CFP '19-- Auburn the nexus?

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

1 minute ago, joeycovers said:

the crying and begging from all of these teams would be great. 

If Texas isn't in the running, then this is what I'm rooting for. I want to see three SEC teams get in, or a two-loss SEC champion get left out, or like Clemson losing its conference title game on several insanely controversial calls and then missing the playoff

CHAOS CHAOS CHAOS ALL I WANT

[TXSooner518 2455]

1 hour ago, JBJ said:

All those teams except Minnesota would be favored.

Georgia lost to a team that won't make a bowl, and every single one of those teams has a win better than UF (well, Penn St might not in Iowa.)

Nah, several of those teams wouldn't be favored over UGA on a neutral field. Also, Utah and Oregon DEFINITELY don't have a better win than UF, and OU arguably doesn't. 

1 hour ago, Bill Lumbergh said:

2 hours ago, markstanco said:

Which team is better?

If anyone asked you prior to the Penn State game, would you have said Minnesota was better?

Minnesota isn't better. PSU threw 3 red zone picks. Minnesota won the game, which is awesome for them, and it counts in the standings. If they can back it up with 4 more, they will and should be in the playoffs. If Minnesota-Penn State happens in the B1G title game, PSU will be favored again. 

The last hand of poker I played, if you asked me prior to the hand which is better AQ or A9, I would have said AQ. My AQ lost. I still say AQ is better than A9. If a team is expected to beat another 60% of the time, the fact that the other team won doesn't mean the 60% figure was incorrect.

[joeycovers 399]

11 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

 

The last hand of poker I played, if you asked me prior to the hand which is better AQ or A9, I would have said AQ. My AQ lost. I still say AQ is better than A9. If a team is expected to beat another 60% of the time, the fact that the other team won doesn't mean the 60% figure was incorrect.

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

13 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

The last hand of poker I played, if you asked me prior to the hand which is better AQ or A9, I would have said AQ. My AQ lost. I still say AQ is better than A9. If a team is expected to beat another 60% of the time, the fact that the other team won doesn't mean the 60% figure was incorrect.

honestly Minnesota beating Alabama would feel like someone won a hand of hold 'em with a six of spades and a Dunkin Donuts coupon, but it works

[JBJ 3780]

FWIW: my projected CFP top 10 (12 to fit Minnesota in) was/is this:

1) Ohio St (2)

2) LSU (1)

3) Clemson (3)

4) Oklahoma (10) - I don't get it.  They are eyeball and resume better than their slot.

5) Oregon (6)

6) Penn State (9) - okay, they just lost

7) Alabama (5) - okay, they just lost...wait wut?

8: Utah (7)

9) Auburn (12) - the nexus

10) Georgia (4) - this makes no sense to me either.  They are eyeball and resume far worse than their slot.

11) Baylor (13)

12) Minnesota (8) - okay, big win

[JBJ 3780]

18 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Nah, several of those teams wouldn't be favored over UGA on a neutral field. Also, Utah and Oregon DEFINITELY don't have a better win than UF, and OU arguably doesn't.

You guy must vastly overrate Florida.  Tell me which B12 teams they would beat?  Would they beat Washington? Would they beat Iowa or Wisconsin? 

I mean they've struggled against some pretty terrible teams like Miami, UK, and SCe.

[TXSooner518 2455]

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

You guy must vastly overrate Florida.  Tell me which B12 teams they would beat?  Would they beat Washington? Would they beat Iowa or Wisconsin? 

I mean they've struggled against some pretty terrible teams like Miami, UK, and SCe.

I don't generally like this phrasing "would beat."  I think Florida would be a dog to OU, equal to Baylor, slight favorite over Texas, KSU, OSU, ISU, solid favorite over Tech and TCU, big favorite over WVU and KU.

I would pick Florida over Washington on a neutral field, and think they are probably better than Iowa and worse than Wisky.

I don't think Miami, UK and USCe are quite as bad as you think. I also think a team like Florida (strong D, mediocre O) will have struggle games more often, because the games are lower scoring. I think Baylor is a really good analogue for Florida.

[JBJ 3780]

SCe and UK won't make bowls. That's with Kentucky having 4 "gimme" games on their schedule

Florida is a balanced team they just haven't played many good offenses.  The one top 25 offense they faced took them to the woodshed.  You don't think Eason would do the same? Iowa State, OK State, Texas?

They aren't Baylor; they are Washington if Washington didn't have a first-round QB.

[TXSooner518 2455]

FPI has Florida's defensive efficiency at 11. Huck's Adjusted Stats has it at 12. Both metrics and Sagarin have UF as a top 12 team overall. 

For Kentucky, they absolutely will make a bowl. And they do have 3 gimme games, I don't think Louisville, while obv not elite, counts as a gimme game, they are still in the top third of a "P5" conference. Unless you meant Arkansas, so yeah, ha. Regardless, I will bet you significant cash they make a bowl. They have a better chance of winning out than of losing 2 of their last 3. 

EDIT: A scenario exists where Florida plays Baylor in the Sugar Bowl this year. What do you think the line on that game would be? You happily taking Baylor?

