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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Texas73

Texas73 420

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Boy--I find that hard to believe.  I mean, I think Sessions is in a lot of trouble.  But I think Hurd is a dead-congressman walking.  He wins that district by a nose in the most Republican of years--it's impossible for me to see how he wins it in this environment.

And I think Culberson is probably in worse shape than Sessions.  

And I wouldn't sleep on John Carter.  He shouldn't be in as much trouble as he's in.  But he is.

Totally agree. Hurd is a dead man walking.

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104624

Posted
Posted
Totally agree. Hurd is a dead man walking.

Damned shame, too, because he’s one of the good ones.

But....lie down with dogs, you get fleas. “GOP” is a badge of shame for a lot of voters, and rightly so. When you hold office by the slimmest of margins, that’s sort of thing will kill you.
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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Damned shame, too, because he’s one of the good ones.

But....lie down with dogs, you get fleas. “GOP” is a badge of shame for a lot of voters, and rightly so. When you hold office by the slimmest of margins, that’s sort of thing will kill you.

But he's also an Aggy. So he's 0-2 in picking who to associate with.

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F250

F250 28689

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

But he's also an Aggy. So he's 0-2 in picking who to associate with.

I read in an interview that he choose aggy over Stanford and he was a computer science major. That's like turning down a lunch invite to Perry's for lunch at Golden Corral . 

 

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, F250 said:

I read in an interview that he choose aggy over Stanford and he was a computer science major. That's like turning down a lunch invite to Perry's for lunch at Golden Corral . 

 

That boy ain't right

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted

All in all, it looks like the Dems. will be most heavily defending ND, IN, FL and maybe MO but damn if sneaky Claire isn't doing well.

Republicans defending Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee.

Pretty much could be 52-48 D to 52-48 R and looks like it may not change at all.

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted

That sucks for her. A lot.  The Dem candidate agreed to suspend campaigning until she's recovered.

The midterms are going to confuse me because:

1. The GOP has better odds in Florida (50/50 polling average) right now than they do West Virginia (Manchin up nearly 10 points).

2. The Dems have better odds in Arizona (Sinema up 8) and Tennessee (Bredesen up 4-5) than they do in Indiana (not much polling), North Dakota (Heitkamp down a few points) and possibly Missouri (McCaskill up a few points).

3. Claire McCaskill might end up being re-elected AGAIN in deep-red Missouri while Bill Nelson loses in purple-ish Florida.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18658

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That sucks for her. A lot.  The Dem candidate agreed to suspend campaigning until she's recovered.

The midterms are going to confuse me because:

1. The GOP has better odds in Florida (50/50 polling average) right now than they do West Virginia (Manchin up nearly 10 points).

2. The Dems have better odds in Arizona (Sinema up 8) and Tennessee (Bredesen up 4-5) than they do in Indiana (not much polling), North Dakota (Heitkamp down a few points) and possibly Missouri (McCaskill up a few points).

3. Claire McCaskill might end up being re-elected AGAIN in deep-red Missouri while Bill Nelson loses in purple-ish Florida.

The Senate is in play for the Democrats.

That is insane given the map.

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softlynow

softlynow 1783

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't know if you've heard Sinema, but she is really very impressive.  She'd be a good candidate irrespective of who she runs against.  But if she's against Kelli Ward, then she'll walk all over her.

I think all surlyians should be behind bisexual women like:

 

220px-Rep_Kyrsten_Sinema,_Official_Portr

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
On 6/22/2018 at 11:48 AM, Js1 said:

Yeah, they aren't running on it anymore. Even in PA-18 special, they gave up on it about halfway through and stopped talking about it.

Everyone not a trumpkin realizes what a scam the tax cuts were. Hell even some of the trumpkins realize it, hence trump focus on the brown invasion. 

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted

VA-10 is considered a "bellweather" of what November might look like.  Clinton +10 with an R incumbent.

Monmouth has the R incumbent, Comstock, down 10.

Kaine +18 on KKK Stewart (Q-Pac)

Sinema +11 on McSally (Marist/NBC)

Brown +13 on Renacci (Marist/NBC)

Nelson +4 on Scott (Marist/NBC)

 

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simplicity

simplicity 9

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

VA-10 is considered a "bellweather" of what November might look like.  Clinton +10 with an R incumbent.

Monmouth has the R incumbent, Comstock, down 10.

