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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

You will see plenty of articles coming out spinning this as no big deal that early voting doesn’t always really predict election results and blah blah blah but this is really bad news for republicans and they know it. There’s a reason why the orange cheetoh god is here so ted can humiliate himself and kiss his ring, and its not because lyin’ Ted has got it in the bag. 

The bigger picture is that the republicans cannot ever afford to lose Texas. Because if they do, they will never elect another President again. They are worried. 

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bolverk

bolverk 29397

Posted
Posted

Statesman guesstimating 36,000 votes in Travis by close today:

Quote

DeBeauvoir said 22,199 people had made it to the polls in person as of 3:45 p.m. That’s about 62 percent the in-person turnout — almost 36,000 voters — from the first day of early voting in 2016. That opening day in 2016 broke a record for Travis County, with more than 46,000 ballots cast in-person and by mail.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20181022/travis-county-reports-more-than-22000-early-votes-by-mid-afternoon

 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Believe it or not, but there’s actually some idiots on texags who are trying to spin this as a good thing for Cruz.

There is no better sign than this that the republicans are about to get their ass kicked. If aggy thinks its true, then the opposite is correct. 

Edited by JimmyJames
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Lurch

Lurch 5921

Posted
Posted

I don’t think I’ve ever early voted before. I’ve also never really studied down ballot races. This afternoon I spent several hours researching all of the non-partisan elections (D vs R is easy at this point), Judge/Justice affirmations, and our 12 (!) Florida constitutional amendments so that I can vote tomorrow.

Can’t. Wait.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

Posted
Posted

The major urban counties hitting turnout marks for a presidential election is very, very bad for the GOP in a midterm election.  Just catastrophically bad.  There's no other way to view it.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting as well.  It's like Game 2 of an MLB season--attendance is always minuscule.  The enthusiasm of Opening Day has worn off.  That's the day for the real fans and for the fans who like to go when attendance is light.  How many of those are there this year?

Tomorrow is when we see whether Beto's GOTV effort can flex some muscle.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14501

Posted
Posted

Bexar County was on track Monday afternoon to break the 2016 record for first-day early voting in a general election, with more than 24,000 ballots cast by 4 p.m. and two hours still to go before the polls close.

As of 4 p.m., 24,502 people had cast their ballots in the county. In the 2014 midterm elections, there were 13,436 votes after the first day. Bexar’s record first-day total for general election early voting in 2016, a presidential year, saw 35,431 people cast ballots.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/politics/article/West-Side-voters-find-long-lines-delays-at-early-13326781.php

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1385

Posted
Posted
What to the politicos on here make of this? Much ado about nothing, or reason for concern?
 
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna922881
I think this has a lot to do with it. I guarantee you that number isn't true for Texas after today.

"Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete."

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33834

Posted
Posted

Can any of the resident scotus experts weigh in here: went to vote with the lady, who was sporting a Beto shirt. Old, white election official tried to tell her she had to take it off or she couldn't vote. I told him that's incorrect and that scotus struck down that law earlier this year. He then called in for backup, and i don't think the person on the phone was giving him the answer he wanted. He asked her to cover it, which she did.

Anyway, am i correct?

I almost had to beat some old man ass.

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1385

Posted
Posted
Can any of the resident scotus experts weigh in here: went to vote with the lady, who was sporting a Beto shirt. Old, white election official tried to tell her she had to take it off or she couldn't vote. I told him that's incorrect and that scotus struck down that law earlier this year. He then called in for backup, and i don't think the person on the phone was giving him the answer he wanted. He asked her to cover it, which she did.

Anyway, am i correct?

I almost had to beat some old man ass.
Consistent with SCOTUS opinion.

"By contrast, he lauded a California law that forbids the “visible display” of a candidate’s name or likeness inside the polling place as well as apparel that includes “the display of a ballot measure’s number, title subject or logo.”

"The high court reaffirmed its view that states may preserve a “campaign-free zone outside the polls so as to protect ‘the right to vote ... and the secret ballot.’” States may also forbid “some forms of advocacy” inside polling places, Roberts wrote."

