Bill Flores is Bailing

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https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/another-texas-republican-rep-bill-flores-wont-run-for-re-election/

Quote

Rep. Bill Flores becomes the latest Texas Congressman to announce he will not run for re-election 

Flores is a Republican who represents Texas’ 17th Congressional District, which stretches from parts of Austin to Waco and College Station. He serves on the House Budget committee and the Energy and Commerce committee.

Flores said in a statement that when he first announced he was running in 2009, he committed to run for six or fewer terms.

Awful lot of Republicans in Texas are getting cold feet, and/or don’t want the loss on their resumes.  

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

it really sounds like they've got numbers we're not yet seeing and apparently want no part of it.

[Born to Run 6598]

The current tea party bullshit and response to gun violence with less gun restrictions and faster death is probably not polling too well anywhere that isn't white and rural.

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22 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

it really sounds like they've got numbers we're not yet seeing and apparently want no part of it.

Either the polls are that bad, or the fundraising is.  Or both.  

Could be some of the bigger donors are bailing on these guys for one reason or another, and the smaller donors aren’t coming thorough.  Maybe Trump is sucking up all of the the oxygen in the room.   Gotta be easier for Dems to raise funds these days.  

Still, Waco and Collie Station should be enough to carry Flores through.  

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

As has been stated a lot, it's no fun to be in the minority party.  Add in having to back an idiot windbag and going back into the private sector may seem more palatable.  

I doubt this one flip but how many seats do folks think could possibly flip in 20'?

 

Edited September 4, 2019 by Patrick Bateman

[Js1 87009]

Just now, Patrick Bateman said:

As has been stated a lot, it's no fun to be in the minority house.  Add in having to back an idiot windbag and going back into the private sector may seem more palatable.  

I doubt this one flip but how many seats do folks think could possibly flip in 20'?

 

Overall?

Open seats: GA-7, TX-22 and TX-24, TX-23
Needing to beat incumbents: TX-10, TX-21, TX-31, MI-3, PA-10, PA-01, NE-2, IL-13

But for all those flips, potential flips, you still have to do deal with quite a few seats that could flip back from 18:  GA-6, IA-1/2/3, ME-2, MI-8, NJ-3, NY-11, NY-19, NY-22, OK-5, SC-1, UT-4, MN-7, MN-2

I think Democrats may come out of it +3 or 4 (at the moment). I don't see any major changes in the House makeup unless way more incumbents in swing districts call it quits. 

[atomheartbevo 90557]

3 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

As has been stated a lot, it's no fun to be in the minority party.  Add in having to back an idiot windbag and going back into the private sector may seem more palatable.  

I doubt this one flip but how many seats do folks think could possibly flip in 20'?

 

It should't flip, because Waco and Collie Station, but still, you'd think somebody would have told him to stick around and announce he's retiring for 2022.  The optics are pretty bad.  How long until Trump blasts him on twitter?

[SimonBolivar 11040]

Non Hispanic whites are only 45.8% of Waco (66.6% in 1980) so I'm not sure how much of a sure thing the city is with R's. Chet Edwards (D) was the rep for the city before Flores. Flores cleaned up in '16 though with 60% of the vote so I doubt the spot is in that much danger.

 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2019 by SimonBolivar

[RayDog 682]

The district is 56% white 25% Latino and on 25% rural. If it wasn't so Aggie and the Latino vote so suppressed it could be competitive.

Is their a popular Democratic Latino Aggie who could run?

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

1 hour ago, RayDog said:

The district is 56% white 25% Latino and on 25% rural. If it wasn't so Aggie and the Latino vote so suppressed it could be competitive.

Is their a popular Democratic Latino Aggie who could run?

I have a friend who works for the League of Women Voters and she has been working hard to get folks registered. No idea who would run, though.

[Js1 87009]

2 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

Non Hispanic whites are only 45.8% of Waco (66.6% in 1980) so I'm not sure how much of a sure thing the city is with R's. Chet Edwards (D) was the rep for the city before Flores. Flores cleaned up in '16 though with 60% of the vote so I doubt the spot is in that much danger.

 

 

 

The ebb and flow is interesting. It got redder from 08 to 14 (Chet lost in 2010) and then has gotten bluer in 16 to 18. Probably Bc it has done Travis county suburbs and the suburbs are now hostile to Republicans. 