Kaine +18 on KKK Stewart (Q-Pac)

Sinema +11 on McSally (Marist/NBC)

Brown +13 on Renacci (Marist/NBC)

Nelson +4 on Scott (Marist/NBC)

 

Trump tilting Virginia and Arizona completely blue is pretty funny.

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, simplicity said:

Trump tilting Virginia and Arizona completely blue is pretty funny.

We live in a world where the GOP nominated a KKK sympathizer for Senate, who is going to drag down the GOP in the state and could flip 3-4 seats alone.

And a bisexual woman is on pace to be elected Senator in Barry Goldwater's home state.

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted (edited)

Zork you dumbass. 

Joe Crowley in Queens was the epitome of unchallenged while demographics of his district changed significantly. @Dick Tremayne Awesome win for Ocasio-Cortez. 

New York deciding to do 2 primaries - one for state and local, one for federal - biting them in the ass. Progressives are out trying to take scalps in safe blue districts in NYC. 

Crowley got Cantored

Edited by Js1
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
Posted

You compare that to M. J. Hagar’s ad—it’s a really startling contrast.

And by the way—Hagar , Sinema, Ortiz Jones, Beto—the Dems are rolling out some real impressive figures. I don’t remember either party ever having the group of candidates that the Dems have this year. It really is impressive.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12389

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Zork you dumbass. 

Joe Crowley in Queens was the epitome of unchallenged while demographics of his district changed significantly. @Dick Tremayne Awesome win for Ocasio-Cortez. 

New York deciding to do 2 primaries - one for state and local, one for federal - biting them in the ass. Progressives are out trying to take scalps in safe blue districts in NYC. 

Crowley got Cantored

Pulling the Democratic party further left...

 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Zork you dumbass. 

Joe Crowley in Queens was the epitome of unchallenged while demographics of his district changed significantly. @Dick Tremayne Awesome win for Ocasio-Cortez. 

New York deciding to do 2 primaries - one for state and local, one for federal - biting them in the ass. Progressives are out trying to take scalps in safe blue districts in NYC. 

Crowley got Cantored

Yep. The NY primary setup favors the challenger if they GOTV.  Having Cuomo on the ballot would have probably saved Crowley. Not much of a scalp change though.  They have a nearly identical platform.  They simply traded a senior position for a junior one. Oftentimes, theres a rude awakening for neophytes like Ocasio Cortez. You cant go it alone once you're in there and once you start to deal, you're establishment yourself. 

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Pulling the Democratic party further left...

 

A few Dem operatives remind pundits - this is the year of the Democrat women.  Old white man versus young Latinx female  in a demographically changed district. 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

A few Dem operatives remind pundits - this is the year of the Democrat women.  Old white man versus young Latinx female  in a demographically changed district. 

Yep and also not really pulling it left. Crowley was one of the leftmost members of Congress. She wont be appreciably different with her vote.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14519

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

You compare that to M. J. Hagar’s ad—it’s a really startling contrast.

And by the way—Hagar , Sinema, Ortiz Jones, Beto—the Dems are rolling out some real impressive figures. I don’t remember either party ever having the group of candidates that the Dems have this year. It really is impressive.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Totally agree with that.  Some of these people have never run for anything before and they're really impressive.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s Queens, NY.

Not a big deal.

Yeah, she ran on his exact platform while saying he had a different one. He should have attacked that head on but only mentioned it in passing. His big mistakes were ignoring her including no-showing a debate, and doing almost 0 GOTV.  She wont vote differently but will hopefully remain a breath of fresh air on corporate donors.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I'm no economist, some of this stuff sounds expensive.

The expensive stuff are really local issues that wont get off the starting block nationally, a couple of which are already in place in NYC.  If she focuses on immigration, infrastructure, justice reform, and Medicare for all, she will be great, but again, that's Crowleys platform too.

Edited by FondrenRoad
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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14519

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I'm no economist, some of this stuff sounds expensive.

Yeah, no kidding:

 

The nation’s fiscal outlook looks ever bleaker, thanks in part to deficit spending during President Donald Trump’s first term, Congress’ nonpartisan budget scorekeeper projected Tuesday. 

Within 16 years, the federal deficit is expected to be the largest in history, outpacing even the fiscal shortfalls that followed World War II, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/26/cbo-federal-deficit-break-records-651929

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