Texas opens as a 10.5 point underdog v Oklahoma

[Machinator 32099]

I'm always partial to this picture.

 

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Machinator 32099]

 

[TreatyOak 16422]

[Hank_Hill 18894]

Up to 11.5 on my book after I already put in on 10. Fine, twist my arm.

[Red Five 40895]

I want to hammer that line. But I also don’t want to be sitting in the Cotton Bowl thinking about a bet.

[Not a cat 5704]

This is what is referred to as a stinky line.  I want to hammer it but it's so far out of whack with what I believe will happen that I think it's a trap.  Of course I'm also an idiot that bet a substantial sum (for me at least) on Texas +5 versus LSU because I thought we would blow out LSU and their stone age offense. 

There's also the money line angle of +310 which puts us at less than 25% of winning outright.  I'm trying to figure out how this game is anything but a coin flip and i can't.    

[DanTheHorn 4966]

Accurately predicting who is going to win this game rarely happens. Especially this time, I feel it is all bluster and hot air on either side if they do. The teams are to closely matched and there are a ton of factors that will decide how this game goes outside of X and O's and talent. In 2005 one just knew Texas was going to win and that is the only year this century there was no doubt.

We will not know how it is going to go until we find out the following:

1) Who comes out with the higher sense of urgency?

2) Is their in obvious team that is coming out with a much bigger chip on their shoulder and hitting the other harder in the mouth?

3) Who wants it more on that day?

4) Are there unforced errors that just change the whole game?

Both teams have staffs that can put  together a game plan and make the adjustments that can win. Both teams have the talent and pressure to win. My gut tells me with a great deal of certainty that we are going to win. I have not felt this way since 2009 but it is just a feeling. Logically, I just need to sit back and watch as the game starts getting settled on the field. If 1, 2 and 3 are on the side of Texas all we have to do is avoid #4 and we come away with a victory.

Edited October 9, 2019 by DanTheHorn

[gmr548 16616]

Orlando has done it to OU before. When his UH defense put the hurt on the Sooners, they got pressure all game long with 3 + 1, and the 1 came from a different angle every single down, all game long. And that OU line was better than this one.

Ed Oliver and Tyus Bowser are playing on Saturday?

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Skipper 6200]

1 hour ago, TXSooner518 said:

From AdjustedStats.com, Texas D has gone from #27 and #34 in defensive yards and point allowed per possession to #45 and #82. Defensive ypp from #22 to #79. The level of mental maneuvering to think the 2019 Texas D is better than the 2018 Texas D is beyond my ability to fathom. Texas O is better this year for sure. 

 

I hate to agree with the Sooner on this thread but I also wholeheartedly disagree our defense to date this year is better than last.  They may be comparable by the end of the year but certainly not yet.  I see GJ, Davis and Boyd mentioned but I would say Omenihu is GREATLY missed.  He played really well both games last year against an elite OL.  

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Tylerocks 2553]

My eyes tell me our D is not good.  

You geeks can throw out all the stats you want, adjusted or otherwise to try to justify our D being better than they appear.

They're not.

 

That being said we're 4-1 and at the end of the day that's all that matters.

 

It's 2:16.....

 

 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4801]

10 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I hate to agree with the Sooner on this thread but I also wholeheartedly disagree our defense to date this year is better than last.  They may be comparable by the end of the year but certainly not yet.  I see GJ, Davis and Boyd mentioned but I would say Omenihu is GREATLY missed.  He played really well both games last year against an elite OL.  

I thought about including Omenihu in my post above, because I agree he would be one of the best three on the line this year. But, Graham has been solid and Coburn and Roach are so much better than Nelson and Hager that I actually wouldn't say he's been "GREATLY missed". To the contrary, I think our D Line has been better overall this year.  

[Sgt Hulk 13839]

Until this team and it’s staff show a blood in water pipe hitting mentality my confidence will always be lukewarm. This just get the W and let up everyone is friends after shit doesn’t cut it. Every team lined up against Texas wanting to main injury and win by 100.  We don’t.  Our guys may be tougher but the 4th qtr when it’s time to fuck OUs mom and sister they choose to go home and get a good nights rest before church.  That is the deciding factor. Everyone hates us. We need to let hate in heart. It’s good for the soul 

Edited October 9, 2019 by Sgt Hulk

[Bruh Man 3160]

44 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Accurately predicting who is going to win this game rarely happens. Especially this time, I feel it is all bluster and hot air on either side if they do. The teams are to closely matched and there are a ton of factors that will decide how this game goes outside of X and O's and talent. In 2005 one just knew Texas was going to win and that is the only year this century there was no doubt.