[Ghost of LL 15674]

There is really something weird going on with Texas. It has a real disproportionate number of retirements. And there’s no apparent pattern or underlying cause. Flores’ district is nothing like Hurd’s. It’s really just kind of weird.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[RayDog 682]

I saw something earlier that Chip Roy was non-committal when asked if he was running, so yes, something weird is happening.

[Js1 87009]

9 minutes ago, RayDog said:

I saw something earlier that Chip Roy was non-committal when asked if he was running, so yes, something weird is happening.

*GOP Reps check numbers in the suburbs after another mass shooting and Trump saying nothing will get done*

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

My hope is that they are seeing that Texas is going blue faster than expected and just don’t want to deal with the fallout of it. I also buy lotto tickets, which are worth about as much as my dreaming.

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36 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

There is really something weird going on with Texas. It has a real disproportionate number of retirements. And there’s no apparent pattern or underlying cause. Flores’ district is nothing like Hurd’s. It’s really just kind of weird.

On the one hand, being in the minority party sucks, on the other hand, when the Rs retook the House prior to all of this, I don't recall a bunch of Dems retiring around the same time frame.

Some of these guys are younger, and I use that term somewhat loosely,, and in theory, have a few decades left in politics, so I'm wondering if some are worried about the potential for an upset - you don't want an ugly loss/upset on your record if you have any kind of aspirations for elected office going forward.

It's definitely odd.

[cactusflinthead 27626]

7 hours ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

it really sounds like they've got numbers we're not yet seeing and apparently want no part of it.

This. 

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

Unlike dipshit states like Kentucky, New Yorker trump (get a rope) has never been all that popular in Texas, much less so now with all his antics and idiocy.

Sure Texas voted for him in 2016 because R, but with suburban soccer moms in grapevine now all buying their kids bulletproof backpacks, team R is gonna take a major hit in Texas and these guys know it, much better than we do. All the rural trump supporting idiots are gonna be outvoted fo sho, at least in this State. 

[RayDog 682]

There are so many Cook PVI R+9 and R+10 districts that look like tossups or even tilt/lean Democratic districts in Texas. Even the guys in R+12 and R+13 districts appear to be getting scarred.

The PVI is a trailing indicator since it factors in 2012 and 2016 and does not factor in the 6% drop in Boomer and older voters from 2016 to 2020, not to mention demographic changes during that time, and the awakening of non-voting Democrats. It looks like the Republican gerrymandering could backfire even worse than I ever imagined.

Flores won a PVI +12 district by 15.5%, which I suspect was due to support from Latinos. A white Trump GOPer might be looking at getting 51% of the vote in the 17th and eking out a 3 or 4 point win.I still don't see it going to the Democrats unless they find an exceptional candidate to run.

Here is the rep, district, margin in 2018, PVI, winning percentage in 2018, age on 2021 birthday if potentially retirement age.

Dan Crenshaw    TX-2    7.2%    R+11    Crenshaw 52.8%
Van Taylor    TX-3     10.0%    R+13    Taylor 54.2%
Ron Wright    TX-6    7.7%    R+9    Wright 53.1%, 68 in 2021
Michael McCaul    TX-10    4.3%    R+9    McCaul 51.1%
Open (Flores)    TX-17    15.5%    R+12    Flores 56.8%, 67 in 2021
Chip Roy    TX-21    2.8%    R+10    Roy 50.2%
Open (Olson)    TX-22    4.9%    R+10    Olson 51.4%
Open (Hurd)    TX-23    0.5%    R+1    Hurd 49.2%
Open (Marchant)    TX-24    3.2%    R+9    Marchant 51.6%, 70 in 2021
Roger Williams    TX-25    8.7%    R+11    Williams 53.5%, 72 in 2021
John Carter    TX-31    2.9%    R+10    Carter 50.6%, 80 in 2021

I should have included Cloud in the 27th. It is PVI R+13 but over 51% Latino.

Edited September 5, 2019 by RayDog

[High Plains Drifter 11163]

21 hours ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

it really sounds like they've got numbers we're not yet seeing and apparently want no part of it.

