What's going on with this DNI Whistleblower ?

[atomheartbevo 89799]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's not the right question.  The question is "can I get re-elected with ONLY the support of the Trumpists?"

If that answer is perceived by some to be "no", then they will take steps to distance themselves.  It's entirely possible that doing so would not ensure success, either, but you are watering this down too far.  The GOP votes for Trump were not exclusively cast by "Trumpists" -- many of his voters had no idea what they were doing.  If they abandon him then (in a free and fair election) he will likely lose.  You simply do not know how many of those (R) votes have soured on Trump, even though you will continue to beat your chest and claim with no evidence that it's "EVERY ONE OF THEM".

I eagerly await your braying reply, which will probably include references to vote hacking, a ledge, and naivete.

This.  Hillary ain’t running in 2020, which means the Republicans in Congress up for re-election aren’t running against her at the top of the ticket.

 Republicans running next year are basically having to run with Trump as a shadow running mate, because that (R) next to their name indelibly links him to them.   

Hell, some might change parties to stay in power. - that’s how much they love the power.  Lest we forget, Rick Perry was Al Gore’s campaign chief in Texas in ‘88.  

[RomaVicta 30019]

Put him on display for a week.

Strap the cage to the deck of a ship heading into the North Atlantic.

Jettison his ass. I'd like to see him have some company in that cage.

Adios, mofo. Vaya con Diablo.

 

 

[BLKNSTY 289]

i realize you and brisket have dug your foxholes here, but the reality is that things change.

 

 

it ain’t just Brisket and Straw. It’s quite a few of us.

 

And it all boils down to this, I’m a Houston raised UT Grad. I hang around mostly, you guessed it, Houston raised UT Grads.

 

50% of those fucks voted Trump and every single one who voted Trump are jacked to the tits when it comes to voting Trump2020. I’m actually willing to bet he gets 58-60% of the white woman vote.

 

You and Atom can keep fighting the good fight, but uh, the House will Impeach, Senate will not convict, and Trump wins 2020 with 40-45% of the popular vote.

 

people can shit on the Dems all they want on being giant gashes, but damn the US Gov. was in no shape or form built to withstand an unyielding, shameless, brazenly corrupt, white supremacist, textbook narcissistic reality tv star/hotelier who managed to convince 40% of the population via social media with explicit help from Fox News and foreign entities who exploit a divided America.

 

The second you see Wulaw, Escriva, PHD, Pepper, Tahoe, Sack, Swam, FC back in here willing to eat shit - then maybe.

 

But I wouldn’t if I was them. They’re right, this is MAGA Country now.

[4th&Five 41590]

i don't have the patience or desire to hang out with anyone that talks positively about dotard at this point.  how do you do it?

 

[Pig Bellmont 8738]

8 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

and Trump wins 2020 with 40-45% of the popular vote.

I will bet any amount of money that he will not win re-election. 

[GW Hayduke 1953]

10 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

and Trump wins 2020 with 40-45% of the popular vote.

 

The only way this happens is if a bunch of goobers buy into and push a defeatist narrative that suppresses the Dem vote 

Edited October 9, 2019 by GW Hayduke

[BLKNSTY 289]

The GOP votes for Trump were not exclusively cast by "Trumpists" -- many of his voters had no idea what they were doing.  If they abandon him then (in a free and fair election) he will likely lose.  You simply do not know how many of those ® votes have soured on Trump, even though you will continue to beat your chest and claim with no evidence that it's "EVERY ONE OF THEM".
I eagerly await your braying reply, which will probably include references to vote hacking, a ledge, and naivete.

I’m willing to say 5MM out of Dotards 60MM votes could fall into this magical non-Trumpkin Trump Voter category, even though I don’t know a single fucking one in real life.

voter turnout is what 60%?

For every 1 vote that leaves Trump, I’m willing to bet 1.1 to 1.2 come from those who previously didn’t vote. Even more from the swing states. I can tell you who’s excited to vote in FL, NC, OH, MN, MI, PA, IN, etc and it ain’t the inner city residents.

