CFP '19-- Auburn the nexus?

[Magus Ossis 2997]

The CFP seems to be Bama, Clemson, and 2 of ND, B10 champ, B12 champ, and SEC at-large. If either or both of OU/tOSU win out, their tickets are punched. The question arises in the event that one of those teams, Bama, or (highly unlikely) Clemson stumbles. There are 7 important losses to be attributed in the SEC that will help to determine how attractive an at-large CFP representative it can field. Two groups of 3 must be distributed 1-1-1 or 0-1-2 (in no particular order) among Bama, LSU, and Auburn and among UGA, UF, and Auburn. One more loss added in the CCG, most likely (but far from certainly) to UGA by Bama. Auburn is uniquely positioned to play every SEC title pretender/contender this year in the regular season, starting Saturday against UF. At this point, Auburn is a de facto top 3 team in both divisions but only eligible to advance to the CCG based on how it does versus its West opponents.

[mulletpelini 5220]

So Auburn is this years Auburn is basically what you're saying...

[Tex Long 4617]

Highly unlikely Clemson stumbles? They looked damned unsteady at the Fightin' Macks' house... reckon I'd back off a tad on that "unlikely" assessment, were I in your shoes.

[TexArcher 38816]

I think it's even simpler than that.

SEC champ is in - undefeated or not doesn't matter.

Clemson is in.  They're not losing.

Ohio St is in.  They're not losing.

If ou wins out, they're in a debate with an SEC 1-loss team (And that loss won't be to Auburn.  Could be LSU with only a loss to Bama or the loser of Bama/UGA in the SEC title game).

But ou isn't gonna win out.  The only way a 1-loss Big 12 champ gets in is if the SEC doesn't also have a 1-loss team.  And Auburn could be the one that hands out one of those two losses for LSU or UGA.  I just don't see it happening.

I'm convinced the SEC will get 2 teams into the playoff most years.  The fact that SEC teams are overvalued in the starting rankings and not punished by voters for playing Troy and Georgia Southern almost guarantees it.

Edited October 1, 2019 by TexArcher

[Sejjr 3250]

Auburn will lose to LSU and Bama, and probably Georgia. I believe that is called the SEC Grind.

Edited October 1, 2019 by Sejjr

[USNALonghorn 5155]

I’m not so convinced that Bama will beat LSU, either.

[PittsburghTiger 6320]

I'm still not sold on the AU offense. But I feel better than I did a couple weeks ago.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

I'll take the under on the number of unbeaten teams the OP is calling for. It's college football and upsets happen - but Clemson and Bama get in with 1 loss.

There will not be undefeated teams battling for a spot, there may not be more than a few 1 loss teams after the CCG weekend

[Doc Sam Beckett 5854]

9 hours ago, TexArcher said:

I think it's even simpler than that.

SEC champ is in - undefeated or not doesn't matter.

Clemson is in.  They're not losing.

Ohio St is in.  They're not losing.

If ou wins out, they're in a debate with an SEC 1-loss team (And that loss won't be to Auburn.  Could be LSU with only a loss to Bama or the loser of Bama/UGA in the SEC title game).

But ou isn't gonna win out.  The only way a 1-loss Big 12 champ gets in is if the SEC doesn't also have a 1-loss team.  And Auburn could be the one that hands out one of those two losses for LSU or UGA.  I just don't see it happening.

I'm convinced the SEC will get 2 teams into the playoff most years.  The fact that SEC teams are overvalued in the starting rankings and not punished by voters for playing Troy and Georgia Southern almost guarantees it.

 

There is no way a 12-1 Big 12 champ Texas or Oklahoma is left out for an 11-1 secsecsec team that didn't win its conference. I would bet fucking big on that. 

[C-Man 27686]

 
There is no way a 12-1 Big 12 champ Texas or Oklahoma is left out for an 11-1 secsecsec team that didn't win its conference. I would bet fucking big on that. 

Agree with this.

I think our Tigers are headed for an upset loss somewhere in the ACC this year. Something just isn’t right with them at this point. What’s your take? Lawrence sniff too many of his own farts in the off-season? Too much talent lost to NFL?