 

What sort of super secret polling that nobody else can see or find out for themselves do politicians have?

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

14 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

There is really something weird going on with Texas. It has a real disproportionate number of retirements. And there’s no apparent pattern or underlying cause. Flores’ district is nothing like Hurd’s. It’s really just kind of weird.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Texas also had a disproportionate number of former Democrats switch to Republican around Reagan.  We have no shortage of opportunists who would rather do anything win than have principles.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

11 hours ago, RayDog said:

There are so many Cook PVI R+9 and R+10 districts that look like tossups or even tilt/lean Democratic districts in Texas. Even the guys in R+12 and R+13 districts appear to be getting scarred.

The PVI is a trailing indicator since it factors in 2012 and 2016 and does not factor in the 6% drop in Boomer and older voters from 2016 to 2020, not to mention demographic changes during that time, and the awakening of non-voting Democrats. It looks like the Republican gerrymandering could backfire even worse than I ever imagined.

Flores won a PVI +12 district by 15.5%, which I suspect was due to support from Latinos. A white Trump GOPer might be looking at getting 51% of the vote in the 17th and eking out a 3 or 4 point win.I still don't see it going to the Democrats unless they find an exceptional candidate to run.

Here is the rep, district, margin in 2018, PVI, winning percentage in 2018, age on 2021 birthday if potentially retirement age.

Dan Crenshaw    TX-2    7.2%    R+11    Crenshaw 52.8%
Van Taylor    TX-3     10.0%    R+13    Taylor 54.2%
Ron Wright    TX-6    7.7%    R+9    Wright 53.1%, 68 in 2021
Michael McCaul    TX-10    4.3%    R+9    McCaul 51.1%
Open (Flores)    TX-17    15.5%    R+12    Flores 56.8%, 67 in 2021
Chip Roy    TX-21    2.8%    R+10    Roy 50.2%
Open (Olson)    TX-22    4.9%    R+10    Olson 51.4%
Open (Hurd)    TX-23    0.5%    R+1    Hurd 49.2%
Open (Marchant)    TX-24    3.2%    R+9    Marchant 51.6%, 70 in 2021
Roger Williams    TX-25    8.7%    R+11    Williams 53.5%, 72 in 2021
John Carter    TX-31    2.9%    R+10    Carter 50.6%, 80 in 2021

I should have included Cloud in the 27th. It is PVI R+13 but over 51% Latino.

College Station has a lot of retired Ags that return to the Mothership. There is a growing Hispanic population too. The voters only turn out in larger numbers for school board and big elections, same as everywhere else.

[Voldemort86 2259]

20 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Unlike dipshit states like Kentucky, New Yorker trump (get a rope) has never been all that popular in Texas, much less so now with all his antics and idiocy.

Sure Texas voted for him in 2016 because R, but with suburban soccer moms in grapevine now all buying their kids bulletproof backpacks, team R is gonna take a major hit in Texas and these guys know it, much better than we do. All the rural trump supporting idiots are gonna be outvoted fo sho, at least in this State. 

What’s going on in the back of my mind is this :

will these soccer moms in grapevine and similar places flip back when the next republican shows up who isn’t a serial liar, who isn’t a douchebag, who doesn’t lie every other sentence?

 

i hope they actually like voting democrat and we can make this state purple earlier than everyone expected. It has to go purple before it goes blue and Texas hasn’t officially gone purple in my opinion until the democrats win a big statewide race. We have a long streak of futility that we need to snap.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

I know some will flip back. In the suburbs there is a strong undercurrent of high school version 2.0 wherein things are not supposed to change. The queen bee shall always be the queen of the *yoga pod, the social circle, the bible study and the boutique and those who were invisible in high school (to her) should remain invisible. This means that if an R candidate can promise her that, she will flip faster than a cheerleader for the QB. There are a lot of folks who manage to grow out of that and become (what my spouse calls) regular adults, but I've certainly seen the other types, the PTO is rife with them and they will cuuuuut you if you don't know your place.

*no slight intended to those who actually practice yoga as opposed to yoga as fashion statement.

If I sound cynical, sorry. I hope you are correct and they like voting Democrat.

[atomheartbevo 90557]

8 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

What sort of super secret polling that nobody else can see or find out for themselves do politicians have?

