Texas opens as a 10.5 point underdog v Oklahoma

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Funk Doctor Spock 12512]

Sermon is their best RB, imo. OU will forever suck, but he's definitely good enough for the NFL. 

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Thermos H. Christ 478]

Not to be bitchassed but #121 passing defense vs. the top air raid team of the last few years... I have concerns.

Of course, that kind of logic has never applied to this game, so let's fuck em up. If a 1-4 Charlie Strong Texas team could walk in there and hand a playoff-bound OU their only regular season loss, how could you ever ever count out a 4-1 Tom Herman team with Sam Ehlinger at the helm? We got this.

[Tex Pete 20484]

5 minutes ago, Thermos H. Christ said:

Not to be bitchassed but #121 passing defense vs. the top air raid team of the last few years... I have concerns.

Squirts is not Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray. He's a good (not dynamic) runner, and an OK passer.

[texifornia 57101]

9 minutes ago, Thermos H. Christ said:

Not to be bitchassed but #121 passing defense vs. the top air raid team of the last few years... I have concerns.

Of course, that kind of logic has never applied to this game, so let's fuck em up. If a 1-4 Charlie Strong Texas team could walk in there and hand a playoff-bound OU their only regular season loss, how could you ever ever count out a 4-1 Tom Herman team with Sam Ehlinger at the helm? We got this.

Unadjusted numbers are the devil's playthings. We're not good, but we're not that bad.

[SA-KC_Horn 1295]

 Stack the box and blitz every down.

I overheard that from the shitter next to Orlando's office.

[Sgt Hulk 13840]

3 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

The semi-credible OU reporters I've heard think that Ealy should be back, but probably not Swenson. OU has started 5 different OL combos in their 5 games, definitely something to watch for.

Luckily for them they have 5 combos but we only have 3 linemen every single play so advantage you methhead toothless fucks 

[Pig Bellmont 8738]

8 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Unadjusted numbers are the devil's playthings. We're not good, but we're not that bad.

This. Purely yardage based statistics are garbage 

[BabaYaga 15320]

7 minutes ago, texifornia said:

We're not good, but we're not that bad.

Pretty sure that was one of my wedding vows...

'You know a pretty girl she'll leave you
Leave you to drown in your own tears
You know an ugly girl well, she'll
Leave you too
But then again who really cares'!

 

 

[alincoln 2385]

9 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

This. Purely yardage based statistics are garbage 

Exactly.  On an adjusted per play basis we are all the way up to 118 per Huck's site.   

[Ghost of Shag 2615]

Rewatched the WV game. They never should have even scored 20 points. Should have ended with seventeen. Fourth quarter defense was just terrible. Regardless, here are the big takeaways:

1. We’d better play run defense better than we have the last few games. Part of why WV stayed close early was because they gashed us in the run game. Our three man front just invites teams to run and we’re not defending it well lately.

2. Penalties killed us. We have to be smarter.

3. It’s hard to believe how bad Cook has been. He starts ten yards off the WR and is backpedaling before the ball is even snapped. If I’m the opposition, I pick on him all day long. It’s just amazing how bad our dbs look at times. Jason Washington needs to be held accountable.

4. None of our guys had much success against Sills. He made Shack, Kerstetter and Angilau look bad for much of the game.

5. Sam’s honing in on Duvernay too much. Hopefully getting CJ back changes this, because his timing just isn’t there with Washington and Epps, and Epps is playing sissy ball anyway.

6. Roach and Graham were no-shows. I don’t even remember hearing Roach’s name once. What a disappointment he has been.

7. Kenyatta Watson. Yikes.

8. Our punt returners look scared shitless.

All that and the game was still never really in question. Should have been about 49-17, but that’s what you get when you turn the ball over and commit stupid penalties.

We’d better play a hell of a lot better this week.

Edited October 8, 2019 by Ghost of Shag

[Tylerocks 2553]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of Shag said:

Rewatched the WV game. They never should have even scored 20 points. Should have ended with seventeen. Fourth quarter defense was just terrible. Regardless, here are the big takeaways:

1. We’d better play run defense better than we have the last few games. Part of why WV stayed close early was because they gashed us in the run game. Our three man front just invites teams to run and we’re not defending it well lately.

2. Penalties killed us. We have to be smarter.

3. It’s hard to believe how bad Cook has been. He starts ten yards off the WR and is backpedaling before the ball is even snapped. If I’m the opposition, I pick on him all day long. It’s just amazing how bad our dbs look at times. Jason Washington needs to be held accountable.

