2018 - Elections and Trends

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,868]

 

She's so badass. Wish i could vote for her

[Zonahorn 8,079]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

I read Ralston last week and he seems overly obsessed with Clark Co.  He seems to forget that this is a statewide race and the vote outside Clark was much stronger this year.  Statewide Democrats lead by approx 22k votes this year.  In 2016 it was 47k at the end of EV and Hillary won the state by 27k votes.  That's how close it is.

That was a presidential year.

EDIT: Also Clark makes up almost 2/3 of the vote share in the state.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Calihorn

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

Uh oh. The sheriff referred it to the FBI. 

 

[Message Board User 12,395]

 

[Pancho 44,756]

 

[Celery Man 20,934]

Wait - is there anything behind Trump's accusation that Gillum is a stone cold thief?  Like, if you said Beto was a drunk, I'd disagree that his DUI arrest twenty years ago shows that or is a problem, but I'd understand how you can say that about him.  I assumed there was something like that with Gillum - is there?

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Wait - is there anything behind Trump's accusation that Gillum is a stone cold thief?  Like, if you said Beto was a drunk, I'd disagree that his DUI arrest twenty years ago shows that or is a problem, but I'd understand how you can say that about him.  I assumed there was something like that with Gillum - is there?

Didn’t he steal broadway theatre tickets or some such?

[Message Board User 12,395]

4 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Wait - is there anything behind Trump's accusation that Gillum is a stone cold thief?  Like, if you said Beto was a drunk, I'd disagree that his DUI arrest twenty years ago shows that or is a problem, but I'd understand how you can say that about him.  I assumed there was something like that with Gillum - is there?

Relatedly, agree 100% with Silver here...

 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

He meant, she's not white enough.

And the vagina. Don’t forget the vagina.

[Gil Bang 25,934]

2 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Didn’t he steal broadway theatre tickets or some such?

It's alleged that he got free ticket to Hamilton.

[Gil Bang 25,934]

2 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 

And the vagina. Don’t forget the vagina.

 

I never do. 

[Celery Man 20,934]

Just now, Gil Bang said:

It's alleged that he got free ticket to Hamilton.

jtfc

[G650 14,249]

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

It’s a cute pupper tho.

Ironically, that couple walking their dogs stopped and thanked me for the Luria sign in the yard because they were glad that someone in this neighborhood wasn't totally fucking insane.

[sushihorn 3,233]

56 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

That was a presidential year.

EDIT: Also Clark makes up almost 2/3 of the vote share in the state.

Let's prorate it then.  In 2016, 780k EV cast in NV.  This year, 629k cast or 81%

The 47k Dem advantage in EV from 2016 would need to be 38k this year to represent the same margin.  It's 22k instead in a smaller electorate that I just tried to adjust for.  Election day can shift those numbers around some but the key factor is probably going to be the way independents break.  That's how Heller won in 2012 even with a popular president at the top of the ticket for the other side.

[Message Board User 12,395]

 

[Message Board User 12,395]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

Quote

By a small but consistent margin, Love has been running ahead of her Democratic challenger, Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams, for most of the year. But this month, Love has been trending downward in the polls, which have shown a dead heat, and a poll released Tuesday shows her trailing by more than the margin of error for the first time. The poll—conducted by KUTV, a Salt Lake TV station owned by the conservative Sinclair Broadcasting, and Dixie Strategies, a polling firm that leans Republican—found that among likely voters, McAdams now holds a 6-point lead over Love.

---

That’s somewhat remarkable, given that her district was gerrymandered to make sure a Democrat could never prevail there. Virtually all of the state’s Democratic minority is clustered around Salt Lake City and the resort towns of Park City and Moab. For much of Utah’s history, Salt Lake City and the surrounding county were essentially their own congressional district and reliably sent a Democrat to Congress. But starting in 1999, Republicans in the Utah Legislature have twice redistricted Salt Lake City to split it into four different congressional districts, none of which has a majority of Democrats. Since Matheson’s retirement in 2014, there hasn’t been a single Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation

 

 

Edited November 3, 2018 by cactusflinthead

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

I’m sure it’s the biased media and fake polls but it seems that most of the recent polls have shown a jump to the left.  

[UT_EX_82 2]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

It's alleged that he got free ticket to Hamilton.

I don't think he denied getting/using the tickets but he thought his brother got them (ie bought them himself).  That's kinda thin but who knows--if I received coveted tickets from my brother to something---box seats to a World Series game I would like to know how/where my brother got them.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

17 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

I think she’s almost certainly going to lose.

shes going up against the mayor of Salt Lake City. SLC makes up about 80% of that district.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Why are they so mad all the time?

[Mack Tripper 696]

Fun fact: Stacey Abrams has a MPA from Texas.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

25 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Why are they so mad all the time?

I think I have some strong political opinions but I like to think I can keep my cool.   That guy is gonna explode if desantis loses.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

I think I have some strong political opinions but I like to think I can keep my cool.   That guy is gonna explode if desantis loses.

That guy is going to shoot or mail bombs to someone if DeSantis loses.

FIFY

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

5 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 

That guy is going to shoot or mail bombs to someone if DeSantis loses.

FIFY

 

You could be right.  When you get to that point, you won’t be able to accept a loss.  The only explanation is that the other side cheated.  It will work him up even more.   Wouldn’t shock me if there is some violence on Tuesday. Sadly it will definitely occur in some homes.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,441]

I’m sure it’s the biased media and fake polls but it seems that most of the recent polls have shown a jump to the left.  

And then a step to the riiiight

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You could be right.  When you get to that point, you won’t be able to accept a loss.  The only explanation is that the other side cheated.  It will work him up even more.   Wouldn’t shock me if there is some violence on Tuesday. Sadly it will definitely occur in some homes.

Sadly, Tuesday will be just the beginning.  Lots of   emotionally vulnerable people have been exploited by the subversive forces on the right to fight to the death for their “cause”.  Many have been indoctrinated into an alternate reality.  Luckily, most are olds and idiots. 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,644]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Why are they so mad all the time?

They are mad because they are tired of winning. 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

4 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Hell yeah! Thanks for the updates man. Keep them coming. I can barely stop thinking about this until Tuesday. I want to see trump lose so bad.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Voldemort86

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[Celery Man 20,934]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[Pancho 44,756]

 

[GSU&UT 1,798]

31 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

There was some legit weird shit that happened in that special election runoff. This is why I fear that Kemp is just going to straight up rig this thing, the courts be damned if people sue.

[Message Board User 12,395]

Awkward?

 

[tantric superman 4,667]

Canvassed for John Turner (State Rep) in Dallas today.  Fun.  But hardly anyone home.

Will try to do this earlier in the cycle next time around. 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

I truly don’t get why saying a state might become like California is supposed to be a bad, scary thing.

Oh, my state might become one of the largest economies in the world, have a budget surplus, have phenomenal universities, and have vibrant cities and beautiful places to visit?

OH NO NOT THAT!!!!

[Voldemort86 2,259]

39 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 

 

I truly don’t get why saying a state might become like California is supposed to be a bad, scary thing.

Oh, my state might become one of the largest economies in the world, have a budget surplus, have phenomenal universities, and have vibrant cities and beautiful places to visit?

OH NO NOT THAT!!!!

 

Donald trump jr. is a fucking moron.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

An under discussed consequence of this election are gerrymandering for 2020-2030.   In many states, the governor can veto the newly drawn district maps.   Many of the governors being elected Tuesday will have that power even if the state legislature is controlled by the other party. 

The close governor elections for these states include Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Kansas.