Jump to content

2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90663

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Everything you say is exactly why it is bleak. The Dems got the majority of votes in 2016 and were slaughtered on the map. And they got that majority even with widespread disenfranchisement that is only getting worse.

Why are the Republicans being so blatant in this regard?  Why are the Republicans rushing to gut every regulation that they can?  They aren’t acting in a patient manner at all, and it’s not because the lobbyists who bought them off are pressuring them.  

The GOP is acting scared.  They are acting like this is their last chance to Get Things Done. Kemp is acting like a man who won’t get a second chance at winning the Governor’s seat if he loses this go-round.  

The Kavanaugh hearings showed how scared Republicans like Linda Graham are.   They are terrified of the Democrats, and they are demonizing them every chance they get, up to and including openly appealing to racists.   

And Trump is scared as well.   He is doing everything possible to keep his followers from watching anything but Fox News.   

Republicans are willing to jeopardize the future of the GOP to get things done now. They are making sure that many young voters will never support them, that more women and minorities get out and vote, etc.  

That is playing a short game driven by fear.  

Edited by atomheartbevo
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 6.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Why are the Republicans being so blatant in this regard?  Why are the Republicans rushing to gut every regulation that they can?  They aren’t acting in a patient manner at all, and it’s not because the lobbyists who bought them off are pressuring them.  

The GOP is acting scared.  They are acting like this is their last chance to Get Things Done. Kemp is acting like a man who won’t get a second chance at winning the Governor’s seat if he loses this go-round.  

The Kavanaugh hearings showed how scared Republicans like Linda Graham are.   They are terrified of the Democrats, and they are demonizing them every chance they eat, up to and including openly appealing to racists.  

And Trump is scared as well.   He is doing everything possible to keep his followers from watching anything but Fox News.   

The last gasps of a dying world. 

The rule of the white man patriarchy is coming to an end so fast they created an entire alternative reality to preserve it.

Don’t choke on your red pill Trumpkins.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
troph

troph 25238

Posted
Posted

As long as public opinion continues to shift left on social issues and the progressive movement continues to grow - which I believe it is - then we will be okay. I don’t want anyone to die per se but replacing racist and bigoted voters with younger ones fresh out of college will be great for our country. There will always be pockets of conservatism and the senate will likely be close for years to come but more states are going to reject red meat conservative positions and the house will continue to move more in the blue direction. The court will work itself out and if it doesn’t legislation will come about when the Dems have all three branches.

 

And what is the ultimate win is the GOP being forced to reinvent itself to win again in a decade or two - social policies will become more humane and we can get to having real policy conversations about tax and spend, size of government etc.

 

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
troph

troph 25238

Posted
Posted
Everything you say is exactly why it is bleak. The Dems got the majority of votes in 2016 and were slaughtered on the map. And they got that majority even with widespread disenfranchisement that is only getting worse. What is the margin that you believe breaks the republic?  If Trump loses the popular vote in 2020 by 10 million, even after getting registrations purged in key states, and still wins the electoral college? Still not enough?  It simply cant go on much longer with this map. Especially when nearly the entire national economy is sitting in Dem hands. We are at peak fuckery. If 2018 and 2020 are fucked, then Cali needs to start the exit. Cascadia and the Northeast will follow. Nobody is going to stop it.  Hell, Cali should open separate trade with China now and see what happens. 


I think the Dems will gerrymander back in states they win. Some will be struck down and the game will continue. At some point the lines won’t matter. Public opinion will move in ways the lines can protect against.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 87214

Posted
Posted
Just now, troph said:

 

 


I think the Dems will gerrymander back in states they win. Some will be struck down and the game will continue. At some point the lines won’t matter. Public opinion will move in ways the lines can protect against.

 

Except a lot of blue states have ended gerrymandering, put nonpartisan redistricting on the ballot, etc. 

And Pennsylvania gave everyone a game plan to defeat GOP maps - find a way to get them struck down under the state constitution and SCOTUS won't touch it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

Except a lot of blue states have ended gerrymandering, put nonpartisan redistricting on the ballot, etc. 

And Pennsylvania gave everyone a game plan to defeat GOP maps - find a way to get them struck down under the state constitution and SCOTUS won't touch it. 

