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Texas Recruiting Notes 2023: Strippers, Monkeys, and 5-Stars

Machinator

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JBJ

JBJ 3654

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14 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Has the 247 composite added On3 rankings yet? If not, people need to stop using 247. On3 is the best rankings service by a good bit, and they have their own consensus rankings which include all 4 major outlets. 

The problem with On3 consensus being adopted is that they grade on a different curve.  On3 has lower numbers.  Everyone favors posting a 98 composite rather than a 95 composite, even though the latter number is a higher ranking.

5 minutes ago, Keef said:

I think 247 also weights their rankings a bit more than the other services in its composite.

They do.  247 composite is basically an average of the ~percentile~ each service has them ranked, but they weigh themselves twice over.  (It's not a real percentile because it doesn't go to 0, but it's pretty close to the theoretical percentile if all football players were rated.)

Not sure what On3 does, and I don't keep a database anymore to try to reverse engineer it.  Systematically producing smaller number implies a non-linear method of averaging the services (like a geometric mean) instead of a simple (arithemtic) mean.

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Dbeasy

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4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The problem with On3 consensus being adopted is that they grade on a different curve.  On3 has lower numbers.  Everyone favors posting a 98 composite rather than a 95 composite, even though the latter number is a higher ranking.

They do.  247 composite is basically an average of the ~percentile~ each service has them ranked, but they weigh themselves twice over.  (It's not a real percentile because it doesn't go to 0, but it's pretty close to the theoretical percentile if all football players were rated.)

Not sure what On3 does, and I don't keep a database anymore to try to reverse engineer it.  Systematically producing smaller number implies a non-linear method of averaging the services (like a geometric mean) instead of a simple (arithemtic) mean.

Stop it math nerd. 

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Mason Ramsey

Mason Ramsey 3373

Posted
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3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The problem with On3 consensus being adopted is that they grade on a different curve.  On3 has lower numbers.  Everyone favors posting a 98 composite rather than a 95 composite, even though the latter number is a higher ranking.

They do.  247 composite is basically an average of the ~percentile~ each service has them ranked, but they weigh themselves twice over.  (It's not a real percentile because it doesn't go to 0, but it's pretty close to the theoretical percentile if all football players were rated.)

Not sure what On3 does, and I don't keep a database anymore to try to reverse engineer it.  Systematically producing smaller number implies a non-linear method of averaging the services (like a geometric mean) instead of a simple (arithemtic) mean.

calculating the hangover GIF

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NoName

NoName 16351

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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Geography doesn’t matter in the NFL and it won’t matter in what CFB will become. 

NFL games are pretty exact on windows across the board.

CFB games very clearly are not. Don't be lazy. It matters.

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Hornlover

Hornlover 8830

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15 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

 Not sure how trying to get people to use the most accurate service means I’m worried about rankings, but based on your reasoning, why don’t you go ahead and use Rivals since you’re not worried about the rankings? I’m sure you’ll have some hawt takes on highly rated recruits you think the staff should be recruiting harder. 

I'm more of a Trust the Corches kinda guy. I think S'maje Burrell is actually one of our top guys, and his rankings are pretty meh.

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NoName

NoName 16351

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35 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

What college football is now isn’t what it’s going to be in 5 years. SEC and BIG out front shoulda told ya. 

edit: using spoiler - wrong thread.

Spoiler

again, it's lazy to act like it doesn't matter here and now. if you think that 5 years of USC playing in a conference where there are currently 8 teams in the Eastern Time Zone + 6 teams in the Central Time Zone + 1 other team in the Pacific Time Zone isn't going to impact anything when it comes to fan involvement and TV ratings, you are wrong. Currently 10 of the 12 teams in Pac 12 are in Pacific Time Zone and the other 2 play in Mountain. Worst case, these teams have game starting 1 hour behind vs 2 hours for central and 3 hours for Eastern.

In Week 10 of 2021 (random selection in the middle ish of the season) there were CFB games Tuesday, Wed, Thur, Fri, Sat. for almost all of the NFL season there are 1 game Thursday night, Sunday and 1 game Monday night all in very, very well defined windows.

 

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Horn of Gabriel

Horn of Gabriel 1614

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3 minutes ago, NoName said:

again, it's lazy to act like it doesn't matter here and now. if you think that 5 years of USC playing in a conference where there are currently 8 teams in the Eastern Time Zone + 6 teams in the Central Time Zone + 1 other team in the Pacific Time Zone isn't going to impact anything when it comes to fan involvement and TV ratings, you are wrong. Currently 10 of the 12 teams in Pac 12 are in Pacific Time Zone and the other 2 play in Mountain. Worst case, these teams have game starting 1 hour behind vs 2 hours for central and 3 hours for Eastern.

