2018 - Elections and Trends

[Voldemort86 2,259]

19 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Here's my man Ryan breaking down the trend changes in Georgia right now, which I'm assuming we're seeing everywhere. Still holding (and INCREASING) the percentage of non-2014 voters (it's now at 33.6%, it was around 30% last week).

 

Right now, with the last week of (generally the heaviest) EV we're at,

18-29: 7.5%

30-39:  8.9%

40-49: 14.0%

50-64: 32.4%

65+: 34.7%

Unk: 2.4%

 

After yesterday, we're sitting at almost 400k more votes cast than in all of 2014's EV. If the 33% non-2014 voter margin continues to hold after election day that will equate to an increase from about 2.6 million votes in 2014 to 3.9 million votes in 2018.

Sorry to keep spamming this thread with Georgia numbers since only a couple of us live here, but it's awesome to at least see younger people more engaged this mid-term. I assume we will smash the modern record for turnout across the country.

I enjoy it. I think both the Georgia and Florida Governor races are fascinating. I’m really hoping we win at least one. Please keep updating.

[Js1 87,214]

19 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

That's what this thread is for. Keep continue. 

 

 

Not sure why the gold-standard orgs. aren't polling MO more.  We've had enough fucking TX/FL polls.  I understand ND and IN because they are hard to poll.  So choose the other closest race!

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

 

 

[texastough 1,142]

6 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

Is he suggesting this might backfire by helping the D GOTV efforts, or that eventually the R base gets fatigued by it, or what?

[MidTexHorn 822]

4 minutes ago, texastough said:

Is he suggesting this might backfire by helping the D GOTV efforts, or that eventually the R base gets fatigued by it, or what?

I think he's suggesting that not even making the slightest effort to appeal to centrists, independents or god forbid the other side, may not be a winning formula long term when your base is only 40% of the voters.

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

4 minutes ago, texastough said:

Is he suggesting this might backfire by helping the D GOTV efforts, or that eventually the R base gets fatigued by it, or what?

I suspect it A) alienates indies, B) fires up Ds. I don't know that the appetite for red meat has diminished one iota.

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,873]

I hope he's suggesting he's going to have an article on some analysis of it instead of just throwing it out there.  

[MidTexHorn 822]

Fuck the Pete Olson guy. I'm embarrassed to live in the same state as him.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,873]

1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

yeesh.  that is some pronoun abuse in the headline.

[Ghost of LL 15,699]

8 minutes ago, texastough said:

Is he suggesting this might backfire by helping the D GOTV efforts, or that eventually the R base gets fatigued by it, or what?

 . . . or that independents (of their various stripes) make up the largest voting bloc, and if they break heavily against the GOP because the GOP is focused solely on mobilizing its base to the exclusion of all other voters, then the GOP is fuuuuuuuucked.

[MidTexHorn 822]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

yeesh.  that is some pronoun abuse in the headline.

Yeah, I had no idea who had done what until I read the actual article. Horrible headline writing there.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,873]

2 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Yeah, I had no idea who had done what until I read the actual article. Horrible headline writing there.

heh.  they pulled it and rewrote the headline.

 

 

 

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34,106]

do hats taste better these days? that's the second mention of someone eating a hat if someone loses.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,873]

[Js1 87,214]

11 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Yeah, I had no idea who had done what until I read the actual article. Horrible headline writing there.

I knew bc I've followed that polling but holy fuck that was awful at first

[Js1 87,214]

12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 . . . or that independents (of their various stripes) make up the largest voting bloc, and if they break heavily against the GOP because the GOP is focused solely on mobilizing its base to the exclusion of all other voters, then the GOP is fuuuuuuuucked.

Yup!  base strategy = independents/moderates flee

[Huckleberry 34,701]

The Comstock quote lines up with my anecdotal data. My wife is a college educated suburban woman who has been apolitical for her entire adult life. She's now in a message group with about a half-dozen area friends who have been similarly apolitical but have discussed their various reasons to start voting Democrat this year and have agreed to all do so.

I think it's likely maybe 3 of them even show up to vote but we'll see. And I was sworn to secrecy after my wife left the conversation up on the computer because apparently a couple of the women don't want their husbands to have any clue about the discussions even happening. I thought that was crazy but didn't take much to convince me to stay quiet. I don't talk about politics or religion with anyone around here as most of them would understand classical liberalism even less than voting Democrat.

