2018 - Elections and Trends

[cactusflinthead 27593]

 

[cactusflinthead 27593]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

It says a lot about Fox News in that they hide behind their shaky definition that Hannity isn’t a journalist or apart of their News team.   I assume that he and Fox do not state that at the beginning of his broadcast. 

Hannity is that character from V for Vendetta that is the mouthpiece of the administration. 

[Aqua Buddha 14485]

If both Steve King and Ted Cruz lose, it will be a glorious day for America.

[NameWithHeld 101]

35 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

You do realize that Hannity and Limbaugh are commentators and the HP guy/gal is supposedly a reporter.  Typical misinformation. Apples and kumquats. 

 

If if there anyone is a cheerleader and reporter it’s the MSM talking heads/reporters

Edited November 5, 2018 by NameWithHeld
Extra info

[G650 13982]

Well fellas, it was a good thread while it lasted.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

36 hours to go.

[cactusflinthead 27593]

Hi there! 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

7 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

You do realize that Hannity and Limbaugh are commentators and the HP guy/gal is supposedly a reporter.  Typical misinformation. Apples and kumquats. 

 

If if there anyone is a cheerleader and reporter it’s the MSM talking heads/reporters

Yep.  I recall the Bill Clinton/Tom Brokaw rallies like it was yesterday.   

[Js1 85050]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yep.  I recall the Bill Clinton/Tom Brokaw rallies like it was yesterday.   

Glad Swam made it over so we can laugh at his stupid opinions with no factual evidence behind them. 

[G650 13982]

Just now, Js1 said:

Glad Swam made it over

Ban user.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yep.  I recall the Bill Clinton/Tom Brokaw rallies like it was yesterday.   

The Maddow/Obama rallies are spectacular 

[cactusflinthead 27593]

I dunno man. The Nate Silver/Ojeda rally was a strange partnership. 

[NameWithHeld 101]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yep.  I recall the Bill Clinton/Tom Brokaw rallies like it was yesterday.   

I’m glad to see you know the difference between a commentator and reporter. Keep that ignorance going. 

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The Maddow/Obama rallies are spectacular 

Maddow shills for dems with the best of them

 

5 minutes ago, G650 said:

Ban user.

Nice to see liberal tolerance in action

Btw I’m not swam   

 

[cactusflinthead 27593]

 

[cactusflinthead 27593]

Hey! He learned how to multiquote!

Progress.

[G650 13982]

8 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Nice to see liberal tolerance in action

 

 

 

John Warner is my all time politician, but okay.

[Js1 85050]

JFC, this one is worse than the Gillium one!

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/Racist-magical-Negro-robo-call-from-Oprah-13361839.php?utm_campaign=facebook-premium&utm_source=CMS+Sharing+Button&utm_medium=social

Quote

"This is the magical Negro Oprah Winfrey asking you to make my fellow Negress Stacey Abrams the governor of Georgia," the robo-call begins, before spewing nearly 60 seconds of racism coupled with a dash of anti-Semitism. Georgians began hearing the call last week, according to the Hill.

 

[cactusflinthead 27593]

More than 139,000 people cast ballots in 12 days of early voting that ended Friday, an increase of more than 100,000 from the last midterm election in 2014. It was the second-largest early voting turnout in El Paso history, behind only the 2016 presidential election.

El Paso’s early voting total was up 262 percent over 2014, by far the largest increase among the state’s most populous counties.

https://www.kvia.com/news/el-paso/what-el-pasos-record-early-voting-could-mean-for-tuesdays-election-contests/843667635

[NameWithHeld 101]

22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

JFC, this one is worse than the Gillium one!

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/Racist-magical-Negro-robo-call-from-Oprah-13361839.php?utm_campaign=facebook-premium&utm_source=CMS+Sharing+Button&utm_medium=social

 

That’s fucking disgusting.   That doesn't represent the GOP.  Unfortunately you can’t pick your followers the same way you can’t pick your family.  

[Mole 4318]

7 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

That doesn't represent the GOP.

How many black Georgia voters have been purged by the guy running for governor?

[UTDD 362]

As much as Texas has some interesting drama on a minor level. I think Georgia and Florida's elections are so much more nasty and crazy on a number of levels.  I am very curious how that turns out for both states.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Just now, UTDD said:

As much as Texas has some interesting drama on a minor level. I think Georgia and Florida's elections are so much more nasty and crazy on a number of levels.  I am very curious how that turns out for both states.

the confederacy is shameless.  in germany they were able to squash out those attitudes almost immediately after wwii.  we still hold on to ours 150 years later.

[Tuco 5076]

That’s fucking disgusting.   That doesn't represent the GOP.  Unfortunately you can’t pick your followers the same way you can’t pick your family.  

You can’t pick them. You can merely blow that dog whistle as loudly as possible and then feign surprise when they arrive.

