2018 - Elections and Trends

[triplehorn 2664]

 Kava-nopers representing.

[Bateshorn 9991]

42 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Party of lies, indeed. Going back to the 90s, my elderly grandmother who lived alone on a farm was pissing away all her social security checks as donations to Phil fucking Gramm because he kept sending her scary letters about Bill Clinton personally targeting her to...wait for it...take away her social security. 

When I worked on the Hill, I used to get mail by the hundreds from a group peddling a legislative fix to the Social Securty Notch.  It’s a made up issue, but the group doing the organizing was scamming olds for yearly dues.

[Pancho 46370]

 

[GSU&UT 1799]

For all the people jerking it that Republicans are outpacing Dems in Texas, here is a professor who specializes in elections.
 

 

We're seeing a very similar trend here in Georgia (and nationwide). Yesterday was the first day of our second week of in person EV and turnout was even higher than it was the first week, I thought if we saw this supposed early surge then yesterday it would have dropped off somewhat. Because our voter registration is publicly available you can do racial and age demographic analysis in comparison to 2014. After yesterday (and after most of the days last week iirc) the percentage of white voters dropped slightly and the percentage of olds dropped slightly as well. There's no way to interpret this data as favorable to Republicans. Both sides may have higher turnout for a mid-term, but even that is really bad for Republicans who always do well in mid-terms when there's lower turnout.

[Js1 87281]

Quote

Republicans are outpacing Dems in Texas

Is there even a way to quantify this?  We don't have party registration in Texas. 

[ERhine 1939]

Republicans are outpacing Dems in Texas

Is there even a way to quantify this?  We don't have party registration in Texas. 


I’d guess he’s basing it on the NBC analysis. This is the creator of the data used by NBC:
https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1054530925323845633

[GSU&UT 1799]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Is there even a way to quantify this?  We don't have party registration in Texas. 

Are there open primaries? Just compare voter registration data between the primary voters and the mid-term voters.

[Js1 87281]

Yeah I saw Tom's tweet in response to NBC using their data pretty erroneously. Half those states don't have party registration requirements so the data can't be quantified. 

[GSU&UT 1799]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah I saw Tom's tweet in response to NBC using their data pretty erroneously. Half those states don't have party registration requirements so the data can't be quantified. 

They can, it just may not be as accurate. You can only vote in one primary right? Republican or Democrat. Nate Cohn did that sort of analysis during the GA-06 special election, we have open primaries here and no party registration. He looked at voter data from those who had voted in past primaries and extrapolated that to voter turnout in the election and then the runoff. I say it's not as accurate because you may intentionally vote in a party's primary that you don't support because you want to influence that election.

Edited October 23, 2018 by GSU&UT

[Pescado_Rojo 19593]

I voted in the R primary in Texas just so I could vote against all the incumbent Rs. Like Cruz, Paxton, and Patrick

[Bateshorn 9991]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah I saw Tom's tweet in response to NBC using their data pretty erroneously. Half those states don't have party registration requirements so the data can't be quantified. 

Also, the bit compares the states as if they are equal and engaged under similar early voting rules. 

Spoiler:  Their not. 

For Example, Tennessee only has early voting on Saturdays, for a couple of weeks before the election.  It's a vote in person on election day state, for all intents and purposes.  Nevada, OTOH, is a robust early voting state with enormous transparency.  You just can't compare them at any level.

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2692]

SIAP. This article makes a number of quite salient points. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/the-hack-gap-how-and-why-conservative-nonsense-dominates-american-politics/ar-BBOMJjY

 

Spoiler

But here’s the critical thing: Even though plenty of liberals are happy to be mad about the double standard, nobody important in progressive political commentary is actually mad about Trump’s troop visiting schedule. We’re mad that Trump is destroying financial and environmental regulation while trying to screw poor people out of health care and nutrition assistance, all while imprisoning children seeking asylum and undermining the international order. That’s important stuff, while Trump’s golfing — like Clinton’s emails — fundamentally isn’t.

And yet elections are swung, almost by definition, not by the majority of people who correctly see the scope of the differences and pick a side but by the minority of people for whom the important divisions in US partisan politics aren’t decisive. Consequently, the issues that matter most electorally are the ones that matter least to partisans. Things like email protocol compliance that neither liberals nor conservatives care about even slightly can be a powerful electoral tool because the decisive voters are the ones who don’t care about the epic ideological clash of left and right.

But journalists take their cues about what’s important from partisan media outlets and partisan social media.

Thus, the frenzies of partisan attention around “deplorables” and “lock her up” served to focus on controversies that, while not objectively significant. are perhaps particularly resonant to people who don’t have firm ideological convictions.

Meanwhile, similar policy-neutral issues like Trump’s insecure cellphone, his preposterous claim to be too busy to visit the troops, or even his apparent track record of tax fraud don’t get progressives worked into a lather in the same way.