We will not know how it is going to go until we find out the following:

1) Who comes out with the higher sense of urgency?

2) Is their in obvious team that is coming out with a much bigger chip on their shoulder and hitting the other harder in the mouth?

3) Who wants it more on that day?

4) Are there unforced errors that just change the whole game?

Both teams have staffs that can put  together a game plan and make the adjustments that can win. Both teams have the talent and pressure to win. My gut tells me with a great deal of certainty that we are going to win. I have not felt this way since 2009 but it is just a feeling. Logically, I just need to sit back and watch as the game starts getting settled on the field. If 1, 2 and 3 are on the side of Texas all we have to do is avoid #4 and we come away with a victory.

I think we can play with intensity and a chip on our shoulder and still lose this game by double digits because of our current DB situation. Dline has play out of this world to make up for the inexperience on the backend. It would be nice to get freshman year Malcolm Roach in this game and another interception from Dele and/or Ossai. 

Edited October 9, 2019 by Bruh Man

[Skipper 6200]

17 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

I thought about including Omenihu in my post above, because I agree he would be one of the best three on the line this year. But, Graham has been solid and Coburn and Roach are so much better than Nelson and Hager that I actually wouldn't say he's been "GREATLY missed". To the contrary, I think our D Line has been better overall this year.  

Omenihu is in a different league than Graham.  Literally. He's playing well on Sundays now.  Graham flashes here and there but overall hasn't shown to be anything but average to date. Same with Roach.   Coburn is slightly a step up from Nelson (he will be much better with time) but he's only playing so many snaps her game.  And the other young DT's will also be very good with time but they aren't there yet.  But Omenihu was Big 12 DL of the year last year.  We don't have anyone playing close to that level.  I'm not willing to say any unit on D is better overall than last year.  They sure as hell haven't proven it.   And it's not that high of a bar.  

I'm not saying the D can't compete and play a great game on Saturday and force turnovers and otherwise slow the Sooners down some. I fully think the potential is there.  But we haven't seen it yet.   It's like people are forgetting that a flat out shitty WVU offense went up and down the field last week.

Edited October 9, 2019 by Skipper

[texifornia 57101]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Omenihu is in a different league than Graham.  Literally. He's playing well on Sundays now.  Graham flashes here and there but overall hasn't shown to be anything but average to date. Same with Roach.   Coburn is slightly a step up from Nelson (he will be much better with time) but he's only playing so many snaps her game.  And the other young DT's will also be very good with time but they aren't there yet.  But Omenihu was Big 12 DL of the year last year.  We don't have anyone playing close to that level.  I'm not willing to say any unit on D is better overall than last year.  They sure as hell haven't proven it.   And it's not that high of a bar.  

I'm not saying the D can't compete and play a great game on Saturday and force turnovers and otherwise slow the Sooners down some. I fully think the potential is there.  But we haven't seen it yet.   It's like people are forgetting that a flat out shitty WVU offense went up and down the field last week.

Ok Roach is way better than Hagar. Dude was good for 4-5 utterly brainless penalties/blown assignments/what-have-you a game, in between getting manhandled by any decent OT he was across from.

[texifornia 57101]

19 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Until this team and it’s staff show a blood in water pipe hitting mentality my confidence will always be lukewarm. This just get the W and let up everyone is friends after shit doesn’t cut it. Every team lined up against Texas wanting to main injury and win by 100.  We don’t.  Our guys may be tougher but the 4th qtr when it’s time to fuck OUs mom and sister they choose to go home and get a good nights rest before church.  That is the deciding factor. Everyone hates us. We need to let hate in heart. It’s good for the soul 

I mean, we beat the fuck out of two teams that beat us last year (even if they've declined a bit), in one weathering two asinine blown punts, and in the other basically turning the whole last ten minutes of their own Homecoming into garbage time.

[DanTheHorn 4966]

11 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

I think we can play with intensity and a chip on our shoulder and still lose this game by double digits because of our current DB situation. Dline has play out of this world to make up for the inexperience on the backend. It would be nice to get freshman year Malcolm Roach in this game and another interception from Dele and/or Ossai. 

If we are punching OU in the mouth that means we are stopping the run and we are rushing Hurts throws. Receivers have not always been wide open against our secondary. We have been there on many big plays and the throws against us have been just that good even against the youngsters. Bad throws we can handle and I think they will come with pressure. Now I could give you bad play and lots of YAC. I put that under unforced errors if our tackling sucks.

