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Texas Recruiting Notes 2023: Strippers, Monkeys, and 5-Stars

Machinator

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Speedway

Speedway 152

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3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

I've lost money every year on betting the over in Texas win totals, heck I think since Mack's last two years?  

If Texas beats Baylor I think they will participate in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl in Memphis to play an "also ran" SEC team.  If Texas loses to Baylor then its the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix to play an "also ran" B1G team.

Not including a bowl game outcome in your wager almost assuredly makes taking the under @7.5 a sure bet. Even if you include a bowl game outcome in the wager you are only getting even money odds for the over.  Not a very good bet at all.

 

 

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Red Five

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18 minutes ago, Speedway said:

If Texas beats Baylor I think they will participate in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl in Memphis to play an "also ran" SEC team.  If Texas loses to Baylor then its the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix to play an "also ran" B1G team.

A lot on the line. I'm already nervous. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

Posted
Posted
You 7.5 number is interesting.
@ULM, UTSA, Iowa St, TCU, and @Kansas are all most likely wins. 5-0
Alabama, Oklahoma (Dallas), @Oklahoma St are all probable losses. 5-3
West Virginia and @Texas Tech are toss-ups so 6-4.
@Kansas St and Baylor are tougher toss-ups so probably 6-6 or may be 7-5.
History says Texas will lose one and win one they should not.  Either way Texas goes 7-5 or 6-6 in the regular season.
So, my inquiry about including a bowl outcome is germane to the wager if Texas beats either Kansas St or Baylor. Of course, if Texas loses to both, then a bowl game would not affect the 7.5 line.
Texas could get 8 wins if they beat either Kansas St or Baylor; and win a bowl game.
Hence your 7.5 being an interesting line.

I think the only three you can chalk up as W’s with 90% confidence are ULM, UTSA, and Kansas (lol).

Bama is obviously going to be a massacre. So we can be reasonably sure of 3-1 on a third of the schedule.

Given the extensive track record, there’s really no reason to believe Sark will do better than maybe a game above .500 on the remaining two thirds (5-3). That’s probably the ceiling, and .500 even (4-4) or a game below (3-5) represent the remaining share of overwhelmingly likely outcomes. So you get to 6-6 to 8-4. To me, 7.5 actually feels like a pretty good place to set the over/under.

Since you mentioned it as a likely win, I personally think ISU is a very high probability loss. Sark has not shown he can effectively scheme around that defense and it’s coming right off OU, which will probably be some wild shit, win or lose. I’d be very surprised if that was a win.
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closetohumping

closetohumping 17439

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30 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


I think the only three you can chalk up as W’s with 90% confidence are ULM, UTSA, and Kansas (lol).

Bama is obviously going to be a massacre. So we can be reasonably sure of 3-1 on a third of the schedule.

Given the extensive track record, there’s really no reason to believe Sark will do better than maybe a game above .500 on the remaining two thirds (5-3). That’s probably the ceiling, and .500 even (4-4) or a game below (3-5) represent the remaining share of overwhelmingly likely outcomes. So you get to 6-6 to 8-4. To me, 7.5 actually feels like a pretty good place to set the over/under.

Since you mentioned it as a likely win, I personally think ISU is a very high probability loss. Sark has not shown he can effectively scheme around that defense and it’s coming right off OU, which will probably be some wild shit, win or lose. I’d be very surprised if that was a win.

Now that I’m sober I’m not sure it’s is a guaranteed Dub.  Bets off

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Thatguy

Thatguy 8686

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Posted (edited)
On 4/20/2022 at 10:08 PM, texifornia said:

https://247sports.com/player/braylan-shelby-46115176/

  Braylan hasn't been participating in all the camps up until now. Once he runs for someone his stock is going through the roof. Glad Texas got in early. Older brother just got signed by the Rams as an Edge. Pops was an edge for Pig back when I was at Texas. Hope we get him. 23 offers so far.

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Speedway

Speedway 152

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


I think the only three you can chalk up as W’s with 90% confidence are ULM, UTSA, and Kansas (lol).

Bama is obviously going to be a massacre. So we can be reasonably sure of 3-1 on a third of the schedule.

Given the extensive track record, there’s really no reason to believe Sark will do better than maybe a game above .500 on the remaining two thirds (5-3). That’s probably the ceiling, and .500 even (4-4) or a game below (3-5) represent the remaining share of overwhelmingly likely outcomes. So you get to 6-6 to 8-4. To me, 7.5 actually feels like a pretty good place to set the over/under.

