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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3902

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

Probably too premature but she’s winning me over as a 2020 candidate. Darkhorse? (No racist)

 

Great answer.  Wish more Dems could verbalize their beliefs in such a positive and strong manner, but there's almost no chance she'd be the nominee.... Hilarious how McCain can't try to get her jab in over the applause.

 

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

 

Sherman Smith, managing editor for The Topeka Capital-Journal reporting tonight about his in person account:

 

VVVVV

  Hide contents

cont.

 

Im willing to admit that I would’ve gone if I was in the area. Just for the lulz. 

 

I already voted. Pretty much straight ticket democrat except for the governor race I voted Abbott because Lupe can’t put a sentence together. I’m a centrist dem who thinks the tea party is nuts, but I would’ve been laughing my ass off at the latest breitbart conspiracy theories.

Edited by Voldemort86
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bolverk

bolverk 29356

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Im willing to admit that I would’ve gone if I was in the area. Just for the lulz. 

 

I already voted. Pretty much straight ticket democrat except for the governor race I voted Abbott because Lupe can’t put a sentence together. I’m a centrist dem who thinks the tea party is nuts, but I would’ve been laughing my ass off at the latest breitbart conspiracy theories.

3

You know you are allowed to leave a race blank. There's absolutely no way I could've endorsed him (or her) through my vote.

Edited by bolverk
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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted

Lupe is a joke but Abbott deserves more hate than he’s getting.  He started with Jade Helm, cruised through saying leaving Austin smells like freedom, and ended with tweeting about indicting ANOTHER!!! voter fraudster (bringing the total to 3).  

 

As his fellow Republican said: he panders to idiots.  I’d take Perry back in a heartbeat. Nobody that views his base as sub 80 IQ will see me among them.  

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bolverk

bolverk 29356

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Lupe is a joke but Abbott deserves more hate than he’s getting.  He started with Jade Helm, cruised through saying leaving Austin smells like freedom, and ended with tweeting about indicting ANOTHER!!! voter fraudster (bringing the total to 3).  

 

As his fellow Republican said: he panders to idiots.  I’d take Perry back in a heartbeat. Nobody that views his base as sub 80 IQ will see me among them.  

Agreed. At the time of the transition from Perry to Abbott, I briefly worked for one of the supposedly "non-political" divisions (that was a bald-faced lie) that unfortunately falls under the umbrella of the Texas governor's office. At first, I was hopeful that Abbott would set straight some of the lunacy. Things got even worse instead, which resulted in my leaving.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted

Does anyone feel like this election could be catastrophic for the GOP?  I was thinking about how much shit this country has been through under the Trump administration and the amount of spontaneous activism it’s inspired over the past 18 months. 

The women’s march, the muslim ban, the Vegas shooter, the parkland kids, the march for our lives, the health care fiasco, the child separation policy, the transgender ban, Charlottesville, Helsinki, the Comey firing, the G20 Summit, North Korea capitulation, the trade war, Scott Pruitt, wife beaters, nepotism, Kavanaugh, the Russia investigation, porn star payoffs, Fire and Fury, Bob Woodward, Omarosa tapes, Maria Butina, National Security Advisor/foreign agent, BS tax cut, Paris Climate agreement, NFL flag bullshit.

Maybe I’m reading this wrong but it just seems like the republicans only show up when called on like with Kavanaugh or the gun debate but the democrats have been quietly mobilizing in the background nonstop for 18 months. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18582

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Does anyone feel like this election could be catastrophic for the GOP?  I was thinking about how much shit this country has been through under the Trump administration and the amount of spontaneous activism it’s inspired over the past 18 months. 

The women’s march, the muslim ban, the Vegas shooter, the parkland kids, the march for our lives, the health care fiasco, the child separation policy, the transgender ban, Charlottesville, Helsinki, the Comey firing, the G20 Summit, North Korea capitulation, the trade war, Scott Pruitt, wife beaters, nepotism, Kavanaugh, the Russia investigation, porn star payoffs, Fire and Fury, Bob Woodward, Omarosa tapes, Maria Butina, National Security Advisor/foreign agent, BS tax cut, Paris Climate agreement, NFL flag bullshit.

Maybe I’m reading this wrong but it just seems like the republicans only show up when called on like with Kavanaugh or the gun debate but the democrats have been quietly mobilizing in the background nonstop for 18 months. 

It's only catastrophic if they lose both houses. I just don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong.

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

Posted
Posted

Anecdotes of desperate / deranged Republicans in Houston.

I live off a main road with a large tree-lined median. It's a few blocks from the area's local early voting spot, so somebody stuck a bunch of "Vote Today" signs in the grass between the trees.

