3rd Democratic Debate - Houston

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

2 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

It's amazing to me that Biden is still so far out in front with people of color.   

I attribute it only to name recognition and perceived electability. They are both obstacles that aren’t that difficult to overcome for a stronger competitor. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

lol Castro stood on a booster box last night.



Guess he didn’t want to look too shrimpy considering who he was next to - like this.

[JimmyJames 12271]

23 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I attribute it only to name recognition and perceived electability. They are both obstacles that aren’t that difficult to overcome for a stronger competitor. 

Well there’s that and also Obama. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, AngryDragon said:

They all work in the sector of one of his biggest policy pushers (automation). Truck drivers, ff workers and retail. Anyone with eyes can see that's where the market is going. For the most part, that doesn't really apply to the Surly demo. I'd guess most of us would be on the other side of this equation.

At some point were all going to have to address what is already starting to manifest itself, that the centralization of control of profit by owners is going to continue to severely harm the prospects of labor which is becoming more and more unnecessary due to automization.

Once you become unnecessary you get to live in the street, and the owners get to continue to own to maximize profits paid for by the non-owners who have the ability to pay. Not the people living on the street of course. They don’t have the ability to pay for shit. 

Edited September 13, 2019 by JimmyJames

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

16 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Well there’s that and also Obama. 

Which is where the name recognition comes from

[JimmyJames 12271]

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Which is where the name recognition comes from

True. But like it or not it could carry him to the nomination.

As you should know, I would prefer Warren. But if Biden has a better chance of beating Trump, then I prefer him. 

[Celery Man 21028]

If Biden was the only one with a shot I’d want him. But I don’t think he is and I want to knock over that fucking vending machine.

[JimmyJames 12271]

After looking it over thoroughly, consulting the tea leaves, talking to some psychic woman in Jackson Square in New Orleans, watching the shining and the big Lebowski a few times,, and thinking about it some more, I’ve come to the conclusion that I desperately and truly want Warren to win.

Will that happen? Fuckin a man, probably not. But watch your cornhole surly members. By God it could. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Biden is currently running a very shitty campaign.  He started off with like a 20 point lead that’s gone nowhere but down and now he has to play defense. 

IMO that’s the best indicator of how he would campaign in the general, and govern as president, should he win.  

[Post Oak 20349]

5 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

GOP’er here. If I were y’all I’d be embarrassed with anything other than Beto or Biden. Kamala came off well last night. 

Warren is an embarrassment. That y’all actually have her as a serious candidate is akin to Rick Perry. 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Why Warren won the debate:  she stayed on message and avoided any of the sideshow bullshit.  No one took a meaningful swing at her either.  

 

[Dbeasy 15239]

The objective of Democrats should be to win the White House, not go all-in in one particular policy idea, especially one as complex and controversial as healthcare. Politicians have been winning elections for centuries by not being too specific about policy proposals. You know why? Because it’s a no-win situation. Elevate the messaging and win the White House. Or, frighten half the country and lose it. Don’t confuse what should be done once in office vs what must be done to win the office.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

We are going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. 

Also, we’re banning Muslims.

[BradInATX 9208]

13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We are going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. 

Also, we’re banning Muslims.

"Build the wall" is much more vague than the Democrat talking points. If it were Democrats, it'd be "we're going to construct a barrier. But the environment necessitates some green fencing in some areas, Also, there's some really sticky landowner's rights issues in Texas, so some parts will be open, but we're going to put extra border security there. And we'll fly some drones there, but we have to make sure that there are no protected birds in the drone zone.  And we still have the issue of people coming by boat, let me tell you about that too..."

Someone upthread said that they Dems need to just stick to the message that everyone is going to have healthcare, and the details are unimportant. Warren has done a pretty good job of it so far. "Get rid of corruption" is a good talking point. "Everyone has healthcare" is another. I've beaten this dead horse quite a bit but Warren is very obviously intentionally avoiding saying "get rid of private insurance" and avoiding getting into the minutia of her plans, at least on the debate/speech circuit. She gets it. The in-the-weeds detailed stuff is going to create some issues down the line in the general. It's about messaging.