[TXSooner518 2455]

10 hours ago, Tex Long said:

Highly unlikely Clemson stumbles? They looked damned unsteady at the Fightin' Macks' house... reckon I'd back off a tad on that "unlikely" assessment, were I in your shoes.

Agree it's highly unlikely. They play literally no teams that are even good. Their toughest remaining game is either Wake Forest (3 point win over Utah State, 3 point win over the same BC team that Kansas beat by 24) or a possible matchup with UVA in the ACC title game (trailed at home 17-0 to Old Goddamn Dominion, rallied at home past mighty Florida State).  

10 hours ago, TexArcher said:

I'm convinced the SEC will get 2 teams into the playoff most years.  The fact that SEC teams are overvalued in the starting rankings and not punished by voters for playing Troy and Georgia Southern almost guarantees it.

There have been 5 playoffs, with 1 having two SEC teams, with those two teams having not played each other in the regular season or SEC title game. Last year was the only other year where 2 SEC teams were even considered. So it being considered 40% and happening 20% doesn't square with "getting two in most years."

4 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

I'll take the under on the number of unbeaten teams the OP is calling for. It's college football and upsets happen - but Clemson and Bama get in with 1 loss.

There will not be undefeated teams battling for a spot, there may not be more than a few 1 loss teams after the CCG weekend

Not so sure on a 1-loss Clemson. They might get a benefit of the doubt, based on recent history, but 12-1 against a schedule that really might have no teams even receiving votes in the AP or coaches poll by the end of the year is NOT impressive at all.

1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

There is no way a 12-1 Big 12 champ Texas or Oklahoma is left out for an 11-1 secsecsec team that didn't win its conference. I would bet fucking big on that. 

I agree with the caveat of it being 11-1 LSU with a tight loss to 13-0 Bama compared to a 12-1 Texas, which LSU beat on its home field. I still think Texas could get the nod there, but LSU could also. No other scenario is an 11-1 SEC non champ going over 12-1 Texas or OU.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5854]

3 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

Agree with this.

I think our Tigers are headed for an upset loss somewhere in the ACC this year. Something just isn’t right with them at this point. What’s your take? Lawrence sniff too many of his own farts in the off-season? Too much talent lost to NFL?

 

Na, I think they are good for the regular season, they always seem to need a wake up call at some point. 

I think the main issue right now is horrible vanilla play calling. The WR have zero separation, and the OC keeps forcing terrible calls. Some of the OL this week essentially said in as nice a way as possible that they thought Clemson was kicking NC ass on the ground and couldn't figure out why they weren't running it more. I'm worried about the LB outside of Simmons, and the DL wasn't getting much push on Saturday, but I think if they open up the play book, this will be a completely different team. 

[sidis 9990]

my read...

ohio state is home.  they are way, way better than anyone they play this year.  i do not see one of their annual conference road games jumping up and biting them.  they will have to play wisconsin twice but at home and in indianapolis.  i hate those cocksuckers with a white hot passion but they are going to steamroll their schedule with the only likely intrigue to come from penn state for a quarter or two (maybe).

clemson is on cruise control but they don't have the oline and dline this year to be able to afford to do that.  that win against tamu is losing value fast.  but they got their conference road game scare and barely survived so we will see if they make that mistake again.  their success depends entirely on the wrs continuing to make seemingly miraculous plays.  but their schedule from here is just so, so, so bad.

oklahoma has two games left...texas and the big 12 champ game.  if that is against texas again, then it will certainly get interesting.  i've stated before, i think they win the rrs due to our defensive instability and injuries.  however, i would not be surprised to see a reverse of last year and we jump up and get them at jerry world if we are 100% healthy and play with confidence.  you just never know where each team will be with key injuries, defensive improvement, etc...  rematches are always difficult.  if the game is not against texas, then they are probably home.  the other thing is we just don't know how ou will respond to playing a team with a pulse yet.  their schedule up to the rrs is an embarrassment.

