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Texas Recruiting Notes 2023: Strippers, Monkeys, and 5-Stars

Machinator

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ousux

ousux 5597

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I did not like that Gerry update. It looks like our entire class is pretty much based on Arch and Arch has a few family members pushing him to Georgia.  Fuck, we need to empty out our wallets. He is our future as I see it.
Wallet won't do it, we really need to not suck on the field next year, and jawja's QB play to take a step or two back..
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Vito Andolini

Vito Andolini 9126

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1 hour ago, ousux said:
15 hours ago, RaysBoomBoomRoom said:
Oh my, Tashard Choiceemoji7.png

Who will likely be hard to keep on staff after this season, hope he reels in some really big fish before he bolts for coordinator position somewhere.

I’ve always considered Marion the one more likely to jump sooner than later (he typically stays one year at a stop) and he’s been a coordinator before. Of course, both could be hard to retain, but I hope the combo of learning from Sark in a big city environment for more than competitive salaries will keep both Choice and Marion sated for awhile.

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

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Why are people already penciling in a loss against Oklahoma? 
Fuck that.  We're going to curb stomp those fuckstains.

Yeah, my expectations for the year are pretty low, but it isn’t like that program is in fantastic shape. Even last year’s abomination is a Texas team had three score second half lead on them. A loss wouldn’t surprise me but it’s not a year to write it off.
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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 39933

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Nahlin on Arch

What better way to enter the Arch Manning visit weekend than with a post that’s part recap, part sharing our thoughts and opinions. This template is a good delivery system for just that.

What we know

— Texas has been squarely in this recruitment since Steve Sarkisian was hired. While Sark’s reputation for offense and quarterback development is the driving force behind this recruitment, he is aided by the Manning family’s appreciation for the university stretching back decades.

— We nailed very early key aspects in this recruitment that have led us to this point — lack of interest in Ole Miss, Clemson falling off, Bama being passed by Georgia, and Texas still standing despite going 5-7 last season. The reasons Texas has outlasted everyone, save Georgia, are the reasons UT is still in it — the Mannings have a holistic approach rather than simply centered on football wins and losses. However, that isn’t to minimize the football component. The Mannings are very business oriented — which is another plus for Texas — but football is also business school for them.

— Of course winning is important, but a key reason for that is it creates stability. We will come back to stability, but the only reason this recruitment is ongoing is because Texas didn’t do enough on the field last season.

— An enduring legacy (at a third school) is another component to account for. We know it’s a factor, but what we don’t know is how much weight it carries.

— Arch is a well adjusted, normal teenager. He wants to blend in and be one of the guys. While there is a very bright spotlight that comes with being the quarterback at Texas, that is an aspect he’ll never be able to escape due to his last name. In that regard, it doesn’t matter where he goes. As a student, however, it is easier to blend in at UT (unless you grow a mullet and drive an Aston Martin). He already has a good feel for campus life and is comfortable due to having numerous friends at Texas. He wants to shoulder as little Big Man on Campus status as he can.

— Arch wants to be class leader but also wants to have a decent understanding of who he can help bring to UT. He has certainly put out feelers to Texas targets, but the same can be said of players Georgia is pursuing as well. His recruiting impact would be greater at Texas.

— There are a handful of quality prospects who would pick Texas to land Arch. We are not as familiar with recruits in the Southeast so buyer beware on that point.

What we think we know

— I think I personally misjudged the importance of the weekend. Though I believe Texas remains the team to beat, this isn’t a coming home party where it’s time to celebrate. This will be Sark’s last in-person chance to show how different the program is from last October/November.

— This is boiling down to the two different types of stability: Program stability at Georgia and offensive/development stability at Texas. If Arch selected Georgia, there would be uncertainty over what offensive minds he would play for. Current offensive coordinator Todd Monken is upwardly mobile and unlikely to be in Athens much longer.