Edited November 13, 2019 by TXSooner518

[C-Man 27686]

13 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

FPI has Florida's defensive efficiency at 11. Huck's Adjusted Stats has it at 12. Both metrics and Sagarin have UF as a top 12 team overall. 

For Kentucky, they absolutely will make a bowl. And they do have 3 gimme games, I don't think Louisville, while obv not elite, counts as a gimme game, they are still in the top third of a "P5" conference. Unless you meant Arkansas, so yeah, ha. Regardless, I will bet you significant cash they make a bowl. They have a better chance of winning out than of losing 2 of their last 3. 

EDIT: A scenario exists where Florida plays Baylor in the Sugar Bowl this year. What do you think the line on that game would be? You happily taking Baylor?

What is that scenario? Unless Bama somehow worms into the playoff, aren't they a stone-cold lock for the Sugar Bowl?

[sidis 9990]

1 hour ago, JBJ said:

FWIW: my projected CFP top 10 (12 to fit Minnesota in) was/is this:

1) Ohio St (2)

2) LSU (1)

3) Clemson (3)

4) Oklahoma (10) - I don't get it.  They are eyeball and resume better than their slot.

5) Oregon (6)

6) Penn State (9) - okay, they just lost

7) Alabama (5) - okay, they just lost...wait wut?

8: Utah (7)

9) Auburn (12) - the nexus

10) Georgia (4) - this makes no sense to me either.  They are eyeball and resume far worse than their slot.

11) Baylor (13)

12) Minnesota (8) - okay, big win

re: ou, they lost to a very mediocre kstate team and needed a no-call pass interference to beat iowa state at home.  their current most quality win is texas who is mediocre.  they screwed the pooch by going chickenshit with the ooc schedule.  baylor will not result in a big boost.

now, my take on georgia is almost the same.  they have 1.25 quality wins between florida and notre but their loss to south carolina is worse than losing to kstate imo.  but uga will take care of itself in the sec ccg.  i suspect they could lose to auburn this weekend (a game i am going to).

bama has no quality wins (yet) either with their best being tamu by a long shot.  their one loss is to the second best team in the country though, not shitty ass south carolina or mediocre kstate. 

dude, penn state isn't that good.  no way.  they're done either way after next week's matchup with ohio state anyway.  utah's loss is about like ou's.  usc isn't great but they aren't south carolina shitty either.  if they win out and beat oregon, they deserve the nod over ou imo but no way they will beat out tide in that vote.  oregon is the interesting one.  heartbreaker against auburn opening week.  they get credit from me for playing a real non-conf game.  they haven't crushed teams they should have though.  they're a bit of an odd team.  bama-auburn outcome will be directly compared despite being 14 weeks apart.  i predict the playoff will be:

lsu, ohio state, clemson with oregon/utah winner, ou, and bama all throwing their respective shit fits as to why they belong there.  because the college football gods hate me, it will somehow work out that ou makes it in.  but they aren't in a strong position to make that argument against those other teams.

[sidis 9990]

20 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

FPI has Florida's defensive efficiency at 11. Huck's Adjusted Stats has it at 12. Both metrics and Sagarin have UF as a top 12 team overall. 

For Kentucky, they absolutely will make a bowl. And they do have 3 gimme games, I don't think Louisville, while obv not elite, counts as a gimme game, they are still in the top third of a "P5" conference. Unless you meant Arkansas, so yeah, ha. Regardless, I will bet you significant cash they make a bowl. They have a better chance of winning out than of losing 2 of their last 3. 

EDIT: A scenario exists where Florida plays Baylor in the Sugar Bowl this year. What do you think the line on that game would be? You happily taking Baylor?

i don't see a scenario in which florida goes to the sugar.  if lsu and georgia win out regular, the winner goes to the playoff.  the loser either goes to the sugar if bama backs into the playoff or if not, bama likely goes.  i think the only way fla goes is if auburn beats both georgia and alabama but even then, not sure because uga is still the east rep since fla has two conf losses.  i suppose if uga loses to both auburn and tamu, then fla would get in and then they lose to lsu.  but even then, it would require bama backing in.  bit of a longshot scenario.

[TXSooner518 2455]

3 minutes ago, sidis said:

i don't see a scenario in which florida goes to the sugar.  if lsu and georgia win out regular, the winner goes to the playoff.  the loser either goes to the sugar if bama backs into the playoff or if not, bama likely goes.  i think the only way fla goes is if auburn beats both georgia and alabama but even then, not sure because uga is still the east rep since fla has two conf losses.  i suppose if uga loses to both auburn and tamu, then fla would get in and then they lose to lsu.  but even then, it would require bama backing in.  bit of a longshot scenario.

 

12 minutes ago, C-Man said:

What is that scenario? Unless Bama somehow worms into the playoff, aren't they a stone-cold lock for the Sugar Bowl?