In Week 10 of 2021 (random selection in the middle ish of the season) there were CFB games Tuesday, Wed, Thur, Fri, Sat. for almost all of the NFL season there are 1 game Thursday night, Sunday and 1 game Monday night all in very, very well defined windows.

Mountain out of a molehill.  This is a solvable problem through smart scheduling and windows.  Plus it ignores the other side of the risk which is standing pat in the disaster of the PAC, which is arguably much worse.

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Codaxx

Codaxx 5739

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11 minutes ago, utfan87 said:

Big 12 really fucked up not getting the Arizona schools

A&M blew up the Big 12 and the Pac 10 when they submarined that original deal. Balance of power would have been so much better with the Pac, Big, and SEC being legit. 

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NoName

NoName 16351

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

Mountain out of a molehill.  This is a solvable problem through smart scheduling and windows.  Plus it ignores the other side of the risk which is standing pat in the disaster of the PAC, which is arguably much worse.

i am not saying it is not solvable, i am saying it is going to be a shock to the system for USC fans to go from all conf games being worst case 1 hour behind to more than half of conf games being +3 hours behind and the rest being +2 hours behind at best.

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mwaadeeb

mwaadeeb 1210

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3 minutes ago, NoName said:

again, it's lazy to act like it doesn't matter here and now. if you think that 5 years of USC playing in a conference where there are currently 8 teams in the Eastern Time Zone + 6 teams in the Central Time Zone + 1 other team in the Pacific Time Zone isn't going to impact anything when it comes to fan involvement and TV ratings, you are wrong. Currently 10 of the 12 teams in Pac 12 are in Pacific Time Zone and the other 2 play in Mountain. Worst case, these teams have game starting 1 hour behind vs 2 hours for central and 3 hours for Eastern.

In Week 10 of 2021 (random selection in the middle ish of the season) there were CFB games Tuesday, Wed, Thur, Fri, Sat. for almost all of the NFL season there are 1 game Thursday night, Sunday and 1 game Monday night all in very, very well defined windows.

Couldn't west coast teams solve the problem by negotiating start times before 8pm?

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Bevo

Bevo 13577

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Posted
Just now, Hiphopopotamos said:

FWIW - IT has maintained that MHP is going to take his visits before deciding. 

Those percentages someone posted today didn't make a lot of sense to me for wide receivers. We have like 4 receivers on the big board with a high likelihood of landing. We can't be pushing equally for Mikal Harrison-Pilot, Jaquaize Pettaway, Jalen Hale, and Jaden Greathouse  with Johntay Cook, Ryan Niblett and Jonah Wilson already committed and with potential national recruits wanting in.

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NoName

NoName 16351

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

Couldn't west coast teams solve the problem by negotiating start times before 8pm?

edit: using spoiler - wrong thread.

Spoiler

why would the B10 agree to that when 8 of their teams are in the EST?

USC isn't joining the B12 or the SEC. Where else are they going to go?

 

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JBJ

JBJ 3654

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10 minutes ago, NoName said:

i am not saying it is not solvable, i am saying it is going to be a shock to the system for USC fans to go from all conf games being worst case 1 hour behind to more than half of conf games being +3 hours behind and the rest being +2 hours behind at best.

Games are played in TV timeslots, not at certain times based on where the game is being held.

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NoName

NoName 16351

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, JBJ said:

 

Games are played in TV timeslots, not at certain times based on where the game is being held.

Spoiler

Of course...here were the Week 5-8 game times for B10 2021. randomly selected the week:

image.png.a9614cf3e016679fc86ca50b768e949d.png

How many of those times (all shown as Eastern) are beneficial for USC fans living in LA?

So using this, games involving USC will start at 9a, 1230, or 430 for USC. if you think teams are pissed now about Big Noon Kickoff how will they feel when Penn State @ USC kick off at 9a local time?

Edit: Spoiler'd it and going to with my prior comments, I will move my discussion to the appropriate thread moving forward. 

 

 

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4th and 5

4th and 5 4914

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Athletic on the 5 star TE

 

Spoiler

REDONDO BEACH, Calif. — Trent Dilfer and the rest of the Elite 11 staffers spent some time trying to find the right match Wednesday night. Who exactly does five-star 2023 tight end prospect Duce Robinson, who attends Pinnacle High School in Phoenix, remind them of? Robinson is the type of prospect that allows your imagination to run wild. He’s 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds, possesses the fluidity and running ability of a receiver but is packaged like a wing player in basketball, and he’s versatile enough to stand out in football, basketball and baseball.

