2018 - Elections and Trends

[Bateshorn 9928]

4 minutes ago, Brew said:

There isn’t anything confusing about it. They ran the 1 Democrat in the state with name recognition that most everyone likes against a Republican woman that most people in the middle find extreme. There isn’t any sort of political shift in the state, Bredesen just feels like a more middle of the road selection than a true D/R. As Nashville contrinues to grow, there may be some shifts but not yet.

That's not what I mean.  At all.  What's confusing is how Bredeson can go fromhaving a small but solid lead to getting the doors blown off in 2 weeks when there's been no change in the race dynamics. I get Kavanuagh may be a factor, but he's not a swing the electorate by nearly 10 points factor, otherwise Donnelly, Tester, and McCaskill would have seen a similar move.

Edited October 19, 2018 by Bateshorn

[lemonlime 5503]

16 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That's not what I mean.  At all.  What's confusing is how Bredeson can go fromhaving a small but solid lead to getting the doors blown off in 2 weeks when there's been no change in the race dynamics. I get Kavanuagh may be a factor, but he's not a swing the electorate by nearly 10 points factor, otherwise Donnelly, Tester, and McCaskill would have seen a similar move.

Maybe it's that Bredeson came out in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation?  IMO, still doesn't explain a 10 point swing.  But if you're say a republican or independent woman on the fence, and you see that the dem is going to vote the same way as Blackburn, you gotta be thinking to yourself I might as well vote for Blackburn.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13516]

Very confounding that at a time where we have technology that allows us to almost instantaneously communicate and work with anyone in the world, we keep placing more and more barriers to voting.     

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

45 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That's not what I mean.  At all.  What's confusing is how Bredeson can go fromhaving a small but solid lead to getting the doors blown off in 2 weeks when there's been no change in the race dynamics. I get Kavanuagh may be a factor, but he's not a swing the electorate by nearly 10 points factor, otherwise Donnelly, Tester, and McCaskill would have seen a similar move.

Have you ever heard of Cambridge Analytica, Brexit?

How the influence machine worked with Brexit:

Look. At. The. Graph.

 

 Not saying that’s going on but it’s foolish to not consider this dynamic.  

The GOP has done a good job of protecting their weapon when compared to the UK’s response. 

 

[Bateshorn 9928]

Maybe.  That's a possibility.  I know just enough about politics to know I don't know shit.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

Maybe.  That's a possibility.  I know just enough about politics to know I don't know shit.

That’s what sucks the most.  We don’t know... and we didn’t take nearly enough steps to prevent it like Britain because GOP gonna GOP. 

We basically have to trust the platforms to crackdown on their own this go around.  

Yay democracy! 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13516]

16 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Have you ever heard of Cambridge Analytica, Brexit?

How the influence machine worked with Brexit:

Look. At. The. Graph.

 

 Not saying that’s going on but it’s foolish to not consider this dynamic.  

The GOP has done a good job of protecting their weapon when compared to the UK’s response. 

 

Crazy that it looks like a majority of Brits want to remain in the EU but they're moving forward based on results from over 2 years ago.  If I were them, I would revote.   I don't think there is any law that forbids it.

[Brisketexan 105192]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Crazy that it looks like a majority of Brits want to remain in the EU but they're moving forward based on results from over 2 years ago.  If I were them, I would revote.   I don't think there is any law that forbids it.

The only common-sense approach is to 1) negotiate the best "deal" that you can get, and then 2) present that deal to the people for an up or down vote -- exit the EU under these terms, or Remain.  Because the prior vote was for a hypothetical, now you have a REAL measure to vote on.

They won't do it, of course, because that doesn't serve the REAL goal here -- fucking up the West so that Putin can rest easy and act with impunity.

[Js1 85472]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The only common-sense approach is to 1) negotiate the best "deal" that you can get, and then 2) present that deal to the people for an up or down vote -- exit the EU under these terms, or Remain.  Because the prior vote was for a hypothetical, now you have a REAL measure to vote on.

They won't do it, of course, because that doesn't serve the REAL goal here -- fucking up the West so that Putin can rest easy and act with impunity.

That and Teresa May has all the political acumen of Hillary Clinton.  So awful.  She SHOULD take her shitty Brexit deal and let the people vote it down and be like "oh bollocks, whatever, guess we're staying."  Instead, they're going to take a bad deal and/or keep stalling it.

[Js1 85472]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

That’s it, I’m going as George Soros for Halloween.

[Js1 85472]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That’s it, I’m going as George Soros for Halloween.

You should, Halloween is pretty socialist.  All these kids getting free shit just for showing up. 

[retread 2951]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

13 minutes ago, retread said:

 

I cant believe he’s able to get away with it.