[BLKNSTY 289]

i don't have the patience or desire to hang out with anyone that talks positively about dotard at this point.  how do you do it?
 

sorry, I meant Facebook. I haven’t had a real conversation with any of them since early 2017.

[BLKNSTY 289]

The only way this happens is if a bunch of goobers buy into and push a defeatist narrative that suppresses the Dem vote 

I didn’t explain this well. Voter Turnout in 2020 will be recordsetting, even with that and the Popular Vote, foreign interference + gerrymandering in swing state legislatures will just be too much to overcome.

Let’s not even talk about how he’s effectively turned Joe Biden into a just as crooked Hillary. They way he pivots and brands it in a way his base can eat up and spit out their talking points?

Insert Italian Chef’s Kiss - mama mia, itsa beautiful!

[jimmyjazz 46134]

8 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

For every 1 vote that leaves Trump, I’m willing to bet 1.1 to 1.2 come from those who previously didn’t vote. Even more from the swing states. I can tell you who’s excited to vote in FL, NC, OH, MN, MI, PA, IN, etc and it ain’t the inner city residents.

 

Well, it's possible, but I don't know how you could possibly come to those numbers with any confidence.  We will literally have to wait and see. 

I will say this:  polling isn't a completely inexact science, not when done with an effort to reveal truth as opposed to bias.  I simply do not believe most Americans who used to be wholly against impeachment and removal but who are now in favor of impeachment (and perhaps) removal are lying.  There is no reason to lie.  They aren't answering those questions in front of their friends.  Are some lying?  Sure.  Are some currently fooling themselves but will ultimately fall in line for Trump?  Sure.  All of them?  No way.

Polls and Trump's behavior tells us the sands are shifting.  How much?  We don't know.  I do know this -- NOW IS THE TIME TO FUCKING ATTACK.  I'm talking to you, Nancy.

[BLKNSTY 289]

i don't have the patience or desire to hang out with anyone that talks positively about dotard at this point.  how do you do it?
 

sorry, I meant Facebook. I haven’t had a real conversation with any of them since early 2017.

and if you don’t believe me, my golf game has suffered terribly for it.

[atomheartbevo 89799]

30 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

50% of those fucks voted Trump and every single one who voted Trump are jacked to the tits when it comes to voting Trump2020. I’m actually willing to bet he gets 58-60% of the white woman vote.

• Hillary ain't running.
• 2018 showed the GOP is not invulnerable, not even close, and it showed Trump is putting states he won in 2016 into play.
• The GOP ramped up voter suppression where they could, because they are seeing something Very Bad
• A shitload of Republicans in Congress are bailing, because their internal polling told them to bail.
• Trump is very clearly rattled, and very clearly scared that he might go down.  His actions and tweets and comments over the past two weeks have pretty much topped everything else up until this point, to the point where he openly asked China to investigate Biden. and he's doing everything he can to keep everybody he can from talking to Schiff and Co.  He is more desperate than he's ever been.

Edited October 9, 2019 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89799]

5 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

Let’s not even talk about how he’s effectively turned Joe Biden into a just as crooked Hillary. They way he pivots and brands it in a way his base can eat up and spit out their talking points?

Ain't nobody going to be excited to go and vote against Biden (even if he won the nod).   Hillary had decades of hate that built up against her, and Trump can't gin that much hate up in 12 months.  

Especially when he's asking multiple countries to investigate Biden - that's actually working against Trump.

People were excited to go and vote against Hillary.

Edited October 9, 2019 by atomheartbevo

[Ghost of LL 15539]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

• Hillary ain't running.
• 2018 showed the GOP is not invulnerable, not even close, and it showed Trump is putting states he won in 2016 into play.
• The GOP ramped up voter suppression where they could, because they are seeing something Very Bad
• A shitload of Republicans in Congress are bailing, because their internal polling told them to bail.
• Trump is very clearly rattled, and very clearly scared that he might go down.  His actions and tweets and comments over the past two weeks have pretty much topped everything else up until this point, to the point where he openly asked China to investigate Biden.  He is more desperate than he's ever been.

