’ve been this board’s Eeyore for some time.
Even Eeyore had perspective every once in a while, though. This quote is just for you Brisket: “The nicest thing about the rain is that it always stops. Eventually.”

Irrelevant when you live here:



Certain states will remain under GOP control. The SCOTUS will be conservative. The Voting Rights Act is dead. Free elections in GOP states are not going to happen. Ever.

[NameWithHeld 101]

1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

We went over this in 2016. Democrats are always vastly underestimated by polls, because their base isn't poll able. 

The election of 2016 and President Hillary say "Hi".

[Js1 85109]

On ‎6‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 6:37 AM, kevwun said:

The dude who owns the Bunny Ranch in Nevada won the GOP primary in a Nevada state Legislature race yesterday.  He's favored to win in the general.

Cross him off, he dead.

https://www.lasvegasnow.com/news/local-news/nevada-brothel-owner-dennis-hof-dies-at-72/1528456916

[Js1 85109]

1 minute ago, NameWithHeld said:

The election of 2016 and President Hillary say "Hi".

Except that was true in Nevada, where polls favored Trump by 2-3 points in Nevada and Hillary won it by 3.  Nevada almost always sees Republicans overperform in polling but lose on actual Election Day.  Aka - Trump, Angle, Heck.  Even the RCP average in 2012 was Obama 2.8 and he won it by almost 7.

[Zonahorn 8079]

3 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

The election of 2016 and President Hillary say "Hi".

Context isn't your thing is it?

[NameWithHeld 101]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Except that was true in Nevada, where polls favored Trump by 2-3 points in Nevada and Hillary won it by 3.  Nevada almost always sees Republicans overperform in polling but lose on actual Election Day.  Aka - Trump, Angle, Heck.  Even the RCP average in 2012 was Obama 2.8 and he won it by almost 7.

True.  I was referring to Nationwide polling sorry for the confusion that was my fault.

[Voldemort86 2259]

41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Irrelevant when you live here:



Certain states will remain under GOP control. The SCOTUS will be conservative. The Voting Rights Act is dead. Free elections in GOP states are not going to happen. Ever.

Can they really suppress the vote that much?  If you’re over 18, a citizen, and have no criminal record it’s not very difficult to get registered to vote. 

[Brisketexan 104604]

Can they really suppress the vote that much?  If you’re over 18, a citizen, and have no criminal record it’s not very difficult to get registered to vote. 

It’s really easy to get purged from the rolls, though. Especially if you don’t have a generic white name.

Put an apostrophe in there, or a hyphen, or two words (like de la Garza), and you’ll get purged. It’s happening in Georgia as we speak.

The GOP will do everything they can to keep minorities from voting. They’re not even trying to hide it.

[hayden_horn 11360]

6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Can they really suppress the vote that much?  If you’re over 18, a citizen, and have no criminal record it’s not very difficult to get registered to vote. 

 

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It’s really easy to get purged from the rolls, though. Especially if you don’t have a generic white name.

Put an apostrophe in there, or a hyphen, or two words (like de la Garza), and you’ll get purged. It’s happening in Georgia as we speak.

The GOP will do everything they can to keep minorities from voting. They’re not even trying to hide it.

i mean, it's not like we don't have a full fucking thread on this:

VOTER SUPPRESSION THREAD

[Js1 85109]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

 

 

Not enough. Old angry white guys will show up, and are all going to be allowed to vote. The other members of the opposing coalition, minorities, will not be.

Free and fair elections are a dead letter.

 

But remember, my dude, the GOP gerrymandered the House with the belief they would never lose this exact demographic by 30. fucking. points.

The gerrymander is about to look like a blown out asshole after Election Day.

[Brisketexan 104604]

But remember, my dude, the GOP gerrymandered the House with the belief they would never lose this exact demographic by 30. fucking. points.
The gerrymander is about to look like a blown out asshole after Election Day.

Which is why the go with plan B: naked and shameless voter suppression.

And if you think that they aren’t also working in active concert with actors who can and have infiltrated our electronic voting systems, you’re a sucker.

The GOP is not about to allow any free and fair elections.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Which is why the go with plan B: naked and shameless voter suppression.

And if you think that they aren’t also working in active concert with actors who can and have infiltrated our electronic voting systems, you’re a sucker.

The GOP is not about to allow any free and fair elections.

So you think the GOP will hold the House? 

[Brisketexan 104604]

So you think the GOP will hold the House? 

Don’t know.

Doesn’t matter. They can’t stop anything.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Don’t know.

Doesn’t matter. They can’t stop anything.

I'm confused.   Are you saying they can't stop people voting for Dem or they will? 

[Brisketexan 104604]

I'm confused.   Are you saying they can't stop people voting for Dem or they will? 

I mean a dem House is a moral victory.

Trump will still do whatever he wants. Commit all the crimes that he wants. A subservient senate and SCOTUS will protect him. He is answerable to no one. This is how you create an authoritarian state - install compliant and toothless “checks” on power. After that, game over.