Don't get me wrong, it isn't likely, it was more for illustrative purposes. And I'm not rock-solid sure what the Sugar Bowl selection process for the SEC team is (I know the B12 champ goes if they don't go to playoff, and if B12 champ goes to playoff, B12 title game loser must go to Sugar, no options). And yeah, it would involve Alabama worming into the playoff lol. Georgia loses to Auburn and Aggy, LSU over UF in SEC title game, 2 loss conference champs elsewhere, or a 12-1 B12 champ Baylor. 

7 minutes ago, sidis said:

re: ou, they lost to a very mediocre kstate team and needed a no-call pass interference to beat iowa state at home.  their current most quality win is texas who is mediocre.  they screwed the pooch by going chickenshit with the ooc schedule.  baylor will not result in a big boost.

now, my take on georgia is almost the same.  they have 1.25 quality wins between florida and notre but their loss to south carolina is worse than losing to kstate imo.  but uga will take care of itself in the sec ccg.  i suspect they could lose to auburn this weekend (a game i am going to).

bama has no quality wins (yet) either with their best being tamu by a long shot.  their one loss is to the second best team in the country though, not shitty ass south carolina or mediocre kstate. 

dude, penn state isn't that good.  no way.  they're done either way after next week's matchup with ohio state anyway.  utah's loss is about like ou's.  usc isn't great but they aren't south carolina shitty either.  if they win out and beat oregon, they deserve the nod over ou imo but no way they will beat out tide in that vote.  oregon is the interesting one.  heartbreaker against auburn opening week.  they get credit from me for playing a real non-conf game.  they haven't crushed teams they should have though.  they're a bit of an odd team.  bama-auburn outcome will be directly compared despite being 14 weeks apart.  i predict the playoff will be:

lsu, ohio state, clemson with oregon/utah winner, ou, and bama all throwing their respective shit fits as to why they belong there.  because the college football gods hate me, it will somehow work out that ou makes it in.  but they aren't in a strong position to make that argument against those other teams.

Not really fair to say OU went chickenshit on the OOC. They played a team that has been a top G5 team, and a road game against a P5 team that's been bowl-eligible 6 of the last 7 seasons and is solid traditional team. They can't control that they both are quite a bit below average this year. That said, they have the schedule they have, and you can ding them for it, but can't really call it chickenshit. I mean, would scheduling @Minnesota have actually been any more "gutsy" than @UCLA?  

I also would say both KSU and Texas are above "mediocre" and KSU is better than USC, come on. What do you think would give Utah a better resume than OU if both win out? OU would likely have 4 ranked wins, with Utah having 1, with OU having a solid chance at their loss being ranked, and Utah's unranked.

Have fun at UGA-Auburn!

 

 

 

[C-Man 27686]

9 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

 

Don't get me wrong, it isn't likely, it was more for illustrative purposes. And I'm not rock-solid sure what the Sugar Bowl selection process for the SEC team is (I know the B12 champ goes if they don't go to playoff, and if B12 champ goes to playoff, B12 title game loser must go to Sugar, no options). And yeah, it would involve Alabama worming into the playoff lol. Georgia loses to Auburn and Aggy, LSU over UF in SEC title game, 2 loss conference champs elsewhere, or a 12-1 B12 champ Baylor. 

Not really fair to say OU went chickenshit on the OOC. They played a team that has been a top G5 team, and a road game against a P5 team that's been bowl-eligible 6 of the last 7 seasons and is solid traditional team. They can't control that they both are quite a bit below average this year. That said, they have the schedule they have, and you can ding them for it, but can't really call it chickenshit. I mean, would scheduling @Minnesota have actually been any more "gutsy" than @UCLA?  

I also would say both KSU and Texas are above "mediocre" and KSU is better than USC, come on. What do you think would give Utah a better resume than OU if both win out? OU would likely have 4 ranked wins, with Utah having 1, with OU having a solid chance at their loss being ranked, and Utah's unranked.

Have fun at UGA-Auburn!

 

 

 

Not that the SRS rating at CFB Reference is the end-all, be-all but that's got Utah 6th and OU 8th. Takes margin of victory and compares against schedule strength. The SRS is the sixth  column of numbers.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2019-ratings.html