Since you mentioned it as a likely win, I personally think ISU is a very high probability loss. Sark has not shown he can effectively scheme around that defense and it’s coming right off OU, which will probably be some wild shit, win or lose. I’d be very surprised if that was a win.

gmr548,

Although I may differ with you on the outcome of specific games, we are in complete agreement on the overall record. 6-6 or 7-5 regular season is what it is going to be. 6-6 regular season probably gets Texas a B1G team they can beat in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, thus 7-6.  A regular season of 7-5 will get Texas an SEC team in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl which will probably beat Texas, thus 7-6.  Either way I agree the 7.5 line for the over /under is probably correct.

Basically I was saying the under @7.5 without including a bowl game outcome was a sure bet. The under @7.5 with a bowl game outcome is still a pretty fair bet. The over@7.5 with a bowl game outcome is no better than even money odds and thus not a very good bet at all.

 

 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62604

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, closetohumping said:

You and me right now.  7.5 wins.  Want some?

With me taking the under? I’m not placing a bet that’s worse than what I can get in Vegas, for starters.  Beyond that, I don’t want to bet against Texas this early. I’ll wait until they shit themselves and open 1-2 before doing that. 

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Sal

Sal 1088

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, gmr548 said:


I think the only three you can chalk up as W’s with 90% confidence are ULM, UTSA, and Kansas (lol).

Bama is obviously going to be a massacre. So we can be reasonably sure of 3-1 on a third of the schedule.

Given the extensive track record, there’s really no reason to believe Sark will do better than maybe a game above .500 on the remaining two thirds (5-3). That’s probably the ceiling, and .500 even (4-4) or a game below (3-5) represent the remaining share of overwhelmingly likely outcomes. So you get to 6-6 to 8-4. To me, 7.5 actually feels like a pretty good place to set the over/under.

Since you mentioned it as a likely win, I personally think ISU is a very high probability loss. Sark has not shown he can effectively scheme around that defense and it’s coming right off OU, which will probably be some wild shit, win or lose. I’d be very surprised if that was a win.

Why is UTSA 90% confidence? Traylor got them to 12 wins in his second year. With Sarkisian as our coach, I can't go higher than 75% for that game. 

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Sabalo

Sabalo 994

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Perhaps Immamac can put a pool together on the number of wins. $100.00 entry, 20 of which can go to Burnt Ends. Each person picks a win total. Going into the last  game of the season, all potential winners pick the score of the last game. Pay out five spots to those picking the closest score.

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Darth Tron

Darth Tron 1122

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Sabalo said:

Perhaps Immamac can put a pool together on the number of wins. $100.00 entry, 20 of which can go to Burnt Ends. Each person picks a win total. Going into the last  game of the season, all potential winners pick the score of the last game. Pay out five spots to those picking the closest score.

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

Posted
Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Sal said:

Why is UTSA 90% confidence? Traylor got them to 12 wins in his second year. With Sarkisian as our coach, I can't go higher than 75% for that game. 

The talent gap between a P5 and a non-top half of the AAC G5 is still immense. Remember how the worst Texas team since at least 2017 nonchalantly controlled a ULL team returning like 20 starters from a 10-1 2020 team? The same ULL that went 13-0 with a conference title and bowl win after losing to Texas? Similar situation with UTSA, I expect a similar result. Losing would be a fireable offense.

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TotallyLegit

TotallyLegit 3053

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45 minutes ago, Sabalo said:

Perhaps Immamac can put a pool together on the number of wins. $100.00 entry, 20 of which can go to Burnt Ends. Each person picks a win total. Going into the last  game of the season, all potential winners pick the score of the last game. Pay out five spots to those picking the closest score.

tumblr_ltnfw1XKuo1r4gei2o3_400.gifv

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

Posted
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1 hour ago, Sabalo said:

Perhaps Immamac can put a pool together on the number of wins. $100.00 entry, 20 of which can go to Burnt Ends. Each person picks a win total. Going into the last  game of the season, all potential winners pick the score of the last game. Pay out five spots to those picking the closest score.

I like this idea a lot. @Scipioand I sponsored a free cash giveaway for the NCAA tournament- this might be fun to do for the football season. 

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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 20343

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On 5/9/2022 at 6:10 PM, Bevo said:

But I am not sure Garrett Wilson would be his type either as he wasn't known as a speedster in high school. He did run a 4.38 at the combine though. And fuck Garrett Wilson.

Garrett Wilson can eat my shit. 

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