Within a few days, some asshole came and stuck just as many "Had Enough? Vote Republican Judges" signs in between them. And a few days after that, the partisan signs were gone and the generic appeals to civic duty remained.

Oh, and a former co-worker / friend of mine who lives in Clear Lake had her Beto sign torn down and smeared with human shit and tossed back in her yard. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89353

Posted
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Posted
8 hours ago, MidTexHorn said:

Me too, but it was a lot easier than I thought. The last two years made it real real easy.

Yeah, it's crazy how I've just kind of slid into voting mostly D. Sure, it's mostly protesting against Rs, but I always thought that if I bailed on the GOP, it would be for the libertarians.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Lupe is a joke but Abbott deserves more hate than he’s getting.  He started with Jade Helm, cruised through saying leaving Austin smells like freedom, and ended with tweeting about indicting ANOTHER!!! voter fraudster (bringing the total to 3).  

 

As his fellow Republican said: he panders to idiots.  I’d take Perry back in a heartbeat. Nobody that views his base as sub 80 IQ will see me among them.  

It pains me to write this but I’d vote for aggy perry over abbot today in a heartbeat. The guy is just a complete tool. God how low we have sunk. 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27593

Posted
Posted

In most ranked-choice elections, the plurality winner still ends up winning. The instances where it can tip the scales are in races with multiple candidates with overlapping positions on some issues, such as in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) and state Rep. Jared Golden (D) are in a dead heat in the polls, with two independents — Tiffany Bond and Will Hoar — trailing far behind. By all indications, second-choice votes will decide who wins a majority in the district.

 

Bond, Hoar and Golden have all pledged to accept the outcome from ranked-choice tabulation, but Poliquin refused to answer the yes-or-no question at their final debate.

“I’m going to circle in Bruce Poliquin, one and only vote, drop it in the box, and go forward,” he said on Oct. 16.

“I don’t think he answered the question, but yes, absolutely,” Golden rebutted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/31/can-ranked-choice-voting-end-ugly-election-battles-this-november-maine-hopes-find-out/?utm_term=.ce0d8878ab4d

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Does anyone feel like this election could be catastrophic for the GOP?  I was thinking about how much shit this country has been through under the Trump administration and the amount of spontaneous activism it’s inspired over the past 18 months. 

The women’s march, the muslim ban, the Vegas shooter, the parkland kids, the march for our lives, the health care fiasco, the child separation policy, the transgender ban, Charlottesville, Helsinki, the Comey firing, the G20 Summit, North Korea capitulation, the trade war, Scott Pruitt, wife beaters, nepotism, Kavanaugh, the Russia investigation, porn star payoffs, Fire and Fury, Bob Woodward, Omarosa tapes, Maria Butina, National Security Advisor/foreign agent, BS tax cut, Paris Climate agreement, NFL flag bullshit.

Maybe I’m reading this wrong but it just seems like the republicans only show up when called on like with Kavanaugh or the gun debate but the democrats have been quietly mobilizing in the background nonstop for 18 months. 

I finally found the figure for 18-29 year olds who voted in Texas in 2014 and it was 13% of the 4.6 million. Their early vote has been reported at over 500% higher than 2014. If that figure held for the entire election it would mean 3 million more 18-29 year olds voted in 2018 than 2014. Even if it is more realistically 1.5 million it would flip Texas solid blue. That 500% figure tells us that the high early voting in Texas definitely favors Democrats. And it is well above my most conservative estimates which still have Beto winning by 1-2%.

I similarly think Florida and Georgia will experience new voter turnout that far exceeds the demographics used by pollsters. The Arizona senate seat is looking more solid for the Democrats too. Losing Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas at the same time would be catastrophic to the gop and probably give the Democrats the Senate. As for the house it would not surprise me if the Democrats get a 60% majority the way things look.

 

 

 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9881

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

2 polls dropped earlier today showing the Pubs opening up a lead in some tight races.

 

The Blackburn poll actually represents a tightening overall.  Having said that, Marist is a top notch outfit.  Blackburn clearly has a lead.

Edited by Bateshorn
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Does anyone feel like this election could be catastrophic for the GOP?  I was thinking about how much shit this country has been through under the Trump administration and the amount of spontaneous activism it’s inspired over the past 18 months. 

The women’s march, the muslim ban, the Vegas shooter, the parkland kids, the march for our lives, the health care fiasco, the child separation policy, the transgender ban, Charlottesville, Helsinki, the Comey firing, the G20 Summit, North Korea capitulation, the trade war, Scott Pruitt, wife beaters, nepotism, Kavanaugh, the Russia investigation, porn star payoffs, Fire and Fury, Bob Woodward, Omarosa tapes, Maria Butina, National Security Advisor/foreign agent, BS tax cut, Paris Climate agreement, NFL flag bullshit.

