2019 Louisiana governor race

[Gatorubet 30099]

16 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

This aged well.

 

Wait - so turns out all politics are local????  Who knew?

[Gatorubet 30099]

6 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Yeah but the food is great. 

Sorry about your car insurance rates though. Thought that issue would put the republicans over the top. 

Since it is just the usual tort reform fiction, we'll be OK.

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, zork said:

 

2015 results:

Nominee	John Bel Edwards	David Vitter
Party	Democratic	Republican
Popular vote	646,924	505,940
Percentage	56.1%	43.9%

 

2019 results:

Nominee	John Bel Edwards	Eddie Rispone
Party	Democratic	Republican
Popular vote	774,469	734,128
Percentage	51.3%	48.7%

I’m glad JBE is re-elected, but I have to be honest. I’m disappointed by those numbers. JBE is not some loser like Matt Bevin. He has a 52% approval rating and only a 31% disapproval rating. Why did GOP turnout increase so much relative to 2015? This really shouldn’t have been close, but it was. Just makes me think that too many people with an IQ below 75 listened to trump and did what he says. I can’t fathom why anyone would go to trumps Nuremberg rallies and do what he says.

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m glad JBE is re-elected, but I have to be honest. I’m disappointed by those numbers. JBE is not some loser like Matt Bevin. He has a 52% approval rating and only a 31% disapproval rating. Why did GOP turnout increase so much relative to 2015? This really shouldn’t have been close, but it was. Just makes me think that too many people with an IQ below 75 listened to trump and did what he says. I can’t fathom why anyone would go to trumps Nuremberg rallies and do what he says.

You realize Louisiana is the 3rd dumbest state and 2nd poorest state in the Union.  It's a miracle those motherfuckers can figure out how to work a voting booth, let alone hold an election.  Of course, most of those dumb country bumpkins are going to vote against their self interests.  

 

[Gil Bang 25898]

49 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Wait - so turns out all politics are local????  Who knew?

Tip knew. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

8 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

You realize Louisiana is the 3rd dumbest state and 2nd poorest state in the Union.  It's a miracle those motherfuckers can figure out how to work a voting booth, let alone hold an election.  Of course, most of those dumb country bumpkins are going to vote against their self interests.  

 

And Alabama almost elected a pedofile.

[zork 629]

Whatevs, just showing the facts.  Spin at will.  Trump appears to possibly cause more turnout at minimum?More data to peruse from October 12th of this year:(seems to show a slight decrease in overall R vote percentage(from primary to runoff) while the overall vote totals show nearly ~170K or more total votes more overall)

 

Primary for Governor of Louisiana

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		John Bel Edwards (D)	46.6	625,970
✔		Eddie Rispone (R)	27.4	368,319
		Ralph Abraham (R)	23.6	317,149
		Oscar Dantzler (D)	0.8	10,993
		Patrick Landry (R)	0.8	10,966
		Gary Landrieu (Independent)	0.8	10,084

---

https://ballotpedia.org/October_12,_2019,_election_results

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. Source

Total votes: 1,343,481

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

My LSU kid (registered in N'Awlins) forgot to early or write in vote.   So he had the good sense to set up a date in New Orleans and drive from Red Stick to vote here...and hopefully get lucky tonight.

you, sir, are a fine father.

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, zork said:

Whatevs, just showing the facts.  Spin at will.  Trump appears to possibly cause more turnout at minimum?More data to peruse from October 12th of this year:(seems to show a slight decrease in overall R vote percentage(from primary to runoff) while the overall vote totals show nearly ~170K or more total votes more overall)

 

Primary for Governor of Louisiana

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		John Bel Edwards (D)	46.6	625,970
✔		Eddie Rispone (R)	27.4	368,319
		Ralph Abraham (R)	23.6	317,149
		Oscar Dantzler (D)	0.8	10,993
		Patrick Landry (R)	0.8	10,966
		Gary Landrieu (Independent)	0.8	10,084

---

https://ballotpedia.org/October_12,_2019,_election_results

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. Source

Total votes: 1,343,481

He does increase turnout. Among urban and especially suburban voters motivated to vote against him. 

[Bookman 4610]

11 hours ago, Xian said:

The melt on tigerdroppings is funny. The are shocked their orange god couldn’t win the mansion for them 

They're a bunch of nuts. No wonder Louisiana is last at everything.

[JimmyJames 12271]

Louisiana is a state chock full of good people who are pretty dumb who make good food who like to drink who are fun to party with who need to be reminded by the local news to not go outside during thunderstorms who just rejected trumps sorry ass. 

