Iran attacks Saudi oil production

[bolverk 29780]

59 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

why is everyone so focused on the crude oil price? they hit 2 refineries that together have the ability to refine 8MM bbls/day of crude.
for reference - the entire Gulf Coast can refine maybe half of that?

this is a distillate, jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, naptha, LPG, heating oil, fuel oil, bunker fuel or whatever else you'd like to call it - refined fuels are fucked. everyone keeps talking about how KSA's crude oil output should be back online soon, but uh, refined fuels ain't crude oil.

long Marathon and Valero. anyone know of any other public, US-based refined fuels companies not named Chevron or Exxon?

NYSE: DK

[atomheartbevo 89895]

Oh, and the government is beating the war drums.  Pompeo's latest comments

Quote

"We were blessed that there were no Americans killed in this attack but any time you have an act of war of this nature, there’s always risk that that could happen,” he said. “This is an attack of a scale we’ve just not seen before,” he added later.

Every major war in the past 100 years has seen military attacks on civilian infrastructure.  It's really just "war".  

[El Diablo 4232]

Yeah and we and a dozen other countries have been collectively pounding that Houthi ass for some years now. What were they expecting, chocolates and roses?

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19180]

why is everyone so focused on the crude oil price? they hit 2 refineries that together have the ability to refine 8MM bbls/day of crude.
for reference - the entire Gulf Coast can refine maybe half of that?
this is a distillate, jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, naptha, LPG, heating oil, fuel oil, bunker fuel or whatever else you'd like to call it - refined fuels are fucked. everyone keeps talking about how KSA's crude oil output should be back online soon, but uh, refined fuels ain't crude oil.
long Marathon and Valero. anyone know of any other public, US-based refined fuels companies not named Chevron or Exxon?

Not a refinery, as has been said a ton.

[BLKNSTY 289]

26 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

3 hours ago, BLKNSTY said:

why is everyone so focused on the crude oil price? they hit 2 refineries that together have the ability to refine 8MM bbls/day of crude.
for reference - the entire Gulf Coast can refine maybe half of that?
this is a distillate, jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, naptha, LPG, heating oil, fuel oil, bunker fuel or whatever else you'd like to call it - refined fuels are fucked. everyone keeps talking about how KSA's crude oil output should be back online soon, but uh, refined fuels ain't crude oil.
long Marathon and Valero. anyone know of any other public, US-based refined fuels companies not named Chevron or Exxon?

Not a refinery, as has been said a ton.

... and? If they're doing any kind of stabilization you'll still inevitably have a good bit of methane, ethane, propane, butane that was destined for some LPG facility that is now offline. you'll still have a good bit amount of resid that would need be further processed before being sent out.

maybe a little less impact on traditional gasoline and diesel than I originally thought (still want to think through how off-spec "stabilized" crude will impact the liquid fuels markets), but I still don't see how light/heavy ends don't end up in short, short supply... long LPG!

Edited September 18, 2019 by BLKNSTY

[BLKNSTY 289]

double

Edited September 18, 2019 by BLKNSTY

[Trey3216 15380]

17 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

... and? If they're doing any kind of stabilization you'll still inevitably have a good bit of methane, ethane, propane, butane that was destined for some LPG facility that is now offline. you'll still have a good bit amount of resid that would need be further processed before being sent out.

maybe a little less impact on traditional gasoline and diesel than I originally thought (still want to think through how off-spec "stabilized" crude will impact the liquid fuels markets), but I still don't see how light/heavy ends don't end up in short, short supply... long LPG!

Yep.  The "we'll have everything full-bore by the end of september" trope is hilariously unrealistic.  The powers that be are doing some serious damage control to convince people that there's not a real problem right around the corner.  

[BLKNSTY 289]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep.  The "we'll have everything full-bore by the end of september" trope is hilariously unrealistic.  The powers that be are doing some serious damage control to convince people that there's not a real problem right around the corner.  

HILARIOUSLY unrealistic. FOUR DISTILLATION TOWERS ARE DOWN. I'm not 100% sure on this, but without doing a lick of research I'm 99% sure that those are THE FOUR BIGGEST DISTILLATION TOWERS IN THE WORLD. 

the irony is though, they can honestly say with a straight face that their crude output will be back to normal relatively quickly - because that's a fucking factually correct statement. Incredibly misleading, but true and apparently effective. 

If anyone wants to get a lesson in framing, start right here. I've gotta hand it to the Arabs. With the Sulfur IMO Regs kicking in in 2020, betting on a refined fuels is the way to goooo.  IMO.