Yep. Its hard to win when you are playing fair if the other team is cheating. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90663

Posted
  • Author
Posted
12 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Olson seems like a real piece of shit.  Hope Sri beats his ass.  

 

Someone calls him on his bullshit at around the 8 minute mark here. 

Once again, Trumpkins show they are the ultimate snowflakes who cannot handle even a mild criticism or disagreement. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sushihorn

sushihorn 3249

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, G650 said:

 

Every time I read something like this, I think how amazing it is how many people dont get it. The manufacturing is the worthless bit, the IP and financial control are the real wealth on this planet. Anyone who doesn't want all low skilled manufacturing either offshored or done by robots is fucked in the head 

US exports of goods are DOUBLE exports of services.  California is focusing on the virtual world while their real world crumbles around them.  The state is ranked 2nd worst in infrastructure (#49 out of 50) by the American Society of Civil Engineers in 2017.  This it embarrassing for a state that once had a model road system.  We've seen similar declines in the public schools of CA over the last 30-40 years.  California is a state that is consuming its accumulated capital and failing to replace it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34701

Posted
Posted
Just now, sushihorn said:

US exports of goods are DOUBLE exports of services.  California is focusing on the virtual world while their real world crumbles around them.  The state is ranked 2nd worst in infrastructure (#49 out of 50) by the American Society of Civil Engineers in 2017.  This it embarrassing for a state that once had a model road system.  We've seen similar declines in the public schools of CA over the last 30-40 years.  California is a state that is consuming its accumulated capital and failing to replace it.

US export ratio seems fairly irrelevant. IF California were no longer a part of the United States then their exports would be pretty heavily concentrated toward the remaining part of the United States, of course. And that would be a heavy, heavy dose of IP and services. Interstate sales from California become international exports in that scenario so acting like the current US export ratio would apply to the remaining United States' consumption of California exports is pretty questionable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
happyfunball

happyfunball 481

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

US exports of goods are DOUBLE exports of services.  California is focusing on the virtual world while their real world crumbles around them.  The state is ranked 2nd worst in infrastructure (#49 out of 50) by the American Society of Civil Engineers in 2017.  This it embarrassing for a state that once had a model road system.  We've seen similar declines in the public schools of CA over the last 30-40 years.  California is a state that is consuming its accumulated capital and failing to replace it.

 

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

US export ratio seems fairly irrelevant. IF California were no longer a part of the United States then their exports would be pretty heavily concentrated toward the remaining part of the United States, of course. And that would be a heavy, heavy dose of IP and services. Interstate sales from California become international exports in that scenario so acting like the current US export ratio would apply to the remaining United States' consumption of California exports is pretty questionable.

Private capital isn't the same as public capital. This appears rambling and unrelated. US including State infrastructure abyssal condition is a direct result of Republican policy not to fund and maintain public infrastructure. Don't give me state examples because a large majority of infrastructure capital comes from the Federal government. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23092

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

He sounds like Lee Corso after his stroke.

Olson's my congressman.  I've never heard him speak before, but his picture is normal looking and he while he does SOME dumb Republican stuff, he's not Gaetz or Gohmert or Nunes so I haven't thought much about him.  He's pretty inconsequential.

That video though.  Wow.  What an unimpressive human.  

Edited by Chuckie Finster
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18337

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Olson's my congressman.  I've never heard him speak before, but his picture is normal looking and he while he does SOME dumb Republican stuff, he's not Gaetz or Gohmert or Nunes so I haven't thought much about him.  He's pretty inconsequential.

That video though.  Wow.  What an unimpressive human.  

Doesn't he sound exactly like Michael from the office, but with about half the intelligence? I swear to god, it seemed like he was struggling to not shit himself (literally) that entire time.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Horn Dog

Horn Dog 10158

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Mia Love sounds like somebody I'd watch on youporn while jacking off.  