[lemonlime 5503]

Unfortunately, I'm on team Brisket.  The Constitution is just a piece of paper.  Our entire system of government requires people in charge who believe in the Constitution and the people (or at least most of us) to believe the government is legitimate.   Hell, the entire idea of government, particularly democracy, is a fiction that we have convinced ourselves of.  Once we the people no longer believe in it, it doesn't exist.

 

Whatever happens this election, Trump will ignore whatever he doesn't like from Congress and the courts.  And if the Dems win, Trump and his supporters will lie that it was due to millions of illegal aliens voting.  If the pubs win, well then, a large portion of the country will believe it was due to voter suppression, and there will be no remedy.  Whatever happens, we're fucked.

Edit to add: it's probably too late to fix this.  We had a window at the beginning of the presidency to hold Trump to account (emoluments, Russia, the Muslim ban, etc.).  Once he got away with all that and his supporters kept moving the goal posts of what was acceptable, and violating so many norms no one can keep it straight it was too late.

Edited October 16, 2018 by lemonlime

[G650 14106]

Why do ya'll think I'm moving to Switzerland 

[Biff Tannen 45494]

16 minutes ago, G650 said:

Why do ya'll think I'm moving to Switzerland 

Canada here.

[Js1 85109]

32 minutes ago, G650 said:

Why do ya'll think I'm moving to Switzerland 

So you can yank it to the Swiss Miss?

[Bama Chick 28596]

This is who we are now.

Thanks GOP!

[Brisketexan 104604]

This is who we are now.

Thanks GOP!

Thank god he didn’t do anything to degrade a political office, like wearing a tan suit.

[Anastasis 23395]

32 minutes ago, G650 said:

Why do ya'll think I'm moving to Switzerland 

For the standard issue assault rifle?

[Anastasis 23395]

Just now, Bama Chick said:

This is who we are now.

Thanks GOP!
 

Also, Grover Norquist. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Some friendly election advice from a lady on Twitter.

 

“Our democracy is in crisis. The president degrades the rule of law, spreads corruption, and discredits truth. Over the next three weeks, we all have a chance to turn back the tide. Here are three things you can do before November 6:

Study after study shows that person-to-person conversations are the most effective way to turn people out to vote. 

Sign up with @SwingLeft to knock on doors in a toss-up congressional district near you during the last weekend before the election.

Make a plan to vote, volunteer, make strategic donations, and turn out friends with crushthemidterms.org. 

Just answer a few questions about where you vote and how you can help and they'll send you a personalized plan of action.

Take advantage of @IndivisibleTeam's virtual phone-banking tool to make calls reminding people to vote. 

Recruit some friends to join you and make an afternoon of it.

Whatever you do, do something. These midterm elections are our last chance to defend our democracy. Let's win.”

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean a dem House is a moral victory.

Trump will still do whatever he wants. Commit all the crimes that he wants. A subservient senate and SCOTUS will protect him. He is answerable to no one. This is how you create an authoritarian state - install compliant and toothless “checks” on power. After that, game over.

Pretty sure it’s hard to have an “authoritarian” government when 90% of the media opposes the leader. But you keep doing you, Brisket. 

[G650 14106]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Canada here.

Too close. And too many Ford brothers still alive. 

[horncyclist 1386]

Pretty sure it’s hard to have an “authoritarian” government when 90% of the media opposes the leader. But you keep doing you, Brisket. 

I don't think this is the way it's going but if you wanted to eliminate a free press, you would first delegitimize them. Then when you start on the censorship no one cares.

[Brisketexan 104604]

Pretty sure it’s hard to have an “authoritarian” government when 90% of the media opposes the leader. But you keep doing you, Brisket. 

I don't think this is the way it's going but if you wanted to eliminate a free press, you would first delegitimize them. Then when you start on the censorship no one cares.

See fascism playbook, page 2.

Every single play is 100% predictable.

Eliminate the free press. Control all possible checks on your power. Characterize your opponents as criminals. Sound familiar?

[GRHorn 105]

30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

See fascism playbook, page 2.

Every single play is 100% predictable.

Eliminate the free press. Control all possible checks on your power. Characterize your opponents as criminals. Sound familiar?

 

Ah yes the Trump is fascist/Hitler angle. 

Tell me something Brisket, why don’t all these politicians and media that push that narrative balk at expanding military budgets, renewing NDAA, endlessly applaud any and all offensive actions, and chastise any efforts at peace?

Why hand more power to a budding fascist? 

Maybe they don’t really believe he is one. Maybe it’s just a good narrative to use to try to get themselves back into power. Maybe they’re just using fear to get votes as is always criticized (rightly) around here.  They’ve got some of y’all wound up well. 

[Gil Bang 25897]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

27 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

That’s funny....

 

brat knows that he sucks and everyone hates him. His only hope is to “scare” his constituents into voting for him. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Another fun article to read about the repubs and their house majority. 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/democrats-republicans-fundraising-midterms-908825

 

is there anyway the repubs can copy this campaign financing infrastructure?  I know they usually rely on their daddy Sheldon Adelson. I hate that guy so much and I’m glad he’s 85. Hopefully he won’t be a factor anymore soon.