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Big 12 Power Rankings 2019

gmr548

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gmr548

gmr548 16694

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Posted (edited)

With the first conference games set for this week, it's a good time to discuss where things stand in the Big 12. Going in to this year I was pretty certain it'd be the worst B12 in a few years. Woops. Conference is easily top 3 in CFB and looks like it can hold its own with the SEC/B1G. If someone gets through this conference at 12-1 or 13-0, that means they did so with seven or eight wins over top 40 teams in conference, including the CCG. That shit is hard and I'm not sure I see a team capable of doing that this year.

1.) OU: Haven't seen much out of them but when you're four-time defending champs and cruising you get the top spot without too many questions.

2.) Texas: The LSU loss was frustrating because the game waBig 12s right there to be had. Still, at the end of the day, the outcome doesn't mean that much in terms of season goals. Texas is really looking the part of a legit top 10-15 team, even despite defensive questions, but to really solidify that thy have to exorcise the OSU demon in DKR.

GAP - The two above control their own destiny in terms of beating everyone else on the schedule. They can take the absolute best shot from everyone below this and win if they bring their own A game. Far from certain that will happen, obviously, but they are the two clear favorites to meet in Jerryworld.

3.) ISU: Really have to feel for ISU fans. I watched the condensed game (highly recommend btw - good weeknight way to quickly catch a game were interested in but missed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTSB_sf-w8E) and really felt they controlled the game for the most part. That was a brutal way to lose a game and they really need to come out and avoid a hangover, but Purdy is an established high caliber QB and their defense is a proven commodity in this league. Still #3 to me.

4.) TCU: Showing they're still an elite defensive squad when their offense doesn't totally leave them out to dry. 13 points, the only TD of which is in garbage time, and 200 yards of offense is a smothering, dominant performance in modern college football. Purdue was no offensive scrub either - averaging 38 points and 500+ yards coming in. Looks like they're at least pretty good at running the ball this year. They might be one dimensional, but one dimension is better than none. They'll be a tough out if they can be competent enough to protect the ball and not have their defense out there for 40 minutes a game.

5.) KSU: Looked a little sloppy but road P5 wins are hard, especially when it's 100 degrees out and your opponent storms back to take the lead. More than anything, they showed impressive toughness and composure. I was thinking it would be a long year for KSU but I was obviously wrong.

GAP - The three above have shown us something, even if in ISU's case it culminated in a gut-wrenching loss. The next group is either still largely unknown or has already had some pretty serious flaws exposed.

6.) OSU: We know they're well coached and have some studs on offense, so seeing them light up lower level competition is no surprise. You want to see more out of their defense than you have, though. We'll learn a lot more about them this weekend. My early impression is that they won't be a serious league title contender, but they'll jump up and bite at least one team who is. Here's hoping it's OU.

7.) Baylor: Everyone's high on them but we just haven't seen enough to form an opinion. I wish they'd go play someone OOC for once. But I also don't have anything really bad to say - on the field, anyway. So they can go here.

8.) WVU: Nice bounce back win against NC State. Makes the Mizzou loss that much more puzzling because Mizzou is not very good. I'm not sure I see them getting to six wins but everyone who goes to Morgantown needs to come to play if they're starting to build some comfort and confidence in the new regime.

9.) Tech: Weird to say this; the defense looks alright but the offense looked like a mess. Arizona is a downright bad team and Tech couldn't score on them. Alright defenses will still give up plenty of points in this league, if Tech is going to struggle to keep up with that then it may be a long year, and that is to say nothing of the latest Bowman injury.

GAP - I'm sorry, Kansas. The talent gap is still really big.

10.) KU: That was an awesome win for Kansas. Down 10-0, then 17-7, it would have been really easy to roll over on the road, but they didn't. Really happy for the team and the fans. Unfortunately they still don't have the talent to win four league games and get to bowl eligibility, but two conference wins could be attainable. Hosting WVU, perhaps the most winnable game on their conference slate, is a great way to open league play. I hope people actually show up for it. Following that with visits to TCU and Texas with Oklahoma in between is brutal though, especially because TCU will want sweet revenge.

Edited by gmr548
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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

Posted
Posted

Wow. I have it very different:

OU

UT

gap

OSU

Gap

KSU

baylor

ISU 

tcu

tech

gap

wvu

ku

i think it would take a perfect game in the second group to beat the top group. I don’t think the lower two tiers have a chance against the top. However I think the bottom tier could beat one or two of the next tier up. 