13 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

In Virginia’s 5th District, the main House GOP super PAC went up on television for the first time last week. The Congressional Leadership Fund ad sought to help distillery owner Denver Riggleman (R) against journalist Leslie Cockburn (D) 

So do you have to have a porn name to run these days?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18337

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

US exports of goods are DOUBLE exports of services.  California is focusing on the virtual world while their real world crumbles around them.  The state is ranked 2nd worst in infrastructure (#49 out of 50) by the American Society of Civil Engineers in 2017.  This it embarrassing for a state that once had a model road system.  We've seen similar declines in the public schools of CA over the last 30-40 years.  California is a state that is consuming its accumulated capital and failing to replace it.

Is there any reason to think that measurement of exports is actually indicative of overall economic health or of "real wealth"? I mean, are Ford stock holders some how less wealthy if Ford builds a plant in Australia rather than exporting from a domestic? Are Walmart or its employees worth less if it does the majority of its business domestically? Do you really think that Apple isn't generating "real wealth" because its manufacturing facilities are largely located in China and Taiwan? 

And of course Texas exports a lot of stuff. It has a productive (oil and gas) that is bound to its physical boundaries. You can't build a plant in India to sell Texas oil there. The only choice is to export it from Texas. The difference isn't that the CA have fake wealth and the Texas companies have real wealth. The difference is the type of product being sold. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

US exports of goods are DOUBLE exports of services.  California is focusing on the virtual world while their real world crumbles around them.  The state is ranked 2nd worst in infrastructure (#49 out of 50) by the American Society of Civil Engineers in 2017.  This it embarrassing for a state that once had a model road system.  We've seen similar declines in the public schools of CA over the last 30-40 years.  California is a state that is consuming its accumulated capital and failing to replace it.

An iPhone sold in Europe never touches US soil and is not an export. The iOS on the device is also not considered exported IP or service. The designers of the device and the developers of the software on it make a fortune on that sale and others like it. 

Google and Facebook profit from selling advertising in foreign countries. I dont believe that is considered an exported service either. Perhaps it is though.

You want to be the HQ siphoning profit and not the schmuck making goods he can't afford to buy himself. 

And CA would be able to fix their infrastructure with change left if they werent paying for federal highways in MS and TN.

Edited by FondrenRoad
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19591

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Doesn't he sound exactly like Michael from the office, but with about half the intelligence? I swear to god, it seemed like he was struggling to not shit himself (literally) that entire time.

Never judge a man until you've walked a mile in his (shit soaked) shoes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gil Bang

Gil Bang 26247

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

US exports of goods are DOUBLE exports of services.  California is focusing on the virtual world while their real world crumbles around them.  The state is ranked 2nd worst in infrastructure (#49 out of 50) by the American Society of Civil Engineers in 2017.  This it embarrassing for a state that once had a model road system.  We've seen similar declines in the public schools of CA over the last 30-40 years.  California is a state that is consuming its accumulated capital and failing to replace it.

The bold part is where you went full retard.

US News and World Report Top Public Universities

1) UCLA

2) UC Berkeley

5) UCSB

7) UC Irvine

10) UC Davis

12) UCSD

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
G650

G650 14447

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

The bold part is where you went full retard.

US News and World Report Top Public Universities

1) UCLA

2) UC Berkeley

5) UCSB

7) UC Irvine

10) UC Davis

12) UCSD

Pretty sure he was talking about elementary through high school.

 

Also, UCSB is god's school, fuck those other imposters. Go Gauchos.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13740

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Meanwhile, back on topic

 

 

If true, these are pretty incredible numbers if the olds have actually decreased (at least in turnout %) from 2014.  I look forward to reading his report and I hope he explains how he knows this info.   To my knowledge, counties are not distributing this info.  I don't even know if they are supposed to calculate it for themselves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34701

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If true, these are pretty incredible numbers if the olds have actually decreased (at least in turnout %) from 2014.  I look forward to reading his report and I hope he explains how he knows this info.   To my knowledge, counties are not distributing this info.  I don't even know if they are supposed to calculate it for themselves.

He's not saying older voters have decreased. That's a 96% increase. So if at this point in 2014 10,000 voters 65+ had voted then this year so far 19,600 have voted.

But if at this point in 2014 there had been 10,000 voters under 30 then this year so far there have been 60,800.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873

Posted
Posted

I finally found some decent numbers break down by age in early voting, but not Texas.  