[Pancho 44907]

 

[Biff Tannen 45697]

Not sure how that first part is a WOW.  Patagonia isn't exactly a right wing corporation.

[Js1 85472]

They've never endorsed anyone before, I believe.  Like I keep saying - time to get off the fucking sidelines.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13516]

I don't like seeing employers endorsing candidates.  I worked for a company where the owner told employees who they should vote for as he was obviously smarter than all of us since he was the boss.    I don't think anyone followed his advice on the basis that it was his advice.  

[G650 14273]

I'm torn. I e been a Patagonia pro customer for a long time, very much because of the ethos. I agree these aren't normal times, but I'm not totally comfortable with the endorsing people. On the balance though I think it's the right call given the impending climate catastrophe. 

[G650 14273]

My latest catalog has a big ass spread about voting too btw.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Like big oil, pharma, and Goldman Sachs doesn’t “endorse” candidates.

[Js1 85472]

7 minutes ago, G650 said:

I'm torn. I e been a Patagonia pro customer for a long time, very much because of the ethos. I agree these aren't normal times, but I'm not totally comfortable with the endorsing people. On the balance though I think it's the right call given the impending climate catastrophe. 

Yeah they didn't endorse like, Elizabeth Warren.  They picked 2 Senators in outdoorsy Western states that are crucial to their business. I'm surprised they didn't go for the trio and pick Sinema too, considering the Grand Canyon. 

Montana is 4th in federal land by acreage; Nevada 7th; Arizona 6th

Edited October 19, 2018 by Js1

[G650 14273]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah they didn't endorse like, Elizabeth Warren.  They picked 2 Senators in outdoorsy Western states that are crucial to their business. I'm surprised they didn't go for the trio and pick Sinema too, considering the Grand Canyon. 

Montana is 4th in federal land by acreage; Nevada 7th; Arizona 6th

Precisely. 

[Celery Man 20983]

 

@oatmealraisincookie

[Js1 85472]

Current independent going to endorse the Democrat 

 

Edited October 19, 2018 by Js1

[Message Board User 12395]

Cruz, Hannity, and Perry at the same event?  You could cut the sexual tension with a knife.

 

[Message Board User 12395]

*sigh*

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

36 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

*sigh*

 

That’s pretty sad. That lazy eyed freak has several indictments against him. It sucks that Abbott is on the ballot this year. Some people were hoping repubs would see he’s up by 20 and they’d skip voting, but I guess that was just wishful thinking. 

 

Abbott is going to load all of the undesirable repubs ( indictment Paxton, potty Patrick, and repulsive Cruz) on to his back and literally wheel them across the finish line. I’m crossing my fingers that we get at least one house seat.

[burntorangebongos 10751]

5 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That’s it, I’m going as George Soros for Halloween.

Not sure how you will pull that off but you will be the scariest mofo in the room.

[Brew 3049]

8 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

That's not what I mean.  At all.  What's confusing is how Bredeson can go fromhaving a small but solid lead to getting the doors blown off in 2 weeks when there's been no change in the race dynamics. I get Kavanuagh may be a factor, but he's not a swing the electorate by nearly 10 points factor, otherwise Donnelly, Tester, and McCaskill would have seen a similar move.

Got it. They have both gone off the rails in a negative fashion. We get multiple mailers a day, phone calls, ads, etc. I think the Kavanaugh issues plus the negativity has pulled some of the people back into the race. However, it doesn’t really explain the polls. I don’t see anything going on that would swing people from one side to the other though.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Celery Man said:

@oatmealraisincookie

I'm in Tech....Sales! lol that was a good one, bro.

[Aqua Buddha 14600]

7 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

Can't wait for the Conservative Outrage Machine to have videos of 50 year old white guys screaming "I've been a Patagonia customer for 20 years but this is just TOO MUCH!"  as they burn their $200 down jackets.

 

[Js1 85472]

i believe the correct term is “little Chinaperson”

[Gil Bang 25986]

She didn't build the fucking railroads, Walter. 

[NameWithHeld 101]

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

Yeah they didn't endorse like, Elizabeth Warren.  They picked 2 Senators in outdoorsy Western states that are crucial to their business. I'm surprised they didn't go for the trio and pick Sinema too, considering the Grand Canyon. 

Montana is 4th in federal land by acreage; Nevada 7th; Arizona 6th

No way.  Have you read the squirrelly quotes from her in the past?

[Gil Bang 25986]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Alright, we'll give some healthcare to...

[berlinerbaer 678]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

i believe the correct term is “little Chinaperson”

It's always so noticeable when someone can't quite keep the family drama private.

