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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/

 

 

I think 60/35 in that age group is a reasonable, and conservative, estimate.

I just think Texas is a different beast than a national study. Maybe it's just because I spend too much time in Port Aransas and all the kids down there have Trump flags waiving from their confederate flag covered pick-ups. I think those types will be first time voters as well, just not sure what percentage they make up. 

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Bozo_Casanova
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You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

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Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

David Dennison

David Dennison 18582

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Lagunamadre said:

I just think Texas is a different beast than a national study. Maybe it's just because I spend too much time in Port Aransas and all the kids down there have Trump flags waiving from their confederate flag covered pick-ups. I think those types will be first time voters as well, just not sure what percentage they make up. 

If I had to guess, those kids won't vote.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted

Ryan's data also gives a peek at how two key demographics for Democrats are turning out so far. While they represent almost double the percentage of the electorate than they did in 2014, voters 20-29 are still voting in smaller proportion than they did in 2016. Same goes for voters 30-39. Voters 60-69 and 70-79, conversely, compose a greater percentage of the electorate than they did two years ago, although they do make up less of the electorate than they did in 2014.

 

This makes me want to rip my hair out.

cb7.gif

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kevwun

kevwun 15591

Posted
Posted

Kemp is trying to steal an election in broad daylight.  Wonder why Republicans are always trying to make it as difficult as possible for certain people to vote?  Maybe we should start moving polling places to the upper floors of very tall buildings that don't have elevators?  That would even things out a bit.

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

Several friends who are/were active duty military are sharing a similar bucket of GOP trash called "The Truth About Tim Walz" attempting to Swift Boat him. Fuck that shit. 

 

It would help their case if everyone at the upper reaches of the Minnesota GOP ticket weren't total scumbags. 

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted

Inject it into my veins

Still calling these 2 pickups for the Dems - ND is lost barring a miracle, MO is the toss-up as to whether Senate stays 51/49 or we go 50/50.  Nelson is going to win, Manchin is safe, Donnelly will pull it out since actual independent polling has him up.

At which point you can potentially start picking off a Collins/Murkowski or vulnerable 2020er like Gardner on critical votes (unless he already knows he's dead in the water and DGAF).  Otherwise, Mike Pence better just set up a cot in the Senate Chamber because he's going to have to break every single vote.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27593

Posted
Posted (edited)

I suspect some of y'all are avoiding the synagogue shooting thread and I don't blame you. However, it does have a crossover element here. This friends is why I am fascinated by politics beyond the normal reasons. 

Quote

 

So who is Lena Epstein? She is a twice-over heiress, the scion of an extremely wealthy Detroit area family which owns a major regional oil distributor and supplier of industrial lubricants to Chrysler, Vesco Oil. She and her sister Lilly now run the company.

The family is or was made up of moderate Democrats – and she was herself one until at least her mid-twenties. She was actually a Kerry campaign volunteer in 2004. They’re also big machers in the local Jewish community. In many ways, Epstein is a kind of regional Jared Kushner type. In fact, they both graduated in the same class from Harvard. But some time around 2011 and 2012 she shifted to the right and got heavily involved in Republican politics. Indeed, I found some evidence that she was originally radicalized by Dinesh D’Souza. (No really. I’m not kidding about this.) In 2012 she got on the ill-fated Santorum for President bandwagon and was hosting gala events for him like this one.

 

Spoiler

22008150_707432889445883_854782174983772

The Republican candidate for MI-11

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/never-go-full-trump-the-lena-epstein-story

Edited by cactusflinthead
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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9881

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

I suspect some of y'all are avoiding the synagogue shooting thread and I don't blame you. However, it does have a crossover element here. This friends is why I am fascinated by politics beyond the normal reasons. 

  Reveal hidden contents

22008150_707432889445883_854782174983772

The Republican candidate for MI-11

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/never-go-full-trump-the-lena-epstein-story

Holy fuck that is bizarre.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, kevwun said:

Kemp is trying to steal an election in broad daylight.  Wonder why Republicans are always trying to make it as difficult as possible for certain people to vote?  Maybe we should start moving polling places to the upper floors of very tall buildings that don't have elevators?  That would even things out a bit.