4. None of our guys had much success against Sills. He made Shack, Kerstetter and Angilau look bad for much of the game.

5. Sam’s honing in on Duvernay too much. Hopefully getting CJ back changes this, because his timing just isn’t there with Washington and Epps, and Epps is playing sissy ball anyway.

6. Roach and Graham were no-shows. I don’t even remember hearing Roach’s name once. What a disappointment he has been.

7. Kenyatta Watson. Yikes.

8. Our punt returners look scared shitless.

All that and the game was still never really in question. Should have been about 49-17, but that’s what you get when you turn the ball over and commit stupid penalties.

We’d better play a hell of a lot better this week.

Well we found the guy that switched out his kool aid, for urine.

[Ghost of Shag 2615]

1 minute ago, Tylerocks said:

Well we found the guy that switched out his kool aid, for urine.

We’re still going to punch Oklahoma in the mouth. I have no doubts about that.

That doesn’t equate to playing smart and using the right personnel.

Edited October 8, 2019 by Ghost of Shag

[Goodman 3273]

Just now, Tylerocks said:

Well we found the guy that switched out his kool aid, for urine.

No shit. Has to be a bad attempt at humor. 

[BurdineBandit 815]

I'm looking forward to a better D-line game. Maybe not Graham (bc I'm not sold on him), but Roach and Coburn will be fine. They will be playing with a fire under their ass and will be helped with tons of blitzing, just like last year. We only employ 3 down lineman, and 4 is the base rush if Ossai is off the edge, so yes they tend to get doubled a lot. I didn't see much of any exotic blitzes last week, and it seemed Brown was really quiet because he was having to hang back and make up for the loss of Sterns in center field (or cover for Jones while Jones played center). The blitzing will be back this week, and when Hurts' overrated legs take off, I'm confident in Foster, Jones or Brown taking him down on the outside. We can handle him. If we get Overshown back we'll be even more equipped.

Sam was honing on Duvernay, like staring him down, but with CJ back that changes absolutely everything. They'll either have to shade to CJ or leave him 1-on-1, and OU don't have Stingley, Jr. playing for them, so good luck.

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

12 minutes ago, alincoln said:

Exactly.  On an adjusted per play basis we are all the way up to 118 per Huck's site.   

If you just look at the AdjustedStats.com site (which I like using simply because it comes up quickly from my bookmarks page, and is easy to read, and if that's not a good enough reason in this day and age, then go find the ghost of PhxHorn and buy him a scotch and soda), you can get a pretty good bird's-eye-view of the state of our statistical being, and it's kind of remarkable to me that in 2019, after 20+ years of air raid offenses taking the lid off the game with basketball on grass, Texas is giving up 325 yards per game through the air, and that is 122nd in FBS. On offense, we're churning out 308 through the air, and that ranks 17th. But just looking at the product on the field, you wouldn't call Texas an "air raid" team, or a "basketball on grass" team, or anything of the sort.

It just seems weirdly out of sync, somehow.

Anyway, I'm more interested in the "Per Possession" stats from that page.

PER POSSESSION	RAW	ADJUSTED
Offensive Points	3.30 (10)	3.28 (8)
Defensive Points	2.15 (62)	1.86 (45)
Offensive Yards	39.64 (15)	41.01 (14)
Defensive Yards	35.63 (87)	35.61 (82)
Offensive Turnovers	0.082 (25)	0.094 (44)
Defensive Turnovers	0.161 (32)	0.136 (58)
Turnover Margin	0.079 (17)	0.042 (37)

It's interesting to me that the Offensive Points are top 10 both Raw and Adjusted, and the Defensive points are mediocre Raw, but significantly better Adjusted. 

The bottom line is, you can really tell that whether we choose to admit it or not, this is a "bend, don't break" defense, that is designed to get just enough stops, hopefully several by turnover, to let the offense win the game. As such, I wouldn't worry about yardage measurements for overall defensive numbers -- they are even less meaningful than usual, and usually, they are only sort of meaningful.

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

Oh, and if anybody is interested, here's the "Per Possession" numbers for OU:

PER POSSESSION	RAW	ADJUSTED
Offensive Points	4.38 (1)	4.49 (1)
Defensive Points	1.82 (38)	1.75 (38)
Offensive Yards	55.24 (1)	54.60 (1)
Defensive Yards	30.96 (47)	29.59 (42)
Offensive Turnovers	0.089 (31)	0.116 (55)
Defensive Turnovers	0.067 (111)	0.092 (98)
Turnover Margin	-0.022 (80)	-0.024 (82)

Areas of opportunity versus this team are obvious. Areas of concern are equally obvious. Which is why this is always a good game.