1	Ohio State	Big Ten (East)	2	9	0	11.07	18.04	29.11	71.33	-9.05	11.51	2.95	8.24	1.17	9.27	2.09
2	Alabama	SEC (West)	4	8	1	14.13	7.79	21.92	64.13	2.59	12.52	4.40	6.63	2.34	9.50	3.37
3	LSU	SEC (West)	1	9	0	15.54	6.10	21.64	63.95	4.34	12.11	4.98	6.03	1.44	9.00	3.35
4	Clemson	ACC (Atlantic)	3	10	0	4.04	15.40	19.44	57.01	-2.19	9.71	3.49	7.95	1.76	8.70	2.57
5	Penn State	Big Ten (East)	9	8	1	4.30	14.25	18.55	56.39	-3.05	10.67	4.80	6.62	1.11	8.30	3.13
6	Utah	Pac-12 (South)	8	8	1	3.23	14.79	18.02	48.03	-2.09	12.26	3.52	5.99	1.47	8.10	2.83
7	Georgia	SEC (East)	5	8	1	3.61	14.20	17.81	51.26	-4.03	10.03	4.25	7.09	1.46	8.36	3.02
8	Wisconsin	Big Ten (West)	15	7	2	2.39	15.06	17.44	55.58	-5.25	10.47	3.39	7.00	1.33	8.20	2.56
9	Oklahoma	Big 12	10	8	1	14.47	2.91	17.38	63.36	9.47	14.03	5.21	8.25	2.76	10.58	3.91
10	Auburn	SEC (West)	13	7	2	4.62	12.71	17.33	51.11	-3.90	9.29	3.62	6.57	1.36	7.52	2.66
11	Oregon	Pac-12 (North)	6	8	1	6.10	10.31	16.41	54.54	1.92	10.15	3.90	6.49	2.18	7.99	3.21
12	Michigan	Big Ten (East)	14	7	2	7.13	8.30	15.43	52.28	0.09	9.78	3.93	5.84	1.18	7.39	2.58
13	Navy	American (West)	21	7	1	6.84	8.19	15.03	52.75	4.57	15.14	4.20	7.22	1.98	8.15	3.53
14	Florida	SEC (East)	11	8	2	4.02	9.92	13.94	52.14	0.26	10.34	5.22	5.98	2.14	8.16	3.57
15	Iowa	Big Ten (West)	23	6	3	-0.03	13.83	13.80	44.21	-4.86	9.83	4.02	5.82	2.34	7.54	3.30
16	Memphis	American (West)	18	8	1	12.88	0.81	13.70	54.33	11.12	12.16	4.54	6.22	2.74	8.55	3.94
17	Cincinnati	American (East)	17	8	1	3.92	9.55	13.47	48.04	3.19	10.19	4.71	6.19	2.01	7.53	3.54
18	Minnesota	Big Ten (West)	7	9	0	8.60	4.61	13.21	50.60	6.79	12.80	4.62	5.43	2.73	7.67	3.80
19	Notre Dame	Ind	16	7	2	3.73	9.31	13.04	50.10	3.33	9.50	3.93	6.61	2.71	7.85	3.37
20	Baylor	Big 12	12	9	0	6.67	6.13	12.79	50.07	5.94	10.12	4.79	6.26	2.14	7.9

[joeycovers 399]

7 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Not that the SRS rating at CFB Reference is the end-all, be-all but that's got Utah 6th and OU 8th. Takes margin of victory and compares against schedule strength. The SRS is the sixth  column of numbers.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2019-ratings.html

1	Ohio State	Big Ten (East)	2	9	0	11.07	18.04	29.11	71.33	-9.05	11.51	2.95	8.24	1.17	9.27	2.09
2	Alabama	SEC (West)	4	8	1	14.13	7.79	21.92	64.13	2.59	12.52	4.40	6.63	2.34	9.50	3.37
3	LSU	SEC (West)	1	9	0	15.54	6.10	21.64	63.95	4.34	12.11	4.98	6.03	1.44	9.00	3.35
4	Clemson	ACC (Atlantic)	3	10	0	4.04	15.40	19.44	57.01	-2.19	9.71	3.49	7.95	1.76	8.70	2.57
5	Penn State	Big Ten (East)	9	8	1	4.30	14.25	18.55	56.39	-3.05	10.67	4.80	6.62	1.11	8.30	3.13
6	Utah	Pac-12 (South)	8	8	1	3.23	14.79	18.02	48.03	-2.09	12.26	3.52	5.99	1.47	8.10	2.83
7	Georgia	SEC (East)	5	8	1	3.61	14.20	17.81	51.26	-4.03	10.03	4.25	7.09	1.46	8.36	3.02
8	Wisconsin	Big Ten (West)	15	7	2	2.39	15.06	17.44	55.58	-5.25	10.47	3.39	7.00	1.33	8.20	2.56
9	Oklahoma	Big 12	10	8	1	14.47	2.91	17.38	63.36	9.47	14.03	5.21	8.25	2.76	10.58	3.91
10	Auburn	SEC (West)	13	7	2	4.62	12.71	17.33	51.11	-3.90	9.29	3.62	6.57	1.36	7.52	2.66
11	Oregon	Pac-12 (North)	6	8	1	6.10	10.31	16.41	54.54	1.92	10.15	3.90	6.49	2.18	7.99	3.21
12	Michigan	Big Ten (East)	14	7	2	7.13	8.30	15.43	52.28	0.09	9.78	3.93	5.84	1.18	7.39	2.58
13	Navy	American (West)	21	7	1	6.84	8.19	15.03	52.75	4.57	15.14	4.20	7.22	1.98	8.15	3.53
14	Florida	SEC (East)	11	8	2	4.02	9.92	13.94	52.14	0.26	10.34	5.22	5.98	2.14	8.16	3.57
15	Iowa	Big Ten (West)	23	6	3	-0.03	13.83	13.80	44.21	-4.86	9.83	4.02	5.82	2.34	7.54	3.30
16	Memphis	American (West)	18	8	1	12.88	0.81	13.70	54.33	11.12	12.16	4.54	6.22	2.74	8.55	3.94
17	Cincinnati	American (East)	17	8	1	3.92	9.55	13.47	48.04	3.19	10.19	4.71	6.19	2.01	7.53	3.54
18	Minnesota	Big Ten (West)	7	9	0	8.60	4.61	13.21	50.60	6.79	12.80	4.62	5.43	2.73	7.67	3.80
19	Notre Dame	Ind	16	7	2	3.73	9.31	13.04	50.10	3.33	9.50	3.93	6.61	2.71	7.85	3.37
20	Baylor	Big 12	12	9	0	6.67	6.13	12.79	50.07	5.94	10.12	4.79	6.26	2.14	7.9