This is a natural tactical advantage that, moreover, serves a particular strategic advantage given the Republican Party’s devotion to plutocratic principles on taxation and health insurance that have only a very meager constituency among the mass public.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13742]

the NBC analysis is interesting in that they believe that early voting is great for the Republicans and not Democrats but there isn't much in proving that theory other than just saying that they know what they're talking about.    The general consensus is that Dems are catching up to Republicans in early voting efforts but it doesn't mean that is the case everywhere.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3874]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

the NBC analysis is interesting in that they believe that early voting is great for the Republicans and not Democrats but there isn't much in proving that theory other than just saying that they know what they're talking about.    The general consensus is that Dems are catching up to Republicans in early voting efforts but it doesn't mean that is the case everywhere.

I think that is true, but it is just my read of the room.  It "feels" like Ds want to get out and vote this time, so saying early voting favors R doesn't really make sense.  However, I do agree with whoever said before that Rs believe the current election is existential.  They're voting now by the millions too.  I think a very good psychologist would look inside the average R brain and see "I voted for hatred in 2016.  Everyone is upset now at hatred.  With the pendulum swing I'll be the punching bag that I made browns/blacks/Mexicans/Muslims if I don't vote."

[Chuckie Finster 23095]

3 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I think that is true, but it is just my read of the room.  It "feels" like Ds want to get out and vote this time, so saying early voting favors R doesn't really make sense.  However, I do agree with whoever said before that Rs believe the current election is existential.  They're voting now by the millions too.  I think a very good psychologist would look inside the average R brain and see "I voted for hatred in 2016.  Everyone is upset now at hatred.  With the pendulum swing I'll be the punching bag that I made browns/blacks/Mexicans/Muslims if I don't vote."

There is no way that the average R brain would know how to spell "pendulum."

[Brisketexan 107009]

There is no way that the average R brain would know how to spell "pendulum."

No, but they know how to be scared. It’s really all they know. Well, that, and the fact that they know they’ve pissed a lotta people off.

Solid reptilian brain shit.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20950]

[AngryDragon 273]

Mostly I'm realizing that the pollsters really do not know anything under today's political climate.

[Mole 4344]

57 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Are there open primaries? Just compare voter registration data between the primary voters and the mid-term voters.

Day 1 Abrams early voter here in the heart of Kemp country. I voted in the R primary and runoff to vote against Trumpism. I voted in the general against Trumpism as well. I don’t know how many there are like me but I bet we aren’t insignificant.

 

I overheard some college students talking about the election. The young black female said she was voting for Kemp because of all the signs. The white child of a cop said she was voting for Abrams and encouraged her friend to look beyond all the signs. I just made sure they knew what the early voting hours were. It was a wonderful moment where the white child of a cop saw Abrams’ background as aligned with the values she was raised with.

[Longhorn94 2502]

44 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

the NBC analysis is interesting in that they believe that early voting is great for the Republicans and not Democrats but there isn't much in proving that theory other than just saying that they know what they're talking about.    The general consensus is that Dems are catching up to Republicans in early voting efforts but it doesn't mean that is the case everywhere.

that report is based on absentee ballots, not early in-person voting.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

1 minute ago, Mole said:

Day 1 Abrams early voter here in the heart of Kemp country. I voted in the R primary and runoff to vote against Trumpism. I voted in the general against Trumpism as well. I don’t know how many there are like me but I bet we aren’t insignificant.

 

I overheard some college students talking about the election. The young black female said she was voting for Kemp because of all the signs. The white child of a cop said she was voting for Abrams and encouraged her friend to look beyond all the signs. I just made sure they knew what the early voting hours were. It was a wonderful moment where the white child of a cop saw Abrams’ background as aligned with the values she was raised with.

The signs?   Like, yard signs saying "Kemp" made her come out to vote for Kemp? 

[gmr548 16704]

Day 1 Abrams early voter here in the heart of Kemp country. I voted in the R primary and runoff to vote against Trumpism. I voted in the general against Trumpism as well. I don’t know how many there are like me but I bet we aren’t insignificant.

Username checks out.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

2 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

that report is based on absentee ballots, not early in-person voting.

so that's olds, fats, and sicks? also troops?

[Longhorn94 2502]

1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

so that's olds, fats, and sicks? also troops?

mainly olds in texas. 65+

[Js1 87281]

3 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

The signs?   Like, yard signs saying "Kemp" made her come out to vote for Kemp? 

"He's like, SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO popular. Look at all those signs!"

[cactusflinthead 27628]

1 hour ago, GSU&UT said:

They can, it just may not be as accurate. You can only vote in one primary right? Republican or Democrat. Nate Cohn did that sort of analysis during the GA-06 special election, we have open primaries here and no party registration. He looked at voter data from those who had voted in past primaries and extrapolated that to voter turnout in the election and then the runoff. I say it's not as accurate because you may intentionally vote in a party's primary that you don't support because you want to influence that election.

That is exactly what my sister did in Comanche. The county judge was either going to be a screaming lunatic bitch or a sensible human being. It locked her out the runoff in the Democratic but it was worth it because the primary was the defacto general election. 

[Biff Tannen 46200]

4 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

The signs?   Like, yard signs saying "Kemp" made her come out to vote for Kemp? 

If this is the case, my god.  Why is she even bothering to vote?  Just to pretend she did something important?