Edited September 14, 2019 by BradInATX

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2645]

6 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

MFA will hurt the future of healthcare in the US and actually the world as there are less profits available. I can get that we all think healthcare providers and companies should only be in the industry for altruistic reasons but that is naive. Profit has funded many of the advancements.

I also believe that current quality will suffer as well due to lower overall payments. I know MFA proponents say that lower admin costs will offset this but I haven’t seen anyone in the industry agree.  And that includes not for profit organizations. I’m open to seeing the data behind their claim. 

So if what you are saying is correct, which it might very well be.  Why should I subside the worlds healthcare? 

[troph 24929]

Biden did ok but he’s still losing ground. As the bottom of the field drops out I think those voters aren’t going to Biden. I think he’s going to lose from attrition. More will drop before the primaries, after Iowa and after New Hampshire. By Super Tuesday he won’t be in the lead I bet. The only thing keeping him at the top right now is the split between warren and sanders. If sanders weren’t in the race warren would be in the lead now.

[EuroHorn 3277]

12 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

the professional classes LOOOOOVE the heartbroken white person who morally scolds Black America

Bernie lives in a state that’s 95% white.  Why is that ?

[David Dennison 19128]

11 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Bernie lives in a state that’s 95% white.  Why is that ?

Why is that?

[henrygandorf 29199]

1 hour ago, troph said:

Biden did ok but he’s still losing ground. As the bottom of the field drops out I think those voters aren’t going to Biden. I think he’s going to lose from attrition. More will drop before the primaries, after Iowa and after New Hampshire. By Super Tuesday he won’t be in the lead I bet. The only thing keeping him at the top right now is the split between warren and sanders. If sanders weren’t in the race warren would be in the lead now.

yeah, the clear-cut #2 with by far the most small, individual, grassroots donors and by far the most volunteers should just drop out already lol.

 

did i do that right?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

I’m fine with the way the race is going.  Assuming he’s not ultimately the nominee, Biden is kinda acting as a shield to absorb most of the negative press, which he earns.  Sanders and Warren benefit from that.  So do candidates like Beto and Buttigieg.  No idea what the fuck Kamala is doing but it ain’t working.

[bad_teammate 13316]

yeah, the clear-cut #2 with by far the most small, individual, grassroots donors and by far the most volunteers should just drop out already lol.
 
did i do that right?

Pretty good attempt. I'll send you a few notes but overall you've got the spirit.

[troph 24929]

yeah, the clear-cut #2 with by far the most small, individual, grassroots donors and by far the most volunteers should just drop out already lol.
 
did i do that right?

If warren wasn’t in the race sanders would be in the lead. The point is the ideas of those two which are very similar are more popular than Biden. That’s all.

I prefer warren but would vote for sanders.

I actually think it isn’t out of the realm of distinct possibility the two will broker a deal among their shared delegates at the convention tbqh.

[Js1 85784]

33 minutes ago, troph said:

If warren wasn’t in the race sanders would be in the lead. The point is the ideas of those two which are very similar are more popular than Biden. That’s all.

I prefer warren but would vote for sanders.

I actually think it isn’t out of the realm of distinct possibility the two will broker a deal among their shared delegates at the convention tbqh.

I don’t think that’s true.

Biden and Sanders occupy similar lanes in terms of their support. Non college educated working class voters within the Democratic Party. If you remove Warren, her college educated support base goes to Harris or Pete and they are up there in a 3 way race. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13554]

12 hours ago, troph said:

Biden did ok but he’s still losing ground. As the bottom of the field drops out I think those voters aren’t going to Biden. I think he’s going to lose from attrition. More will drop before the primaries, after Iowa and after New Hampshire. By Super Tuesday he won’t be in the lead I bet. The only thing keeping him at the top right now is the split between warren and sanders. If sanders weren’t in the race warren would be in the lead now.

Yep.  There is evidence that some would prefer a candidate that aligns to their ideals and lose to Trump than pick a candidate this is only close to their ideal and beat trump.