so that leaves the sec champ winner.  the nightmare scenario for the playoff committee in my opinion is if lsu-auburn-bama pull off a three way 1-loss situation (much like texas, oklahoma, and tech in 2008).  obviously, whoever goes the conference championship game based on whatever tie breaker is going to get a huge benefit and if they beat georgia, they're home.  what will be interesting though is if that does happen, it is going to be hard to argue that bama deserves a spot over auburn or lsu because they played such an absolute chickenshit schedule while lsu played us on the road and auburn played oregon at neutral.  this is the year that bama deserves to get left out if they all trade losses (of course depending on how the games go).  florida sucks, i think georgia is pretty mediocre honestly.  if ou loses to us in one of those games, they are done as well because their schedule is chickenshit as well.  same for clemson, their schedule doesn't support a loss.  ohio state and a 1 loss lsu/auburn/bama are the only teams i can see surviving a loss. 

lsu, auburn, bama, and georgia should all be huge texas fans from here because that is the only way i think a second of those teams gets in.  but if they all beat each other in conf play and auburn holds off uga and lsu holds off florida, we may see some cousins stop fucking each other because shit is going to get nasty down there between them. 

[Tex Long 4617]

Y'all just afraid to admit the truth - tOSU and Climpson both stumble, we split with 0U, and the Grande Finale features Bama, UGa, LSU, and Aubrun regardless of UW, Norte Dome, Wiscy or anyone else, because secsecsec.

[TXSooner518 2455]

People dramatically overestimate how easy it is to go unbeaten (if you don't play in the ACC and are named Clemson). 

Ohio State looks really fucking good, but they still play Wisconsin at least once, likely twice. Whisky is a very good football team. Even if you think Ohio State is 90% to beat Whisky, they lose one of the two games almost 1 time in 5. The combo of Sparty, Penn State, and @Michigan is also a trifecta of games that they can lose if the other team plays up and Ohio State plays down. If you think tOSU is 95% to beat Sparty, 95% to beat PSU, 95% to beat Michigan, 90% to beat Whisky, and 100% to win its other 3 games (NW, Md, Rut) (these numbers are all higher than reality, some much higher, BTW, just for demonstration), then tOSU still loses a game over 30% of the time. 

FPI says tOSU is the #2 team with #1 overall efficiency, and also has them at 37% to win out. 

Edited October 1, 2019 by TXSooner518

[sidis 9990]

1 minute ago, TXSooner518 said:

People dramatically overestimate how easy it is to go unbeaten (if you don't play in the ACC and are named Clemson). 

Ohio State looks really fucking good, but they still play Wisconsin at least once, likely twice. Whisky is a very good football team. Even if you think Ohio State is 90% to beat Whisky, they lose one of the two games almost 1 time in 5. The combo of Sparty, Penn State, and @Michigan is also a trifecta of games that they can lose if the other team plays up and Ohio State plays down. If you think tOSU is 95% to beat Sparty, 95% to beat PSU, 95% to beat Michigan, 90% to beat Whisky, and 100% to win its other 3 games (NW, Md, Rut) (these numbers are all higher than reality, some much higher, BTW, just for demonstration), then tOSU still loses a game over 30% of the time.

i'm not saying it is easy to go unbeaten.  i just think that ohio state and clemson both have the opportunity to do so without ever playing above their b games. 

wisconsin isn't that great and they play directly into ohio state's strength.  they don't have the defensive speed to have a prayer of slowing down their offense.  ohio state gets them at home, as well as both michigan state (who lose to arizona state at home) and penn state (who does have a history of making that game interesting).  their remaining road games are rutgers, northwestern, and michigan.  none of those teams are top 50 teams.  they will buttfuck all of them.

[Bevo 13827]

I think it is LSU, Clemson, tOSU and 1 of OU, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, and Oregon. In the order of likelihood for the last spot I would say Alabama > Georgia  >  OU  > Texas > Oregon.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I think it is LSU, Clemson, tOSU and 1 of OU, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, and Oregon. In the order of likelihood for the last spot I would say Alabama > Georgia  >  OU  > Texas > Oregon.