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

21 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

yeesh.  that is some pronoun abuse in the headline.

 

20 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Yeah, I had no idea who had done what until I read the actual article. Horrible headline writing there.

 

16 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

heh.  they pulled it and rewrote the headline.

 

 

 

 

Good,  because I thought that she was losing and they were going to triage the campaign when I first read it too.

Shitty headline was shitty. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,873]

having blackmail material on your wife seems pretty pretty good.

[G650 14,447]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The Comstock quote lines up with my anecdotal data. My wife is a college educated suburban woman who has been apolitical for her entire adult life. She's now in a message group with about a half-dozen area friends who have been similarly apolitical but have discussed their various reasons to start voting Democrat this year and have agreed to all do so.

I think it's likely maybe 3 of them even show up to vote but we'll see. And I was sworn to secrecy after my wife left the conversation up on the computer because apparently a couple of the women don't want their husbands to have any clue about the discussions even happening. I thought that was crazy but didn't take much to convince me to stay quiet. I don't talk about politics or religion with anyone around here as most of them would understand classical liberalism even less than voting Democrat.

 

You mean you guys don't hangout and debate Locke's Second Treatise on Saturday nights?

[Huckleberry 34,701]

Just now, G650 said:

 

You mean you guys don't hangout and debate Locke's Second Treatise on Saturday nights?

You'd be surprised that every few weeks someone tries to start a conversation like that. Fortunately most of the husbands are on my side in terms of not talking about it so we ignore the two guys who try to start those conversations, or we all happen to get up to get another beer right at that moment.

During election season I just don't hang out with the group for a month or two. Problem solved.

[G650 14,447]

Wise.

[MidTexHorn 822]

5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The Comstock quote lines up with my anecdotal data. My wife is a college educated suburban woman who has been apolitical for her entire adult life. She's now in a message group with about a half-dozen area friends who have been similarly apolitical but have discussed their various reasons to start voting Democrat this year and have agreed to all do so.

I think it's likely maybe 3 of them even show up to vote but we'll see. And I was sworn to secrecy after my wife left the conversation up on the computer because apparently a couple of the women don't want their husbands to have any clue about the discussions even happening. I thought that was crazy but didn't take much to convince me to stay quiet. I don't talk about politics or religion with anyone around here as most of them would understand classical liberalism even less than voting Democrat.

My previously apolitical wife sounds similar to your wife, although to my knowledge she has no such group of friends. It's just kinda weirdly awesome that every time she sees a Democratic ad on TV she gets this weird look in her eye and says kinda quitely "just you wait." She was going to vote for Beto in this election and probably for other Dems for the first time in her life, but the Kavanaugh hearings absolutely set something off in her like I've never seen. She now HAAAATES Republicans.

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

I read Nate's replies to that tweet and took a quick glance at the home page. Nothing that says "follow up here". Perhaps it's a teaser. 

[G650 14,447]

13 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

My previously apolitical wife sounds similar to your wife, although to my knowledge she has no such group of friends. It's just kinda weirdly awesome that every time she sees a Democratic ad on TV she gets this weird look in her eye and says kinda quitely "just you wait." She was going to vote for Beto in this election and probably for other Dems for the first time in her life, but the Kavanaugh hearings absolutely set something off in her like I've never seen. She now HAAAATES Republicans.

 

I mean, to be honest, I feel really weird about this election myself. Iv'e never voted for all Democrats before in my life. This is going to be a surreal experience.

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

Found on FB

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,740]

I had a generally conservative relative tell me that he left the Senate race blank.  He doesn't like Beto but can't stand Cruz.  Otherwise it was a straight GOP ticket as usual.  

 

[MidTexHorn 822]

4 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

I mean, to be honest, I feel really weird about this election myself. Iv'e never voted for all Democrats before in my life. This is going to be a surreal experience.

Me too, but it was a lot easier than I thought. The last two years made it real real easy.

[texastough 1,142]

8 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Me too, but it was a lot easier than I thought. The last two years made it real real easy.

Exactly this. My first D vote ever -- and because of Trump/Cruz and the rest of the current shitbird R's, it was the first vote I've ever really been excited about

 

Edit -- forgot I voted for Obama too, but sort of held my nose at the time

Edited October 30, 2018 by texastough

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,873]

Just now, texastough said:

Exactly this. My first D vote ever -- and because of Trump/Cruz and the rest of the current shitbird R's, it was the first vote I've ever really been excited about

not voting cruz?  name does not check out.