Theyre ok in my book. 

[The People’s Elbow 707]

“Rispone didn’t lose the election. He just ran out of votes.” -Zork

[horn4life 3755]

Trump went out three times to try and make Louisiana tip in the GOP's direction.  I do think that Trump increases GOP turnout, but not enough to push past the folks who are in general no longer considering voting Republican this cycle, and potentially beyond.  I think that without the Trump show coming to town repetitively the gap is more for Edwards.  But who the hell really knows anything beyond the fact that two governorships, and control of Virgina went to the Dems.

[zork 629]

6 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

“Rispone didn’t lose the election. He just ran out of votes.” -Zork

Incumbent won by significantly less percentage points than previous race, at minimum.  Trump clearly tried to make a difference in the race but his candidate still lost.

[JimmyJames 12271]

14 minutes ago, zork said:

Incumbent won by significantly less percentage points than previous race, at minimum.  Trump clearly tried to make a difference in the race but his candidate still lost.

He lost the governor race in a state he won in 2016 by 20 points. It’s a huge black eye and dear leader would know that if he wasn’t narcissistic personality disorder which means he will refuse, just like you, to acknowledge the significance of this loss. The GOP has lost the suburbs, probably for a long time. Sweet dreams. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

20 minutes ago, zork said:

Incumbent won by significantly less percentage points than previous race, at minimum.  Trump clearly tried to make a difference in the race but his candidate still lost.

I guess you won then🌈. Our bad. 

[zork 629]

11 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

He lost the governor race in a state he won in 2016 by 20 points. It’s a huge black eye and dear leader would know that if he wasn’t narcissistic personality disorder which means he will refuse, just like you, to acknowledge the significance of this loss. The GOP has lost the suburbs, probably for a long time. Sweet dreams. 

Trump clearly tried to make a difference in the race but his candidate still lost.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

32 minutes ago, zork said:

Trump clearly tried to make a difference in the race but his candidate still lost.

Rispone ran as a Trumpkin.  That was his sales pitch from the beginning, it’s why he made the runoff over the other Republican.  Trump entertained his candidacy in the run off because he was so insanely pro Trump.  Rispone’s plan backfired because it motivated more people to vote against him than for him.  

A more moderate Republican could have probably beat Edwards. 

This race was mostly on Rispone’s campaign decisions which handed the governorship to Edwards because of Trump. 

Trump is a political liability more than an asset for republicans, at least in statewide Louisiana races. 

Edited November 18, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Voldemort86 2259]

For history purposes and comparisons sake,

 

what were off year races like during the obama years? Did Obama assume every race was about him? Did Obama show up to campaign in random races all of the time? Or is this just some reality tv star idiot who can’t stand NOT being the center of attention ever?

what is the precedent?

 

[Tuco 5076]

The big take-away from this and the Kentucky race: polling is roughly accurate, maybe slightly underestimating Dem chances.  That should scare the shit out of Trump and the Republicans. 

 

[zork 629]

6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

The big take-away from this and the Kentucky race: polling is roughly accurate, maybe slightly underestimating Dem chances.  That should scare the shit out of Trump and the Republicans. 

 

The thing that scares this Republican is the thought that Hillary is going to swoop in and solve the Democrat shit show that is currently operating with their not going to listen to Obama's advice current production.

 That, and my proclivity for the run-on sentence.

Edited November 18, 2019 by zork

[Js1 85109]

5 minutes ago, Tuco said:

The big take-away from this and the Kentucky race: polling is roughly accurate, maybe slightly underestimating Dem chances.  That should scare the shit out of Trump and the Republicans. 

 

Kentucky:
RCP average:  Bevin 46.5; Beshear 45.75
Actual:  Bevin 48.8; Beshear 49.2

Miss: Bevin 2.3;  Beshear 3.45

Louisiana Run-Off:
RCP Average: Edwards 47.3; Rispone 46.3
Actual: Edwards 51.3; Rispone 48.7

Miss: Edwards 4.0; Rispone 2.4

 

[Js1 85109]

3 minutes ago, zork said:

The thing that scares this Republican is the thought that Hillary is going to swoop in and solve the Democrat shit show that is currently operating with their not going to listen to Obama's advice current production.

 That, and my proclivity for the run-on sentence.

The thing that scares this rational human being is that you literally cannot stop thinking of Hillary.

She's not running  She isn't going to run.  Get her name out of your mouth and off your brain. 