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-court-t-shirts-elections-20180614-story.html



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used2b

used2b 249

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

What to the politicos on here make of this? Much ado about nothing, or reason for concern?

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna922881

I know plenty of R-affiliated voters who are not voting that way this year. Also, if only 53% of the Texas early voters had R affiliation that low compared to the statewide affiliation.

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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 6672

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Rick Scott released his internal poll..... shockingly, he had himself in the lead!  And DeSantis too....

 

Don’t know if that’s very strategic. Better to alert your base to the real possibility you could lose rather than lull them into thinking you’ve got this in the bag

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Stilicho

Stilicho 1397

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Don’t know if that’s very strategic. Better to alert your base to the real possibility you could lose rather than lull them into thinking you’ve got this in the bag

Yeah, but this is Rick Scott we're talking about here.  

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Whitman

Whitman 694

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Can any of the resident scotus experts weigh in here: went to vote with the lady, who was sporting a Beto shirt. Old, white election official tried to tell her she had to take it off or she couldn't vote. I told him that's incorrect and that scotus struck down that law earlier this year. He then called in for backup, and i don't think the person on the phone was giving him the answer he wanted. He asked her to cover it, which she did.

Anyway, am i correct?

I almost had to beat some old man ass.

Maybe he just wanted to see her tits?

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13409

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

The major urban counties hitting turnout marks for a presidential election is very, very bad for the GOP in a midterm election.  Just catastrophically bad.  There's no other way to view it.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting as well.  It's like Game 2 of an MLB season--attendance is always minuscule.  The enthusiasm of Opening Day has worn off.  That's the day for the real fans and for the fans who like to go when attendance is light.  How many of those are there this year?

Tomorrow is when we see whether Beto's GOTV effort can flex some muscle.

Great post.  I imagine there will be a drop on day 2 or 3 but curious to see how much.   

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted

Interesting analysis came from Chuck Todd this weekend on MTP.  Most everything is better in life than watching Chuck Todd, but he dropped some revealing math on the late breaking fence-sitters who favor asteroid impact:

“You know, Peggy, I want to point out one other thing. One of the missing pieces of analysis in 2016 that we didn't surface in time, that I think would've helped us understand the election better, which was where people were leaning that didn't like both Clinton and Trump. And he won those voters two to one. Well, I wanted to put this graphic up. These are people that don't like either political party right now. In September, the split between, who did they want to be in control of Congress, among people that were negative of both parties, was advantage Democrats, but narrowly, 43/38. Look at this number here in October. Among those that are negative on both, it is suddenly an open break here, towards the Democrats, 59/17. That's what we saw with Donald Trump, Peggy. It was narrow in September. October came, and the ones that were negative on both broke heavily towards Donald Trump. What does that tell you?"

- Chuck Todd, MTP 10/21/18

 

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20183

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ERhine said:

I don’t have a clue what that tells me.

 

7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Interesting analysis came from Chuck Todd this weekend on MTP.  Most everything is better in life than watching Chuck Todd, but he dropped some revealing math on the late breaking fence-sitters who favor asteroid impact:

“You know, Peggy, I want to point out one other thing. One of the missing pieces of analysis in 2016 that we didn't surface in time, that I think would've helped us understand the election better, which was where people were leaning that didn't like both Clinton and Trump. And he won those voters two to one. Well, I wanted to put this graphic up. These are people that don't like either political party right now. In September, the split between, who did they want to be in control of Congress, among people that were negative of both parties, was advantage Democrats, but narrowly, 43/38. Look at this number here in October. Among those that are negative on both, it is suddenly an open break here, towards the Democrats, 59/17. That's what we saw with Donald Trump, Peggy. It was narrow in September. October came, and the ones that were negative on both broke heavily towards Donald Trump. What does that tell you?"

- Chuck Todd, MTP 10/21/18

 

tumblr_n1ivf63HFL1t17f6qo1_400.gif

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ummm hold on. 59/17....carry the one....x10....

Bigly red wave. Republicans win 400 house seats and 65 Senate seats. Duh. 

If I had to guess, it's three options, not two: R, D, or Asteroid.  Some asteroid supporters standing firm, hence your confusion.

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