I think OSU has the least amount of questions compared to the rest. At the end of the day Gundy is going to score. You don’t know what you’re going to get out of the teams below him. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

I couldn't believe how slow and unathletic WVU looked in the first two games of the season.  But they dominated N.C. State up and down on both sides last week (admittedly, that's a team that'll be lucky to make a bowl game in a weak ACC division).  That said, heading into the Oklahoma game, that has trap game written all over it now.

With WVU being a shit draw this year though, I'm gonna guess that's an 11:00a kickoff for us on either FS1 or ESPNU.  

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texifornia

texifornia 59012

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Posted
1 minute ago, Lobo said:

I couldn't believe how slow and unathletic WVU looked in the first two games of the season.  But they dominated N.C. State up and down on both sides last week (admittedly, that's a team that'll be lucky to make a bowl game in a weak ACC division).  That said, heading into the Oklahoma game, that has trap game written all over it now.

With WVU being a shit draw this year though, I'm gonna guess that's an 11:00a kickoff for us on either FS1 or ESPNU.  

I'll be there and WVU made it their homecoming game so it'll be packed. I'd rather have a more leisurely tailgate-to-blackout vibe versus pounding moonshine in the am.

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I couldn't believe how slow and unathletic WVU looked in the first two games of the season.  But they dominated N.C. State up and down on both sides last week (admittedly, that's a team that'll be lucky to make a bowl game in a weak ACC division).  That said, heading into the Oklahoma game, that has trap game written all over it now.

With WVU being a shit draw this year though, I'm gonna guess that's an 11:00a kickoff for us on either FS1 or ESPNU.  

I don't see WVU as a big trap game.   Coming off a bye week and after that shit last year no reason to not be focused for that game.  

Back to the thread, I also rate OSU a clear #3.   They have the best overall receiver in the conference and best RB/WR combo in conference.    Outside of Texas and OU no other team can sniff their skill position talent.  Similarly I don't think ISU is going to be near as formidable because they lost their stud RB/WR.  They can obviously beat anyone on any given day with that defense but they aren't going to be able to score with most teams. Feel the same about TCU until they prove they have an offense.   I think Baylor is a dark horse but that's pure speculation because they haven't played shit. I had KSU pegged at the bottom but they have been impressive.  

I think the big gap is WVU/Tech/Kansas.  Especially with Bowman out I'll be pretty surprised if they don't finish 8-10.

Edited by Skipper
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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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Posted

I guess I would say that in years past the middle of the pack has been closer to the top of the pack than the bottom. Meaning an ISU or KSU could take down an OU/UT with a good performance and would blow out the bottom feeders with a decent performance. This year it feels like OU/UT are pretty much untouchable unless something special happens and the bottom tier could beat a middling teams with a good performance. I think the top of the conference is strong. The middle is very soft in my opinion. 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12620

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Posted
33 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

I guess I would say that in years past the middle of the pack has been closer to the top of the pack than the bottom. Meaning an ISU or KSU could take down an OU/UT with a good performance and would blow out the bottom feeders with a decent performance. This year it feels like OU/UT are pretty much untouchable unless something special happens and the bottom tier could beat a middling teams with a good performance. I think the top of the conference is strong. The middle is very soft in my opinion. 

See, I disagree with this.

While OU and Texas are clearly the two best teams, I think that the middle of the pack could beat either one with a strong performance.

If KSU doesn’t turn the ball over they could beat anyone in this league with the way they played last Saturday.

If TCU gets some T/O’s and short fields, they can beat anyone having an off offensive day.

I’d have to assume Baylor will put up points which makes them formidable. 

OSU is OSU. They can score and with some defensive stops, they’ll have a chance to outscore anyone (which = a win if my math is correct.)

Iowa St. In my mind is a TCU with a less good defense but a more good offense..... so all in all they are more gooder than TCU.

Who’s the most goodest of all these? IDK and I think it’ll be fun to watch. 

My guess as of now:

1. OU

2. UT

3. IOWA ST.

4. Kstate

5. TCU

6. OSU

7. Baylor

8. WVU

9. Tech

10. Kansas

 

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JBJ

JBJ 3819

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Posted

1) OU, UT

3) ISU, KSU, Baylor, OSU

7) TCU, WVU, TT, KU

Tier 2 is stronger than usual and will deliver at least one loss to both T1 teams.

I don't think there's a "bad" (1-8) team in the BigXII this year, but the jury is still out on Kansas/Tech.