[zork 629]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The thing that scares this rational human being is that you literally cannot stop thinking of Hillary.

She's not running  She isn't going to run.  Get her name out of your mouth and off your brain. 

scares you just to think about it, amirite?

 

Spoiler

https://truepundit.com/hillary-clinton-says-many-many-many-people-want-her-to-join-2020-democratic-primary/

 

Edited November 18, 2019 by zork

[Brisketexan 104605]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The thing that scares this rational human being is that you literally cannot stop thinking of Hillary.

She's not running  She isn't going to run.  Get her name out of your mouth and off your brain. 

They'll be running and arguing against the idea of Hillary 50 years after she's dead.  They're a bankrupt movement with no decency, no ideas...nothing except fearmongering of the Clinton bogeyman.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

I really don't think Hillary is going to do that. At least I don't want for her to do that. She and Bill really ought to go do some charitable functions and appearances and such. They can read to children (like Laura Bush) or help build houses or if none of that appeals then go fishing or skiing or actually have a face to face conversation with the people in Arkansas they used to work for.

[zork 629]

DNC sending JS1's message perhaps? Reverse Hillary on herself?  Or just a random plane mechanical issue coinky-dink?

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/plane-with-hillary-clinton-aboard-grounded-in-nyc-after-mechanical-issue

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Kentucky:
RCP average:  Bevin 46.5; Beshear 45.75
Actual:  Bevin 48.8; Beshear 49.2

Miss: Bevin 2.3;  Beshear 3.45

Louisiana Run-Off:
RCP Average: Edwards 47.3; Rispone 46.3
Actual: Edwards 51.3; Rispone 48.7

Miss: Edwards 4.0; Rispone 2.4

 

The polling seems spot on. The RCP average includes voters that are undecided, hence why it doesn't equal 100 but the actual has equal 100.  Remove the unknown from the equation and you have the following:

Louisiana Run-Off:
RCP Nice Guy Eddie adjusted Average: Edwards 50.5; Rispone 49.4
Actual: Edwards 51.3; Rispone 48.7

Miss: Edwards .8; Rispone .7 

[Pancho 44475]

This thread has been zork'd

[Jack Straw 2953]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They're a bankrupt movement with no decency, no ideas...nothing except fearmongering of the Clinton bogeyman.

 

while wholly embracing and endorsing unprecedented corruption, incompetence, criminality, and outright treason by their own. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

11 hours ago, horn4life said:

Trump went out three times to try and make Louisiana tip in the GOP's direction.  I do think that Trump increases GOP turnout, but not enough to push past the folks who are in general no longer considering voting Republican this cycle, and potentially beyond.  I think that without the Trump show coming to town repetitively the gap is more for Edwards.  But who the hell really knows anything beyond the fact that two governorships, and control of Virgina went to the Dems.

There's not doubt that Trump has a high level of enthusiasm for some voters but I wonder if he or anyone can move the needle that much. Or perhaps instead of holding rallies in Lake Charles or Bossier City go to the heart of New Orleans. It's difficult to believe that even Trump is down 90-10 in New Orleans as the results in Orleans Parish showed. It almost would have been a statewide tie if only Orleans Parish went 80-20.

 

[Brisketexan 104605]

Just now, Jack Straw said:

while wholly embracing and endorsing unprecedented corruption, incompetence, criminality, and outright treason by their own. 

Step 1) create a fictional narrative that the Clintons are the greatest criminal organization ever known.  They have stolen money from everyone on earth, commit treason while they sleep, and run a pedophile ring out of a pizza place....and on and on.

Step 2) convince yourself that all of that narrative is true.

Step 3) decide "well, if THEY do it, then MY GUY can do it."

Step 4) religiously and unwaveringly support a man who openly commits and/or BRAGS about...bribery, sexual assault, abuse of power, cozying up to our enemies to "trigger the libs," nakedly profiting from his office, etc.

 

It's fucking insane.

[zork 629]

17 minutes ago, Pancho said:

This thread has been zork'd

I get to talk.  You decide whether to listen and how you will respond or not.  

13 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

while wholly embracing and endorsing unprecedented corruption, incompetence, criminality, and outright treason by their own. 

nope.  but that is just the same type of bogeyman y'all accuse Republicans of up thread.

 

10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

There's not doubt that Trump has a high level of enthusiasm for some voters but I wonder if he or anyone can move the needle that much. Or perhaps instead of holding rallies in Lake Charles or Bossier City go to the heart of New Orleans. It's difficult to believe that even Trump is down 90-10 in New Orleans as the results in Orleans Parish showed. It almost would have been a statewide tie if only Orleans Parish went 80-20.