I mean, for fuck sake--even ahb has soured on Trump.  How much more evidence do you need that Brisket's and Jack's narrative is false?  Trump is losing support of previously loyal Republicans.

[BLKNSTY 289]

Well, it's possible, but I don't know how you could possibly come to those numbers with any confidence.  We will literally have to wait and see. 
I will say this:  polling isn't a completely inexact science, not when done with an effort to reveal truth as opposed to bias.  I simply do not believe most Americans who used to be wholly against impeachment and removal but who are now in favor of impeachment (and perhaps) removal are lying.  There is no reason to lie.  They aren't answering those questions in front of their friends.  Are some lying?  Sure.  Are some currently fooling themselves but will ultimately fall in line for Trump?  Sure.  All of them?  No way.
Polls and Trump's behavior tells us the sands are shifting.  How much?  We don't know.  I do know this -- NOW IS THE TIME TO FUCKING ATTACK.  I'm talking to you, Nancy.

I’m not saying this to be facetious, but have you tasted liberal tears?

I haven’t, but I’m willing to bet a lot of people on the right would pay 25% on their salary just for a steady supply of it.

Lying for Liberal Tears is fucking nothing for these guys. Cognitive dissonance x1000.

[Brisketexan 105338]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I eagerly await your braying reply, which will probably include references to vote hacking, a ledge, and naivete.

Well, I mean, you already knew what my reply would be, except....

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Don't forget the lanai.

....I am interested in seeing if Brickhorn's lanai would fit on my ledge.  It would be a lovely and comfortable perch from which we can watch the world burn.

32 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

 

it ain’t just Brisket and Straw. It’s quite a few of us.

 

And it all boils down to this, I’m a Houston raised UT Grad. I hang around mostly, you guessed it, Houston raised UT Grads.

 

50% of those fucks voted Trump and every single one who voted Trump are jacked to the tits when it comes to voting Trump2020. I’m actually willing to bet he gets 58-60% of the white woman vote.

 

You and Atom can keep fighting the good fight, but uh, the House will Impeach, Senate will not convict, and Trump wins 2020 with 40-45% of the popular vote.

 

people can shit on the Dems all they want on being giant gashes, but damn the US Gov. was in no shape or form built to withstand an unyielding, shameless, brazenly corrupt, white supremacist, textbook narcissistic reality tv star/hotelier who managed to convince 40% of the population via social media with explicit help from Fox News and foreign entities who exploit a divided America.

 

The second you see Wulaw, Escriva, PHD, Pepper, Tahoe, Sack, Swam, FC back in here willing to eat shit - then maybe.

 

But I wouldn’t if I was them. They’re right, this is MAGA Country now.

And this.  Cults don't lose support.  They may commit mass suicide, but they don't lose support.

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Polls and Trump's behavior tells us the sands are shifting.  How much?  We don't know.  I do know this -- NOW IS THE TIME TO FUCKING ATTACK.  I'm talking to you, Nancy.

On this, we absolutely agree.  I think the odds are against us. I think we're going down.  But for goddamned sure, we shouldn't go down without a fight.

[Junior Miller 1502]

The very foundation and law on which this country was built is being tested to failure at this moment. When you test to failure you find out if it can handle the force or if it breaks. 

Democracy was never meant to be tested to failure. It relies on the politicians to all have a common desire to avoid burning it to the ground. Problem is greed and corruption have blinded them to the point they probably don't realize nor care they're burning down the country. The Republicans have lied to themselves so much they really believe the Democrats are the traitors. 

The last Fail-Safe for a democracy is the people themselves. If the politicians get to this point it's up to the people to vote them all out, but as we see the American people are now the laziest and stupidest on Earth.

Last night I caught the last hour or so of that movie Glory. Hadn't seen it in about 20 years but now it takes on a whole new sadder meaning to me. Realizing all the advantages this country was given from a geographical standpoint and how many people sacrificed so much for it to grow to what it became only for the whole thing to be brought down by one generation of completely entitled and corrupt lazy assholes. 