A matchup problem like that comes along only so often. That’s why Robinson, whose father Dominic was a highly touted football recruit and was drafted by the Minnesota Twins, is only the fourth tight end who has earned five-star status in the 247Sports Composite rankings over the past 10 recruiting cycles.

“(Kyle) Pitts, maybe?” Dilfer, the Elite 11 head coach, wondered aloud. “Pitts might have been a little more you could see him becoming a tight end. I don’t know if Duce has to become a tight end. I think he can line up out on the perimeter in certain offenses and play the X position, dominate the boundary and be physical in the run game, be a great RPO guy, be a great red zone guy. I don’t know what his 40 time is, but Mike Evans, maybe? That type that is so long, so athletic, such strong hands.

“He’s unique.”

There’s a lot of talent at Redondo Beach High School this week as the country’s top quarterbacks gather and compete against each other at the Elite 11 Finals. There are four five-star quarterbacks in attendance, plus some talented skill players from the Southern California area and some solid defensive players who will join them on Wednesday for the seven-on-seven portion of the camp. And it’s not outlandish to believe Robinson’s talent and skill set is the most impressive of the bunch.

“Listen, you don’t see (those traits) very often,” Dilfer said. “You see 6-foot-2 that could roll, who’s going to play at Oklahoma and Alabama. We’ve seen all that through The Opening. You see this uniqueness to him. It’s not just his size, it’s his ability with his size and charisma.”

A year ago, Dilfer wasn’t on hand at The Opening. He wasn’t allowed to coach Elite 11 while his quarterback Luther Richesson, who played for Dilfer at Lipscomb Academy in Nashville, was participating. Dilfer sure got the texts, though. They all expressed the same thing: “You’ve got to see this Duce kid.”

Arizona State offered Robinson as an eighth grader, before he ever even played tackle football, so he’s always been on the radar, but The Opening last year in Manhattan Beach, Calif., served as Robinson’s coming-out party on a national stage.

He dominated the seven-on-seven portion of the event with a combination of size and speed that left opposing defensive backs looking helpless most of the time as his team reached the championship game.

Robinson states his mission this week is to show he can compete with the best, but admittedly, he’s entering this year’s event with a somewhat different mindset.

“I think I’m just more comfortable with where I stand,” said Robinson, who is the No. 17 overall player in the country. “Last year, I felt I had to prove myself against everyone. It’s not that there’s none of that anymore. I definitely feel like I still have a lot to prove, a lot to show, but I think I’m just more comfortable with myself as a player, as a person now.”

It’s easy to get infatuated with Robinson’s measurables. With another year of development, he’s more physically mature than he was at this time last year. But what the Elite 11 staffers rave about is Robinson’s competitiveness.

“We’ve been doing the pro day workout for a long time,” said Brian Stumpf, Elite 11 president. “And there’s one guy who’s shown an equal love of football that Duce has shown coming to this workout now two years in a row and taken the number of reps. JuJu Smith-Schuster was out here, it had to be seven or eight years ago and JuJu ran every fourth route for three hours and just had a smile on his face the whole time. Obviously, it speaks to the love of the game and it helps guys plow through when things get tough and face adversity. They’re out here for a reason. He’s a special, special player. From the physical talent standpoint, he’s a unicorn, but when you factor in something like that tell me a better pass-catching target that you could build. That’s got to be the prototype.”

When you combine Robinson’s traits with the fact he’s eager enough to argue with and cut other players in line to get more reps this week, it’s not a surprise to see every major program in the country making him a priority. Robinson visited USC in the middle of June for the Trojans’ big recruiting weekend. Despite outside speculation that Robinson is leaning toward USC, he insists there’s still a long way to go.

“I’m definitely not anywhere near making a commitment yet,” Robinson said. “I just took a visit to USC a couple of weeks ago and I really enjoyed my visit there, but I’m going to take a couple more visits during the season and hopefully I’ll have a feel for where I want to go after those visits.”

On Tuesday, Robinson wore USC gloves as he caught passes from Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams and their five-star 2023 commit Malachi Nelson. On Wednesday, he wore Georgia gloves. Robinson has become close with Bulldogs tight end coach Todd Hartley and plans on visiting Georgia during the season.