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

Posted
Posted (edited)

I refuse to believe in Baylor still. They still have a short roster so we’ll see how things play out. 

On the point about the middle playing well could beat the top, if KU plays like we did against BC then we could still beat wvu, tech, KSU (home game) and maybe isu or tcu. There is no chance in hell KU is going to be bowl eligible. So by my logic I greatly discount the “can play with anyone”. KSU and Baylor look decent right now. They have also played very KSU and Baylor schedules with the exception of the MSST game. 

I just haven’t been impressed with the rest of the conference outside UT and OU. 

Looking at schedules, the first 2 weeks of conference play is going to paint a fairly clear picture of how the league will play out. 

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Dirk X West

Dirk X West 772

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Iceman said:

Ahhh We’re aggy now, comparing quality losses.

J/k, Your point is valid.  I have zero confidence that we would be favored over KU or WVUif we were playing this week.

Good thing it’s a bye.

Its power rankings; they're inherently stupid and meaningless.   The only thing that matters - unless you're a playoff contender - is the league standings.

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angelos's frog

angelos's frog 83

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Posted

TCU's offense is a work in progress.  We will know a lot more about it after SMU this weekend and KU the next.  Duggan is probably going to be the starter for the rest of the season unless he crashes and burns in those games.  He's got the arm, he just needs to take a breath and play with a little less adrenaline.  Our defense and our running game will be stout but we won't be able to rely completely on the run game in conference.  Duggan is going to have to make defenses pay for loading the box.  If he can, I think TCU is at worst the 3rd-4th best team in the conference and could be a contender.

If he's not up to the task, my guess is we go to Collins or Matthew Baldwin.  Delton is not going to be anything other than a change of pace guy who takes a series or two per game from here on out. 

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The Hot Dog Buffet

The Hot Dog Buffet 1314

Posted
Posted

I think ISU has to be at the bottom of the KSU/Baylor/OSU jumble. They should be better than that, but so far they have managed to win an overtime game at home vs Northern Iowa and lose at home to Iowa. They haven't shown any signs of being a good football team this season, and I'd only be willing to bet on them beating KU, WVU, and maybe Tech on a neutral field at this point.

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sidis

sidis 10015

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Posted

isu fucking sucks.  they have been exposed.

there is a lot of underrating of osu and baylor going on here.

1) ou gets the benefit of the doubt from winning every big 12 championship seemingly ever.

2) texas maybe...we'll see on saturday.

3) osu -or- baylor -or- ksu

6) tcu

7) ttu -or- wvu -or- isu

10) ku

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gmr548

gmr548 16694

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

I think ISU has to be at the bottom of the KSU/Baylor/OSU jumble. They should be better than that, but so far they have managed to win an overtime game at home vs Northern Iowa and lose at home to Iowa. They haven't shown any signs of being a good football team this season, and I'd only be willing to bet on them beating KU, WVU, and maybe Tech on a neutral field at this point.

Northern Iowa is a consistently strong FCS program and was a FCS playoff team last year. They also view Iowa and Iowa State like in state rivals. They routinely hang with Iowa and ISU. They are also better than anyone on Baylor's OOC and possibly OSU's. I wouldn't shit on that win too much relative to OSU or Baylor's accomplishments.

Edited by gmr548
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Farkimedes

Farkimedes 23

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Posted

OU - sure they suck, but they're already really fucking good

GAP

Following teams could be in Tier 1, but have one major flaw.

UT - the secondary is bad. not, "is bad for their talent". just bad. I think they can get much better over the course of the season, but there as enough question marks there, particularly at CB, when I can't see them in the top tier.

Baylor - mediocre front. They moved to a 3 -2 -5, but they only have one LB on the roster that isn't terrible, and they only have one plus guy on their DL who isn't a good fit for the two gapping stuff they want to do now. People seem confused how Baylor got good again, but it turns out just taking NFL quality athletes regardless of whether they can play football and hoping you can turn them into players has a higher hit rate then a guy that knows where to be, but runs a 4.9.

TCU - QB

GAP

OSU 

ISU - That OL is awful. They ran duos at one point in the 3rd quarter against NIU, and somehow ISU couldn't move a single NIU DL even though they doubled two of the DL. Without Butler and Montgomery, I don't see how that offense can generate enough points. 

KSU 

GAP

Tech

WVU

GAP

Kansas

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ztejas

ztejas 44224

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Farkimedes said:

OU - sure they suck, but they're already really fucking good

GAP

Following teams could be in Tier 1, but have one major flaw.