In my, somewhat limited experience (campaign volunteer in the past, friends who work at such companies), it's some very expensive, very private polling, combined with some Big Data type of stuff - the more well-funded/larger offices/campaigns have an extremely good and very current idea of the demographics of their districts/states.

You know how you occasionally see those ads for "look up the records on your neighbor!" and you plug in your name or a friend's name, and it spits out some eerily-accurate information - fairly accurate ages, who they are related to, who they work for, etc., etc.?  Those larger polling/data outfits have information that is much more comprehensive and accurate.

They can see trends that we and simple polling can't see, because they are matching their internal polling with all of that data they've purchased.   Let's say you poll 250 people out of an area of 5,000 or more people.  A simple poll might say there were 100 Republicans and 90 Democrat-leaning and 60 undecideds/other.   You may say "it's only 250 people out of 5,000", but they have those numbers matched up tax records, area employers, social media, and every bit of purchasing history they can buy, so they can accurately extrapolate and they can see how many of those Rs and Ds are liable to flip and where the undecideds fall.

Or to put it another way: There's a reason why it only took 80,000 voters in three states to flip the election to Trump.  The campaign/marketing/polling/propaganda outfits knew exactly where they needed to focus their efforts.  Out of 130 million voters, they were targeting a few hundred thousand, and it paid off.

Edited September 6, 2019 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 90557]

I think that all of the 5 Rs in Texas, with maybe the exception being Flores, would stick around if they thought they had an easy victory next year.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

That's a little scary, that polling data. We had a block walker for a candidate knock on our door last year during a local election. She said we were "super voters(?)" because our household had voted in every election, including the local ones. I guess they were focusing their efforts where they thought it would make a difference. Makes sense I suppose but it's a little creepy.

[atomheartbevo 90557]

28 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

That's a little scary, that polling data. We had a block walker for a candidate knock on our door last year during a local election. She said we were "super voters(?)" because our household had voted in every election, including the local ones. I guess they were focusing their efforts where they thought it would make a difference. Makes sense I suppose but it's a little creepy.

Those loyalty cards you use at grocery stores?  Yeah, those stores track every single purchase you made going back years, which is why you seem to get coupons tailored just for you (to keep you coming back).  And some of those stores sell that data.   Facebook....there's a thread on here covering that.

They have profiles on just about every address, at least homes.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

2 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I know some will flip back. In the suburbs there is a strong undercurrent of high school version 2.0 wherein things are not supposed to change. The queen bee shall always be the queen of the *yoga pod, the social circle, the bible study and the boutique and those who were invisible in high school (to her) should remain invisible. This means that if an R candidate can promise her that, she will flip faster than a cheerleader for the QB. There are a lot of folks who manage to grow out of that and become (what my spouse calls) regular adults, but I've certainly seen the other types, the PTO is rife with them and they will cuuuuut you if you don't know your place.

*no slight intended to those who actually practice yoga as opposed to yoga as fashion statement.

If I sound cynical, sorry. I hope you are correct and they like voting Democrat.

The suburbs are becoming much more diverse and I think that will upend some of the social situations. It 100% will have an impact on the politics. It’s a big reason why my western wilco district went from reliably red to having a blue state rep. That trend is just heating up and will hopefully completely trash the republican gerrymandering. It’s only a matter of how fast that will happen. Raydog seems to think 2020 will be a good year for the Dems and has stats to support it. I say 2024 and nothing but cynicism to hang my hat on.

[bolverk 30248]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Those loyalty cards you use at grocery stores?  Yeah, those stores track every single purchase you made going back years, which is why you seem to get coupons tailored just for you (to keep you coming back).  And some of those stores sell that data.   Facebook....there's a thread on here covering that.

They have profiles on just about every address, at least homes.

Yep. There are whole companies that aggregate and sort these data to profile the population in a comprehensive manner. ESRI is just one example.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

I knew the grocery store cards were tracking us because we have a child with a frozen yogurt bar addiction and those things get pricey. When they weren't on sale and we didn't buy them, the register kept spitting out coupons to tempt us, lol.

@Larry T. Spider, when you say the suburbs are becoming more diverse, are you referring to Texas specifically or nationwide? I still see a lot of the 'Women for Trump' types.

