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2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Texas73

Texas73 420

Posted
Posted
Quote

An incredible 5.8 million ballots have been cast in Texas. That's 1.1 million more votes cast than in the entire 2014 election!

Voters age 18-39 account for 24% of those ballots. They were only 13% of the early vote in '14.

I'd like to see the % of voters 18-39 in the 2016 general election in Texas.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/04/trump-2018-elections-midterms-republicans-immigration-960748

Trump causing problems for house GOP because of his immigration rhetoric.

whats good for GOP senate candidates in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and Arizona is not good for GOP house candidates in New Jersey, New York, and California.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27598

Posted
Posted

Hey man it's cool to make fun of a wounded veteran that spent time in the Hanoi Hilton, but you better not do it to one on MY SIDE. Hell, we can wish the old man to die and that right soon, but don't you fucking dare joke about MY GUY. 

Yeah, get a life. No holds barred. Obama can go high, that's fine for him but the rest of us well we might kick you squarely in the balls. 

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deac_tracy

deac_tracy 516

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Texas 2nd (Crenshaw/ Litton race) may be the worst gerrymandered district in the state if not the country

lossless-page1-800px-Texas_US_Congressio

It only exists to crack some of the inner loop liberals but tying them in with the NW and NE deep red conservatives.  At some level the district will most likely look very different by 2022.  

I think Texas 35th has got it beat.

Texas US Congressional District 35 (since 2013).tif

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/04/trump-2018-elections-midterms-republicans-immigration-960748

Trump causing problems for house GOP because of his immigration rhetoric.

whats good for GOP senate candidates in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and Arizona is not good for GOP house candidates in New Jersey, New York, and California.

His focus is on the Senate.  Nothing more but if the GOP keeps the House, icing on the cake.  JUDGES, JUDGES, JUDGES.   

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13509

Posted
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

I'd like to see the % of voters 18-39 in the 2016 general election in Texas.

Not exactly but close:

Texas citizens ages 18-34 (2016):  

31% of the population 

25% of the registered voters

23% of the voters

(according to the Census website:  https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html  Table 4c)

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Pancho

Pancho 44756

Posted
Posted
Just now, NameWithHeld said:

Yeah that’s it.  To quote Anvil Joe Biden; “we want you back in chains”

For fucks sake   

 

 

 

Oh no doubt you and other republicans/conservatives definitely do want to put minorities in their “place.” That’s pretty open and clear in 2018. Congrats.

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Texas73

Texas73 420

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not exactly but close:

Texas citizens ages 18-34 (2016):  

31% of the population 

25% of the registered voters

23% of the voters

(according to the Census website:  https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html  Table 4c)

So in 2016, Texans age 18-34 made up 23% of the voters and in 2018 Texans age 18-39 make up 24% of the voters.

Doesn't make me think this is that good for Beto.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13509

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

So in 2016, Texans age 18-34 made up 23% of the voters and in 2018 Texans age 18-39 make up 24% of the voters.

Doesn't make me think this is that good for Beto.

I don't know where any 2018 age breakdown numbers are coming from.  The counties and state don't seem to be reporting it.   Maybe some groups are running exit polls.  

When the NY Times ran their live poll of Texas race last month, the following was their goal, which also means they adjusted their results to it:

18-29:  9%

30-64: 59%

65+:  31%

Cruz won that poll, 51-43.

 

CNN had the following breakdown on Thursday for Texas early voting:

18-29:  10.7%

30-64: 55.2%

65+: 29%

unknown: 5%

(Once again who knows where this #s are coming from.)

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

Oh no doubt you and other republicans/conservatives definitely do want to put minorities in their “place.” That’s pretty open and clear in 2018. Congrats.

You really believe that?  If you do then I feel sorry for you because your life must suck. So you can’t accomplish anything in life due to Republicans/Conservatives keeping you in your place?   Wow. 

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20934

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

You really believe that?  If you do then I feel sorry for you because your life must suck. So you can’t accomplish anything in life due to Republicans/Conservatives keeping you in your place?   Wow. 

that doesn't follow, logically.  you'd know that if you weren't a fucking idiot

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Pancho

Pancho 44756

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

You really believe that?  If you do then I feel sorry for you because your life must suck. So you can’t accomplish anything in life due to Republicans/Conservatives keeping you in your place?   Wow. 

This has 0 logic and reasoning which is typical for y’all. 