Edited October 9, 2019 by Junior Miller

[BLKNSTY 289]

• Hillary ain't running.
• 2018 showed the GOP is not invulnerable, not even close, and it showed Trump is putting states he won in 2016 into play.
• The GOP ramped up voter suppression where they could, because they are seeing something Very Bad
• A shitload of Republicans in Congress are bailing, because their internal polling told them to bail.
• Trump is very clearly rattled, and very clearly scared that he might go down.  His actions and tweets and comments over the past two weeks have pretty much topped everything else up until this point, to the point where he openly asked China to investigate Biden. and he's doing everything he can to keep everybody he can from talking to Schiff and Co.  He is more desperate than he's ever been.

 

Crooked Joe is just as Crooked cause of Ukraine.

The House reflects the Popular Vote. The Senate reflects the EC. The EC decides POTUS.

They did, and they’re going to keep doing it and getting away with it because checks and balances are a figment of your imagination.

Republican House Members and Senators from safe Red States a bailing. The House will stay Blue as long as we have the Popular Vote. Nobody said the Republicans don’t know how to choose their battles.

 

Insert “We Got Him” gif. It’s Teflon Don.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

5 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

The very foundation and law on which this country was built is being tested to failure at this moment. When you test to failure you find out if it can handle the force or if it breaks. 

Democracy was never meant to be tested to failure. It relies on the politicians to all have a common desire to avoid burning it to the ground. Problem is greed and corruption have blinded them to the point they probably don't realize nor care they're burning down the country. The Republicans have lied to themselves so much they really believe the Democrats are the traitors. 

The last Fail-Safe for a democracy is the people themselves. If the politicians get to this point it's up to the people to vote them all out, but as we see the American people are now the laziest and stupidest on Earth.

Last night I caught the last hour or so of that movie Glory. Hadn't seen it in about 20 years but now it takes on a whole new sadder meaning to me. Realizing all the advantages this country was given from a geological standpoint and how many people sacrificed so much for it to grow to what it became only for the whole thing to be brought down by one generation of completely entitled and corrupt lazy assholes. 

I disagree.  I think this will be our finest hour.  This'll be the time when our Constitution and Republic reassert themselves and ensure that ours is a more stable democracy than the Wiemar Republic or the Third French Republic or all those others that have fallen to dictators and tyranny.

[Biff Tannen 45742]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

I disagree.  I think this will be our finest hour.  This'll be the time when our Constitution and Republic reassert themselves and ensure that ours is a more stable democracy than the Wiemar Republic or the Third French Republic or all those others that have fallen to dictators and tyranny.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

4 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

The House reflects the Popular Vote. The Senate reflects the EC. The EC decides POTUS.

Somebody doesn't know how the Electoral College works.

And by the way--please remind me what ended up happening to John Gotti (i.e., the original "teflon don")?

[Pescado_Rojo 19428]

There's no way Trump pulls new voters in 2020. He's already topped out, IMO. He may very well lose the popular vote by a larger margin and still win the EC, but I don't see him adding 5-6MM new voters in 2020. 

[Red Five 40895]

I disagree.  I think this will be our finest hour.  This'll be the time when our Constitution and Republic reassert themselves and ensure that ours is a more stable democracy than the Wiemar Republic or the Third French Republic or all those others that have fallen to dictators and tyranny.

I like it. Part Ed Harris, part Bill Pullman.

[Loco 3754]

52 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

But I wouldn’t if I was them. They’re right, this is MAGA Country now.

Sounds like a shitty cigarette marking slogan 

[DDD Dad 14351]

12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I disagree.  I think this will be our finest hour.  This'll be the time when our Constitution and Republic reassert themselves and ensure that ours is a more stable democracy than the Wiemar Republic or the Third French Republic or all those others that have fallen to dictators and tyranny.

That's quaint.