“They probably have the best tight end room in the country right now,” Robinson said. “I’m definitely interested to see what Georgia’s like.”

Texas will also have a say in this chase. Robinson is close with Arch Manning, whose commitment has sparked a wave of pledges for the Longhorns over the past week. He’ll try to get to Oregon this summer and may visit Alabama at some point as well.

Robinson is a talented baseball player as well with designs on trying to play two sports at the college level, so that aspect of his decision-making process shouldn’t be overlooked. USC fired third-year baseball coach Jason Gill in early June after finishing in the Pac-12 basement and is still searching for a replacement.

“I’m in talks with all the baseball coaches at all the schools I’ve mentioned,” Robinson said. “I want to be able to play for a school who would not only let me play baseball but who encourages it and wants me to play. So that’s a pretty big (piece of it).”

Robinson isn’t sticking to a strict timeline when it comes to making a decision. He hopes to have a feel for where he’ll go once he takes all of his visits. As far as announcing a commitment, Robinson said, “it might be after the season, it might be during the season — whenever it feels right.”

Count on USC to put on a full-court press in the meantime. Williams was throwing to Robinson on Tuesday about a week after hosting Robinson on his own official visit to USC. And Williams opened the line of communication to Robinson before then.

 

“He was of course recruiting a little but it was more so becoming friends,” Robinson said, “getting to know each other personally, one on one, as opposed to him being the quarterback and me being the receiver.”

If Robinson does eventually pick USC, Williams would be his quarterback as a freshman, then Nelson would be lined up step into the role in Robinson’s second year. Robinson said he spent a lot of time talking to Nelson and 2023 five-star receiver commit Zachariah Branch on his visit. Nelson has spent a decent amount of time talking and throwing to Robinson this week as well.

“We’ve got to start practicing for USC,” Nelson joked on Tuesday.

 

USC has told Robinson he’d likely work with the tight ends and receivers coach at USC, and the standout expects he’d have to learn both positions. He has no problem playing a mix of both.

The reality is wherever he lines up at whichever program he chooses, he’s going to be a matchup problem for whoever is assigned to cover him.

“Football’s changing and you’ve got to stay up with it,” Dilfer said. “And I do think these hybrid positions where it’s the big back who can pound it between the gaps and also run swing routes on the sidelines to your Big X, small tight end, spread Y, whatever you want to call him, he’s going to be a weapon in college football. Because of his mismatch potential as well as his normal matchup potential.”

 

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Zhorn96

Zhorn96 1773

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25 minutes ago, NoName said:

why would the B10 agree to that when 8 of their teams are in the EST?

USC isn't joining the B12 or the SEC. Where else are they going to go?

average one way flight time from LA to the Big10 markets is 4.5 hours.  Scheduling would be a clusterfuck.  Only way this makes any sense is if the 2 Bay Area schools, Oregon and Washington come along.  UCLA can't ditch Cal and Oregon might not be able to ditch Oregon State so not sure this is real life unless half the Pac goes

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Dummy

Dummy 344

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4 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Wonder if the remaining Big12 schools that matter decide to collaborate with leftover Pac schools to create new conference.

Honestly, they should just try to create a conference of good PAC, Big 12, and  ACC schools (including ND for these purposes because I expect they'll have to do something at some point) that are good in football or basketball or bring good schooling/name recognition or something and just be done with the Big 12/ACC:

Clemson, Duke, FSU, Kansas, Miami, Oregon, UNC, ND, Stanford, Utah, VT, UVA. (can add Louisville, Washington, Arizona schools or other Big 12 Schools if more schools are valuable).

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kwood4408

kwood4408 764

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Posted
average one way flight time from LA to the Big10 markets is 4.5 hours.  Scheduling would be a clusterfuck.  Only way this makes any sense is if the 2 Bay Area schools, Oregon and Washington come along.  UCLA can't ditch Cal and Oregon might not be able to ditch Oregon State so not sure this is real life unless half the Pac goes

Hell, that’s shorter than it takes for us to get to Manhattan, Ames and Morgantown or drive to that shithole Lubbock.
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Lonestar88

Lonestar88 4664

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20 minutes ago, Zhorn96 said:

average one way flight time from LA to the Big10 markets is 4.5 hours.  Scheduling would be a clusterfuck.  Only way this makes any sense is if the 2 Bay Area schools, Oregon and Washington come along.  UCLA can't ditch Cal and Oregon might not be able to ditch Oregon State so not sure this is real life unless half the Pac goes

It’s real life buddy, it’s basically a done deal. 

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