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Facebook AKA “Hydra” Thread

Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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elfenix

elfenix 34181

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1 hour ago, F250 said:

Causing highly visible outages comes with the territory when you work in networking. Everyone gets burned at some point in time, some worse than others. Been there a few times myself.

Biggest "oh shit" moment happened when I was a young pen tester. Someone somewhere fucked up the CIDR that was given to me and I penetrated the wrong network. Found an opening and got carried away as to how far I was able to get into the network.

That moment when you realize you just broke into a Dutch bank without permission.

shocked steve harvey GIF

so that's what you call surprise buttsecks

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F250
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Causing highly visible outages comes with the territory when you work in networking. Everyone gets burned at some point in time, some worse than others. Been there a few times myself. Biggest "oh

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Captainant

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FB was infront of the Senate today - CBS did some good "just the facts" reporting on it

Notably - Chairman Blumenthal compared FB's active and knowing suppression of its own studies that found FB to be damaging - directly to big tobacco's own malfeasance.

Regulation is a-comin I'd think, at least around their "engagement" models for how they monetize disinformation campaigns and drive their message

edit: added the witness's opening statement in the below spoiler. Worth listening to, and specifically outlines some of FB's worst behaviors in "putting their astronomical profits above people". 

Spoiler

 

 

Edited by Captainant
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Satoshi

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On 10/5/2021 at 3:45 PM, Captainant said:

FB was infront of the Senate today - CBS did some good "just the facts" reporting on it

Notably - Chairman Blumenthal compared FB's active and knowing suppression of its own studies that found FB to be damaging - directly to big tobacco's own malfeasance.

Regulation is a-comin I'd think, at least around their "engagement" models for how they monetize disinformation campaigns and drive their message

edit: added the witness's opening statement in the below spoiler. Worth listening to, and specifically outlines some of FB's worst behaviors in "putting their astronomical profits above people". 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Whistleblowing for more censorship. What a hero. Lol  

 

 

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MC Fresh Breath

MC Fresh Breath 4074

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Coincidentally, ran across this today:

Quote

 

Facebook says Apple iOS privacy change will result in $10 billion revenue hit this year

Facebook parent Meta said on Wednesday that the privacy change Apple made to its iOS operating system last year will decrease the social media company’s sales this year by about $10 billion.

“We believe the impact of iOS overall is a headwind on our business in 2022,” Meta CFO Dave Wehner said on a call with analysts after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report. “It’s on the order of $10 billion, so it’s a pretty significant headwind for our business.”

Facebook’s admission is the most concrete data point so far on the impact to the advertising industry of Apple’s App Tracking Transparency feature, which reduces targeting capabilities by limiting advertisers from accessing an iPhone user identifier.

Meta shares sank 23% in extended trading on Wednesday after the company warned about numerous challenges and came up short on user numbers. Facebook said first quarter revenue will be $27 billion to $29 billion, while analysts were expecting that number to exceed $30 billion.

Wehner said the $10 billion revenue hit this year is merely a best guess.

“We’re just estimating what we think is the overall impact of the cumulative iOS changes to where the 2022 revenue forecast is,” Wehner said. “If you aggregate the changes that we’re seeing on iOS, that’s the order of magnitude. We can’t be precise on this. It’s an estimate.”

Apple first introduced the ATT feature in iOS 14.5, which was released for iPhones last year. It’s also included in iOS 15, which is running on 72% of modern iPhones, according to Apple.

ATT consists of popups that ask users whether they want to be tracked when opening up an app. If the user says no, the app developer can no longer access the IDFA, a device ID that’s used to target and measure the effectiveness of online ads.

A study from ad measurement firm AppsFlyer in October suggested that 62% of iPhone users were choosing to opt-out of sharing their IDFA.

The privacy feature disrupts the behind-the-scenes mechanics of many mobile ads, especially those that confirm whether a purchase or download was made. IPhone apps with targeted advertising can instead use SKAdNetwork, an Apple tool built as an alternative, which Apple says is more private.

Online advertising companies have voiced their displeasure with the feature since it was first announced in June 2020, but Facebook has been the loudest in its criticism. In December 2020, Facebook ran a marketing campaign including full-page ads in major newspapers blasting the feature and saying that the change was about “profit, not privacy.”

The next day, Apple CEO Tim Cook used Facebook’s app in a tweet as an example of how the feature works.

Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook’s operating chief, said on Wednesday that ATT would hurt small businesses that rely on digital advertising to grow and are much more dependent than larger companies on personalized ads. It’s a theme Facebook has hit repeatedly in its attacks on Apple.

Sandberg said the changes are diminishing the accuracy of Facebook’s ads, driving up prices based on an outcome like a sale or download. She also said that measuring whether those conversions occur is becoming more difficult.

A day before Facebook’s results, Alphabet blew past estimates with its fourth-quarter numbers, and cited strength in e-commerce ads, an area where Facebook saw weakness.

Wehner suggested that Apple’s changes aren’t having the same impact on search as they are on other types of apps. He referenced how much money Google makes for Apple as the default search engine on the Safari browser.

“Given that Apple continues to take billions of dollars a year from Google Search, the incentive clearly is for this policy discrepancy to continue,” Wehner said.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/02/facebook-says-apple-ios-privacy-change-will-cost-10-billion-this-year.html

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atomheartbevo

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1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

 

I appreciate that people like Shaprio and Bongino act like they are being canceled, but there's a lot more going on.  I would like to know the actual numbers of how often those links were being shared, and how many of those were automatically shared by bots/scripts.  Shapiro and Bongino certainly have their audiences (although mysteriously, none of my (R) relatives/friends/co-workers have anything about either of those two on their social media), but there is so much content being shared on FB, and a shit-ton that's not even in English, that they are probably a tiny drop in the bucket overall.

I would blame TikTok and a few other places that FB doesn't control.  Also, there's more nation- or language-specific social media platforms coming on line or that are adding new features, etc., pulling people away.

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TurkeyChew

TurkeyChew 383

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16 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Facebook rather foolishly decided to become the social network of a bunch of olds spreading with each other bullshit right wing propaganda and they are paying the price for that. 

It appears Facebook didn't make that decision, rather the market made that decision for them. Hence why the focus on Instagram and stealing Snapchat's schtick, to attract teens.

But no social media can currently compete with the force major that is TikTok, currently.

I read that Zuck actually saw the writing on the wall a few quarters back that his social media FB had peaked and would start to plateau/decline, hence the major investment into the metaverse pivot. It's a big bet and doesn't seem to be winning in the short term, but it's pretty strategic and smart of him all things considered. 

Ultimately two things I consider that has me remaining bullish on FB/Meta:

1) Zuck is known to be a fantastic operator and is the only big tech* founder still in functional and practical control of his organization

2) Doing the painful pivot now: any pivot would always be hard and painful, but doing it now while still relevant and big (did 33bn in revenue last quarter) is smart.

 

*Is it fair to still call Facebook/Meta "Big Tech"? With the lost of $200bn in market value overnight, they are worth ~$670bn; all the other "Big Tech" (GOOG, AAPL, AMZN) all worth at least $1.4T.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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15 minutes ago, TurkeyChew said:

It appears Facebook didn't make that decision, rather the market made that decision for them. Hence why the focus on Instagram and stealing Snapchat's schtick, to attract teens.

But no social media can currently compete with the force major that is TikTok, currently.

I read that Zuck actually saw the writing on the wall a few quarters back that his social media FB had peaked and would start to plateau/decline, hence the major investment into the metaverse pivot. It's a big bet and doesn't seem to be winning in the short term, but it's pretty strategic and smart of him all things considered. 

Ultimately two things I consider that has me remaining bullish on FB/Meta:

1) Zuck is known to be a fantastic operator and is the only big tech* founder still in functional and practical control of his organization

2) Doing the painful pivot now: any pivot would always be hard and painful, but doing it now while still relevant and big (did 33bn in revenue last quarter) is smart.

 

*Is it fair to still call Facebook/Meta "Big Tech"? With the lost of $200bn in market value overnight, they are worth ~$670bn; all the other "Big Tech" (GOOG, AAPL, AMZN) all worth at least $1.4T.

He’s a fraud who stole someone else’s technology and idea and became obscenely wealthy from it.  Facebook was always by far the most likely tech company to fail since he’s in charge of it and the market has finally figured that out. This “pivot” is just sheer desperation. 
 

And lol at the market shaped Facebook into what it is. That’s some dumbass shit there even for you. 

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TurkeyChew

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10 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

He’s a fraud who stole someone else’s technology and idea and became obscenely wealthy from it.  Facebook was always by far the most likely tech company to fail since he’s in charge of it and the market has finally figured that out. This “pivot” is just sheer desperation. 
 