 

2014 Early Voting

Georgia (939,000 early votes)

http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/order_voter_registration_lists_and_files

Age

18-29 4.2%

30-44 14.4%

30-44 14.4%

45-60 30.9%

60+ 44.5%

 

North Carolina (1,163,000 early votes)

North Carolina

ftp://alt.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/

 

Age 

18-29 5.1%

30-44 13.7%

45-60 29.1%

60+ 52.2%

 

 

Using the ratios above, if Texas olds increased by 96% and young people under 30 by 508% (per the Tom Bonier tweet), you get:

North Carolina Model:  3.3x as many old people voting over young people, as compared to 10.2x in 2014.

Georgia model:  3.4x as many old people as young people as compared to 10.6x in 2014.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 692

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Is this guy on anti-seizure meds or a stroke survivor? I've never heard him speak before. Why does he talk like that?

Olson came to talk at my company back in 2016 and yes, that's how he talks. He gave some mildly chauvinistic anecdote from his time in the Navy about some poor Australian cadet making a fool of himself in front of an American female sailor. Pretty harmless stuff. He made fun of Trump and told everyone to vote, "even if it's for the Democrat".

Fast forward two years and he has singed a ridiculous petition to award the Orangutan the Nobel Peace Prize and is now ranting like a goddamned lunatic. Sri clearly has him rattled. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1799

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, happyfunball said:

 

Private capital isn't the same as public capital. This appears rambling and unrelated. US including State infrastructure abyssal condition is a direct result of Republican policy not to fund and maintain public infrastructure. Don't give me state examples because a large majority of infrastructure capital comes from the Federal government. 

Fucking this

"Government is awful and inefficient." - says old white voter who votes for the party that actively tries to dismantle and weaken it.

Edited by GSU&UT
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Is this guy on anti-seizure meds or a stroke survivor? I've never heard him speak before. Why does he talk like that?

He does act in the way that is consistent with being a stroke victim, but I'm not aware of him being one.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted

 

Quote

State Republican Chairman J.R. Romano dismissed the criticism Tuesday and said it was coming from only Democrats.

“When I look at that I don’t see Jewish,” Romano said. “That’s all this is, pointing out the fact that Matt Lesser is a tax-and-spend Democrat. If you criticize any Democrat for failures and their record, they run into this shield that you’re a racist. The Democrats have false outrage all the time.”

When told that Jewish community members raised objections to the mailer, Romano said, “Did you look to see their political affiliation?”

lmao.  Maybe you're the antisemite for assuming that the mailer was antisemitic?? huh??

 

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-anti-semitic-mailer-20181030-story.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1799

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I finally found some decent numbers break down by age in early voting, but not Texas.  

 

2014 Early Voting

Georgia (939,000 early votes)

http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/order_voter_registration_lists_and_files

Age

18-29 4.2%

30-44 14.4%

30-44 14.4%

45-60 30.9%

60+ 44.5%

 

North Carolina (1,163,000 early votes)

North Carolina

ftp://alt.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/

 

Age 

18-29 5.1%

30-44 13.7%

45-60 29.1%

60+ 52.2%

 

 

Using the ratios above, if Texas olds increased by 96% and young people under 30 by 508% (per the Tom Bonier tweet), you get:

North Carolina Model:  3.3x as many old people voting over young people, as compared to 10.2x in 2014.

Georgia model:  3.4x as many old people as young people as compared to 10.6x in 2014.

 

Here's my man Ryan breaking down the trend changes in Georgia right now, which I'm assuming we're seeing everywhere. Still holding (and INCREASING) the percentage of non-2014 voters (it's now at 33.6%, it was around 30% last week).

 

Right now, with the last week of (generally the heaviest) EV we're at,

18-29: 7.5%

30-39:  8.9%

40-49: 14.0%

50-64: 32.4%

65+: 34.7%

Unk: 2.4%

 

After yesterday, we're sitting at almost 400k more votes cast than in all of 2014's EV. If the 33% non-2014 voter margin continues to hold after election day that will equate to an increase from about 2.6 million votes in 2014 to 3.9 million votes in 2018.

Sorry to keep spamming this thread with Georgia numbers since only a couple of us live here, but it's awesome to at least see younger people more engaged this mid-term. I assume we will smash the modern record for turnout across the country.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...