[Patrick Bateman 3,982]

Internals must paint a bad picture.....

 

[Js1 87,214]

2 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Internals must paint a bad picture.....

 

V good chance Democrats sweep the entire Midwest governor races and their associated Senate races:

Whitmer (MI) - Stabenow (inc)

Cordray (OH)

Wolf (PA) - Casey Jr. (inc)

Evers (WI) - Baldwin (inc)

Hubbell (IA)

Walz (MN) - Smith (inc) and Klobuchar (inc)

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

I didn’t realize how doable it is for the Dems to take the Senate even if they lose Missouri and North Dakota.

It will be hard but not close to impossible.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

V good chance Democrats sweep the entire Midwest governor races and their associated Senate races:

Whitmer (MI) - Stabenow (inc)

Cordray (OH)

Wolf (PA) - Casey Jr. (inc)

Evers (WI) - Baldwin (inc)

Hubbell (IA)

Walz (MN) - Smith (inc) and Klobuchar (inc)

I agree with you on everything except Ohio.  I think Ohio has a ton of split ticket voters this year who support the democratic senator and vote Dewine for governor. 

Everything else is looking good up there tho. I really want to see Scott “pond scum” Walker lose. Getting Ohio would be huge because it’s a very important state in presidential races. Getting Iowa would be fun because if chuck grassley croaks, we could appoint a democratic senator in his place. 

Edited October 30, 2018 by Voldemort86

[Patrick Bateman 3,982]

Saw this.... thought it was interesting and sort of sad that folks can be so pliable.  She probably can't coherently support her voting patterns, either way.

 

[Ghost of LL 15,699]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I had a generally conservative relative tell me that he left the Senate race blank.  He doesn't like Beto but can't stand Cruz.  Otherwise it was a straight GOP ticket as usual.  

 

There is a woman in my office whose husband is very high in Texas GOP circles, and she reports the same phenomenon with a lot of people she knows.  That may be just people high up in the party, and isn't reflective of the voting populace as a whole.  But it's interesting to hear it now from a couple sources. 

[Patrick Bateman 3,982]

Orman pull out, could it put Kelly over the top?  

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,873]

Kobach is the election I care about most.  He’s the biggest threat to democracy.  

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Kobach is the election I care about most.  He’s the biggest threat to democracy.  

Kelly would be favored if it wasn’t for that douche Orman.

[Js1 87,214]

40 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I agree with you on everything except Ohio.  I think Ohio has a ton of split ticket voters this year who support the democratic senator and vote Dewine for governor. 

Everything else is looking good up there tho. I really want to see Scott “pond scum” Walker lose. Getting Ohio would be huge because it’s a very important state in presidential races. Getting Iowa would be fun because if chuck grassley croaks, we could appoint a democratic senator in his place. 

 

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

 

[RDCanecutter 26,901]

6 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

I'm thinking if that goes through, a few hundred of the 5,200 troops sent to the border might feel anxious for themselves. Maybe set up little self-governing Mad Max redoubts. It's what I'd do.

[Pancho 46,346]

Probably too premature but she’s winning me over as a 2020 candidate. Darkhorse? (No racist)

 

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

On 10/29/2018 at 12:25 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Supposedly there’s conflicting information out of Florida. 

Gillum and Nelson have been ahead in pretty much all the polls lately, but repubs are giddy about the early vote numbers so far. The only viable explanation is that the Dems must be winning independents by a big margin or the polls are way off for some reason.

Gillum is getting some bad press too.  

[Voldemort86 2,259]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Gillum is getting some bad press too.  

The Detrumpis racist comment, Neo nazis supporting him from Idaho, and him being seen as a trump puppet is arguably worse tho.

[thepop 4,418]

Gillum is getting bad press? Where? On fox news?

[Jack Burton 35]

According to KOKE FM he's anti cop. So there's that argument from the brain trust.

[gmr548 16,702]

According to KOKE FM he's anti cop. So there's that argument from the brain trust.

That sounds like good press to me.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[MidTexHorn 822]

So is Beto per my former HS classmate who is a cop. I respectfully disagree, but talking points.