And lol at the market shaped Facebook into what it is. That’s some dumbass shit there even for you. 

Yea, I think you are half right in that Facebook was interested in monthly active users (MAU's) more than catering to any specific demographic. They have obviously peaked at, what? 2.9 nearly 3 billion MAUs, so they are having to shift. Here is his quote about the demographics and the new strategy to specifically focus on getting away from the olds because they are no longer concerned about MAUs.

Quote

We also expect to make significant changes to Instagram and Facebook in the next year to further lean into video and make Reels a more central part of the experience. One aspect of this is given all our apps, the goal of being the best services for young adults, which we defined as ages 18 to 29. Historically, young adults have been a strong base and that’s important because they are the future. But over the last decade, as the audience that uses our apps has expanded so much and we focused on serving everyone, our services have gotten dialed to be the best for most people who use them, rather than, specifically, for young adults.

I disagree with you on Zuck from a businessman. He's proven himself to be more than capable as the CEO, IMO. Making hard decisions like this pivot is staring down the barrel of a dilemma and trying to make the best decision, again, IMO.

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TurkeyChew

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20 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

He’s a fraud who stole someone else’s technology and idea and became obscenely wealthy from it.  Facebook was always by far the most likely tech company to fail since he’s in charge of it and the market has finally figured that out. This “pivot” is just sheer desperation. 
 

And lol at the market shaped Facebook into what it is. That’s some dumbass shit there even for you. 

Also to your point about Zuck, I read this interesting analysis which you might appreciate reading and synthesizing (quoted below is not my own):

Quote

 

Working through ATT is going to be painful and take years, but Meta is better equipped to figure it out than anyone else in the 3rd-party advertising space (Meta did note on the earnings call that Google doesn’t face the same headwinds because Safari isn’t covered by ATT).

This format shift, meanwhile, is riskier than the addition of Stories: that prior shift moved engagement and temporarily reduced monetization, but Stories were additive to the Feed. Replacing the feed means not only shifting engagement but also reducing very valuable inventory. Moreover, the older users that Facebook is de-prioritizing are also likely to have more disposable income and may be more valuable to advertisers.

The true risk to Meta, though, is (and always has been) a loss of engagement to other companies. Winning users back is much more challenging than figuring out how to shift advertisers to another spot on your own properties. This battle matters more than anything for Meta’s long-term value.

To that end, just as Facebook’s product changes are evidence that TikTok is real competition, today’s stock price drop is also evidence of the benefit of founder control. Meta could have delayed its response to TikTok until ATT worked its way through the system, but instead the company is fundamentally changing its products at the very moment its results are the most impacted by Apple’s changes. The easier decision, particularly for a manager, would have been to wait a quarter or two, when the comps would have been easier, and the excuses clearer, but founders have the freedom to prioritize existential risks over financial ones.

Of course they also have the freedom to spend $10 billion on a speculative bet like the Metaverse, an amount that will “increase meaningfully” in 2022; Meta continues to be first and foremost a bet on Zuckerberg.

 

Ultimately, the future of Meta is the big bet on the Metaverse.

Interestingly enough, on this day in 2004, Facebook was launched. Been a pretty awesome 18 year run--99% of organizations would dream of the last 18 years-- no matter how you slice it.

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TurkeyChew

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18 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

That does seem to be the rallying cry today.  Lots of messages about how FB's censorship is what led to this collapse.

What? I've been reading about Meta for a day and a half now and have not read anything even close to this. Can you post some links or copy/paste?

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atomheartbevo

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7 hours ago, TurkeyChew said:

I read that Zuck actually saw the writing on the wall a few quarters back that his social media FB had peaked and would start to plateau/decline, hence the major investment into the metaverse pivot. It's a big bet and doesn't seem to be winning in the short term, but it's pretty strategic and smart of him all things considered. 

The metaverse pivot has been coming for years.  It's been 8 years since FB bought Oculus, and they didn't do it for shits and giggles, and it wasn't because Zuckerberg happened across a copy of Snow Crash.

But I think they have a fairly small window in terms of years to get it right, because they have multiple companies that are almost as big or even bigger than they are looking at VR/metaverse stuff (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Sony), and these companies have the hardware experience/infrastructure, or can buy it.

