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2018 - Elections and Trends

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,628

Posted
Posted

https://www.dentonrc.com/news/denton-county-busts-totals-for-first-day-of-early-voting/article_96516b1e-34ac-5b51-8147-759d766566d7.html

Elections Administrator Frank Phillips said the county surpassed in-person totals from the entire first day of early voting in the 2014 midterms by 10 a.m. Monday. By the close of business, 17,278 people had cast a ballot out of the county’s 504,567 registered voters.

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

triplehorn

triplehorn 2,664

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mole said:

That's borderline unintelligible. So is he saying the astroid voters are breaking hard left this time?

Correct.  The percentage of negative fence sitters who might otherwise sit this one out appears to be shrinking abruptly, breaking significantly D right now.  In 2016, they broke late the other way for trump 2:1.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15,231

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Posted
5 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

The major urban counties hitting turnout marks for a presidential election is very, very bad for the GOP in a midterm election.  Just catastrophically bad.  There's no other way to view it.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting as well.  It's like Game 2 of an MLB season--attendance is always minuscule.  The enthusiasm of Opening Day has worn off.  That's the day for the real fans and for the fans who like to go when attendance is light.  How many of those are there this year?

Tomorrow is when we see whether Beto's GOTV effort can flex some muscle.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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Posted

It’s no secret that Americans like divided government. One party rule feels like a dictatorship and I can’t imagine anyone liked the nature in how both the shity Republican “health care plan” if you want to call it that and the tax cut scam were developed. 10 crusty old white dudes in a back room wrote both bills and thrust them into people’s hands and said “vote for it, take it or leave it”. 

I wish the Dems would remind people of that, but at least they’re hammering the repubs on their epic failure to write a good healthcare bill and they couldn’t even pass the piece of shit they came up with.

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,742

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s no secret that Americans like divided government. One party rule feels like a dictatorship and I can’t imagine anyone liked the nature in how both the shity Republican “health care plan” if you want to call it that and the tax cut scam were developed. 10 crusty old white dudes in a back room wrote both bills and thrust them into people’s hands and said “vote for it, take it or leave it”. 

I wish the Dems would remind people of that, but at least they’re hammering the repubs on their epic failure to write a good healthcare bill and they couldn’t even pass the piece of shit they came up with.

 

Agree with you 100% on needing a divided govt.

But its a fine line for dems to use that messaging.  The gop has done such a good job of demonizing pelosi and Schumer that the dems have to be carefully about having voters think that either of them will have power.

on a related note, I caught some local programming yesterday in Houston.  How much money is in the culberson/fletcher race?  In one hour of local news, there had to have been 10 commercials between them.   At point, culberson had 2 back to back (one exclusively about pelosi) and the fletcher immediately had a response ad.  It was as if they were filming them live.    This race is so competitive that The NY Times is running another live poll on it right now: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tx07-3.html

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troph

troph 25,247

Posted
Posted

Divided government is great when not much is needed but at some point we will need real tax reform to balance tax efficiency with revenue needs, we do need a modernization of civil rights laws because if we don’t want “liburl activist judges” we need to realize sex and gender along the lines of LGBTQ folk is a legit open question under current laws re “sex and gender” discrim (clarification either way is needed from Congress), we need comprehensive immigration reform, and we need to solve our health care problem honestly and looking at the countries that have done it well across metrics that matter - outcomes, wellness, happiness, costs - all of those countries have single payor systems.

 

That work isn’t going to be done with republicans compromising, their donors and their base have said “no compromise” so it’s clear gridlock only stops their agenda, it does nothing to repair and does nothing to advance our nation.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90,670

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Posted
16 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

You will see plenty of articles coming out spinning this as no big deal that early voting doesn’t always really predict election results and blah blah blah but this is really bad news for republicans and they know it. There’s a reason why the orange cheetoh god is here so ted can humiliate himself and kiss his ring, and its not because lyin’ Ted has got it in the bag. 

The bigger picture is that the republicans cannot ever afford to lose Texas. Because if they do, they will never elect another President again. They are worried. 

It’s not just Cheeto. He had at least one son there, along with Cornyn, Ricky Perry, Sean Hannity, and others.  None of those folks wanted to be there. 

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5,503

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Yep, all those Central Americans are bursting at the seams to spend winters in Minnesota instead of staying in Texas/Arizona/NM/California once they get to the U.S.

Clearly, they're coming here to vote illegally and throw the House to the dems, thus invalidating the election, at least in California.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted

Wonder why someone did this?

Quote

The explosive device found in a mailbox at the home of George Soros, the billionaire philanthropist, on Monday afternoon was relatively small, a senior law enforcement official said on Tuesday.

The device was “proactively denotated” by bomb squad technicians from the Westchester County Police Department.

The bomber’s motive remained unclear. Mr. Soros is a favorite target of right-wing groups. He was not home at the time.

The investigation has been taken over by the New York offices of the F.B.I. and the federal Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms, said the senior law enforcement official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the investigation is open.

Federal and state law enforcement officials responded to the scene in Katonah, N.Y., a hamlet in the upscale town of Bedford in northern Westchester County, after the Bedford Police Department received a call about a suspicious package at about 3:45 p.m.