— I think Bama is out. The only thing keeping me from declaring it a two-horse race is respect for Nick Saban. Can you ever really count him out? I mostly have at this point, but not 100% entirely.

— Sark receives praise from the football side of the Manning family, to include Archie, Peyton, and Eli. We heard this when Sark was hired and believe it to be true today, but we’re not sure if it extends to program management or is based more so on offensive acumen, development, and play calling.

— Depth charts about cancel each other out. If Arch selects Georgia, he would be in a three-way battle to start with Carson Beck and Brock Vandagriff, two talented players who will have waited their turn behind Stetson Bennett. If Quinn Ewers wins the job at Texas this season, he’s probably a two-and-out starter like CJ Stroud and Bryce Young. It’s likely Arch would redshirt at each school as he adjusts from high school to college.

What we’re unsure of

— How much influence does his father Cooper wield and what is his ultimate preference? We’ve all heard this decision is Arch’s to make, but when push comes to shove, as it will shortly, will that remain the case? This isn’t to say Cooper doesn’t prefer Texas, we just don’t know. He’s probably a good card player.

— Are there any other family concerns that carry weight?

— How much does legacy, and all that comes with it, mean? Is he a builder or a joiner? I think if he was purely a joiner he’d already be committed to Georgia or Alabama. But again, how much does it factor in on his decision?

— Are relationships on the UGA side as strong as the ones at UT? This question extends to relationships of all types, especially between the player and coaching staffs. We know Arch’s relationship is very strong with Sark and AJ Milwee.

— How will the trade-offs between the two types of stability shake out. That’s the key to the drill, as Sarkisian would say. If Manning chooses Georgia, assuming he eventually becomes the starter he’ll be drafted, but how ready will he be for the NFL? We very likely will have no idea who developed him. If Manning chooses Texas, assuming he eventually becomes the starter he’ll be drafted high and will likely be well prepared for the NFL…you know, assuming Sark is still the head coach.

— Finally, it’s impossible to know what we don’t know. Is there a key factor or factors we’re unaware of?

The 5-7 season aside, win or lose, I’m not sure what the Texas side could have done better in this recruitment.

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 21307

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Notes on Terrance Green and Gullette

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On3 Consensus 4-star defensive lineman Terrance Green is in Austin today and tomorrow for an unofficial visit. 

The 6-foot-5, 275-pounder is making the trip with his mother, and they will stay overnight to make it a two day unofficial visit before heading out to Los Angeles for an official visit to USC. The No. 113-ranked prospect in the On300 made an official visit to Michigan State last weekend. He is scheduled to be at Oregon later this month. 

The Longhorns are recruiting Green as defensive lineman, and there is a thought that the circle would rather him stay closer to home than head to the West Coast. Inside Texas is monitoring that part of the equation.

On3 Consensus 4-star linebacker/EDGE Derion Gullette made an official visit to Ohio State last weekend. The visit went very well as expected. Maybe more important is that the Oklahoma Sooners are now thought to be in the conversation with Texas and Texas A&M should a close to home decision eventually be made. The Sooners official visit went very well, and the new defensive minded staff has made headway with the 6-foot-3, 228-pound elite athlete. Texas will host Gullette on an official visit June 24-26. Gullette remains very high on the Texas staff relationships. Texas A&M is working to get Gullette to not make a summer decision, and make his official visit during the season (likely September). The Miami Hurricanes are also pushing for a visit. 

 

 

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Vito Andolini

Vito Andolini 9126

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I wonder what’s up with Gullette, Smoak’s a well connected guy so I typically trust what he says. Didn’t Gullette just run in the state track meet in the last couple months (I believe he’s 200m/sprint relays PLUS shot put and long jump 😯)?

Do kids get physicals on their visits? I wonder if Ohio State found something on the visit and recommended he get it checked out, and a problem was discovered. 