Here's the scary thing even if Kemp loses. He's getting checked on his appeals and even the case that didn't allow us have paper ballots implemented this year (but still tore apart Kemp and the SoS office) will likely get us pushed to getting them or a better system in 2020. These were both federal judges appointed under Obama, right now they fast tracked dozens of judges like this that McConnell's evil piece of shit ass has picked. It is quite possible we see this crisis come up again and go in a much worse direction after we see a large number of these current judges retire.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13125

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah I'm sure the people in Montana can't wait to hear a guy from NYC talk shit about a guy born and raised in Montana.

They unironically are going to love it. Political allegiance beats every other type of mutual identity.

Edited by bad_teammate
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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted

The Montana rep who won that runoff last year and attacked the reporter was from New Jersey and his opponent was a folk singer born and raised in Montana. Republicans love to stoke up some anxiety about out-of-state influence, but of course are entire hypocrites when it helps them.

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texastough

texastough 1128

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

They unironically are going to love it. Political allegiance beats every other type of mutual identity.

This is unfortunately correct and I can confirm that most of the mountain west loves Trump simply because they hate all politicians, think Trump is a "businessman" and think he is actually draining the swamp. No amount of facts or reality changes that, because at core most people are either conservative or liberal and the last thing any cowboys want to be is a liberal.

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted
Just now, texastough said:

This is unfortunately correct and I can confirm that most of the mountain west loves Trump simply because they hate all politicians, think Trump is a "businessman" and think he is actually draining the swamp. No amount of facts or reality changes that, because at core most people are either conservative or liberal and the last thing any cowboys want to be is a liberal.

Montana is a state who re-elected a Democrat as governor the same year they voted for Trump.  Personalities matter a lot in these types of state.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, G650 said:

Bannon has pretty comprehensively been shown to be an intellectual lightweight.

Don’t let his dumbass tactics fool you, he knows his shit and has a good sense of history.  He overestimates the suckers a lot in his macro strategic political calculations, probably due to arrogant hubris.  

However, he can hang with the intellectuals when he wants to.  The problem with him is he’s always trying to manipulate the audience in front of him so you never get the real Bannon for more than a few minutes at a time.

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G650

G650 13980

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Don’t let his dumbass tactics fool you, he knows his shit and has a good sense of history.  He overestimates the suckers a lot in his macro strategic political calculations, probably due to arrogant hubris.  

However, he can hang with the intellectuals when he wants to.  The problem with him is he’s always trying to manipulate the audience in front of him so you never get the real Bannon for more than a few minutes at a time.

I don't want to devolve what is a good thread debating the finer points on Bannonism, but in a nutshell, he has a terrible sense of history, a pathetic reading list and is only capable of pseudo intellectualism which is carried by a veneer of fancy sounding words. He is like the people that think the Matrix is a deep movie.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, G650 said:

I don't want to devolve what is a good thread debating the finer points on Bannonism, but in a nutshell, he has a terrible sense of history, a pathetic reading list and is only capable of pseudo intellectualism which is carried by a veneer of fancy sounding words. He is like the people that think the Matrix is a deep movie.

I think you’re trying to say he’s a white trash intellectual. 

Which is accurate.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, G650 said:

I don't want to devolve what is a good thread debating the finer points on Bannonism, but in a nutshell, he has a terrible sense of history, a pathetic reading list and is only capable of pseudo intellectualism which is carried by a veneer of fancy sounding words. He is like the people that think the Matrix is a deep movie.

The Matrix IS a deep movie though!

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted

BOOM

https://www.yahoo.com/news/midterms-2018-early-voting-young-100419572.html

Early voting by young people up 500% in both Texas and Georgia. 