 

this is good analysis.  Trump on Trump is probably a bit more successful in driving his potential base than Trump on someone else.  Shades of gray though.  Hopefully Biden can beat him.

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Step 1) create a fictional narrative that the Clintons are the greatest criminal organization ever known.  They have stolen money from everyone on earth, commit treason while they sleep, and run a pedophile ring out of a pizza place....and on and on.

Step 2) convince yourself that all of that narrative is true.

Step 3) decide "well, if THEY do it, then MY GUY can do it."

Step 4) religiously and unwaveringly support a man who openly commits and/or BRAGS about...bribery, sexual assault, abuse of power, cozying up to our enemies to "trigger the libs," nakedly profiting from his office, etc.

 

It's fucking insane.

Clinton suiciding someone is a meme at this point, not even worth talking about whether it is true at all.

Angry Brisket talking his paranoia pointing to the right vs white Cat enjoying his veggies while laughing at Brisket.

Edited November 18, 2019 by zork

[Brisketexan 104605]

10 minutes ago, zork said:

I get to talk.  You decide whether to listen and how you will respond or not.  

nope.  but that is just the same type of bogeyman y'all accuse Republicans of up thread.

 

this is good analysis.  Trump on Trump is probably a bit more successful in driving his potential base than Trump on someone else.  Shades of gray though.  Hopefully Biden can beat him.

Clinton suiciding someone is a meme at this point, not even worth talking about whether it is true at all.

Angry Brisket talking his paranoia pointing to the right vs white Cat enjoying his veggies while laughing at Brisket.

Sure, have fun with that.  While y'all vote in zombie-like lockstep for Trump and Trumpism, all in the name of "But Hillary," for time immemorial.

Y'all are a fucking caricature, and you don't even have a clue that you are.

[zork 629]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sure, have fun with that.  While y'all vote in zombie-like lockstep for Trump and Trumpism, all in the name of "But Hillary," for time immemorial.

Y'all are a fucking caricature, and you don't even have a clue that you are.

Even Obama is telling y'all to chill, to get a clue.  

[Pancho 44475]

12 minutes ago, zork said:

I get to talk.  You decide whether to listen and how you will respond or not.  

I never said you don't get to talk.  I did listen, and I responded with "this thread has been zork'd."

[zork 629]

Just now, Pancho said:

I never said you don't get to talk.  I did listen, and I responded with "this thread has been zork'd."

yup, a fine response, indeed.

[Brisketexan 104605]

4 minutes ago, zork said:

Even Obama is telling y'all to chill, to get a clue.  

Is he?  Who is "y'all?"  Are you talking about the far left wing of the party?  Yep, he is.

Where's the voice of reason on the right, telling y'all to stop hanging out with fucking nazis?  Telling y'all to stop making white nationalists chief advisers to the president?  Telling y'all that Hillary ain't running this year?  

Shouldn't you be charging into a pizza parlor somewhere?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

14 minutes ago, zork said:

Even Obama is telling y'all to chill, to get a clue.  

Merrick Garland loves chill Obama. 

[The Royal We 3065]

Exactly.  It's the Dems that need to moderate, not the Republicans!  God forbid the GOP pull their head out of their ass and realize their tent has poo smeared all over it and is shrinking every day as more Boomers die.

[zork 629]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Is he?  Who is "y'all?"  Are you talking about the far left wing of the party?  Yep, he is.

Where's the voice of reason on the right, telling y'all to stop hanging out with fucking nazis?  Telling y'all to stop making white nationalists chief advisers to the president?  Telling y'all that Hillary ain't running this year?  

Shouldn't you be charging into a pizza parlor somewhere?

On the pizza parlor scenario, I did spend about 2 hours researching wtf it was all about with the way it was brought up a week or so before the election.  lots of weird/sick art, some interesting but largely generic and non-specific allusions to a smear tactic that didn't have much definitive anything but definite weirdness.  Weirdness isn't illegal.  I said as much on that conspiratorial thread that was blazing on TOS in the weeks before the election.    

You can't tell me that there hasn't been a concerted effort from the left to keep Hillary out of the race.  Insert twitter-verse explosion of tweets mostly subtle but many not so subtle.  You know she wants to get in if the best they can produce is sleepy Biden, etc, etc.

I don't have a say/voice in Pub politics, never did.  I'm just a semi-retired dude with a few rent houses and a family trying to skirt by day by day, paying down the debts, living the Longhorn Texas dwelling Blast-furnace to Baby it's cold outside dream.