[Cajun 11760]

Like I said, get 'em when they appear...

[Cajun 11760]

I'll just leave this right here... (Reuters)

Quote

Real crunch from Saudi Arabia's oil outage has yet to be felt

Quote

LONDON (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's ability to avert a global oil supply crunch will only become clear in a few weeks, because for now its crude held in storage can fill the gap and mask the scale of damage to its facilities, traders and analysts say.

Riyadh says production will be back to normal levels in two to three weeks, which means restoring output to about 10 million barrels per day (bpd), after Saturday's attacks on two sites that usually process and clean up about 5.7 million bpd.

While it carries out repairs, the world's biggest oil exporter has promised to keep the physical crude market supplied from its inventories held in the kingdom and abroad, estimated to have been about 180 million barrels in July.

But traders and analysts are skeptical repairs to the Abqaiq and Khurais sites will be swift, while the lack of transparency about Saudi inventories adds to uncertainty about whether Riyadh can keep markets supplied without disruption.

"A lot of October arrival barrels were already on the water so the hole is going to show up toward late October," one senior European oil trader said. "There has been a mad scramble on the paper markets but the physical scramble will come later."

Precisely when any rush for physical crude kicks in will depend on the level of Saudi Arabia's inventories and how long it needs to rely on them to ensure clients receive full allocations.

The Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), a body that issues energy data using submissions by its members such as Riyadh, said Saudi inventories at home and abroad fell 8 million barrels in the month of July - the latest month available - to 180 million barrels.

But one veteran oil trader said the accuracy of the JODI figures was the "big unknown", adding that "overground tracked volume total would appear to be smaller", a reference to calculations from data analytics firms that use satellites to measure storage.

The trader said moves by state-run Saudi Aramco's trading arm Aramco Trading Corp (ATC) to buy refined products, added to uncertainty about the level of Saudi stockpiles.

"There was talk of tens of billions invested over two decades to construct underground storage which one suspects contain largely products. But why then have we seen ATC come out and buy products?" he said.

Several trading sources said Aramco had already bought at least 120,000 tonnes of diesel for prompt loading in the UAE, but it was not immediately clear if the purchases were directly related to the impact of the attacks. 

 

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/real-crunch-from-saudi-arabias-oil-outage-has-yet-to-be-felt-1981590

Edited September 19, 2019 by Cajun

[LonghornJones 837]

So you're calling for $100 oil?

[El Diablo 4232]

Dips with crunch?

[jeevsie 3740]

Time to ride the wave back up, boys!

[Cajun 11760]

3 hours ago, LonghornJones said:

So you're calling for $100 oil?

At some point?

 

oh, you bet.

[Neonmoon 38130]

Pure speculation but interesting if true

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Exclusive-Saudi-Arabia-floats-change-to-Japan-oil-supply-sparks-concern

Quote

TOKYO -- Saudi Aramco has notified Japan's top oil distributor about a potential change in shipments, stoking concerns about the kingdom's ability to supply crude following attacks on its major refineries a week ago, Nikkei learned Saturday.

State-owned Aramco did not say why it wants to change the oil grade it supplies to JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy from light to heavy and medium, starting in October, JXTG officials said.

But the move indicates that the Saudi national oil company is having a hard time restoring its production as quickly as it has promised, despite repeated assurances that the company's supply would be restored by the end of Septembe

 

[triplehorn 2664]

It sounds like yesterday's announcement of deployment of forces to Saudi mainly involves equipment and manpower to mount missile defense.  Presumably they've had time to recover and analyze materials from the cruise missile attack.  So they have an idea of the specifications and capabilities of the missiles used.

What, if any, are modern effective countermeasures to cruise missiles ?  

[Hate 20155]

It sounds like yesterday's announcement of deployment of forces to Saudi mainly involves equipment and manpower to mount missile defense.  Presumably they've had time to recover and analyze materials from the cruise missile attack.  So they have an idea of the specifications and capabilities of the missiles used.
What, if any, are modern effective countermeasures to cruise missiles ?  

[triplehorn 2664]

I take that to mean neutralizing the guidance systems.  

[Jkwellborn 6783]

It’s jammed.

[atomheartbevo 89895]

2 hours ago, triplehorn said:

What, if any, are modern effective countermeasures to cruise missiles ?

Best Buy needs to be nailed to the wall for exporting HDMI cable technology.  

[Trey3216 15380]

On 9/21/2019 at 3:32 PM, Jkwellborn said:

It’s jammed.