[BLKNSTY 289]

Somebody doesn't know how the Electoral College works.
And by the way--please remind me what ended up happening to John Gotti (i.e., the original "teflon don")?

yeah. I don’t know how the EC works.

I actually agree with you on the Gotti thing. But not in the way you think.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/14/nyregion/gotti-federal-sentence.html

The Gotti-family is still doing Gotti-family things. As will the Trumps 30 years from now. Let’s just hope that doesn’t include being the democratically-elected leader of the free world.

[atomheartbevo 89799]

4 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

Crooked Joe is just as Crooked cause of Ukraine.
The House reflects the Popular Vote. The Senate reflects the EC. The EC decides POTUS.
They did, and they’re going to keep doing it and getting away with it because checks and balances are a figment of your imagination.
Republican House Members and Senators from safe Red States a bailing. The House will stay Blue as long as we have the Popular Vote.

Insert “We Got Him” gif. It’s Teflon Don.

And Trump's actions and comments project what he's really thinking, which is that he's fucked next year, whether through impeachment or the election.   His twitter feed is not that of a man who is confident he's coming out of the impeachment process unscathed, and who is going to easily win next year.

In 2018, he personally campaigned for GOP candidates in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and the Dems still flipped those states - that's 46 electoral votes.  And Arizona flipped - that's 11 electoral votes

57 electoral votes gone for Trump, putting him at 247, and he has to earn those electoral votes back:

• Arizona - He won by 3.55 % in 2016
• Michigan - He won by  0.23 %
• Pennsylvania - He won by 0.72 %
• Wisconsin - He won by 0.77 %

And that's not counting Trump putting Florida, NC, and Georgia into play.

Where does Trump make those up in 12 months, when he's out there when's publicly asking China to go after one of his rivals, and when he's putting major industries in a couple of those states in serious financial trouble over his trade wars.

There's a reason why Hillary running has been on his mind, because he knows that's the only chance he has to win.

[Js1 85576]

15 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

The House reflects the Popular Vote. The Senate reflects the EC. The EC decides POTUS.

 

The map, based on approval rating alone:

HRC ain't running in 2020.  Obviously the Democrat isn't going to win Florida, Georgia or Texas.  NC, AZ, IA, WI, MI and PA are very much in play.  There's an infinite many more paths for the Democrats than Trump in 2020, without the 20-year-Clinton-hate-machine-candidate opposite him. 

So many paths

Take back the Blue Wall (easiest path) - Democrats win 278-260
Drop Wisconsin (because it has really red suburbs) put pick up Arizona (whose suburbs turned blue) - Democrats win 279-259
Drop Wisconsin, but pick up NC - Democrats win 283-255
Drop Wisconsin and Michigan, but pick up NC and AZ (aka, the future where Democrats look most competitive in the Sun Belt while the Rust Belt goes red) - Democrats win 278-260

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

Just now, Loco said:

Sounds like a shitty cigarette marking slogan 

I would prefer to picture a pickup truck, one of those ones where the paint started to peel off after one or two years? With a cracked windshield (People will just not pay attention when tying down their loads on 290), a twisted side view mirror, some rust and the creaky groaning sound you get when the shocks are shot. That's where I hope the GOP is at: in the desert, with no water, a busted radiator, a dead battery and no cell service. MAGA Country.

They picked a lemon and they are sticking with him. They can suck it.

 

 

*This may also describe a number of ranch trucks, but those are different because they just are.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89799]

2016:

• Arizona - He won by 3.55 % - 11 electoral votes
• Michigan - He won by  0.23 % - 16 electoral votes
• Pennsylvania - He won by 0.72 % - 20 electoral votes
• Wisconsin - He won by 0.77 % - 10 electoral votes

Losing those states in 2018, if he doesn't flip any of those four in 2020, that puts him down at 247.  And he sure as hell isn't going to flip any states Hillary won.

If he gets Pennsylvania, he only has to win one of those other states.

If he loses Pennsylvania, he has to win all three other states.