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 21307

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32 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Roach has a thread about Blake Purchase no longer visiting so I guess it's Vasek and Shelby for EDGE and after that who knows??

I'd consider Gullette an edge guy. And that Ashley Williams guy out of Louisiana is visiting (or has visited) and has good film. But yeah, other than that not sure who else is on the board. Maybe circle back around to Billy Walton or push for Brad Spence if you have to down the road.

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someguy

someguy 1508

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54 minutes ago, Vito Andolini said:

I wonder what’s up with Gullette, Smoak’s a well connected guy so I typically trust what he says. Didn’t Gullette just run in the state track meet in the last couple months (I believe he’s 200m/sprint relays PLUS shot put and long jump 😯)?

Do kids get physicals on their visits? I wonder if Ohio State found something on the visit and recommended he get it checked out, and a problem was discovered. 

they do not get physicals on their visits.

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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 20875

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IT Humidor:  Percentages on Official Visitors

Spoiler

By: Justin, Gerry, and Eric

This will probably be a two-parter with the latest on the team coming early afternoon (hopefully).

Percentages are a fun way to demonstrate how we individually view the absolute latest information. Here go.

QB, Arch Manning, New Orleans Newman
GH: 54.3%. This one has been broken down from every angle. Now it's time to getting down to where Arch wants to spend three or four years as a student. And how does that play into long term goals in life.
JW: 65%. Texas has done about as much as it could to put itself in the best possible position to land the nation’s top rated prospect. It’s time to close and watch this class 2023 take off.
EN: 70%. I had one Cigar tell me earlier in the week, “I’m still feeling good unless you’ve heard something new.” This was in response to me asking about the Georgia NIL bro. The takeaway there is he’s discounting Arch and family hanging out with Georgia people in Mexico. As previously stated, there are deep relationships on the Texas side so the feeling is that sort of cancels. Similar to Gerry, no matter what anyone tells me, that picture is hard to shake. However, I’ve been told by people who know more than me that I’m over-analyzing. Speaking of which…

Outside of @Geoff Eneman ’s diary, here’s the most comprehensive read on Arch.

WR, Mikal Harrison-Pilot, Temple
GH: 35%. Oklahoma sits in a good spot early. Texas needs to win some of the CenTex battles, and especially with Ian Reed off to Clemson and Colton Vasek looking at SWA Wanna Get Away fares.
JW: 35%. OU, Cal, and UH are UT’s main competition here, but it feels like a Red River Shootout battle. Texas has proximity, academics, and the best chance at Manning in its favor.
EN: 45%. He’s the best slot receiver Texas is recruiting and I like that he’s in town with Arch. OU is the team to beat heading into the weekend.

WR, Jaquaize Pettaway, Houston Langham Creek
GH: 48%. Oklahoma leads headed into the weekend. Pettaway’s two older brothers ended up staying in state after considering out of state options. Brennan Marion’s relationship, and Sarkisian showing Pettaway the multiple receivers can have big production is key this weekend.
JW: 50%. This is why Texas hired Brennan Marion; to snag guys like Ryan Niblett out of nowhere, and land talented pass-catchers inside the state. Bringing in Pettaway this weekend is solid strategy.
EN: 50%. I‘m with Gerry and Justin here: Marion’s ability to connect and build relationships is instrumental, but I also like UT’s chances to consensus build with Arch in town. That written, OU does lead heading into the weekend.

TE, Will Randle, New Orleans Newman
GH: My On3 RPM sits at 95%.
JW: Texas added one tight end this week. Another won’t hurt.
EN: 90%. Texas is in great shape for the Y-back, move-piece tight end.

DL, Sydir Mitchell, Oradell (N.J.) Bergen Catholic
GH: 30%. Bo Davis has Texas in the mix here. Georgia wants Mitchell. That has to be overcome even with there being an easier path to playing over the ball at Texas. Texas A&M is squarely in the mix as well. Miami and Auburn round out the five.
JW: 25%. Everyone is waiting to see if Georgia doesn’t get him. That’s when this recruitment becomes interesting.
EN: 30%. When I first saw his film it didn’t resonate with the ranking. He just looks and moves like someone Georgia would want. They should probably be taking one of these guys a cycle and they didn’t get one last year, so he’s at a premium.