There is also the concept that some of the left think they have to mainly appeal to the far left in order to win. Yes some moderate Dems have lost but no one can point to a far left candidate that won.  And don't even tell me that Obama was far left.  He wasn't, and the candidates today say that constantly.

Edited September 14, 2019 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Incredulity 11713]

17 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m still wondering how an unmanned truck stops and refuels without human assistance. 

That is the big fucking riddle in a 50,000 lb, 60foot long, 14 foot high vehicle moving through erraticly traveled  overcapacity traffic infrastructure at speeds exceeding 60 miles per hour?

no way automation could get a 1 inch nozzle in a stationary 3 inch hole.  No fucking way.

 

[NWBuck 8593]

3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

no way automation could get a 1 inch nozzle in a stationary 3 inch hole.  No fucking way.

 

Automation? Hell, I can't get my 3 inch nozzle in a stationary 1 inch hole manually.

No fucking way indeed.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

2 hours ago, troph said:

If warren wasn’t in the race sanders would be in the lead. The point is the ideas of those two which are very similar are more popular than Biden. That’s all.

I prefer warren but would vote for sanders.

I actually think it isn’t out of the realm of distinct possibility the two will broker a deal among their shared delegates at the convention tbqh.

Bernie only has a 3% advantage over Biden as the second choice for Warren voters, and that wouldn't close the gap in Biden's lead.  (And Biden is the second choice of Biden voters over Warren by only 2%):

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

I wonder if whole Bernie/Warren vote split thing is a little overstated at this point.  Ideology is only one of many factors that go into supporting a candidate.   One could reasonably argue, based on polling, that having both Warren and Bernie in the race is actually helping keep Biden low enough to avoid getting a critical mass of supporters, and thus giving him more of a chance to implode. 

[bad_teammate 13316]

Who on the left says that a candidate must make appeals to the left? No one at a DSA meeting says that candidates should be doing outreach to socialists.

The left wants candidates to go to the working class.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

And don't even tell me that Obama was far left.  He wasn't, and the candidates today say that constantly.

Obama ran on “Yes we can!” and “Hope and Change”.  He campaigned well to the left of Hillary and won.  He ran on government healthcare, ending the wars, closing Gitmo, and unconditional meetings with our sworn enemies.  He was not a centrist candidate.  He governed as a centrist but he absolutely ran as a full blown liberal. 

Edited September 14, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[henrygandorf 29199]

32 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Obama ran on “Yes we can!” and “Hope and Change”.  He campaigned well to the left of Hillary and won.  He ran on government healthcare, ending the wars, closing Gitmo, and unconditional meetings with our sworn enemies.  He was not a centrist candidate.  He governed as a centrist but he absolutely ran as a full blown liberal. 

yep, and thus the confusion.

you campaign in poetry, you govern in prose.

unfortunately, these days, you campaign more aspirationally, and then the partisan bullshit stymies everything once you get there.  i'm curious about the disconnect between some of the voters who support more progressive vs more centrist candidates/policy plans.  are some people supporting centrists because they feel like their ideas are more likely to come to fruition?  or are they nervous that the progressive ideas actually will become law?  are hardcore progressives going to have a fit when bernie/warren can't get everything done they want because of the bullshit gridlock of the gop in the senate?

as much as people want to believe in "bernie the revolutionary candidate/president", it's more about bernie actually pulling the party over the years towards more progressive ideas.  regardless of whether he wins, he will have done a lot more in the last 15-20 years as non-president than he could probably do in 4-8 years as president, as weird as that sounds.  that type of foundational and structural change takes a long fucking time.

[David Dennison 19128]

46 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Obama ran on “Yes we can!” and “Hope and Change”.  He campaigned well to the left of Hillary and won.  He ran on government healthcare, ending the wars, closing Gitmo, and unconditional meetings with our sworn enemies.  He was not a centrist candidate.  He governed as a centrist but he absolutely ran as a full blown liberal. 

Liberal is not leftist. Liberal is basically conservative to leftists.