And somebody is going to finally make a VR SecondLife that actually gains traction with the masses, and that isn't simply a place for furries, GOR fans, and flying penises, and the tools to do so are getting cheaper and easier to use every day. Plus, it would be fairly easy for a smaller company who makes that app to actually stand up the infrastructure in very rapid fashion using Amazon hardware.

I don't know who will pull it off, but I can tell you it won't be Sony - they've had the hardware and software/tools for some time now with the PlayStation platform and accessories, and they can't seem to figure out what they want to do.

Edit: Not Gor football club fans, this GOR:

Tarnsman_of_gor_vallejo_cover.jpg

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45500

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

But I think they have a fairly small window in terms of years to get it right, because they have multiple companies that are almost as big or even bigger than they are looking at VR/metaverse stuff (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Sony), and these companies have the hardware experience/infrastructure, or can buy it.

So the ultimate goal here is basically a Matrix type situation right?  Except instead of machines, it's just corporations?  

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atomheartbevo

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4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So the ultimate goal here is basically a Matrix type situation right?  Except instead of machines, it's just corporations?  

The ultimate goal is to come up with the first mainstream VR MMO social media platforms that allows middle-aged people to virtually fuck each other without their spouses knowing.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The metaverse pivot has been coming for years.  It's been 8 years since FB bought Oculus, and they didn't do it for shits and giggles, and it wasn't because Zuckerberg happened across a copy of Snow Crash.

But I think they have a fairly small window in terms of years to get it right, because they have multiple companies that are almost as big or even bigger than they are looking at VR/metaverse stuff (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Sony), and these companies have the hardware experience/infrastructure, or can buy it.

And somebody is going to finally make a VR SecondLife that actually gains traction with the masses, and that isn't simply a place for furries, GOR fans, and flying penises, and the tools to do so are getting cheaper and easier to use every day. Plus, it would be fairly easy for a smaller company who makes that app to actually stand up the infrastructure in very rapid fashion using Amazon hardware.

I don't know who will pull it off, but I can tell you it won't be Sony - they've had the hardware and software/tools for some time now with the PlayStation platform and accessories, and they can't seem to figure out what they want to do.

Edit: Not Gor football club fans, this GOR:

Tarnsman_of_gor_vallejo_cover.jpg

 

You’re probably right but it won’t be FB. To think it’s army of olds is gonna convert to it is pie in the sky thinking and the youngs left it awhile ago. They do have Instagram still but its strategy of buying up the competition just isn’t gonna fly anymore and Zuck ain’t no genius, far from it. FB has only been dominant for less than 15 years and I predict in much less than that time it will go the way of MySpace. There’s only so many trumpy bears that people will buy.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So the ultimate goal here is basically a Matrix type situation right?  Except instead of machines, it's just corporations?  

I agree with your conclusion. Media siloing has proven to be divisive - tearing away the fragile social fabric of the nation (along with providing some tangible and intangible social positives). There remain antitrust issues in Tech that will need to be addressed.

TLDR: the FB team lost to Apple in the NRL last night in a battle of heavyweights. 
FC411575-A50B-40D8-BD92-EFEB1FE2D623.jpeg.e1e3ba3a5dd5f6f01a17c4b5c881d247.jpeg

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TurkeyChew

TurkeyChew 383

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@JimmyJames Never mind just saw this thread was in cloak room. I’m trying to have a business discussion in Cloak room- no wonder you were posting in the tenor you were— shame on me.

Maybe there’s another thread to discuss Meta’s fall from grace and plans to pivot. I thought the hydra thread morphed to a catch all FB/meta thread.

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washparkhorn

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The Metaverse has not been getting great press. An early warning by MIT Technology Review

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/12/16/1042516/the-metaverse-has-a-groping-problem/amp/

NSFW

Spoiler

In the letter, Belamire described entering a multiplayer mode, where all characters were exactly the same save for their voices. “In between a wave of zombies and demons to shoot down, I was hanging out next to BigBro442, waiting for our next attack. Suddenly, BigBro442’s disembodied helmet faced me dead-on. His floating hand approached my body, and he started to virtually rub my chest. ‘Stop!’ I cried … This goaded him on, and even when I turned away from him, he chased me around, making grabbing and pinching motions near my chest. Emboldened, he even shoved his hand toward my virtual crotch and began rubbing.

“There I was, being virtually groped in a snowy fortress with my brother-in . . .

Sounds like the incels have already moved in. 