#2 Bama

#3 LSU

 

I quit reading 

[JBJ 3780]

Deleted the quote:  this is a reply to @TXSooner518

Yes, Arkansas.  Forgot about Vanderbilt still being left.  Make that 5 gimmes, and I guess they will squeak into a bowl.

 

Florida is 28th in OFEI and 21st in DFEI.

43rd in DFD (first down rate - they bend),

54th in DED (possessions with over 10 YPP - they break).

Somewhat like Texas: they stuff the run, play turnovers, but have and will break against any team willing and able to throw the ball (albeit with a higher threshold of competence).

I don't think I'd bet on Baylor because Baylor meets the profile of a team they'd beat in a low-scoring affair (stagnant offense, strong defense).  Conversely, I'd pick the other 3 B12 teams I named to beat them, because they'd simply score more points.

Edited November 13, 2019 by JBJ

[sidis 9990]

3 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

 

Don't get me wrong, it isn't likely, it was more for illustrative purposes. And I'm not rock-solid sure what the Sugar Bowl selection process for the SEC team is (I know the B12 champ goes if they don't go to playoff, and if B12 champ goes to playoff, B12 title game loser must go to Sugar, no options). And yeah, it would involve Alabama worming into the playoff lol. Georgia loses to Auburn and Aggy, LSU over UF in SEC title game, 2 loss conference champs elsewhere, or a 12-1 B12 champ Baylor. 

Not really fair to say OU went chickenshit on the OOC. They played a team that has been a top G5 team, and a road game against a P5 team that's been bowl-eligible 6 of the last 7 seasons and is solid traditional team. They can't control that they both are quite a bit below average this year. That said, they have the schedule they have, and you can ding them for it, but can't really call it chickenshit. I mean, would scheduling @Minnesota have actually been any more "gutsy" than @UCLA?  

I also would say both KSU and Texas are above "mediocre" and KSU is better than USC, come on. What do you think would give Utah a better resume than OU if both win out? OU would likely have 4 ranked wins, with Utah having 1, with OU having a solid chance at their loss being ranked, and Utah's unranked.

Have fun at UGA-Auburn!

 

 

 

if utah wins out, they will have a wins over oregon and washington which will be substantially better than anything ou can throw out there.  and by the end of the season, unlikely that those four ranked wins for ou will still be holding up.  if texas were to win out and ou beats them a second time, then that might help them but not real sure that's realistic at this point.  kstate is mediocre.  take away their ou win and they are pretty bad frankly.  they got wrecked by okie state and baylor, and lost to texas.  their best win besides ou is against miss state who is awful.  texas actually lost a football game to this year's tcu team.  that is mediocre.  the september version of texas was pretty good but we are a ways from that.  having to walk-off fgs at home against kansas and kstate to sneak away with wins is the definition of mediocre.

ou absolutely went chickenshit.  the only thing i ever liked about bob was his fuck you, we'll play anywhere anytime attitude.  his ooc games were bama, oregon, washington, miami, florida state, notre dame, tennessee, and ohio state.  granted, like ucla, some of those teams were down at the time they played them (like tenn and miami) but not very many.  for everyone not named texas, scheduling ucla any year since after 1998 is scheduling a free win.  they are 75-75 since 2008.  you know exactly what you're getting when you schedule ucla.  not sure where you're getting your bowl eligible 6 of the last 7 years.  they were 3-9 in 2018 and and 4-8 in 16.  they squeaked in at 6-6 in 17 where they got destroyed by kstate.  currently 4-5.  looks like after 2022, maybe ou will get back to playing some real teams ooc.

this is what the december discussion is going to look like so get used to it.  you better be a big ass texas fan from here to the end (or i guess baylor).

[sidis 9990]

also, saying usc loss is way worse than kstate loss is also a stretch imo.  one is 6-3 and one is 6-4.  kstate losses to texas, baylor, iowa state, and oklahoma state.  usc losses to oregon, notre dame, washington, and byu.  byu is bad but those other losses aren't that bad and certainly no worse than kstate's.