UT - the secondary is bad. not, "is bad for their talent". just bad. I think they can get much better over the course of the season, but there as enough question marks there, particularly at CB, when I can't see them in the top tier.

Baylor - mediocre front. They moved to a 3 -2 -5, but they only have one LB on the roster that isn't terrible, and they only have one plus guy on their DL who isn't a good fit for the two gapping stuff they want to do now. People seem confused how Baylor got good again, but it turns out just taking NFL quality athletes regardless of whether they can play football and hoping you can turn them into players has a higher hit rate then a guy that knows where to be, but runs a 4.9.

TCU - QB

GAP

OSU 

ISU - That OL is awful. They ran duos at one point in the 3rd quarter against NIU, and somehow ISU couldn't move a single NIU DL even though they doubled two of the DL. Without Butler and Montgomery, I don't see how that offense can generate enough points. 

KSU 

GAP

Tech

WVU

GAP

Kansas

OU has played fucking nobody and has just as many question marks as Texas. 

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12623

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's kind of hilarious watching people who hyped us pre-season be all "OMG THEY'RE TERRIBLE" right now.

We were 1-3 to start the year last year.  That included an uglier loss to Iowa, a meh win over Akron in Ames, a close-ish loss to OU, and an absolute shit show against TCU.  When we played you guys it was for a berth in the conference championship game.

We were 2-2 going into the OU game in 2017 with comfortable wins over UNI and Akron, another choke job against Iowa, and a loss to you guys where our offense was completely dominated.

This is what Campbell teams do.  Our offensive line actually performed very well against Iowa.  The only front 7 we'll see the rest of the year that's better than Iowa's is yours.  Our play calling got to be extremely conservative, and it cost us the game.  We statistically dominated Iowa, but found ways to lose.  That's mental.  Our offense could move the ball, but Campbell turtles against Ferentz.  We punted from Iowa's 37 for Christ's sake.  We always seems to get over it by the time conference play rolls around, and until that doesn't happen, I'm going to suspect it will happen.

We deserve to be down the power rankings right now, but if you think what you've seen in the first two games means anything about how the season will pan out, you haven't been paying much attention the last few years.

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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closetojumping

closetojumping 65391

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Posted

I don’t get the continued faith in Iowa State. Matt Campbell is an excellent coach and I’ve been hyping him since they hired him. They play good, tough football. I’m sure they’ll finish 7-5 or 8-4, either of which is great for ISU heading into a bowl. 

That considered, they lost their best players to the draft, they’ve looked like shit (I fucking watched the games - they looked like shit), they’re Iowa State, and they’re playing in a strong Big 12 this year. 

They were overhyped. They’re fine in the 3-7 range, but I view them as below at least TCU right now, personally, and probably KSU. Both of those schools played decent teams from other P5 conferences on the road and won. They both played tough and they played excellent defense in doing so. Advantage to both of them over ISU. 

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12623

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I don’t get the continued faith in Iowa State. Matt Campbell is an excellent coach and I’ve been hyping him since they hired him. They play good, tough football. I’m sure they’ll finish 7-5 or 8-4, either of which is great for ISU heading into a bowl. 

That considered, they lost their best players to the draft, they’ve looked like shit (I fucking watched the games - they looked like shit), they’re Iowa State, and they’re playing in a strong Big 12 this year. 

They were overhyped. They’re fine in the 3-7 range, but I view them as below at least TCU right now, personally, and probably KSU. Both of those schools played decent teams from other P5 conferences on the road and won. They both played tough and they played excellent defense in doing so. Advantage to both of them over ISU. 

You kind of contradict yourself in the first paragraph.  If we finish 8-4, we're probably in the top 4 in the league.  8-4 is very possible, and as you note fucking great by our standards.

If you've watched us early the last few years, you would know that we looked like shit in the first few games.

I never saw us as a 10-2 type team that could unseat UT or OU, but I thought we could be the definite #3 like we were last year, and nothing I've seen has changed my mind - mostly because it's the exact same thing I've seen the past couple of years.

Maybe I'm just a homer and will look a dumb ass when we go full Iowa State and finish 3-9, but nothing about the start of this season is off-script for the Campbell tenure thus far.  What's different is the external hype, and the realization that the people providing it weren't watching that closely in the past.