[LTtxfan 49356]

Expect Grinch will set up blOU defense to take away Devin on 3rd downs.  Will be interesting to see how Herman gameplans to beat the blOU defense...

Would be great to see Eagles and Jake Smith have great performances Saturday.

[texifornia 57101]

1 minute ago, LTtxfan said:

Expect Grinch will set up blOU defense to take away Devin on 3rd downs.  Will be interesting to see how Herman gameplans to beat the blOU defense...

Would be great to see Eagles and Jake Smith have great performances Saturday.

CJ being back answers so many of our issues around scheming Duv out of plays and what to do on third downs.

[Burt Macklin 19053]

1 minute ago, Walden Ponderer said:

If you just look at the AdjustedStats.com site (which I like using simply because it comes up quickly from my bookmarks page, and is easy to read, and if that's not a good enough reason in this day and age, then go find the ghost of PhxHorn and buy him a scotch and soda), you can get a pretty good bird's-eye-view of the state of our statistical being, and it's kind of remarkable to me that in 2019, after 20+ years of air raid offenses taking the lid off the game with basketball on grass, Texas is giving up 325 yards per game through the air, and that is 122nd in FBS. On offense, we're churning out 308 through the air, and that ranks 17th. But just looking at the product on the field, you wouldn't call Texas an "air raid" team, or a "basketball on grass" team, or anything of the sort.

It just seems weirdly out of sync, somehow.

Anyway, I'm more interested in the "Per Possession" stats from that page.

PER POSSESSION	RAW	ADJUSTED
Offensive Points	3.30 (10)	3.28 (8)
Defensive Points	2.15 (62)	1.86 (45)
Offensive Yards	39.64 (15)	41.01 (14)
Defensive Yards	35.63 (87)	35.61 (82)
Offensive Turnovers	0.082 (25)	0.094 (44)
Defensive Turnovers	0.161 (32)	0.136 (58)
Turnover Margin	0.079 (17)	0.042 (37)

It's interesting to me that the Offensive Points are top 10 both Raw and Adjusted, and the Defensive points are mediocre Raw, but significantly better Adjusted. 

The bottom line is, you can really tell that whether we choose to admit it or not, this is a "bend, don't break" defense, that is designed to get just enough stops, hopefully several by turnover, to let the offense win the game. As such, I wouldn't worry about yardage measurements for overall defensive numbers -- they are even less meaningful than usual, and usually, they are only sort of meaningful.

Orlando’s always coached with a philosophy of forcing negative possessions, even if that means sometimes giving up quick scores and chunk plays on other possessions. He’ll always rank better on a per drive basis than a total yardage or yards per play basis, which is why he’s almost always higher in FEI than S&P+.
 

People, like Connelly, always claim that yardage is a leading factor while drive success is a lagging indicator. But Orlando has been able to consistently “over-perform” on per drive success compared to his yardage numbers. There’s a big enough sample size to believe it’s something he can consistently replicate at this point. 
 

Our passing defense definitely needs to improve, but people freaking out about total yardage or passing yards need to chill. We’re inarguably a better defense than those numbers indicate.

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

1 minute ago, Burt Macklin said:

People, like Connelly, always claim that yardage is a leading factor while drive success is a lagging indicator. But Orlando has been able to consistently “over-perform” on per drive success compared to his yardage numbers. There’s a big enough sample size to believe it’s something he can consistently replicate at this point. 

Well, if everyone lined up in either the I or the wishbone, Connelly would be 100% correct.

[TXSooner518 2438]

13 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

If you just look at the AdjustedStats.com site 

I like that one too! What does it say our shitty run game with our shitty RBs is in adjusted (so taking into account the worst 5 game schedule any team has ever had) yards per carry?

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

Just now, TXSooner518 said:

I like that one too! What does it say our shitty run game with our shitty RBs is in adjusted (so taking into account the worst 5 game schedule any team has ever had) yards per carry?

Just keep sittin' there, man. I've already planted my flag in the 'yards aren't the proper measure' camp, in case you hadn't noticed. You know, back in the day, Chuck Weatherspoon had a shitload of yards per carry. That didn't make Jack Pardee's Houston teams "a good running team".