Lets see... you’re 18 years old. Who would you pick 

Beto = cool punk rocker who skate boards in the whataburger parking lot late at night 

Cruz = slimy Canadian lawyer who is hated by everyone in congress and half the repubs in Texas.

Abrams = intelligent charismatic candidate who has celebrities ( will Ferrell and Oprah) working their asses off to overcome voter suppression and make history.

kemp= leader of the voter suppression. Has a creepy ad where he points shotguns at 16 year olds. Drives around Georgia in a deportation bus.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

BOOM

https://www.yahoo.com/news/midterms-2018-early-voting-young-100419572.html

Early voting by young people up 500% in both Texas and Georgia. 

Lets see... you’re 18 years old. Who would you pick 

Beto = cool punk rocker who skate boards in the whataburger parking lot late at night 

Cruz = slimy Canadian lawyer who is hated by everyone in congress and half the repubs in Texas.

Abrams = intelligent charismatic candidate who has celebrities ( will Ferrell and Oprah) working their asses off to overcome voter suppression and make history.

kemp= leader of the voter suppression. Has a creepy ad where he points shotguns at 16 year olds. Drives around Georgia in a deportation bus.

nobody knows anything.  nobody has any good data.  square that 500% (508% we've seen) with this:

 

Ryan's data also gives a peek at how two key demographics for Democrats are turning out so far. While they represent almost double the percentage of the electorate than they did in 2014, voters 20-29 are still voting in smaller proportion than they did in 2016. Same goes for voters 30-39. Voters 60-69 and 70-79, conversely, compose a greater percentage of the electorate than they did two years ago, although they do make up less of the electorate than they did in 2014.

Everything is all over the place.

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I think you’re trying to say he’s a white trash intellectual. 

Which is accurate.

If somebody from this iteration of the GOP knows the difference between a shia and a sunni, I'll put them in the intellectual category. The vast majority these days would respond to that question with "who cares, just bomb them all". The bar has been lowered.  

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

If somebody from this iteration of the GOP knows the difference between a shia and a sunni, I'll put them in the intellectual category. The vast majority these days would respond to that question with "who cares, just bomb them all". The bar has been lowered.  

Ah yes, the pacificist Democratic Party. The one that gets mad anytime Trump doesn’t bomb people fast enough for their liking.

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3589

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

BOOM

https://www.yahoo.com/news/midterms-2018-early-voting-young-100419572.html

Early voting by young people up 500% in both Texas and Georgia. 

Lets see... you’re 18 years old. Who would you pick 

Beto = cool punk rocker who skate boards in the whataburger parking lot late at night 

Cruz = slimy Canadian lawyer who is hated by everyone in congress and half the repubs in Texas.

Abrams = intelligent charismatic candidate who has celebrities ( will Ferrell and Oprah) working their asses off to overcome voter suppression and make history.

kemp= leader of the voter suppression. Has a creepy ad where he points shotguns at 16 year olds. Drives around Georgia in a deportation bus.

So pretty much every Senate poll in Texas is worthless at this point. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Seems like theres a trend back to democrats in the close Senate races? I can haz Senate majority?

The picture in the senate actually does seem to be getting better.

I still wouldn’t think about a majority if I were you. The best I think the Dems can do is 50 / 50 and that would mean mr. “Afraid to dine alone with a woman whose not his wife” would be spending a lot more time on the senate floor.

 

 

Edited by Voldemort86
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G650

G650 13980

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lagunamadre said:

If somebody from this iteration of the GOP knows the difference between a shia and a sunni, I'll put them in the intellectual category. The vast majority these days would respond to that question with "who cares, just bomb them all". The bar has been lowered.  

Well, I don't disagree there. I guess i just refuse to lower my standards personally. 

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bolverk

bolverk 29356

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Ah yes, the pacificist Democratic Party. The one that gets mad anytime Trump doesn’t bomb people fast enough for their liking.

He's referring to the crowd whose default response to Middle East issues is "turn the desert into glass." From my few years of experience in the CR, that group squarely fits into the "conservative" category.

Edited by bolverk
whose who's
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