“An employee of the residence opened the package, revealing what appeared to be an explosive device,” the police said in a statement. “The employee placed the package in a wooded area and called the Bedford police.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/nyregion/george-soros-explosive-device.html#click=https://t.co/0LE3Bx1Xun

Oh.

 

 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9,991

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Longhorn94 said:

Most of thosr are absentee votes.

Este.

Doesn't tell you much, out side of absentee requests, without knowing what the status of early in person voting.  Has the state opened the polls?  How many locations? etc.  For example:  Florida, the required sites don't open until Friday or Saturday.

 

Also, lots of those totals include substantial unaffliated early voting.

Edited by Bateshorn
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Js1

Js1 87,281

Posted
Posted

Gotta be Debbie Downer because I got excited by EV totals in 2016 and then Republicans showed out on Election Day and wiped out any advantages

Quote

Sigh. I guess everyone is going to overreact to early-voting numbers again. Here are all the ways that can go wrong:

  1. We don't actually know how early voters voted; we just know what party they're registered with, and there's no guarantee that they voted for that party's candidate, especially in states where voter reg is weird like Ohio.
  2. We don't know how independent early voters are voting. A 40–30% Democratic EV lead is meaningless if all the independents vote for Republicans.
  3. We don't know if Democratic enthusiasm in the 1st week of early voting is part of an overall rise in Democratic interest that will continue through the end of EV, or if they are just people who would've voted anyway voting early because they're so pumped.
  4. The types of people who vote early vs. will vote on Election Day are inherently demographically different, so they might vote totally differently too. And in many (though not all) states, the Election Day vote will outnumber the early vote.
  5. Polls account for early voters anyway, so it's double-counting to mentally "add" Democrats' early-vote advantage onto their advantage in polls.

As I've said, #3 is the idea that Democrats are just showing up early this year instead, so it's not "more" votes, just earlier votes.

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horn4life

horn4life 3,838

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I remember a few years ago on Shaggy I stated that basically the GOP's only choice" is a continual misrepresentation of fact and outright lies."   It's been on so long now that the GOP actually as a group embraces the lies as fact.

I was trying to talk facts with a Trump supporter the other day.  They guy simply didn't know any facts.  Then he explained to me well how can we really be sure of anything?  In essence his ingnorance of the facts, is now justification for dismissal of any fact?  So how do you discuss anything of substance with a person, or group, who wantonly believe outright lies as truth and dismisses truth as  'how can we know what's true?"

Hard to argue or even discuss something with somebody that simply doesn't have a factual grasp of the subject being discussed.  The embrace of the GOP of the lies of "death panels" worked.  The GOP embrace of the lie that Obama was either a muslim or not a citizen worked. The GOP current lies of The GOP protecting pre-existing conditions is working on the uninformed base.  In essence lies hve worked for the GOP.  Of course hilariously you also hear from this same group murmers about values, fiscals conservatism, balanced budgets and an actual GOP healthcare plan.  ALL LIES.

I guess the only question now is how fucked up wil the economy be when again the GOP runs massive deficits during times of plenty, by giving massive tax custs to millionaires and corporations..  Exactly like they did when President Bush was in office.  I just hope this time the GOP doesn't fuck the economy up so much the next Dem can't again clean up the fiscal mess. Our deficit is up 17% this year in a BOOMING economy.  That is indeed the definition of fiscal irresponsibility.  

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46,200

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Posted
3 minutes ago, horn4life said:

I remember a few years ago on Shaggy I stated that basically the GOP's only choice" is a continual misrepresentation of fact and outright lies."   It's been on so long now that the GOP actually as a group embraces the lies as fact.

I was trying to talk facts with a Trump supporter the other day.  They guy simply didn't know any facts.  Then he explained to me well how can we really be sure of anything?  In essence his ingnorance of the facts, is now justification for dismissal of any fact?  So how do you discuss anything of substance with a person, or group, who wantonly believe outright lies as truth and dismisses truth as  'how can we know what's true?"

Hard to argue or even discuss something with somebody that simply doesn't have a factual grasp of the subject being discussed.  The embrace of the GOP of the lies of "death panels" worked.  The GOP embrace of the lie that Obama was either a muslim or not a citizen worked. The GOP current lies of The GOP protecting pre-existing conditions is working on the uninformed base.  In essence lies hve worked for the GOP.  Of course hilariously you also hear from this same group murmers about values, fiscals conservatism, balanced budgets and an actual GOP healthcare plan.  ALL LIES.

I guess the only question now is how fucked up wil the economy be when again the GOP runs massive deficits during times of plenty, by giving massive tax custs to millionaires and corporations..  Exactly like they did when President Bush was in office.  I just hope this time the GOP doesn't fuck the economy up so much the next Dem can't again clean up the fiscal mess. Our deficit is up 17% this year in a BOOMING economy.  That is indeed the definition of fiscal irresponsibility.  

Well you certainly make some good points, but...

a0133af6df8488abcb3bd3f0c2efd08e.jpg

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,566

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Posted

To steal a bit from George Carlin, half of the nation is dumber than the average American.