[pearlandhorn 3274]

After watching the press conference from Riley and Hurtz, their entire demeanor bleeds of "We're untouchable because we're OU."  Mirrors so much of FUPM in his last few years.  Players going in expecting everyone to fall over for them.  Kinda nauseating. 

[wood 11267]

1 hour ago, DanTheHorn said:

Accurately predicting who is going to win this game rarely happens. Especially this time, I feel it is all bluster and hot air on either side if they do. The teams are to closely matched and there are a ton of factors that will decide how this game goes outside of X and O's and talent. In 2005 one just knew Texas was going to win and that is the only year this century there was no doubt.

We will not know how it is going to go until we find out the following:

1) Who comes out with the higher sense of urgency?

2) Is their in obvious team that is coming out with a much bigger chip on their shoulder and hitting the other harder in the mouth?

3) Who wants it more on that day?

4) Are there unforced errors that just change the whole game?

Both teams have staffs that can put  together a game plan and make the adjustments that can win. Both teams have the talent and pressure to win. My gut tells me with a great deal of certainty that we are going to win. I have not felt this way since 2009 but it is just a feeling. Logically, I just need to sit back and watch as the game starts getting settled on the field. If 1, 2 and 3 are on the side of Texas all we have to do is avoid #4 and we come away with a victory.

Yep. LMAO at all the splitting hairs over stats ... before TX - ou.

[El Squared 1813]

13 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

After watching the press conference from Riley and Hurtz, their entire demeanor bleeds of "We're untouchable because we're OU."  Mirrors so much of FUPM in his last few years.  Players going in expecting everyone to fall over for them.  Kinda nauseating. 

If indeed its faux ousux confidence , it will be exposed and they will be crushed like last year, let's hope.

[El Squared 1813]

13 minutes ago, wood said:

Yep. LMAO at all the splitting hairs over stats ... before TX - ou.

Yes the game actually matters, unless its sec/sec/sec.

Then it's the rationalizations created by Disney/sec for The Committee, that matter.

Edited October 9, 2019 by El Squared

[Machinator 32099]

 

[texifornia 57101]

Just now, Machinator said:

 

Whoa, how often does that happen midseason?

[Eggo 3994]

2 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Whoa, how often does that happen midseason?

Apparently once every 2.25 years under Herman. 

[RollLeft 5045]

6 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

Damn, Tommy has been pushing away from the table and hitting the weights a bit.  Good for him.  

[Bruh Man 3160]

From supposedly bashing UT to recruits a few years ago (not sure if true) to senior captain. 

[pearlandhorn 3274]

4 minutes ago, RollLeft said:

Damn, Tommy has been pushing away from the table and hitting the weights a bit.  Good for him.  

Just thought the same thing.  McKnight been working with Herman in the weight room.

[Sejjr 3246]

Who knew G2 and Tito's could get you so jacked? 

[Eggo 3994]

The days of old men, Red Bull fiends, and GQ pretty boys staring across the field are over. A lot of jacked coaches in this conferences now. Herman needed to adapt. 

[Gravy Train 974]

33 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

After watching the press conference from Riley and Hurtz, their entire demeanor bleeds of "We're untouchable because we're OU."  Mirrors so much of FUPM in his last few years.  Players going in expecting everyone to fall over for them.  Kinda nauseating. 

Ironically, that same issue plagued Saban and Hurts' in their few losses.  

Just showing up, looking big and mean and taking the scoreboard lead on the first few possessions was enough for some of their competition.  

[XYZ 2154]

35 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

After watching the press conference from Riley and Hurtz, their entire demeanor bleeds of "We're untouchable because we're OU."  Mirrors so much of FUPM in his last few years.  Players going in expecting everyone to fall over for them.  Kinda nauseating. 

Excellent.

[Ghost of Shag 2615]

Stop the run and we win.

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

7 minutes ago, Sejjr said:

Who knew G2 and Tito's could get you so jacked? 

It usually doesn't. The trick is to simultaneously do lines of coke off a stripper's chest.

[gmr548 16616]

I thought about including Omenihu in my post above, because I agree he would be one of the best three on the line this year. But, Graham has been solid and Coburn and Roach are so much better than Nelson and Hager that I actually wouldn't say he's been "GREATLY missed". To the contrary, I think our D Line has been better overall this year.  

He is greatly missed in passing situations. He had nine sacks last year, playing almost exclusively as a 4i. The DL as a unit will not get to nine sacks this year - they're currently at one (Coburn vs Rice). In fact, as an NFL rotation player, Charles has as many sacks this year as the entire Texas DL.

