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2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

I read Ralston last week and he seems overly obsessed with Clark Co.  He seems to forget that this is a statewide race and the vote outside Clark was much stronger this year.  Statewide Democrats lead by approx 22k votes this year.  In 2016 it was 47k at the end of EV and Hillary won the state by 27k votes.  That's how close it is.

That was a presidential year.

EDIT: Also Clark makes up almost 2/3 of the vote share in the state.

Edited by Calihorn
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Celery Man

Celery Man 21100

Posted
Posted

Wait - is there anything behind Trump's accusation that Gillum is a stone cold thief?  Like, if you said Beto was a drunk, I'd disagree that his DUI arrest twenty years ago shows that or is a problem, but I'd understand how you can say that about him.  I assumed there was something like that with Gillum - is there?

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Wait - is there anything behind Trump's accusation that Gillum is a stone cold thief?  Like, if you said Beto was a drunk, I'd disagree that his DUI arrest twenty years ago shows that or is a problem, but I'd understand how you can say that about him.  I assumed there was something like that with Gillum - is there?

Didn’t he steal broadway theatre tickets or some such?

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12409

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Wait - is there anything behind Trump's accusation that Gillum is a stone cold thief?  Like, if you said Beto was a drunk, I'd disagree that his DUI arrest twenty years ago shows that or is a problem, but I'd understand how you can say that about him.  I assumed there was something like that with Gillum - is there?

Relatedly, agree 100% with Silver here...

 

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G650

G650 14448

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

It’s a cute pupper tho.

Ironically, that couple walking their dogs stopped and thanked me for the Luria sign in the yard because they were glad that someone in this neighborhood wasn't totally fucking insane.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3250

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

That was a presidential year.

EDIT: Also Clark makes up almost 2/3 of the vote share in the state.

Let's prorate it then.  In 2016, 780k EV cast in NV.  This year, 629k cast or 81%

The 47k Dem advantage in EV from 2016 would need to be 38k this year to represent the same margin.  It's 22k instead in a smaller electorate that I just tried to adjust for.  Election day can shift those numbers around some but the key factor is probably going to be the way independents break.  That's how Heller won in 2012 even with a popular president at the top of the ticket for the other side.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27628

Posted
Posted (edited)
Quote

By a small but consistent margin, Love has been running ahead of her Democratic challenger, Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams, for most of the year. But this month, Love has been trending downward in the polls, which have shown a dead heat, and a poll released Tuesday shows her trailing by more than the margin of error for the first time. The poll—conducted by KUTV, a Salt Lake TV station owned by the conservative Sinclair Broadcasting, and Dixie Strategies, a polling firm that leans Republican—found that among likely voters, McAdams now holds a 6-point lead over Love.

---

That’s somewhat remarkable, given that her district was gerrymandered to make sure a Democrat could never prevail there. Virtually all of the state’s Democratic minority is clustered around Salt Lake City and the resort towns of Park City and Moab. For much of Utah’s history, Salt Lake City and the surrounding county were essentially their own congressional district and reliably sent a Democrat to Congress. But starting in 1999, Republicans in the Utah Legislature have twice redistricted Salt Lake City to split it into four different congressional districts, none of which has a majority of Democrats. Since Matheson’s retirement in 2014, there hasn’t been a single Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation

 

 

Edited by cactusflinthead
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UT_EX_82

UT_EX_82 2

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

It's alleged that he got free ticket to Hamilton.

I don't think he denied getting/using the tickets but he thought his brother got them (ie bought them himself).  That's kinda thin but who knows--if I received coveted tickets from my brother to something---box seats to a World Series game I would like to know how/where my brother got them.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13741

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 


That guy is going to shoot or mail bombs to someone if DeSantis loses.

FIFY

 

You could be right.  When you get to that point, you won’t be able to accept a loss.  The only explanation is that the other side cheated.  It will work him up even more.   Wouldn’t shock me if there is some violence on Tuesday. Sadly it will definitely occur in some homes.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You could be right.  When you get to that point, you won’t be able to accept a loss.  The only explanation is that the other side cheated.  It will work him up even more.   Wouldn’t shock me if there is some violence on Tuesday. Sadly it will definitely occur in some homes.

Sadly, Tuesday will be just the beginning.  Lots of   emotionally vulnerable people have been exploited by the subversive forces on the right to fight to the death for their “cause”.  Many have been indoctrinated into an alternate reality.  Luckily, most are olds and idiots. 

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

Posted
Posted



I truly don’t get why saying a state might become like California is supposed to be a bad, scary thing.

Oh, my state might become one of the largest economies in the world, have a budget surplus, have phenomenal universities, and have vibrant cities and beautiful places to visit?

OH NO NOT THAT!!!!
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 

 


I truly don’t get why saying a state might become like California is supposed to be a bad, scary thing.

Oh, my state might become one of the largest economies in the world, have a budget surplus, have phenomenal universities, and have vibrant cities and beautiful places to visit?

OH NO NOT THAT!!!!

 

Donald trump jr. is a fucking moron.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13741

Posted
Posted

An under discussed consequence of this election are gerrymandering for 2020-2030.   In many states, the governor can veto the newly drawn district maps.   Many of the governors being elected Tuesday will have that power even if the state legislature is controlled by the other party. 

The close governor elections for these states include Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Kansas. 

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