[Voluminous Banality 1032]

Better yet, what were OU's adjusted offensive numbers going into last year's RRS? I didn't catch the game, but I bet we didn't have a chance.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[TXSooner518 2438]

Just now, Walden Ponderer said:

Just keep sittin' there, man. I've already planted my flag in the 'yards aren't the proper measure' camp, in case you hadn't noticed. You know, back in the day, Chuck Weatherspoon had a shitload of yards per carry. That didn't make Jack Pardee's Houston teams "a good running team".

So what is the proper measure of a run game if not adjusted yards per carry, in your opinion? They are also top 10 in adjusted rush yards/game and #1 in adjusted yards and adjusted points per possession.

[TXSooner518 2438]

5 minutes ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Better yet, what were OU's adjusted offensive numbers going into last year's RRS? I didn't catch the game, but I bet we didn't have a chance.

Not arguing that it means OU is a lock, WP posted that OU's RBs were "frankly not good" and also that the OL had taken a big step back. Pretty hard for both of those to be true, and OU still be dominant in the run game in all metrics. For the record, assertion #2 is accurate and #1 is completely absurd in every way.

Also, OU's adjusted numbers looked exactly the same in 2018 on one side of the ball and dramatically different in 2018 on the other side of the ball. I would expect 45 points will be enough to win this year.

Edited October 8, 2019 by TXSooner518

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

18 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

So what is the proper measure of a run game if not adjusted yards per carry, in your opinion? They are also top 10 in adjusted rush yards/game and #1 in adjusted yards and adjusted points per possession.

Your offense is the best in the country. I never said they weren't. Hell, I posted the damned stats that I think prove it.

I said that Hurts is the reason your run game works, not your running backs, who (having seen them play) don't impress me that much.. If the planned QB run dimension were taken away, and if the passing game were limited (and, again, I would say good luck finding a defense that can do that consistently), then y'all would be in trouble, because on their own, especially behind this year's version of y'all's OL, that would not be very intimidating.

If Texas wins, it will be because they took away Hurts' threat to run, got TFL on a significant number of first downs, and limited passing conversions on 3rd and long. Limiting the RBs should not really be that big a part of the game plan, because if Texas does those first three things, the RBs won't be a factor anyway.

If OU's RBs run wild, it will be because Texas did not do those first three things, not because OU's RBs are all that great. Anybody can run through a defense that's backpedalling for its life because they're afraid on 2nd & short of Lamb, et al., going house, or Hurts taking a QB sweep for 20+ yards. Hell, I could probably do it, and I'm a slow, middle-aged, pencil-pusher.

My premise is really pretty simple: OU's offense is great, and yes, statistically, that includes YPC by your running backs. But it's not because they're something special.

Edited October 8, 2019 by Walden Ponderer
Three things, not two. Math requires staying awake.

[Drew 2522]

I know Hurts is dangerous as a runner...but never thought of him like a Murray type runner.  The little Ewok was so quick and elusive he made guys miss in a way I don't think I've seen Hurts do. 

Hope that means they can actually tackle him...had trouble doing it to Kyler.

Edited October 8, 2019 by Drew

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

1 minute ago, Drew said:

I know Hurts is dangerous as a runner...but never thought of him like a Murray type runner.  The little Ewok was so quick and elusive he made guys miss in a way I don't think I've seen Hurts do. 

Hope that means they can actually tackle him...had trouble doing it to Kyler.

Hurts is nowhere near the scrambler Murray is, but he's far more reliable, sturdy, and IMO a better manager and "big game" kind of guy. Murray's more talented, but I'd take Hurts any day of the week and twice on Sunday. I'd rather be playing against Murray -- the odds of rattling him weren't all that great, but they were better than the odds of rattling Hurts. 

[TXSooner518 2438]

7 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Your post

I disagree with your premise about OU's backs, but that was a fair and well-thought-out response. Posrep.

[BabaYaga 15320]

2 minutes ago, Drew said:

I know Hurts is dangerous as a runner...but never thought of him like a Murray type runner.  The little Ewok was so quick and elusive he made guys miss in a way I don't think I've seen Hurts do. 

Hope that means they can actually tackle him...had trouble doing it to Kyler.

Hurts ins't shifty, but he's large, fast, and strong and difficult for a single defender to take down.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

 

This ought to become the Surly theme song... Too much doom and despair on here.   I feel like we are back in the Charlie Strong / end of Mack era.

 

Carry on ladies.

 

 

[Eastwood 4394]

2 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

"I'm just here so I don't get fined."