DL, Hunter Osborne, Hewitt-Trussville, Ala.
GH: 35%. Clemson is the player to watch here prior to this weekend‘s visit. Osborne will also see Tennessee June 24-26. Florida remains in the picture. There’s more chatter about a Clemson vs. Texas decision if this weekend goes well.
JW: 30%. The Justice Finkley factor is probably worth 15% of it, but there’s familiarity with Texas and the staff. This weekend looms large.
EN: 45%. Often times a late offer stems from confidence in the ability to land a prospect if a staff goes all in. All in is happening this weekend. I like Bo Davis and Justice Finkley to make an impression. Finkley isn’t just a wallflower, he’s a young leader.

DL, My’Keil Gardner, Peoria (Ariz.) Liberty
GH: 25%. Gardner was a heavy lean to Oregon a few weeks ago. Now the Ducks may have others ahead of them. The door is open for Michigan. The Wolverines will win out if Oregon and Texas don’t push.
JW: 20%. Texas is taking swings, but Michigan and Oregon might be landing blows.
EN: 20%. Hard one to get a read on. The late move by Michigan is interesting given Texas profiles similarly.

LB, Raul Aguirre, Fayetteville (Ga.) Whitewater
GH: 1.69%. Up from 0%. Let’s chat about this one again later in June.
JW: 10%. Ask me on Monday.
EN: 10%. I’ll assume Bama, even on Monday.

DB, Jamel Johnson, Arlington Seguin
GH: 80%. Hitting the visit circuit will always drop the percentage with a committed prospect.
JW: 75%. Texas’ first pledge of the 2023 cycle has hit the road recently, something the UT staff was fully expecting. The Horns are holding on loosely with the metroplex defensive back.
EN: 80%. It’s a busy weekend for the staff. That’s a great opportunity to show love for an under-the-radar player. This strategy worked out quite well for John Nash. Texas should find equilibrium this weekend if they press the right buttons.

DB, Malik Muhammad, Dallas South Oak Cliff
GH: 35%. Texas is popular in the circle. Malik profiles to Texas. The Longhorns need some momentum late this month and into July.
JW: 55%. With the carousel of in-state corners, Texas might lead for Muhammad by default. With Jayvon Thomas and Bravion Rogers committed to A&M and Javien Toviano trending there, UT must lock this one up. He’ll trip to College Station this summer before making a decision heading into his senior year. The Arch Effect could benefit here.
EN: 45%. I don’t like the late July official visit coupled with the August decision. I doubt UT does either, so expect an aggressive push this weekend.

 

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UncleSonny

UncleSonny 6572

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8 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

LB, Raul Aguirre, Fayetteville (Ga.) Whitewater
GH: 1.69%. Up from 0%. Let’s chat about this one again later in June.
JW: 10%. Ask me on Monday.
EN: 10%. I’ll assume Bama, even on Monday.

We aren’t signing Raul either way, but are they implying that we could be getting an Arch commitment on Monday or just waiting for feedback from Aguirre’s visit? 

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Viper

Viper 12109

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Just now, UncleSonny said:

We aren’t signing Raul either way, but are they implying that we could be getting an Arch commitment on Monday or just waiting for feedback from Aguirre’s visit? 

I took it as the later

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20286

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31 minutes ago, UncleSonny said:

We aren’t signing Raul either way, but are they implying that we could be getting an Arch commitment on Monday or just waiting for feedback from Aguirre’s visit? 

I think they are saying that even if we knock it out of the park and put our best foot forward by rolling out the red carpet and checking all the boxes... he's still not coming here. 

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