[UTDD 362]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

the confederacy is shameless.  in germany they were able to squash out those attitudes almost immediately after wwii.  we still hold on to ours 150 years later.

The ugly truth is that there are still a lot of stupid people in America.  At least now it is mostly harder to be so blatant about it, but it's still out there for sure.

[Js1 85050]

Just now, Tuco said:

You can’t pick them. You can merely blow that dog whistle as loudly as possible and then feign surprise when they arrive.

You may not be able to pick your followers, but you sure as hell decide who you associate with.  And the GOP has chosen racists. A lot of racists.

Also, just because your family is racist, doesn't mean you have some "gun to your head" situation where you have to associate with them.  Or support them.  Look at Adam Laxalt's family telling everyone in Nevada he is not a good choice and don't vote for him.  Or Paul Gosar in Arizona.

[gmr548 16460]

That’s fucking disgusting.   That doesn't represent the GOP.  Unfortunately you can’t pick your followers the same way you can’t pick your family.  

Lol. Yep. White supremacists love us - what can ya do, amirite?

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[cactusflinthead 27593]

In five other races shifted by Cook, the GOP is still favored to win. But the shift shows the races are closer than expected and points to the large number of seats the GOP is being forced to defend.

Three races - in Texas's 6th and 10th Congressional Districts and in West Virginia's 2nd - moved from solid Republican to likely Republican. Two other races - Florida's 25th and 6th districts, went from likely Republican to leaning Republican.

 

[RomaVicta 29747]

26 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

the confederacy is shameless.  in germany they were able to squash out those attitudes almost immediately after wwii.  we still hold on to ours 150 years later.

The war warn't about your nigras slavin' in the fields. That's the best they ever had it. No sir. The war was State's Rights. Yessir. 

And the flag? That's just state pride. Lotta men fought for them State's Rights. That's what we proud of, them soldiers fightin' for the State's Rights. Leave our heritage be. Ain't no racism heah, now. 

Git on off my porch before I set the dogs on ya.

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Theory:  there was a systematic polling error in 2016 because of the 'shy Trump supporter.'  

That won't repeat itself here because they are all proudly and vocally racist now that it has been normalized.  The polls will turn out to be more accurate this time.

[Js1 85050]

Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Theory:  there was a systematic polling error in 2016 because of the 'shy Trump supporter.'  

That won't repeat itself here because they are all proudly and vocally racist now that it has been normalized.  The polls will turn out to be more accurate this time.

I think there's going to be an interesting dynamic at play.

Either:

A) polls were right - validated. 2016 was an aberration.

B) polls were wrong because:

-B1:  non-responsiveness of group X led to being undersampled and underreported (X could be shy Trump supporters, or young voters, or Latinos, etc.)
-B2: turnout models were complete crapola

I like Monmouth and NYT/Siena because they report top lnes but if you dig, they actually have various scenarios for different turnout models. For instance:

NYT/Siena top line was Cruz 51-43 but there's 7 different turnout models ranging from Cruz +15 (2014 turnout) to Beto +3 ("people who say they are certain to vote") where the average is Cruz +6.57 which is in line with a lot of expectations.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

13 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Theory:  there was a systematic polling error in 2016 because of the 'shy Trump supporter.'  

That won't repeat itself here because they are all proudly and vocally racist now that it has been normalized.  The polls will turn out to be more accurate this time.

I think the polls will be more off this time for the same reason they were off in 2016.

The electorate was expanded enough to make a statistically significant error in some of the polling numbers.

In 2016, Trump brought in a bunch of new voters/old voters that don’t normally vote.  This didn’t happen on Hillary’s side.  That Trump growth wasn’t really detectable in traditional polling methods.

Because Trump won, it’s been working the other way for the past 20 months.  The “resistance” has been quietly mobilizing to get more voters while Trump has only focused on keeping the people that voted for him instead of expanding his base.

Edited November 5, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[usmc0331horn 934]

1 hour ago, NameWithHeld said:

That’s fucking disgusting.   That doesn't represent the GOP.  Unfortunately you can’t pick your followers the same way you can’t pick your family.  

Put "That doesn't represent the GOP" on y'alls tombstones.

[Js1 85050]

4 minutes ago, usmc0331horn said:

Put "That doesn't represent the GOP" on y'alls tombstones.

"That doesn't represent the GOP"

*Mega racist robo-calls using the terms "negro" and "negress" only and consistently happens to black Democrats running in Southern states

Hmmm, gonna check the math on this one.....

[Bateshorn 9882]

34 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

The war warn't about your nigras slavin' in the fields. That's the best they ever had it. No sir. The war was State's Rights. Yessir. 

And the flag? That's just state pride. Lotta men fought for them State's Rights. That's what we proud of, them soldiers fightin' for the State's Rights. Leave our heritage be. Ain't no racism heah, now. 