Oregon????
Because their best win will be a loss to Auburn - right?

[TXSooner518 2455]

3 minutes ago, sidis said:

i'm not saying it is easy to go unbeaten.  i just think that ohio state and clemson both have the opportunity to do so without ever playing above their b games. 

wisconsin isn't that great and they play directly into ohio state's strength.  they don't have the defensive speed to have a prayer of slowing down their offense.  ohio state gets them at home, as well as both michigan state (who lose to arizona state at home) and penn state (who does have a history of making that game interesting).  their remaining road games are rutgers, northwestern, and michigan.  none of those teams are top 50 teams.  they will buttfuck all of them.

What are you basing "Wisconsin isn't that great" on? Also, tOSU gets them at home, but then again at neutral field. Also, Michigan is overrated, but absolutely is a top 50 team. You're being a bit absurd. What do you think tOSU's % chance of going unbeaten is?

In the 5 years of the playoff, there have been 6 unbeaten teams make it (30% of playoff teams). 4 of the 6 unbeaten teams were either the ACC champion or Notre Dame with an ACC-heavy schedule. Zero teams in the playoff era have won the PAC, B1G, or B12 unbeaten.

[sidis 9990]

11 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

What are you basing "Wisconsin isn't that great" on? Also, tOSU gets them at home, but then again at neutral field. Also, Michigan is overrated, but absolutely is a top 50 team. You're being a bit absurd. What do you think tOSU's % chance of going unbeaten is?

In the 5 years of the playoff, there have been 6 unbeaten teams make it (30% of playoff teams). 4 of the 6 unbeaten teams were either the ACC champion or Notre Dame with an ACC-heavy schedule. Zero teams in the playoff era have won the PAC, B1G, or B12 unbeaten.

wisconsin beat northwestern 24-15 on saturday in madison and looked entirely incompetent doing so.  their qb is not very good.  ohio state feasts on one dimensional teams.  decent oline, great rb, disciplined and competent defense.  they are not ready to compete with ohio state yet.  as for indianapolis, wisconsin has played in five of the eight big 10 championship games and are currently sitting at 0-5 in that game. 

i think the likelihood that ohio state goes undefeated through the regular season and conference championship game is about 80-85%.  not sure why michigan is assumed to be a top 50 team, they are fucking terrible and have beaten ohio state twice since 2001 (not even a rivalry anymore).  bama has made it undefeated twice with a tougher schedule than ohio state has this year.

Edited October 1, 2019 by sidis

[TXSooner518 2455]

3 minutes ago, sidis said:

wisconsin beat northwestern 24-15 on saturday and looked entirely incompetent doing so.  their qb is not very good.  ohio state feasts on one dimensional teams.  decent oline, great rb, disciplined and competent defense.  they are not ready to compete with ohio state yet.  as for indianapolis, wisconsin has played in five of the eight big 10 championship games and are currently sitting at 0-5 in that game. 

i think the likelihood that ohio state goes undefeated through the regular season and conference championship game is about 80-85%.  not sure why michigan is assumed to be a top 50 team, they are fucking terrible and have beaten ohio state twice since 2001 (not even a rivalry anymore).  bama has made it undefeated twice with a tougher schedule than ohio state has this year.

OK I will put up $100 to your $200, I'll take tOSU does not go unbeaten through the B1G title game. That would reflect odds of 67% that they go unbeaten, an amazing deal for you at your odds!

[sidis 9990]

15 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

OK I will put up $100 to your $200, I'll take tOSU does not go unbeaten through the B1G title game. That would reflect odds of 67% that they go unbeaten, an amazing deal for you at your odds!

sure.  let's do it.

[TXSooner518 2455]

5 minutes ago, sidis said:

sure.  let's do it.

Cool, booked. Respect for backing up your stance! 

[sidis 9990]

2 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Cool, booked. Respect for backing up your stance! 

well, at the end of the day, i would still do a backflip even if i have to pay you a paltry $200 because my hatred of the buckeyes is somewhere in between more than isis and slightly less than ou.  here's sending out some universal karma in hopes...

but i don't see it happening.