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atomheartbevo

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11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And somebody is going to finally make a VR SecondLife that actually gains traction with the masses, and that isn't simply a place for furries, GOR fans, and flying penises

So I just logged into SecondLife for the first time in over a decade, and I still had almost 6,000 L$ sitting there (looking at the account history, I spend $30 USD in 2006).

I can cash it out for like $28 USD.

Cabin Fever Reaction GIF

 

 

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24 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

You’re probably right but it won’t be FB. To think it’s army of olds is gonna convert to it is pie in the sky thinking and the youngs left it awhile ago. They do have Instagram still but its strategy of buying up the competition just isn’t gonna fly anymore and Zuck ain’t no genius, far from it. FB has only been dominant for less than 15 years and I predict in much less than that time it will go the way of MySpace. There’s only so many trumpy bears that people will buy.

FB has Oculus, and they have some apps/games they are testing for the metaverse stuff, and are putting a lot of money into it and watching how people interact, etc. to refine it for the masses - Kotaku played around with it:

https://kotaku.com/facebook-metaverse-horizon-worlds-vr-oculus-quest-2-cha-1848436740

Long ways to go, but there are a shit-ton of virtual worlds/communities across the internet that they are probably studying.

Everything from games like World of Warcraft (26 million active users) to metaverse-like virtual worlds where anything goes such as Second Life (900,000 active users) to more rigid virtual worlds such as Habbo (800,000 active users when the pool isn't closed), and smaller apps such as VRChat.

But they have a problem:

6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Sounds like the incels have already moved in. 

The kind of shit that washparkhorn mentioned may fly in Second Life because flying penises and GOR and furries, but it is not going to fly in a mainstream "metaverse" offering from somebody like Facebook.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89455

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And FB has to decide whether it wants its metaverse to be cross-platform, or a walled garden only available to Oculus users.  My guess is they will be fully cross-platform, and will be using the Oculus to show off what it can do, in an effort to pressure the other VR companies to match its features/prices (FB can sell Oculus at-cost).

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45500

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The kind of shit that washparkhorn mentioned may fly in Second Life because flying penises and GOR and furries, but it is not going to fly in a mainstream "metaverse" offering from somebody like Facebook.

Why would it not fly?  They'll just put it in a "hard to access" type place for those who really want it.  It's no different than the shadier corners of the internet are today.  That's not even mentioning the dark web. 

Meta is literally a Ready Player One scenario.  That is their goal, in my opinion.  An actual virtual reality to replace the current one, in all facets.

Gonna be great man.

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Captainant

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

And FB has to decide whether it wants its metaverse to be cross-platform, or a walled garden only available to Oculus users.  My guess is they will be fully cross-platform, and will be using the Oculus to show off what it can do, in an effort to pressure the other VR companies to match its features/prices (FB can sell Oculus at-cost).

Goddamnit the fact that Oculus requires a Facebook account is such a bummer. The hardware is fantastic and the hand tracking is surprisingly good with no external sensors. But facebook. Furk.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45500

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JFC.  We have to kill this thing.  Fuck facebook.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/10/russia-rebels-sanctions-facebook/

Quote

Pro-Russia rebels are still using Facebook to recruit fighters, spread propaganda

A pair of whistleblower complaints filed to the Justice and Treasury departments argue that Facebook violated laws by allowing accounts from sanctioned entities on the platform

Quote

In the days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Aleksandr Zaldostanov, the leader of a pro-Putin biker gang, the Night Wolves, turned to Facebook to disparage the Ukrainian president and push falsehoods about the war.

 

“Ukraine is a torn off piece of Russia, which is shrinking in pain and bleeding still,” he posted on March 1 to more than 18,000 followers. “Russia did not start a war now!!!! Those who divided us started it!”

A former physician known by his nickname, “the Surgeon,” Zaldostanov has been on the U.S. government sanctions list since 2014, amid allegations that he helped Russian troops confiscate weapons during the country’s invasion of Crimea.

The sanctions block Zaldostanov’s assets and generally prohibit U.S. citizens from “dealing” with him, but on Facebook he maintains a very active account, posting frequent support of Russia since the invasion.

 

The multitude of sanctioned entities and individuals who, like Zaldostanov, maintain a robust Facebook and Instagram presence is the subject of a pair of new whistleblower complaints, filed in December and February, arguing that Facebook parent company Meta engaged in “reckless or willful” violations of U.S. sanctions law by permitting the accounts, according to redacted copies reviewed exclusively by The Washington Post.

 

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