 

4 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Exactly.  It's the Dems that need to moderate, not the Republicans!  God forbid the GOP pull their head out of their ass and realize their tent has poo smeared all over it and is shrinking every day as more Boomers die.

Obama said it, not me.

 

edit:  maybe I didn't catch the sarc in your post cause it popped up just as I was finishing my lame response to Master Brisket.

Edited November 18, 2019 by zork

[Serak The Preparer 3424]

35 minutes ago, zork said:

Clinton suiciding someone is a meme at this point, not even worth talking about whether it is true at all.

Ah, the modern conservative.

Emoluments? Bribery? Sexual assault? Treason? All fake news!

But memes? You bet your sweet ass that those are bona fide.

[Brisketexan 104605]

1 minute ago, zork said:

Obama said it, not me.

That's the point, moron.

NOBODY loyal to the Party Of Trump is moving to stop courting, hanging out with, and posing for pictures with fucking nazis, nobody minds that an open white nationalist is a chief adviser to the president, nobody has a problem with him pardoning soldiers who commit war crimes, but not soldiers who served honorably whose only crime is their parents bringing them here illegally, nobody has a problem with him nakedly profiting off of his presidency with constant taxpayer funded trips to his properties, happily taking in hotel dollars from foreign governments trying to curry favor -- shit, I've got work to do, and we could stay here all day.  Suffice it to say that you're not only fine with shitbaggery, you CELEBRATE it.  Guess what, if you're in the bowl dancing around with pieces of shit, you ARE a piece of shit.

[zork 629]

1 minute ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Ah, the modern conservative.

Emoluments? Bribery? Sexual assault? Treason? All fake news!

But memes? You bet your sweet ass that those are bona fide.

Sure, so Biden vs Trump.  We'll see who wins.  If it gets that far.  Looking more and more like it might be PotUS Pence pretty plucking soon.

[SquishMitten 10400]

22 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s great Edwards won but also important to remember my state is still unbelievably stupid.

Holy Gerrymandering, Batman. There are three non-contiguous sections of District 1.

[Prepuce of Doom 20985]

Rispone lost because he didn't refer to his opponent as "John Bel Endwards" enough. 

[Chooky 13302]

12 hours ago, zork said:

Incumbent won by significantly less percentage points than previous race, at minimum.  Trump clearly tried to make a difference in the race but his candidate still lost.

Without looking at all of the numbers for turnout on both sides, I think what you're pointing out is valid, zork.  Republican turnout in the gubernatorial race compared to turnout during the primary probably isn't a relative point, though.  It looks like Trump's appearances put a spike in Republican turnout for the election.  But I also wonder if his presence did the same for the opposition.  I honestly have no idea.  Turnout for Edwards in urban areas increased.  

Trump made 3 appearances in Louisiana in 5 weeks and it still wasn't enough.  And that might reflect more on the GOP candidate than Trump.  I don't know.  3 appearances in 5 weeks in Oregon or even Missouri wouldn't be that alarming if it wasn't enough.  But it seems like that much time devoted in Louisiana not being enough would be a concern for Trump.  

It's also worth remembering that Edwards is pro-Second Amendment and signed one of the nation's most strict anti abortion bills.

[Tom 2959]

53 minutes ago, zork said:

 

You can't tell me that there hasn't been a concerted effort from the left to keep Hillary out of the race.  Insert twitter-verse explosion of tweets mostly subtle but many not so subtle.  You know she wants to get in if the best they can produce is sleepy Biden, etc, etc.

 

Who specifically is stopping Hillary from running for president if she wants to? 

People voicing displeasure on Twitter at the idea of the person who managed to lose to a reality TV scandal magnet with the full backing of the DNC behind her running again isn't stopping her from entering if that's what she wants.

I can see why you'd be itching for a more flawed big named candidate to run again seeing as how Trump polls behind just about any other Democrat running.  Sleepy Joe and Crazy Bernie just don't seem to have the same effect so far as Crooked Hillary.  Fox hasn't had a two decade head start on vilifying them.

Edited November 18, 2019 by Tom

[tx 3 putt 76371]

26 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Holy Gerrymandering, Batman. There are three non-contiguous sections of District 1.

That should be unconstitutional 

[tx 3 putt 76371]

2 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Trump made 3 appearances in Louisiana in 5 weeks and it still wasn't enough.  And that might reflect more on the GOP candidate than Trump.

He avoided The metro Areas like the Vietnam draft