[TXSooner518 2455]

25 minutes ago, sidis said:

if utah wins out, they will have a wins over oregon and washington which will be substantially better than anything ou can throw out there.  and by the end of the season, unlikely that those four ranked wins for ou will still be holding up.  if texas were to win out and ou beats them a second time, then that might help them but not real sure that's realistic at this point.  kstate is mediocre.  take away their ou win and they are pretty bad frankly.  they got wrecked by okie state and baylor, and lost to texas.  their best win besides ou is against miss state who is awful.  texas actually lost a football game to this year's tcu team.  that is mediocre.  the september version of texas was pretty good but we are a ways from that.  having to walk-off fgs at home against kansas and kstate to sneak away with wins is the definition of mediocre.

ou absolutely went chickenshit.  the only thing i ever liked about bob was his fuck you, we'll play anywhere anytime attitude.  his ooc games were bama, oregon, washington, miami, florida state, notre dame, tennessee, and ohio state.  granted, like ucla, some of those teams were down at the time they played them (like tenn and miami) but not very many.  for everyone not named texas, scheduling ucla any year since after 1998 is scheduling a free win.  they are 75-75 since 2008.  you know exactly what you're getting when you schedule ucla.  not sure where you're getting your bowl eligible 6 of the last 7 years.  they were 3-9 in 2018 and and 4-8 in 16.  they squeaked in at 6-6 in 17 where they got destroyed by kstate.  currently 4-5.  looks like after 2022, maybe ou will get back to playing some real teams ooc.

this is what the december discussion is going to look like so get used to it.  you better be a big ass texas fan from here to the end (or i guess baylor).

Disagree that beating Washington and Oregon would equal three wins over Baylor and Texas plus wins over Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  Oregon is a better win than those 5, but those 5 are all better/equal to Washington, and OU would have 5 good wins compared to 2.

And you're being a bit silly on the "chickenshit".  Playing Houston and at UCLA as 2 of your 3 games is significantly above P5 average for OOC scheduling. I botched the UCLA, they had 6 of the last 7 before this year, in glancing at it I thought the "blank" for 2018 was for 2019.  OU entered the agreement to play UCLA in Nov. 2013. UCLA went 9-5 in 2012 and 10-3 in 2013 and appeared to be on the rise under Mora. Mora was a hot name for other jobs. You're being disingenous with that. Houston has had a winning record 12 of the last 14 seasons. That series was announced in 2014, Houston was 26-13 the 3 years preceding the announcement. 

19 minutes ago, sidis said:

also, saying usc loss is way worse than kstate loss is also a stretch imo.  one is 6-3 and one is 6-4.  kstate losses to texas, baylor, iowa state, and oklahoma state.  usc losses to oregon, notre dame, washington, and byu.  byu is bad but those other losses aren't that bad and certainly no worse than kstate's.

KSU hasn't lost to ISU, they haven't played. Also USC got absolutely boatraced by Oregon in a way KSU hasn't yet. And BYU is dramatically worse than any KSU loss. So USC's 3 good losses roughly equal KSU's 3 as far as teams played, with only USC getting murdered, and also USC adding a shit loss. 

[Jive Turkey 12930]

i'm sure there are still those that believe the excitement and controversy and talking points regarding the selection of the top 4 make this whole thing worth it.

but damn, just give us the Power 5 conference champs and 3 at large teams.  Or even 1 at large.  6 team playoff.  top 2 get byes.  both of those will still generate controversy and discussion - who will be the wild card(s)?  who will get byes (if there's 6 teams).

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13387]

48 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

#2 Bama

#3 LSU

 

I quit reading 

Well, LSU doesn’t have a quality loss, Joey.

[JBJ 3780]

I think what's not very inuitive and affects the "good loss" argument is that going 9-1 against many bad teams is actually harder than losing to one great team and beating 9 slightly worse bad teams.

Take this example:

Team A plays ten teams that are a 90% win chance (-17).  Odds of winning 9 or more are 73.6%.

Team B plays ten teams, one is even 50% (0) and nine are 94% win chance (-17.5). Odds of winning 9 or more are 75.6% - a 2% easier schedule despite having a quality opponent.

Expected wins are the same at 9.

Tune each game to actual values and it eventually leads to: Oregon's strength of record being 20%(!) better than Alabama's That's not obvious when just glancing at the top 2-3 teams each play.

Edited November 13, 2019 by JBJ

[LonghornSean 4072]

I generally agree with this:

 

[C-Man 27686]

i'm sure there are still those that believe the excitement and controversy and talking points regarding the selection of the top 4 make this whole thing worth it.
but damn, just give us the Power 5 conference champs and 3 at large teams.  Or even 1 at large.  6 team playoff.  top 2 get byes.  both of those will still generate controversy and discussion - who will be the wild card(s)?  who will get byes (if there's 6 teams).

Yet I constantly hear dipshits like Herbie say the debates are what make the game so great and the regular season matter so much. As if the game will fall off a cliff if we go to 8-team playoff.

[TXSooner518 2455]

I generally agree with this:
 

Largely agree tho I think a 12-1 Minn that beats tOSU in the B1G title game is locked in.

[Surlybastard 65]

19 hours ago, markstanco said:

Okay, gun to your head again.

Alabama has 4 and 5 star players. Minnesota has juco and 2 star players at best. They beat Penn state this one weekend like perdue beat Ohio state this one weekend.