[Js1 87009]

8 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I knew the grocery store cards were tracking us because we have a child with a frozen yogurt bar addiction and those things get pricey. When they weren't on sale and we didn't buy them, the register kept spitting out coupons to tempt us, lol.

@Larry T. Spider, when you say the suburbs are becoming more diverse, are you referring to Texas specifically or nationwide? I still see a lot of the 'Women for Trump' types.

Yea, but those are really Aggy-ish suburbs. Looking at you, north/northwest Harris County. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

I haven't delved into the actual factual real-time demographics. San Antonio, Austin, I could see. But, Plano, McKinney, Katy, Montgomery County and the Woodlands, Frisco? Amarillo is a somewhat diverse city, but Canyon is not.

I was at a school board meeting about 8 years ago where we heard from a speaker who studies demographics on different levels. He may have been from Rice? Can't recall. But he discussed the growing changing demographics. How schools can address the needs of diverse student bodies, etc. What I saw were a number of parents pretty much determined to go back to their enclaves and ward off the "invasion." There was no 'rising tide lifts all boats' here; it was more of 'hey kid, I hope you know how to swim.'

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

37 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I knew the grocery store cards were tracking us because we have a child with a frozen yogurt bar addiction and those things get pricey. When they weren't on sale and we didn't buy them, the register kept spitting out coupons to tempt us, lol.

@Larry T. Spider, when you say the suburbs are becoming more diverse, are you referring to Texas specifically or nationwide? I still see a lot of the 'Women for Trump' types.

Lulz, my son ate frozen gogurt like it was going out of style for a year or two.  

[Pescado_Rojo 19567]

30 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I haven't delved into the actual factual real-time demographics. San Antonio, Austin, I could see. But, Plano, McKinney, Katy, Montgomery County and the Woodlands, Frisco? Amarillo is a somewhat diverse city, but Canyon is not.

I was at a school board meeting about 8 years ago where we heard from a speaker who studies demographics on different levels. He may have been from Rice? Can't recall. But he discussed the growing changing demographics. How schools can address the needs of diverse student bodies, etc. What I saw were a number of parents pretty much determined to go back to their enclaves and ward off the "invasion." There was no 'rising tide lifts all boats' here; it was more of 'hey kid, I hope you know how to swim.'

A lot of them will just keep moving to stay with "their kind". My neighborhood in WilCo has seen a large influx of Indians the past few years. I was at a neighborhood get together a couple months back, and some people were complaining about it and talking about moving. Seems like small acreage lots in Liberty Hill and north of Lake Georgetown are the preferred destinations right now. Maybe all the Chads and Beckys moving around will break the gerrymander even faster... 

[atomheartbevo 90557]

23 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

A lot of them will just keep moving to stay with "their kind". My neighborhood in WilCo has seen a large influx of Indians the past few years. I was at a neighborhood get together a couple months back, and some people were complaining about it and talking about moving. Seems like small acreage lots in Liberty Hill and north of Lake Georgetown are the preferred destinations right now. Maybe all the Chads and Beckys moving around will break the gerrymander even faster... 

Half of Fort Bend County probably moved to Montgomery County.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4999]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned here is the potential for parties to shift. If the Republican party gets a beat down, their platform will likely shift in key areas designed to bring those voters back to the fold. We have already seen it with the Republican Party of Texas' stance on marijuana. They now support decriminalization, where they previously supported total prohibition. I think the nature of the two party system brings about a near equilibrium with policies from both sides shifting to keep more of a balance. Maybe not so much on the local level, but on the national level for sure.

[Voldemort86 2259]

12 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

One thing I haven't seen mentioned here is the potential for parties to shift. If the Republican party gets a beat down, their platform will likely shift in key areas designed to bring those voters back to the fold. We have already seen it with the Republican Party of Texas' stance on marijuana. They now support decriminalization, where they previously supported total prohibition. I think the nature of the two party system brings about a near equilibrium with policies from both sides shifting to keep more of a balance. Maybe not so much on the local level, but on the national level for sure.

The Texas Republican Party SUPPOSEDLY supports decriminalization, but they had a chance in the last legislative session to prove it and they choked in maddening fashion. 

 

Fucking losers.