And then we have the other states that he put into play

• Florida - 29 votes - he won by 1.2 % in 2016
• Georgia - 15 votes - he won by 5% in 2016
• North Carolina - 16 votes - he won by 3.7 %

And the Republican Governor in Florida only won by 0.4 % last year.

There is a reason why Trump is scared shitless about the upcoming elections, and why he is trying to drive the narrative that the Dems are going to lie, steal, and cheat next year.

[atomheartbevo 89799]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

HRC ain't running in 2020.  Obviously the Democrat isn't going to win Florida

He won Florida by 1.2 % with Hillary running in 2016.

112,000 votes, in a state with 21 million people.  And plenty of federal employees and their families in Florida remember Trump's government shutdown.  And they are aware of Republicans fucking over the will of the people with the ex-felons being allowed to vote and the GOP trying to stop them.

Edited October 9, 2019 by atomheartbevo

[Js1 85576]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

He won Florida by 1.2 % with Hillary running in 2016.

112,000 votes, in a state with 21 million people.  And plenty of federal employees and their families in Florida remember Trump's government shutdown.

I will never again, in my life, pin my hopes on Florida doing the right thing between 2000, 2016 and 2018. 

[Horn Dog 9933]

It funny that you guys think he needs legitimate votes to win the states he needs.  It's almost like you believe the GOP is not the party of voter suppression, out-rite  fraud, and any means necessary.

Edited October 9, 2019 by Horn Dog

[GW Hayduke 1953]

14 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

It funny that you guys think he needs legitimate votes to win the states he needs.  It's almost like you believe the GOP is not the party of voter suppression, out-rite  fraud, and any means necessary.

The defeatist response to every little thing is so fucking old. 

[Junior Miller 1502]

39 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I disagree.  I think this will be our finest hour.  This'll be the time when our Constitution and Republic reassert themselves and ensure that ours is a more stable democracy than the Wiemar Republic or the Third French Republic or all those others that have fallen to dictators and tyranny.

I'm curious to know how you feel this will come to pass.

1)Do you believe the republicans in Congress will turn face finally after 3 years of abject corruption and illegal actions by the white house? 

2)Do you believe the House has enough power to have everyone short of trump who fails to cooperate with subpoenas brought up on charges and removed forcefully? 

3)Or are you confident in the American people punishing the republicans for their corruption and turning the white house and Senate blue in 2020?

I would like to see where this confidence comes in because I feel #1 is virtually impossible, #2 is a complete unknown, and #3 feels like a crapshoot at absolute best. 

 

Then, even if somehow this administration doesn't completely break American democracy how do we keep whatever is coming next from doing so? Such horrible precedent for allowable behavior by a president's administration has been set over the last 18 years that how do we achieve walking that back? 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33899]

6 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

The defeatist response to every little thing is so fucking old. 

seriously

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

4 hours ago, HOOK'EMHOOAH said:

Also, keep in mind that baron (or whatever his name is) is still a literal child. Sure, he may be influenced by Dolan, but he needs to be kept out of it and brought up in a civilized manner.

Or they could throw him in a cage like the children on the border.

I have no sympathy for the Trump family, their enablers, or supporters.

No quarter.

[Ted Lange 16143]

 

 

 

 

[Horn Dog 9933]

42 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

The defeatist response to every little thing is so fucking old. 

Oh it's definitely old.  I eagerly await the day it's not true.

[Brisketexan 105338]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I disagree.  I think this will be our finest hour.  This'll be the time when our Constitution and Republic reassert themselves and ensure that ours is a more stable democracy than the Wiemar Republic or the Third French Republic or all those others that have fallen to dictators and tyranny.

You're not going to like the ending of the movie they're gonna make about this.

You are counting on Lovell:

 

You're gonna get Komarov:

 

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

1 hour ago, Junior Miller said:

 how do we achieve walking that back? 