The total lack of a pass rush is part of why the Texas defense is so bad on third down. What kinds of defenses consistently fail to get off the field on third down? Bad ones. So yes, he is missed.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Reynolds Woodcock 4801]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

He is greatly missed in passing situations. He had nine sacks last year, playing almost exclusively as a 4i. The DL as a unit will not get to nine sacks this year - they're currently at one (Coburn vs Rice). In fact, as an NFL rotation player, Charles has as many sacks this year as the entire Texas DL.

The total lack of a pass rush is part of why the Texas defense is so bad on third down. What kinds of defenses consistently fail to get off the field on third down? Bad ones. So yes, he is missed.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Fair point

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Modessit 5603]

It's going to come down to offensive strategy by us. Last year we let our balls hang in the first game and roared out to a big lead. The defensive collapse at the end sucked but we had built a big enough lead that we could still win it. The rematch was something else entirely. We looked hesitant and calculating and we let them dictate the game. In the end we couldn't get enough going to close the gap.

We need to be balls to the wall on every snap offensively. We know our defense is going to give up points so we need to have 100 pts as our goal no matter what. And again in the rematch.

[Hagbard Celine 10923]

3 hours ago, Skipper said:

I hate to agree with the Sooner on this thread but I also wholeheartedly disagree our defense to date this year is better than last.  They may be comparable by the end of the year but certainly not yet.  I see GJ, Davis and Boyd mentioned but I would say Omenihu is GREATLY missed.  He played really well both games last year against an elite OL.  

two teams have absolutely torched us over the top.  laid waste to our secondary.  how anyone can say we are better than last year at this point i don't understand.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

3 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Until this team and it’s staff show a blood in water pipe hitting mentality my confidence will always be lukewarm. This just get the W and let up everyone is friends after shit doesn’t cut it. Every team lined up against Texas wanting to main injury and win by 100.  We don’t.  Our guys may be tougher but the 4th qtr when it’s time to fuck OUs mom and sister they choose to go home and get a good nights rest before church.  That is the deciding factor. Everyone hates us. We need to let hate in heart. It’s good for the soul 

who the fuck is this guy?

Run #8, buddy.

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, Modessit said:

The rematch was something else entirely. We looked hesitant and calculating and we let them dictate the game. In the end we couldn't get enough going to close the gap.

Yeah, it’s kind of puzzling how Texas was somewhat flat at the conference championship game. I mean, Herman seems to always get the team ready for big games, and he certainly got the team ready for the two OU games at the cotton bowl, but not that one.

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

7 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

how anyone can say we are better than last year at this point i don't understand.

We didn't lose to Maryland. So there's that.

[Nicole44 22078]

We can only win if we control TOP. I think Sam is just as good as Jalen. JMO. I’m not as smart (if at all) as most of you on this thread, football-wise. 

[XYZ 2154]

Pass defense worse than last year. O-line better. Special teams “special-er”

[Hagbard Celine 10923]

2 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

We can only win if we control TOP. I think Sam is just as good as Jalen. JMO. I’m not as smart (if at all) as most of you on this thread, football-wise. 

yipp.  he who holds the ball is not holding the bag.

[staboner 4987]

1 hour ago, Modessit said:

It's going to come down to offensive strategy by us. Last year we let our balls hang in the first game and roared out to a big lead. The defensive collapse at the end sucked but we had built a big enough lead that we could still win it. The rematch was something else entirely. We looked hesitant and calculating and we let them dictate the game. In the end we couldn't get enough going to close the gap.

We need to be balls to the wall on every snap offensively. We know our defense is going to give up points so we need to have 100 pts as our goal no matter what. And again in the rematch.

agreed + not fucking up on offense. our offense this year is more prone to bonehead fuckups than any UT offense I have seen in many years. we should be dropping 60 a game and instead are at 40ish. need some rhythm and cohesion from play calling to QB to manifest. it felt like it really did last RRS so I have hope

[texifornia 57101]

12 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

two teams have absolutely torched us over the top.  laid waste to our secondary.  how anyone can say we are better than last year at this point i don't understand.

LSU and who? WVU?

[LTtxfan 49356]

8 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

We can only win if we control TOP. I think Sam is just as good as Jalen. JMO. I’m not as smart (if at all) as most of you on this thread, football-wise. 

 

Yeah -- Controlling TOP is a winning plan!!

[XYZ 2154]

If the Texas offense was able to move the ball and score points and be clutch in the second half against LSU, they can certainly do it against OU.