[berlinerbaer 678]

10 hours ago, lemonlime said:

Maybe it's that Bredeson came out in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation?  IMO, still doesn't explain a 10 point swing.  But if you're say a republican or independent woman on the fence, and you see that the dem is going to vote the same way as Blackburn, you gotta be thinking to yourself I might as well vote for Blackburn.

Throw out the Sienna College/NYT poll, as it's clearly an outlier. Now it's a more manageable 5 point swing that can be explained by his Kav endorsement.

I think voters, especially moderates, want to see contrast in candidates, so I think you're reasoning is correct. It has been reported that many volunteers left his campaign following his announcement. He can't afford to lose any door-knockers if he wants to attract these people. I wouldn't be surprised either if some liberals or progressives were turned off by his support for Kav and plan on staying home.

It was a mistake. I hope future Dems running in Red Country take heart and learn from his error.

[NameWithHeld 101]

6 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Throw out the Sienna College/NYT poll, as it's clearly an outlier. Now it's a more manageable 5 point swing that can be explained by his Kav endorsement.

I think voters, especially moderates, want to see contrast in candidates, so I think you're reasoning is correct. It has been reported that many volunteers left his campaign following his announcement. He can't afford to lose any door-knockers if he wants to attract these people. I wouldn't be surprised either if some liberals or progressives were turned off by his support for Kav and plan on staying home.

It was a mistake. I hope future Dems running in Red Country take heart and learn from his error.

Hiedi Heitkamp says “what the hell, voting no on Kavanaugh fucked me good”.  

Edited October 20, 2018 by NameWithHeld

[berlinerbaer 678]

There's been a dearth of polling out of ND, since like forever.

[Bateshorn 9928]

7 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

There's been a dearth of polling out of ND, since like forever.

This. For all of McConnell’s dick swagger, nobody knows with any certainty what’s going on in North Dakota due to lack of data.  

[FondrenRoad 4378]

15 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Like big oil, pharma, and Goldman Sachs doesn’t “endorse” candidates.

Thats different. They just buy the one that wins. 

[Tuco 5077]

23 hours ago, Js1 said:

There's 2 types of triage - "lost cause" triage (aka, IA-1, KS-3, AZ-2, CO-6, , WV-Senate, MN-Gov, etc.) and "in the bag" triage (like ND-Senate).  They sure pulled out of TX-23 screaming it was the 2nd one.

I wouldn't ignore the politics of politics.  Hurd didn't hold the party line on some of Trump's comments.  The Republican Party is now the Trump Party.  You have to consider the possibility this has little to do with polling, and everything to do with payback.  The "in the bag" narrative would be a way to avoid airing dirty laundry. 

[Buzzrock 14936]

Very confounding that at a time where we have technology that allows us to almost instantaneously communicate and work with anyone in the world, we keep placing more and more barriers to voting.     

Maybe an unpopular opinion, but I think it should take a little effort to vote. If you are able you should at least have to get off the couch and go to your polling place. I absolutely think there are many examples of closing voting locations, etc that are bad and make it unreasonably difficult especially for rural and disabled Americans. That must change. But I don’t ever want to see us voting from an app on our phone or with our TV remote controls.

[Buzzrock 14936]

I cant believe he’s able to get away with it.

There’s a real story but now it’s being sensationalized. That linked Salon article says the senior bus referenced earlier was organized by Black Lives Matter.

[Js1 85472]

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13516]

12 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

Maybe an unpopular opinion, but I think it should take a little effort to vote. If you are able you should at least have to get off the couch and go to your polling place. I absolutely think there are many examples of closing voting locations, etc that are bad and make it unreasonably difficult especially for rural and disabled Americans. That must change. But I don’t ever want to see us voting from an app on our phone or with our TV remote controls.

 

In terms of effort, I don’t think time and mileage should be the effort target that we want to achieve.   It’s not a difficult leap to say that equates to a cost such as a poll tax.   And is someone that is willing to drive 30 minutes and wait in an one-hour line more deserving of a vote than of someone that has a demanding 60-hour work week and a personal life that requires the rest of their time?

In an ideal world, we would want a voter to offer proof they understand the issues and then why not allow them to vote via an app.  I recognize displaying knowledge of an issue would be a political trap as well.   Who’s to say what is the correct answer?

[Biff Tannen 45697]

One of the scariest parts of the reality we are now living is that 30-40% of the voting population is convinced that if they do lose it is due to a conspiracy.  I'm afraid they will never admit defeat if it does come via an election.  

[troph 24901]

One of the scariest parts of the reality we are now living is that 30-40% of the voting population is convinced that if they do lose it is due to a conspiracy.  I'm afraid they will never admit defeat if it does come via an election.  

Probably split evenly on both sides honestly.

[Js1 85472]