If, by some miracle, we fairly elect a representative to the Presidential office, we are handing him or her  the worst of everything: like a 2 BR rental that the previous tenant trashed and it's in such disarray one hardly knows where to start cleaning. I would want someone brave, someone smart, someone with experience, and someone who is not afraid to roll up their sleeves, get to work and tell everyone they better join in or there ain't gonna be no supper. I want Warren. Some of her opponents have called her a scold. Well, we sure need a good scolding right now, don't we? She's a long shot, but the GOP lost me and if she gets the nod for the Democrats, I am going to put my best effort toward helping her win.

[Brisketexan 105338]

2 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

If, by some miracle, we fairly elect a representative to the Presidential office, we are handing him or her  the worst of everything: like a 2 BR rental that the previous tenant trashed and it's in such disarray one hardly knows where to start cleaning. I would want someone brave, someone smart, someone with experience, and someone who is not afraid to roll up their sleeves, get to work and tell everyone they better join in or there ain't gonna be no supper. I want Warren. Some of her opponents have called her a scold. Well, we sure need a good scolding right now, don't we? She's a long shot, but the GOP lost me and if she gets the nod for the Democrats, I am going to put my best effort toward helping her win.

Yep, this.  No fucking half-measures.

[atomheartbevo 89799]

1 hour ago, Horn Dog said:

It funny that you guys think he needs legitimate votes to win the states he needs.  It's almost like you believe the GOP is not the party of voter suppression, out-rite  fraud, and any means necessary.

The GOP is not insurmountable.   They couldn’t give Trump the popular vote.   They couldn’t even get their more favored candidate(s) into the general instead of Trump.   They couldn’t keep Obama out of office, twice.   And they needed the help of the Dems and Hillaru fucking up in 2016 for Trump to win   

Trump is a acting like a fucking coward on twitter and when talking to the media - every accusation is a confession, and every time he talks about Schiff being impeached and punished, he’s broadcasting to the world just how scared he is of Schiff.   Today’s little presser continues to illustrate this.  

[4th&Five 41590]

They also needed a last minute save from Comey. It was a perfect storm of shit that fucked us. 

[Js1 85576]

2 hours ago, Horn Dog said:

It funny that you guys think he needs legitimate votes to win the states he needs.  It's almost like you believe the GOP is not the party of voter suppression, out-rite  fraud, and any means necessary.

In the states Donald Trump needs to win:

Wisconsin - Democrat governor,  3-2 D/R election commission (one R seat is vacant)
Michigan - Democrat governor, Democrat SOS
Pennsylvania - Democrat governor, Democrat SOS
Arizona - Republican governor, Democrat SOS
North Carolina - Democrat governor, D appointed Board of Elections (3-2 D/R split)

[jimmyjazz 46134]

1 hour ago, Junior Miller said:

1)Do you believe the republicans in Congress will turn face finally after 3 years of abject corruption and illegal actions by the white house? 

2)Do you believe the House has enough power to have everyone short of trump who fails to cooperate with subpoenas brought up on charges and removed forcefully? 

3)Or are you confident in the American people punishing the republicans for their corruption and turning the white house and Senate blue in 2020?

This has been discussed ad nauseam.    Some people aren't as fatalistic as others.  Go back and read the past few pages.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

1 hour ago, Junior Miller said:

I'm curious to know how you feel this will come to pass.

1)Do you believe the republicans in Congress will turn face finally after 3 years of abject corruption and illegal actions by the white house? 

2)Do you believe the House has enough power to have everyone short of trump who fails to cooperate with subpoenas brought up on charges and removed forcefully? 

3)Or are you confident in the American people punishing the republicans for their corruption and turning the white house and Senate blue in 2020?

I would like to see where this confidence comes in because I feel #1 is virtually impossible, #2 is a complete unknown, and #3 feels like a crapshoot at absolute best. 

 

Then, even if somehow this administration doesn't completely break American democracy how do we keep whatever is coming next from doing so? Such horrible precedent for allowable behavior by a president's administration has been set over the last 18 years that how do we achieve walking that back? 

I'm counting on the Republicans being completely craven and caring only about their own power.