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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SnowAggy

SnowAggy 154

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I don’t get the continued faith in Iowa State. Matt Campbell is an excellent coach and I’ve been hyping him since they hired him. They play good, tough football. I’m sure they’ll finish 7-5 or 8-4, either of which is great for ISU heading into a bowl. 

That considered, they lost their best players to the draft, they’ve looked like shit (I fucking watched the games - they looked like shit), they’re Iowa State, and they’re playing in a strong Big 12 this year. 

They were overhyped. They’re fine in the 3-7 range, but I view them as below at least TCU right now, personally, and probably KSU. Both of those schools played decent teams from other P5 conferences on the road and won. They both played tough and they played excellent defense in doing so. Advantage to both of them over ISU. 

I think this is spot on. We were absolutely over-hyped pre season.  I think the defense is probably the third or fourth best in the league but the offense isn't close to that.

As you note it defies logic to put ISU ahead of TCU or KSU right now based on their performance.  OSU is also ahead of ISU based on their offensive output thus far.  And OU & UT are at the top.  A lot of us picked the trip to BU as a loss pre-season so personally I've got us behind them too right now.

ISU can finish third if and only if the offensive line experiences some really remarkable growth over the next two weeks.  It's possible, but this team has 6-6 written all over them right now.  They don't know how, or just cannot finish games.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12623

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SnowAggy said:

I think this is spot on. We were absolutely over-hyped pre season.  I think the defense is probably the third or fourth best in the league but the offense isn't close to that.

As you note it defies logic to put ISU ahead of TCU or KSU right now based on their performance.  OSU is also ahead of ISU based on their offensive output thus far.  And OU & UT are at the top.  A lot of us picked the trip to BU as a loss pre-season so personally I've got us behind them too right now.

ISU can finish third if and only if the offensive line experiences some really remarkable growth over the next two weeks.  It's possible, but this team has 6-6 written all over them right now.  They don't know how, or just cannot finish games.

I'm far more concerned about our play calling than our line play after Saturday.  Good-Jones all but erased Epenesa.  They were much better against Iowa than UNI.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 65391

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

You kind of contradict yourself in the first paragraph.  If we finish 8-4, we're probably in the top 4 in the league.  8-4 is very possible, and as you note fucking great by our standards.

If you've watched us early the last few years, you would know that we looked like shit in the first few games.

I never saw us as a 10-2 type team that could unseat UT or OU, but I thought we could be the definite #3 like we were last year, and nothing I've seen has changed my mind - mostly because it's the exact same thing I've seen the past couple of years.

Maybe I'm just a homer and will look a dumb ass when we go full Iowa State and finish 3-9, but nothing about the start of this season is off-script for the Campbell tenure thus far.  What's different is the external hype, and the realization that the people providing it weren't watching that closely in the past.

3 losses in the conference probably puts a team in the 4-6 range in terms of finish. Texas and OU could both easily finish with 1 loss or 0 for one of them. Another set of teams could easily all wind up cluttered around 3-4 losses. I don’t see what I wrote as contradictory regarding record, but I guess I haven’t put a matrix together on probable outcomes either. 

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12623

Posted
Posted
Just now, closetojumping said:

3 losses in the conference probably puts a team in the 4-6 range in terms of finish. Texas and OU could both easily finish with 1 loss or 0 for one of them. Another set of teams could easily all wind up cluttered around 3-4 losses. I don’t see what I wrote as contradictory regarding record, but I guess I haven’t put a matrix together on probable outcomes either. 

Fair enough.

I think the general point that the people who had us as a dark horse missed the mark is an accurate one.  ISU isn't going to the Big 12 championship, but then again most of our fans never expected that either.  It was just a trendy click bait take thrown around all off season

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

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Posted

I'll be interested to see how TCU looks this weekend.  SMU is pretty decent this year with Buechelle -  basically Big 12 Lite.  If they completely shut SMU down and start to get cranking on offense, they could be a dark horse.   I think likely they drop one of @ISU or @KSU but it certainly wouldn't shock me if they are undefeated when we roll in there on 10/26.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12623

Posted
Posted
Just now, Skipper said:

I'll be interested to see how TCU looks this weekend.  SMU is pretty decent this year with Buechelle -  basically Big 12 Lite.  If they completely shut SMU down and start to get cranking on offense, they could be a dark horse.   I think likely they drop one of @ISU or @KSU but it certainly wouldn't shock me if they are undefeated when we roll in there on 10/26.

It does seem that Gary Patterson always follows a slump year with a good one.

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