[Hagbard Celine 11160]

tosu/michigan all-time winstreaks:

9: michigan 1901-1909

7: ohio state 2004-2010

7: ohio state 2012-2018

The statistical probability of an Ohio State win in Ann Arbor to run the current streak to 8 in a row is......

..... going to be easier to assess after Michigan goes to pedder in 3 weeks on the 19th and then hosts domer a week later on the 26th.

So the Ohio State part of the big picture is going to remain unknown for a month.

Do not rule out Michigan as a spoiler here.  As we know from Fair Park, anything can happen against your biggest rival.

[sidis 9990]

2 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

tosu/michigan all-time winstreaks:

9: michigan 1901-1909

7: ohio state 2004-2010

7: ohio state 2012-2018

The statistical probability of an Ohio State win in Ann Arbor to run the current streak to 8 in a row is......

..... going to be easier to assess after Michigan goes to pedder in 3 weeks on the 19th and then hosts domer a week later on the 26th.

So the Ohio State part of the big picture is going to remain unknown for a month.

Do not rule out Michigan as a spoiler here.  As we know from Fair Park, anything can happen against your biggest rival.

that used to be the case in this rivalry.  ohio state winning 16 of the last 18, michigan getting absolutely housed in madison, and harbaugh being 0 for infinity as an underdog and 1-9 against top ten teams makes me think not so much this year.

[gmr548 16681]

tosu/michigan all-time winstreaks:
9: michigan 1901-1909
7: ohio state 2004-2010
7: ohio state 2012-2018
The statistical probability of an Ohio State win in Ann Arbor to run the current streak to 8 in a row is......
..... going to be easier to assess after Michigan goes to pedder in 3 weeks on the 19th and then hosts domer a week later on the 26th.
So the Ohio State part of the big picture is going to remain unknown for a month.
Do not rule out Michigan as a spoiler here.  As we know from Fair Park, anything can happen against your biggest rival.

Ohio State has won like 19 of 20 against Michigan. It's less competitive than Texas v aggy in the 21st century. Ohio State is more likely than not to lose somewhere, but I am very confident it won't be to Michigan. Michigan is in bad shape, Ohio State is better up and down the roster, and they're a bad matchup for Michigan schematically.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[TexArcher 38816]

2 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

I agree with the caveat of it being 11-1 LSU with a tight loss to 13-0 Bama compared to a 12-1 Texas, which LSU beat on its home field. I still think Texas could get the nod there, but LSU could also. No other scenario is an 11-1 SEC non champ going over 12-1 Texas or OU.

What you're saying is how it should be.

But let's say Georgia goes 12-0 (with top 10 wins over ND, Florida, and Auburn, plus a win over top 25 aggy), then loses to #1 or 2 Bama close in the CCG.

Texas beats top 10 ou twice and wins out.  Maybe ISU or Baylor is top 25 when we beat them.

We're gonna hear the argument that UGA had a much stronger SOS and more quality wins than Texas and they should be in.  Hell, people will be debating if UGA is the second best team in college football, not the fourth.

Edited October 1, 2019 by TexArcher

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

11 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

The statistical probability of an Ohio State win in Ann Arbor to run the current streak to 8 in a row is......

...unaffected by the results of the prior seven games between the two schools. 

I think this Ohio State team is a different animal from the past few teams they've had. They appear to have fixed the coaching/scheme deficiencies in last year's defense, and Justin Fields is actually a (slight) net upgrade over Dwayne Haskins thanks to his running-- they maybe lose a little in the passing game but gain a ton in the run game from that position. 

Having said all that, TXSooner is correct that it's a lot harder to go unbeaten than these teams (Bama, Ohio State) are making it look, and he's also a dirty Sooner bastard. Ohio State probably won't win all their games, but we tend to look for patterns based on what we've seen in prior years and what you have seen from Ohio State in 2018 or 2017 doesn't make for good analogy here. 