Let's get one thing out of the way right now--for the most part, Republican senators fundamentally don't understand their voters.  They were, and remain, completely gobsmacked by the racialized populist wave that Trump brought to power.  They don't know how to counter it.  They don't know how big it is.  They don't know how much of it is centered on the personality of Donald Trump, and how much is centered on the ideas.

In short, they're entering this from a position of serious uncertainty.

The polls are getting worse for Trump every day.  The most recent polls show a plurality--and damned near a majority--currently favor impeachment and removal.  Every indication is that we will soon reach a significant majority favoring impeachment and removal as events continue to develop.

But that doesn't matter, right?  So long as Republicans stay with Trump, right?

Here's the problem--there are preliminary indications that Republicans aren't staying with Trump.  The Wapo poll has about 18% of Republicans favoring removal (and 28% favoring impeachment without removal).  As with everyone else, that number is going up by the day.  I suspect that when Trump said only 25% favor impeaching him, he was disclosing some internal poll of Republicans.

So here's the deal if you're a Republican: You have two concerns in your path to reelection: a primary challenge and a general-election challenge.  And your only concern here is survival.

First, the primary challenge.  If you're John Cornyn, for example, you don't care about a primary challenge after December 9 (i.e., the filing deadline).  But even if you have a primary challenger (as John Cornyn kinda does), if you have 25-30% favoring impeachment and removal, which is where the polls are at, that's probably enough to survive a primary challenge.  Sure, you went against majority opinion, but you'll have plenty of people who will forgive that.

The general election is a lot trickier.  Even in a Republican state like Texas, the current polls are very dangerous.  The Democrats are almost unified, and independents are swinging toward impeachment and removal.  If those numbers go up, it is going to become politically unsustainable to vote against conviction.  

And here's the postscript if you're a Republican senator: Fuck Donald Trump.  If it's a close call--and it's getting to be a close call for a lot of these guys--they're going to abandon Trump. 

[henrygandorf 29194]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The GOP is not insurmountable.   They couldn’t give Trump the popular vote.   They couldn’t even get their more favored candidate(s) into the general instead of Trump.   They couldn’t keep Obama out of office, twice.   And they needed the help of the Dems and Hillaru fucking up in 2016 for Trump to win   

Trump is a acting like a fucking coward on twitter and when talking to the media - every accusation is a confession, and every time he talks about Schiff being impeached and punished, he’s broadcasting to the world just how scared he is of Schiff.   Today’s little presser continues to illustrate this.  

i know in 2016 there were a bunch of people that acted one way, but voted for trump anyway, and lied to the pollsters, and yada yada.

anyone feel like 2020 might be the opposite?  maybe not at the highest levels, but i can see regular people who had been vocal about supporting trump (or at least not super critical, silent and complicit) doing the "right" thing and either not voting or (gasp) voting dem.  i think even those who won't say it are fucking sick of it.  sick of the drama, the tweets, the bad decisions, and the general non-governing.  it's already happening within congress, the senate, and definitely at the state and local levels.  i know personally it's happening with citizens.

i really just don't see him gaining votes these past few years, and turnout will be higher.  i don't see him somehow running warren's disapproval into the mid 50's.  and i don't see the people who just voted "against hillary" running to vote for him either.  i've been saying it for 8 months, but he's about to find out what it's like to be the unlikable name on the ballot.  the name that gets people off the couch.

i don't think voter suppression or any other dirty tricks can stop the drubbing that's coming his way next november.  he had to thread the needle perfectly to win once, and now he thinks he's an expert at it.  he'll run the same campaign and get demolished.

let's just hope we make it to next november.

[Brisketexan 105338]

5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

let's just hope we make it to next november.

[Biff Tannen 45742]

6 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i don't think voter suppression or any other dirty tricks can stop the drubbing that's coming his way next november.  he had to thread the needle perfectly to win once, and now he thinks he's an expert at it.  he'll run the same campaign and get demolished.

let's just hope we make it to next november.

I would like to agree with you, but we need to act like it won't happen.  We can't afford to underestimate this one.