 

My life is great. My claim still stands that you and other republicans/conservatives want to put minorities in their place as there’s evidence (and a warrant if I want to go that far) of this happening today, November 4th, in the year 2018.

 

That’s how argumentation works.

 

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

This has 0 logic and reasoning which is typical for y’all. 

 

My life is great. My claim still stands that you and other republicans/conservatives want to put minorities in their place as there’s evidence (and a warrant if I want to go that far) of this happening today, November 4th, in the year 2018.

 

That’s how argumentation works.

 

I’m waiting for that evidence. 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27598

Posted
Posted

It isn’t in Robert Mueller.
It isn’t in rallies and protests and petitions.
It’s isn’t in praying for their mass re-conversion back to something resembling Jesus.

The sole option we have to save ourselves and generations of diverse, decent, vital human beings—is for all of us; progressive Christians and humanists and Muslims and Atheists and Jews and Agnostics to vote in November; in vast numbers, in unwavering unity, and unreservedly Blue

https://johnpavlovitz.com/2018/10/23/conservative-white-evangelicals-need-to-be-stopped/

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't know where any 2018 age breakdown numbers are coming from.  The counties and state don't seem to be reporting it.   Maybe some groups are running exit polls.  

When the NY Times ran their live poll of Texas race last month, the following was their goal, which also means they adjusted their results to it:

18-29:  9%

30-64: 59%

65+:  31%

Cruz won that poll, 51-43.

 

CNN had the following breakdown on Thursday for Texas early voting:

18-29:  10.7%

30-64: 55.2%

65+: 29%

unknown: 5%

(Once again who knows where this #s are coming from.)

Here is a tweet with some R numbers(not sure what the D numbers are) from a Republican about voters in 2018 early vote cumulative, if I am reading it right and I don't know his methodology to get them, FWIW:

Anyone have the D numbers to compare?

Edited by zork
unless he is implying that the + in each case is more than the Dem total?
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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22694

Posted
Posted
Here is a tweet with some R numbers(not sure what the D numbers are) from a Republican about voters in 2018 early vote cumulative, if I am reading it right and I don't know his methodology to get them, FWIW:

Anyone have the D numbers to compare?

There’s a reason Harlan Hill doesn’t list his methodology: it’s all bullshit. He’s the white millennial nerd version of Candace Owens. His entire existence is centered around making Republicans happy on Twitter.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27598

Posted
Posted

“If this is what you have, McSally, she's withstood it,” Diaz said.

If Sinema wins, her key will have been a relentless focus on health care and education. Health care is a weak point for McSally, who has sought to downplay her vote for the House GOP Obamacare repeal bill that would have stripped the health care law’s popular protections for those with preexisting conditions.

---

Justin Unga, Arizona state director for the LGBTQ advocacy group Human Rights Campaign, said that he’s “not personally concerned about” Sinema’s shift to the right in the House.

“She wants to represent the entire electorate, and the only way she can do that is by working with the other side of the aisle,” Unga said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/04/arizona-senate-2018-election-midterms-sinema-mcsally-960751

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Mole

Mole 4330

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Celery Man said:

Legacy will be either the destruction of the country or the destruction of the GOP

Legacy will be destruction of objective reality.

As far as racism goes, I’m not sure what you call systematically purging minority voters from the rolls and then accusing your black opponent of hacking the election, but it’s not not racism.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13509

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

There’s a reason Harlan Hill doesn’t list his methodology: it’s all bullshit. He’s the white millennial nerd version of Candace Owens. His entire existence is centered around making Republicans happy on Twitter.

Unless you have resources available to perform exit polls, the best you do is take early voting #s and estimate who is voting and for which candidate by using previous years’ results.  And while you wouldn’t be completely wrong on any one county, a few wrong assumptions across the board could lead to big mistakes.  

Maybe Cruz is up 700k votes (maybe 1m) but I also notice the Harlan hill notes GOP is up.  He doesn’t say Cruz.    I personally know of a few gop voters that voted gop except for Cruz.     

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27598

Posted
Posted

And to disregard my last post...

That's a slimmer edge than the party held in CNN's final poll before the 2006 midterm elections and similar to the Republicans' 10-point advantage just before the 2010 midterms.

---

 

Trump's approval rating in the poll stands at 39% overall, with 55% disapproving, slightly worse than in early October, when 41% approved of his performance and 52% disapproved.

That is the worst pre-election approval rating for any president approaching their first midterm election in polling dating back to Eisenhower.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/05/politics/cnn-poll-midterms-democrats-advantage/index.html

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