That cannot be changed. What CAN be changed, however, are the tactics the parties use to appeal to that bottom half. The Republicans use lies and fear. The Democrats were successful when using hope and change (with a big candidate that actually looked like hope and change).

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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Posted

Is it just me or does it seem like the repubs are getting desperate?

lately I’ve heard several huge lies that anyone with a brain wouldn’t believe :

- As republicans, we will protect pre-existing conditions! ( refer to Obamacare repeal for the truth. Actions speak louder than words)

- if democrats win the election this year. The economy will tank.

- If Democrat’s win the house, Maxine Waters will be in charge of your 401K and it will go down faster than you thought possible.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23,095

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, horn4life said:

I remember a few years ago on Shaggy I stated that basically the GOP's only choice" is a continual misrepresentation of fact and outright lies."   It's been on so long now that the GOP actually as a group embraces the lies as fact.

I was trying to talk facts with a Trump supporter the other day.  They guy simply didn't know any facts.  Then he explained to me well how can we really be sure of anything?  In essence his ingnorance of the facts, is now justification for dismissal of any fact?  So how do you discuss anything of substance with a person, or group, who wantonly believe outright lies as truth and dismisses truth as  'how can we know what's true?"

Hard to argue or even discuss something with somebody that simply doesn't have a factual grasp of the subject being discussed.  The embrace of the GOP of the lies of "death panels" worked.  The GOP embrace of the lie that Obama was either a muslim or not a citizen worked. The GOP current lies of The GOP protecting pre-existing conditions is working on the uninformed base.  In essence lies hve worked for the GOP.  Of course hilariously you also hear from this same group murmers about values, fiscals conservatism, balanced budgets and an actual GOP healthcare plan.  ALL LIES.

I guess the only question now is how fucked up wil the economy be when again the GOP runs massive deficits during times of plenty, by giving massive tax custs to millionaires and corporations..  Exactly like they did when President Bush was in office.  I just hope this time the GOP doesn't fuck the economy up so much the next Dem can't again clean up the fiscal mess. Our deficit is up 17% this year in a BOOMING economy.  That is indeed the definition of fiscal irresponsibility.  

Honestly, this is why so many are having such an intense reaction to this Presidency.  The right likes to call it "Trump Derangement Syndrome" or whatever, but it is truly terrifying to many of us to watch tens of millions of people simultaneously decide that facts no longer exist.  This isn't a simple "he's on the other team, so we don't like him," this is truly something that seems dangerous to the future of our country and will be next to impossible to undo.  How can we every hope to eventually unify when we can't even agree on the most basic facts?  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,566

Posted
Posted (edited)

Facts didn't suddenly stop mattering to Republicans. Facts have been inconvenient things for years.

Colin-Powell_ONU_2003.jpg

There's a reason Trump ran as a Republican and not a Democrat. And it's not because he's a William F. Buckley conservative. The party of lies and hate made itself clear and he saw the grift.

Edited by bad_teammate
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Celery Man

Celery Man 21,103

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Is it just me or does it seem like the repubs are getting desperate?

lately I’ve heard several huge lies that anyone with a brain wouldn’t believe :

- As republicans, we will protect pre-existing conditions! ( refer to Obamacare repeal for the truth. Actions speak louder than words)

- if democrats win the election this year. The economy will tank.

- If Democrat’s win the house, Maxine Waters will be in charge of your 401K and it will go down faster than you thought possible.

 

priming the pump for blaming democrats for the economic downturn is one of the smartest things they're doing.  can still blame the democrats if they don't win power, and if they do win democrats will never be able to explain that the inevitable downturn has nothing to do with them in a soundbite that is dumb enough for the adequately represented portions of our country to understand

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29,600

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Posted
Just now, Celery Man said:

 

priming the pump for blaming democrats for the economic downturn is one of the smartest things they're doing.  can still blame the democrats if they don't win power, and if they do win democrats will never be able to explain that the inevitable downturn has nothing to do with them in a soundbite that is dumb enough for the adequately represented portions of our country to understand

Same thing they did under Bush. They destroyed the global economy and then blamed it all on the new black guy who'd been in office for five minutes.

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Js1

Js1 87,281

Posted
Posted (edited)

I don't think the toss-ups will split evenly.  I'd say 60-65% will tilt to one side.  Also, at least 3-4 of the "lean R" seats will somehow flip because that's what happens in a wave year.  And maybe 1 Likely seat.  There's always fun surprises where you go "THAT person lost? HOW??"

Edited by Js1
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bolverk

bolverk 30,366

Posted
Posted

Party of lies, indeed. Going back to the 90s, my elderly grandmother who lived alone on a farm was pissing away all her social security checks as donations to Phil fucking Gramm because he kept sending her scary letters about Bill Clinton personally targeting her to...wait for it...take away her social security. 

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Js1

Js1 87,281

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

poll overwhelmingly indicates (in unsolicited write-in responses) that adult children don't call home frequently enough

Well shit, no wonder this poll was so close, they polled my mom in Spring, Texas then.

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