[GRHorn 105]

 

[Chuckie Finster 23095]

3 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

[Biff Tannen 46200]

Hey DSA is back!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13742]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

There is truth that the GOP is good with slogans that fit on bumper sticker or signs whereas Dems need a few paragraphs.   Take Beto, he should have been calling Cruz, One-Term Ted or Do Nothing Ted.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

There is truth that the GOP is good with slogans that fit on bumper sticker or signs whereas Dems need a few paragraphs.   Take Beto, he should have been calling Cruz, One-Term Ted or Do Nothing Ted.  

Titty Baby Ted. Take It To Iowa Ted.

[Mole 4344]

19 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

The signs?   Like, yard signs saying "Kemp" made her come out to vote for Kemp? 

Pretty much. There may have been other reasons that she couldn’t really articulate, but it was an issue of familiarity. She’s black though, so I almost told her not to worry about voting since Kemp probably already purged her from the voter rolls. I think that’s why her friend told her to look into it a little since her mind would probably be changed.

[tantric superman 4668]

18 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Titty Baby Ted. Take It To Iowa Ted.

Pinche Ted.

[Biff Tannen 46200]

In the video above, Beto literally said to look past the name-calling.

[CooterBrown 18289]

Waited in line for 50 minutes at the Shriner HQ on Rockwood. Got there at 3:15. Line was much, much longer when I left just now.

[G650 14450]

44 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

 

 

I can tell you, the 2016 election was a watershed moment for me. I spent decades wondering what terrible fucking people made Dilbert a popular cartoon. And then Scott Adam's comes out for Trump, and I'm like " well he is definitely a special snowflake". And then Trump wins and it all makes sense. I literally never had an inkling there were actually that many terrible people in America. It was like a flashbulb went off.

Edited October 23, 2018 by G650

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

In the video above, Beto literally said to look past the name-calling.

I already voted, so Fuck Lyin Ted

[GSU&UT 1799]

@Hank Scorpio Gonna need your opinion on this latest Scott Adams tweet.

[Stringer 1494]

I can't remember what thread someone posted them, but what's a good resource for background on all of the candidates and props in Travis County?  

Cruz, Goeb, Paxton, etc can get fucked, but want to do my homework on the down ballot options.

[Lurch 5951]

For my research I had to look at a lot of different sources. Ballotipedia is good in concept but poor in execution/content.

If you can, find their Facebook and see what they say when they’re not running for office. I found a few good tells on some

[Message Board User 12409]

 

[Brew 3050]

5 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Also, the bit compares the states as if they are equal and engaged under similar early voting rules. 

Spoiler:  Their not. 

For Example, Tennessee only has early voting on Saturdays, for a couple of weeks before the election.  It's a vote in person on election day state, for all intents and purposes.  Nevada, OTOH, is a robust early voting state with enormous transparency.  You just can't compare them at any level.

I don’t know about other districts, but the county I am in runs early voting 6 days a week from 10/17-11/1 in TN. Going tomorrow to vote for Bredesen. The numbers don’t look great lately.

[Brisketexan 107009]

 

Well, thankfully, the GOP candidates will purge a good 2-3% of the voters who would vote for their opponents, so...WHEW. Dodged THAT bullet!

[gmr548 16704]

3 hours ago, Stringer said:

I can't remember what thread someone posted them, but what's a good resource for background on all of the candidates and props in Travis County?  

Cruz, Goeb, Paxton, etc can get fucked, but want to do my homework on the down ballot options.

https://www.vote411.org/

Entering your address gets you a list of races that will be on your ballot and profiles for each candidate, filled out by the campaign. A candidate not taking 10 minutes to reply is a borderline deal breaker to me, but at least at that point you have their name, from which you can google to see their web page, who has endorsed them, what their records are, etc.

[cactusflinthead 27628]

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5bcf47a2e4b055bc9485320d

Voters in Florida received the robocall on Tuesday, and HuffPost obtained audio of the recording. Speaking in an exaggerated minstrel dialect, an actor pretends to be Gillum, saying: “Well hello there. I is the Negro Andrew Gillum, and I be asking you to make me governor of this here state of Florida.”

[G650 14450]

Whoa

 

[Biff Tannen 46200]

Yep, that was on CNN last night.  Fucking incredible.

[Mole 4344]

That’s over the top. I think the world makes more sense with the realization that there are people who have chaos and discord as their primary purpose instead of our normal partisan aims (R vs. D). That call isn’t “helping” either side gain votes; it’s trying to turn us more against each other. I’m surprised there aren’t claims of false flags yet just to top it off. This is Russian troll like stuff coming from our homegrown neo-Nazis who want a race war. Yay America.

Edited October 24, 2018 by Mole

[wildcat09 29600]

26 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5bcf47a2e4b055bc9485320d

Voters in Florida received the robocall on Tuesday, and HuffPost obtained audio of the recording. Speaking in an exaggerated minstrel dialect, an actor pretends to be Gillum, saying: “Well hello there. I is the Negro Andrew Gillum, and I be asking you to make me governor of this here state of Florida.”

I'm pretty sure that same call was going around a few months ago too.