[C-Man 27262]

31 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Just keep sittin' there, man. I've already planted my flag in the 'yards aren't the proper measure' camp, in case you hadn't noticed. You know, back in the day, Chuck Weatherspoon had a shitload of yards per carry. That didn't make Jack Pardee's Houston teams "a good running team".

Whether you want to say UH's Run-and-Shoot teams were good at running the ball or not, they were pretty fucking effective when they ran. The Cougars did throw three passes for every run in 1990 but Weatherspoon eclipsed 1,000 yards three straight years and left UH with an all-time 8.2 yards per carry average. They certainly didn't have the system or talent perhaps to line up in a Power I and beat you predominantly running the football but you can be damn sure the Horns would've gladly taken C. Spoon on their roster.

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

2 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

This ought to become the Surly theme song... Too much doom and despair on here.   I feel like we are back in the Charlie Strong / end of Mack era.

No shit. OU is obviously the best team we're going to play during the regular season, but I've got us beating them twice. Partly because I'm a homer, partly because I just hates 'em, but mostly because I'm a believer in what this team does and how they do it. The gloom is an understandable side effect of Mack & Charlie PTSD, but Jesus, it's time to be over it already.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Pig Bellmont 8738]

11 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

Meh. He didn’t say anything. Just dumb media trying to bait him into bb material 

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

3 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

No shit. OU is obviously the best team we're going to play during the regular season, but I've got us beating them twice. Partly because I'm a homer, partly because I just hates 'em, but mostly because I'm a believer in what this team does and how they do it. The gloom is an understandable side effect of Mack & Charlie PTSD, but Jesus, it's time to be over it already.

Exactly.   

Let's cut to the chase and because of our loss to LSU, the sports media has all their cards in the OU basket.   Quietly you hear a few of them note they've played  a dog shit schedule.  But I can almost be certain if we played the same schedule and we were sitting at 5-0,  Herbie and the rest of the media boys and girls  on ESPN would be noting and repeating every time they had "Texas has played a weak schedule."  And this ridiculous score spread would not be betting line in Vegas.

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

Are OU's tackles playing?

[C-Man 27262]

16 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Hurts is nowhere near the scrambler Murray is, but he's far more reliable, sturdy, and IMO a better manager and "big game" kind of guy. Murray's more talented, but I'd take Hurts any day of the week and twice on Sunday. I'd rather be playing against Murray -- the odds of rattling him weren't all that great, but they were better than the odds of rattling Hurts. 

Hurts is a "big game" guy? The national title he "won" at Bama was when he was so bad in the first half against Georgia in the title game that Saban pulled him for Tua, who led the Tide back. He didn't play many meaningful snaps at all last year until having to come on for injured Tua at the end of the SEC title game. He did, of course, help push the Tide past UGA but didn't play a meaningful snap after that.

[Machinator 32099]

1 minute ago, Bruh Man said:

Are OU's tackles playing?

Sounds like Ealy might play but Swenson probably won't.

[Bruh Man 3160]

4 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Sounds like Ealy might play but Swenson probably won't.

Interesting...Roach really needs to step it up then. 

[Extra Anejo 99]

All the stats for the season are meaningless in this game. This game comes down to players, turnovers, coaching adjustments, and injuries.  Somehow UT wins and it doesn't matter how or by how much.

[gernblansten 3197]

8 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Hurts is a "big game" guy? The national title he "won" at Bama was when he was so bad in the first half against Georgia in the title game that Saban pulled him for Tua, who led the Tide back. He didn't play many meaningful snaps at all last year until having to come on for injured Tua at the end of the SEC title game. He did, of course, help push the Tide past UGA but didn't play a meaningful snap after that.

Every SEC game is a big game.  It just means more.  Unless the SEC team didn't want to be there. 

[Wally Pryor 5263]

27 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Sounds like Ealy might play but Swenson probably won't.

Yesterday, both were unlikely to play. 

New news on Ealy?

[ztejas 43537]

24 minutes ago, Extra Anejo said:

All the stats for the season are meaningless in this game. This game comes down to players, turnovers, coaching adjustments, and injuries.  Somehow UT wins and it doesn't matter how or by how much.

I would honestly go a step further and say that this game basically comes down to who hates the other team and wants it more. Who is willing to get nastier.

Freaking Case McCoy beat OU.

[C-Man 27262]

1 minute ago, ztejas said:

I would honestly go a step further and say that this game basically comes down to who hates the other team and wants it more. Who is willing to get nastier.

Freaking Case McCoy beat OU.

As did Tyrone Swoopes