Maybe I’m reading this wrong but it just seems like the republicans only show up when called on like with Kavanaugh or the gun debate but the democrats have been quietly mobilizing in the background nonstop for 18 months. 

It’s possible the blue wave will occur but it will be close so it easily could be a blue ripple.  Still if the House flips, that is nothing but a major failure for trump.   The gop will have to do one soul searching whether they will continue to bow to the altar of trump.  All politicians first goal is to stay in power and they will shun trump if they think it will hurt them more in 2020.  Look at how every PA politician, even republicans refused to fly with trump to Pitt yesterday.  He was too toxic for them.

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The Blackburn poll actually represents a tightening overall.  Having said that, Marist is a top notch outfit.  Blackburn clearly has a lead.

Should not be a surprise.

Cygnal has 538 a bigger Republican-leaning bias than Rasmussen.  Throw it on the pile but I don't take stock in it.  the 538 model actually moved the MO race in favor of Claire after the Cygnal poll there because of how right leaning the House effect is.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27593

Posted
Posted

Quote

 

"And I don't know who in this room did it, but these guys with the little boats that think they have this great boat — where do these people come from?," asked the President. "They want to go out and they want to go into the hurricane and show their wife how great they are and then they get out there and say, 'Oh my God, I'm dead."

----

 

"I am sorry to hear that my opponent has so little to offer that she's focused on Twitter comments or some sidebar that the President made," said U.S. Rep. Culberson. "I'm focused on results. As the only appropriator in southeast Texas, I delivered the largest hurricane relief package in the history of the United States."

 

http://www.fox26houston.com/you-decide/lizzie-fletcher-says-president-trump-belittled-harvey-rescuers

Guess the cajun navy should have stayed home.

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted

Per Ralston, Clark County is at +10 D, which is a point higher than 2010 (when Reid won by 6) but lower than 2012 and 2016 - Cortez-Masto won in 2016 and Heller won in 2012 but that was where Shelley Berkley banked a big EV total and then a House ethics probe basically destroyed her on Election Day.

Monday and Tuesday of week 2 are typically the GOP's best EV days in Nevada so Dems have to feel good if that firewall gets to 12-15+ by Friday.  Per Ralston, GOP is cannibalizing a lot of its ED voters in the EV period, so they may not have their usual ED win.

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Im willing to admit that I would’ve gone if I was in the area. Just for the lulz. 

 

I already voted. Pretty much straight ticket democrat except for the governor race I voted Abbott because Lupe can’t put a sentence together. I’m a centrist dem who thinks the tea party is nuts, but I would’ve been laughing my ass off at the latest breitbart conspiracy theories.

I would love to sit down and have a couple of beers with Bannon. I despise him as a human, but he's intellectual and is one of the few smart guys behind Trump's curtain. I think it would be fascinating to pick his brain and to have an honest debate.  

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, RayDog said:

I finally found the figure for 18-29 year olds who voted in Texas in 2014 and it was 13% of the 4.6 million. Their early vote has been reported at over 500% higher than 2014. If that figure held for the entire election it would mean 3 million more 18-29 year olds voted in 2018 than 2014. Even if it is more realistically 1.5 million it would flip Texas solid blue. That 500% figure tells us that the high early voting in Texas definitely favors Democrats. And it is well above my most conservative estimates which still have Beto winning by 1-2%.

I similarly think Florida and Georgia will experience new voter turnout that far exceeds the demographics used by pollsters. The Arizona senate seat is looking more solid for the Democrats too. Losing Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas at the same time would be catastrophic to the gop and probably give the Democrats the Senate. As for the house it would not surprise me if the Democrats get a 60% majority the way things look.

 

 

 

I think the big question of this race is how the "new voters" in the 18-29 yr old bracket split. Say it's 1.5 million more 18-29 yr. olds voting than in 2014, is that a 60/40 D advantage? 55/45? I'm just curious if there will be a lot of jocks and frat guy first time voters that will somewhat offset the theatre arts/hipster first time voters, and if so to what extent. (apologies for the stereotyping, if your offended by the generalizations please go fuck yourself)

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32682

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

I think the big question of this race is how the "new voters" in the 18-29 yr old bracket split. Say it's 1.5 million more 18-29 yr. olds voting than in 2014, is that a 60/40 D advantage? 55/45? I'm just curious if there will be a lot of jocks and frat guy first time voters that will somewhat offset the theatre arts/hipster first time voters, and if so to what extent. (apologies for the stereotyping, if your offended by the generalizations please go fuck yourself)

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/

imgur

I think 60/35 in that age group is a reasonable, and conservative, estimate.

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