I think Clemson CAN play better. I don't know if they WILL play better. They remind of two teams-- 2014 Florida State and 2015 Ohio State. 2015 Ohio State was supposed to be the 2014 team on steroids, and instead it just didn't come together for them until they lost to Michigan State and the pressure was off. From there they obliterated Michigan and Notre Dame, but all of the biggest prizes were off the table.

2014 Florida State never did get it together and ended up getting humiliated in the Rose Bowl by a less-talented but hungrier Oregon team. That was the year we had to ask, "Can you leave an unbeaten defending national champ from a P5 conference out of the playoff? Cause we probably should". 

Clemson is more like 2015 Ohio State, I would say. I still think they're really good, and I don't think they're going to lose a postseason game by 39 points, but they won't repeat.

Oklahoma better go unbeaten if it wants go get in-- or, they better play some REALLY fucking good defense against us in both games. The flip side of how Clemson will get the benefit of the doubt is, I am not sure the playoff committee will take OU as seriously as they should if they go 13-1 again and score 50 pts a game and give up 30 to everyone with a pulse. 

[TXSooner518 2455]

23 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

What you're saying is how it should be.

But let's say Georgia goes 12-0 (with top 10 wins over ND, Florida, and Auburn, plus a win over top 25 aggy), then loses to #1 or 2 Bama close in the CCG.

Texas beats top 10 ou twice and wins out.  Maybe ISU or Baylor is top 25 when we beat them.

We're gonna hear the argument that UGA had a much stronger SOS and more quality wins than Texas and they should be in.  Hell, people will be debating if UGA is the second best team in college football, not the fourth.

I specifically said 11-1 to account for the UGA scenario here. UGA would be 12-1 in that spot, just like Texas or OU, which is a different calculus. I think it would then come down to a full schedule analysis, which can't be done until the games are played.

Excellent post by Swandered, BTW.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

37 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

Do not rule out Michigan as a spoiler here.  As we know from Fair Park, anything can happen against your biggest rival.

Here is a hint - don't look past this weeks game in Columbus either. OSU has played much better, but Coach Dantonio has more wins against OSU than any other B1G coach in the last 12 years. Don't think that I'm blind to the fact that OSU has won by blowout against MSU the last 2 year, so that could happen as well. 
I'm hoping for bad weather, which was an equalizer in the last MSU win. 
But don't count on the Buckeyes losing 2 games in the B1G, last time they did that was 2011 (the Luke Fickell year), prior to that was 2004.

[Bevo 13827]

2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Oregon????
Because their best win will be a loss to Auburn - right?

I am assuming the 4th team in the playoffs will have 1 loss. Oregon only has 1 loss and has a decent chance to run the PAC. OU has to play us twice. We already have 1 loss and have to play OU twice. Georgia has Florida and Auburn and either LSU or Alabama. So when the dust settles, I think Oregon will be in the discussion but lose out to a 1 loss SEC team or 1 loss Big12 team.

[Magus Ossis 2997]

Clemson has looked meh, but their "C" game is likely good enough to get them wins against the rest of their slate. I agree with the sentiment above that they are likely in the PO but not the champ again.
Bama- top ranked, controls its destiny, has the cache to get in with an "L," has three significant opponents in LSU, Auburn, UGA (presumably).
tOSU- also undefeated and in control of its destiny. Not all cupcakes, though, and mediocre teams sometimes upset strong rivals.
OU- is in if they run the table. I don't think that will happen. Would be a strong contender if they split with us in the order they did last year.
LSU/Auburn- control their destiny in that if either somehow ran the table, they get the spot reserved for Bama. LSU has a small chance to do this, Auburn only former Heisman QB-sized chance. SEC's best chance for 2 slots is for one of these to go, along with a 1-loss Bama who almost beat them.
UGA- a CCG loss would be too late to redeem, even if the rest of their resume is in order. Their best chance in that case would be if the B12 and B10 champs had 2 losses each.
ND- will be near the front of the line of 1-loss teams if they play well. Close loss on the road to UGA can be spun different directions depending on who is still playing musical chairs come December.
PSU/Wisc- probably not getting in without beating tOSU. If somehow PSU beat the nuts to win the East, that could set up a UT-OU-Tech 08 between Wiscy, PSU, and tOSU. Therefore a very slim chance for Wisc to lose to the couch burners but still advance as a 1-loss conference champion.
Pac- just no. Unless Washington starts disintegrating opponents with laser beams after scoring touchdowns, this is too big of a clown show.
Texas- running the table would be difficult and unlikely. Not unthinkable, though, as of yet. The temptation to include a 1-loss UT on an 11-game winning streak would probably be too much for the committee. Any more losses, though, and we're out.
I don't see anyone else even mathematically alive at this point. Florida has a chance to play cockroach, though.