Why this is a conversation about Minnesota being better than alabama is absolutely insane. And I HATE alabama. I hate the espn spin on them. I hate that they aren't out of the picture. But alabama will crush them.

But it is November 12th and who cares. Ohio state will beat them by 30.

I don't give a fuck how many stars their players have. We've seen this play out over and over again in cfb where 4 and 5 star players get their asses handed to them by 3 stars and juco transfers. It not exactly something new. I don't know who would win between Minnesota and Alabama and neither do you. You just assume Bama would because 5 stars/Saban. That's the only reason that they are being ranked 5th by the committee right now. People just can't wrap their minds around the idea of Bama not being worthy of a playoff birth.

[TXSooner518 2455]

*berth.

And by that logic you should bet the money line for every single underdog. After all, no one can say who will win any game, so you’re getting odds on a 50/50 proposition! Free money!!!

[markstanco 12773]

I don't give a fuck how many stars their players have. We've seen this play out over and over again in cfb where 4 and 5 star players get their asses handed to them by 3 stars and juco transfers. It not exactly something new. I don't know who would win between Minnesota and Alabama and neither do you. You just assume Bama would because 5 stars/Saban. That's the only reason that they are being ranked 5th by the committee right now. People just can't wrap their minds around the idea of Bama not being worthy of a playoff birth.

Nick saban is a better coach than pj fleck. Nick Saban's coaches are better than pj flecks. Nick Saban's players are better than pj flecks. But yes, in a bizarro game 1 time in 50 pj fleck may win. The entire sec loses to saban constantly except once every couple of years.

[mulletpelini 5220]

dp

Edited November 14, 2019 by mulletpelini
double penetration

[mulletpelini 5220]

On 11/12/2019 at 7:16 PM, A’Dam Psycho said:

So basically Bama is gonna backdoor their way back into the CFP without the risk of losing to a top 5 team, risking injury, and a extra week of preparation?

THAT WILL NEVER HAPPENED

Saban and bama are the priest who got struck by lightning in Caddyshack.  Their name is Fred, and they're men, same as you.

[Surlybastard 65]

8 hours ago, markstanco said:

13 hours ago, Surlybastard said:

I don't give a fuck how many stars their players have. We've seen this play out over and over again in cfb where 4 and 5 star players get their asses handed to them by 3 stars and juco transfers. It not exactly something new. I don't know who would win between Minnesota and Alabama and neither do you. You just assume Bama would because 5 stars/Saban. That's the only reason that they are being ranked 5th by the committee right now. People just can't wrap their minds around the idea of Bama not being worthy of a playoff birth.

Nick saban is a better coach than pj fleck. Nick Saban's coaches are better than pj flecks. Nick Saban's players are better than pj flecks. But yes, in a bizarro game 1 time in 50 pj fleck may win. The entire sec loses to saban constantly except once every couple of years.

Nothing you said really proves anything. Players play up and down according to coaching and other factors. Stars players got from recruiting services in hs aren't the final determination of how good of players they actually are in college either. Sometimes coaches lose their fire or willingness to be hard asses to get coaches and players to play to their expectation. Saban is probably already past that point with how many asst coaches he's had to replace in recent years. Its just the cycle of life as a coach. You lose your fire, get older and don't care as much as you once did about winning.

[satyanash 15358]

 

[LTtxfan 49912]

Still trying to find a way for "Auburn the nexus?" to make CFP with 2 losses...

[JBJ 3780]

I put some rankings at the end of all the teams. These are: (Resume, Power, this week's CFP projection)

CFP odds:

1: Clemson - 92% (5, 4, 3)

-GAP-

2: Ohio State - 69% (2, 1, 1)

3: LSU - 59% (1, 3, 2)

4: Utah - 49% (10, 6, 8.)

5: ^Oklahoma - 36% (7, 7, 5)

6: Oregon - 33% (4, 9, 4)

7: ^Georgia - 31% (6, 8, 6)

-GAP-

8: vBaylor - 15% (3, 19, 10)

9: Alabama - 6% (11, 2, 7)

10: Penn State - 5% (9, 11, 9)

11: Minnesota - 2% (14, 22, 13)

Doomsday scenario (the field) 3%

 

 

Edited November 17, 2019 by JBJ

[satyanash 15358]

 

[Bama Llama 1505]

Clemson, Ohiya State and OU win out.  LSU wins out and shreds Georgia.  Bama somehow wins out.  Does OU leapfrog Bama and the Utah/Oregon winner and get in?  What irony if Jalen Hurts is the bouncer who pulls the velvet rope across the entrance to the CFP  Club and clicks it shut?  Stranger things have happened the last couple of years.  And gosh darn it I was pullin for tha Gophers.  Jeez.

[JBJ 3780]

Oklahoma would get in, imo.

 

I think the order is:

Control Destiny

Undefeated: LSU, Ohio St, Clemson

LSU with loss to aggy

tOSU with loss to Michigan

Penn State

Oklahoma

Georgia

Need help

1&2) Oregon/Utah

3) Clemson with loss to SC

4) Baylor

5) Minnesota

6) LSU with a CCG loss

7) tOSU with loss to PSU

8: Alabama

9) Clemson with CCG loss

Edited November 22, 2019 by JBJ
Auto-emoji

[TXSooner518 2455]

That PFF article is just bad. Bama 50% to get in? Clemson getting in without winning the ACC? Yeah, no.