Git on off my porch before I set the dogs on ya.

 

I'm reading What Hath God Wrought right now, and this element has been a core of a certain element of American society since the revolution.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, NameWithHeld said:

That’s fucking disgusting.   That doesn't represent the GOP.  Unfortunately you can’t pick your followers the same way you can’t pick your family.  

It’s fully representative of trumps version of the GOP

[Biff Tannen 45473]

Why do so many people apparently wait until actual Election Day to vote?  I can't imagine putting myself in that position if I had the option to vote early.

[G650 13982]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why do so many people apparently wait until actual Election Day to vote?  I can't imagine putting myself in that position if I had the option to vote early.

We don't have the option.

[Js1 85050]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why do so many people apparently wait until actual Election Day to vote?  I can't imagine putting myself in that position if I had the option to vote early.

I assume some combo of "THIS DAY IS SACRED" and/or you're guaranteed to vote a hell of a lot closer to home than Early Voting.  My actual precinct voting place is about 3 minutes from my house.  I drove ~4 miles to vote early.

[A Cellar Honker 19]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

You may not be able to pick your followers, but you sure as hell decide who you associate with.  And the GOP has chosen racists. A lot of racists.

Also, just because your family is racist, doesn't mean you have some "gun to your head" situation where you have to associate with them.  Or support them.  Look at Adam Laxalt's family telling everyone in Nevada he is not a good choice and don't vote for him.  Or Paul Gosar in Arizona.

And your party is chock full of anti-semites yet you continue to associate with it.

[Biff Tannen 45473]

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

We don't have the option.

Yeah I get that some states don't, which is stupid, but in Texas specifically I can't imagine waiting until the actual day.

[Js1 85050]

Just now, A Cellar Honker said:

And your party is chock full of anti-semites yet you continue to associate with it.

I associate with the GOP?  Didn't one of your Congressmen come out and say all Jews need to become Christians for there to be peace in the Middle East?

[GSU&UT 1798]

Yeah a ton of people wait until election day because a lot of time the only early voting place is far away and it's just much easier to go to some place that is walkable. I wouldn't because if you have some sort of screw up voting early gives you time to fix that.

[Js1 85050]

Just now, GSU&UT said:

Yeah a ton of people wait until election day because a lot of time the only early voting place is far away and it's just much easier to go to some place that is walkable. I wouldn't because if you have some sort of screw up voting early gives you time to fix that.

I'd also hazard a number of them are just more..."comfortable" voting with their neighbors than with...."strangers."

[GSU&UT 1798]

2 minutes ago, A Cellar Honker said:

And your party is chock full of anti-semites yet you continue to associate with it.

Ahh the old Liberals are the racists/antisemitic because they aren't fully in love with Israel.

[Fozzz 152]

Just now, A Cellar Honker said:

And your party is chock full of anti-semites yet you continue to associate with it.

Dems really need to think about removing Farrakhan as head of the DNC.  

[GSU&UT 1798]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I'd also hazard a number of them are just more..."comfortable" voting with their neighbors than with...."strangers."

That too, can't get out of my safespace by coming into contact with young hipsters and blacks.

For this election there have been huge lines for many of the days in counties where there was only one early voting location, a minimum of an hour wait. I can definitely agree with not dealing with that and waiting until election day.

[immortal13 4059]

8 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why do so many people apparently wait until actual Election Day to vote?  I can't imagine putting myself in that position if I had the option to vote early.

To make you angry

[BrickHorn 18172]

1 hour ago, NameWithHeld said:

That’s fucking disgusting.   That doesn't represent the GOP.  Unfortunately you can’t pick your followers the same way you can’t pick your family.  

Bullshit.  Leaders are supposed to lead.  That’s no longer the GOP way.  Rather than lead the country toward a brighter future, the GOP has resigned itself to indulging the worst paranoid fantasies of its moron base.  The GOP is now the enabler, helping its friends find a vein for a shot of ignorance and vitriol.  That shit might feel good now.  But no nation has ever been made better off by the kind of divisive, idiotic shit the GOP currently peddles to its rage-junkie base.  It will rot this great nation, and the GOP’s choice to enable rather than lead will be to blame.  

tl;dr: be a man and take responsibility for the bullshit your party condones.

[immortal13 4059]

1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

Bullshit.  Leaders are supposed to lead.  That’s no longer the GOP way.  Rather than lead the country toward a brighter future, the GOP has resigned itself to indulging the worst paranoid fantasies of its moron base.  The GOP is now the enabler, helping its friends find a vein for a shot of ignorance and vitriol.  That shit might feel good now.  But no nation has ever been made better off by the kind of divisive, idiotic shit the GOP currently peddles to its rage-junkie base.  It will rot this great nation, and the GOP’s choice to enable rather than lead will be to blame.  

tl;dr: be a man and take responsibility for the bullshit your party condones.

Lulz