[TexArcher 38816]

2 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

I specifically said 11-1 to account for the UGA scenario here. UGA would be 12-1 in that spot, just like Texas or OU, which is a different calculus. I think it would then come down to a full schedule analysis, which can't be done until the games are played.

Excellent post by Swandered, BTW.

Gotcha.

I still think 11-1 only-loss-to-Bama LSU gets in over 12-1 Texas.  The argument would be: LSU won the head-to-head on the road and played a tougher SOS and who cares if Texas won the Big 12 that only has 3 or 4 ranked teams at the end of the season.  I don't agree with this logic, but I think it's the argument that would win out in the prevailing OMG SEC landscape.

If it's 12-1 ou, obviously the biggest part of the argument above goes away and they're probably in.  But no one wants that, so I think we should beat them twice just to be safe.

Edited October 1, 2019 by TexArcher

[Hagbard Celine 11160]

2-loss bammer (lsu, barn) is still getting in.

y'all just haven't figured out the math yet.

 

[BabaYaga 15532]

5 hours ago, sidis said:

 i've stated before, i think they win the rrs due to our defensive instability and injuries.  however, i would not be surprised to see a reverse of last year and we jump up and get them at jerry world if we are 100% healthy and play with confidence.

[sidis 9990]

51 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

2-loss bammer (lsu, barn) is still getting in.

y'all just haven't figured out the math yet.

 

the math on that is super easy.

lsu runs the table and beats aub and bama (in a close one), plus uga in the ccg.

aub beats bama and uga but loses to lsu and florida (lol).

uga loses to aub and lsu.

bama loses to aub and lsu.

ou beats texas in rrs and texas beats ou in second game...and spencer sanders goes apeshit and pulls out a crazy win against ou (but osu loses to texas and an inexplicable one to baylor or some shit).

oregon/wash beat each and then winner loses to utah in pac 12 champ game.

ohio state goes undefeated and gets in.

clemson goes undefeated and gets in.

saban has a hissy fit.  voila.

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

28 minutes ago, sidis said:

osu loses to texas

definitely

[satyanash 15358]

First 2019 rankings will be out tonight. Let the lobbying begin...

 

[satyanash 15358]

 

[The Dog 44773]

1. SECaggy
2. SECaggy
3. Ohio st
4. Clemson

[satyanash 15358]

God this would be amazing. Would almost certainly lead to shortening the regular season, though.

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by satyanash

[satyanash 15358]

 

[LTbear 4209]

49 minutes ago, satyanash said:

 

I'll be surprised if Baylor is top 10. Almost would rather we aren't (don't want it to be a distraction to the team).

[satyanash 15358]

 

[Treefidy 1504]

8 hours ago, satyanash said:

First 2019 rankings will be out tonight. Let the lobbying begin...

 

Sweaty cockroach bastard had a few outstanding quotes in that Dave wilson write-up

[taybo20 3008]

I’m down with no Oklahoma in the top ten haha

[4th&Five 41904]

I’ve watched most of 3 Baylor games and still haven’t seen anything that tells me they’re a top 10 team. 

[satyanash 15358]

26 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

I’ve watched most of 3 Baylor games and still haven’t seen anything that tells me they’re a top 10 team. 

There's a decent chance Baylor ends up behind a two-loss team (Auburn?) and their fanbase inundates Twitter with complaints.

[Sgt Hulk 14331]

What a fucking joke lol