The 3 unbeatens are obviously locks if they win out.

The B1G champion is a lock if it is 12-1 tOSU, 12-1 Penn State, or 12-1 Minnesota who beats Ohio State in the title game

The SEC champion is a lock if it is 12-1 LSU or 12-1 UGA

Then there is a muddle, which I think looks like this:
1. 12-1 non SEC-champion LSU
2. 12-1 non B1G-champion tOSU
3. 12-1 PAC champion Oregon
4. 12-1 B12 champion Oklahoma
5. 12-1 B1G champion Minnesota beating PSU in title game
6. 12-1 ACC champion Clemson
7. 12-1 PAC champion Utah
8. 11-1 non B1G-champion tOSU
9. 11-1 non SEC-champion Bama
10. 11-2 SEC champion UGA
11. 12-1 B12 champion Baylor
12. 11-2 B1G champion Wisconsin
13. 11-2 PAC champion Oregon

Other than Wisconsin and 2-loss Oregon, which are definitely below the rest listed, you could put these 12 in a lot of different orders and I wouldn't be totally shocked. 

[JBJ 3780]

Ohio State rolls.  Oregon and Penn State fall.

 

Here's my update:

1: Clemson - 92% (6, 4, 3)

2: ^Ohio State - 79% (2, 1, 1)

3: LSU - 61% (1, 3, 2)

4: ^Oklahoma - 46% (5, 8, 6)

5: Georgia - 41% (4, 6, 3)

6: vUtah - 36% (8, 7, 7)

7: ^Baylor - 28% (3, 18, 12)

8: Alabama - 10% (9, 2, 5)

9: Minnesota - 2% (13, 21, 15)

Doomsday scenario (the field) 6%

Eliminated: Penn State, Oregon

 

Control Destiny

Undefeated: LSU, Ohio St, Clemson

tOSU with loss to Michigan

LSU with loss to aggy

Georgia

Oklahoma

Need help

1) Utah

2) Clemson with loss to SC

3) Baylor

4) Minnesota

5) tOSU with CCG loss

6) LSU with Georgia loss

7) Alabama

8: Clemson with CCG loss

Edited November 24, 2019 by JBJ

[alincoln 2390]

Oregon's loss was massive because the Pac-10 championship was beginning to look like a play-in game. 

Minnesota probably also controls its own destiny.  Baylor likely only needs Oregon to beat Utah.

 

[C-Man 27686]

New rankings come out last night and this isn’t bumped? Guess we don’t care.

1 Ohio St

2 LSU

3 Clemson

4 Georgia

5 Alabama

6 Utah

7 Oklahoma

8 Baylor

9 Minnesota

That covers all unbeaten and 1-loss teams.

 

[El Diablo 4232]

Looks like they're pre-positioning teams to give justification to their final decisions.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5854]

On 11/27/2019 at 12:52 PM, El Diablo said:

Looks like they're pre-positioning teams to give justification to their final decisions.

Everyone loves OSU and LSU this year, but this shit is setting up for a 1 OSU vs 4 Bama and 2 LSU vs 3 Clemson and the country is going to get exactly what they are sick of: Bama/Clemson #5. 

[satyanash 15358]

 

[satyanash 15358]

 

[mdmost 43852]

Say hello to Backdoor OU unless oSu or Baylor can stop them. Utah isn't getting the nod over OU, especially if KSU wins tonight. Both would have equivalent losses. 

[Zavala 1384]

 

[Dewey 3325]

24 minutes ago, Zavala said:

 

Dabo was pretty good this afternoon,  saying had his team lost the S Carolina, everyone would be looking for a way to keep them out. Uga loses at home to them and its "how do we get Uga back in it?"

We need an 8 team playoff to put these biases to bed. Clemson has proved that one team can not quiet the whole storm.

[JBJ 3780]

Here's how I see it going into CCGs:

 

Control Destiny

1) Ohio State - undefeated (78%)

2) LSU - undefeated (63%)

3) Clemson - undefeated (92%)

4) Georgia - SEC Champ (37%)

5) Utah - P12 champ (58%)

Need Help

1) B12 Champion - Oklahoma (35%) or Baylor (25%), odds of spot opening are 60%

3) Ohio State - with a loss (2%), odds of spot opening 7%

4) LSU - with a loss (2%), odds of spot opening 5%

5) Clemson - with a loss (<1%), odds of spot opening 3%

Next out: Wisconsin, Oregon, Alabama,

 

Oklahoma and Utah are very close.  Oklahoma has the better resume, but the B12 grind has not been kind to them as far as "eye test."

Edited December 1, 2019 by JBJ

[mdmost 43852]

If Georgia upsets LSU, I still see LSU going. LSU moves to 4th, plays #1 Ohio State. Georgia moves to 3rd, plays #2 Clemson. Utah and OU are on the outside looking in.