turkey/syria/kurdistan dustup or heavy action

[Shady Ray 1,633]

2 hours ago, Goredho said:

Yeah, the Middle East is a bunch of imaginary lines drawn on the map by Britain after WWI and the fall of the Ottoman Empire with no real consideration for the different groups living within them.  “A Peace to End All Peace” is a great book that explains it all very well.  I am sure Turkey’s claims go back to the pre-WWI Ottoman Empire.

Interestingly, the period of British occupation afterwards featured insurrection and terroristic attacks just like all the shit we’ve seen in the region recently.  The British finally said fuck it and bailed, much like we are now.  And I’m sure 80-100 years in the future someone else will be dealing with the same shit with no natural order to the region having been established.

I stated elsewhere, I don’t mind the strategy of trying to end our entanglement in the ME.  That’s a noble fucking goal.  But the execution needs to be thoughtful and controlled to ensure we are not creating much bigger problems for ourselves down the road.  It feels like we are just bailing.

 

To me, this is the most frustrating part of this. The writing has been on the wall for quite some time for the Kurds. We simply cannot support them and (even nominally) ally with Turkey. And Turkey has a much,  much better hand to play geopolitically across the board.

Ultimately, we were going to have to leave. They knew that. We knew that. Erdogan knew that. Assad knew that. The mullahs knew that. And Putin knew that.

And all of the above knew that eventually, the SDF would have to reconcile with Assad lest they be destroyed by the Turks. For over a year now (at least), those were the only two outcomes and everyone knew it.

But optically, this was ridiculously short sighted. It should have been wound down in a much more orderly fashion.

 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

3 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The Syrian Kurds have partnered with Assad and Putin. Assad gets control of the territory in exchange for military support. Trump and Erdogan just got played by Putin.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-erdogan-just-got-played-vladimir-putin-says-terrorism-expert-michael-smith-1465008?amp=1

I assure you that Erdogan and Putin have been on the same page on this development for a very long time. 

This is a dog and pony show between those two.

Turkey has no internal political appetite for war with Assad, and they don't want it at the upper echelons of the TAF or Turkish Govt. They want the Kurds cleared out the 30 km "buffer zone" along the Turkish/Syrian border, but the Turks don't give a shit if the SAA re-enters NE Syria.

Erdogan gets major political points if he tosses the Kurds back, shows some strength, and has little to no casualties amongst Turkish troops. He has that now. 

Turkey has no desire to occupy NE Syria and defend against guerrilla warfare. Politically, that is 100% suicide for Erdogan. This is choreographed. 

[Schulz2.0 28,957]

9 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

I assure you that Erdogan and Putin have been on the same page on this development for a very long time. 

This is a dog and pony show between those two.

Turkey has no internal political appetite for war with Assad, and they don't want it at the upper echelons of the TAF or Turkish Govt. They want the Kurds cleared out the 30 km "buffer zone" along the Turkish/Syrian border, but the Turks don't give a shit if the SAA re-enters NE Syria.

Erdogan gets major political points if he tosses the Kurds back, shows some strength, and has little to no casualties amongst Turkish troops. He has that now. 

Turkey has no desire to occupy NE Syria and defend against guerrilla warfare. Politically, that is 100% suicide for Erdogan. This is choreographed. 

But he’s not pushing the Kurds out. Turkey is also now looking at sanctions on top of their economy being shit which is actually costing Erdogan and his party politically.

[Shady Ray 1,633]

Sure he has. The SDF has fallen back from the border, and that's what matters.  

And now, it doesn't matter what they do now with respect to their location. They are both protected and restricted by Russia, and ultimately, that is all the same in Erdogan's book.

These sanctions are pure political optics, along the same lines of what we did to the Turks after Cyprus in the early 70s. They will be for public consumption and nothing more.

When the dust settles, what we have now is exactly the same scenario as pre-Syrian Civil War. Syria will be a client state of Russia. And Turkey will be a grudging member of NATO.

And ultimately, Turkey has a hell of a hand to play when it comes to European energy strategy, European immigration strategy, NATO, Mediterranean geopolitics, and on and on.

I don't know if it has been posted here already, but just look at how "sanctions hawk" Lindsey Graham was speaking about the Kurds behind closed doors a few days ago when a prank caller got his idiot ass to blab:

Lindsey Graham dishes on Trump in hoax calls with Russians

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/10/lindsey-graham-trump-hoax-call-043991

We ain't gonna do fuck all.

Edit: Correcting myself, this was in August, but my point remains. Lindsey was railing about sanctions and denying the Kurdish threat to Turkey only to turn around and say the exact opposite when he thought he was in the clear. We know this situation is complicated and we aren't going to do shit when push comes to shove.

Edited October 14, 2019 by Shady Ray

[Captainant 27,677]

23 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The Syrian Kurds have partnered with Assad and Putin. Assad gets control of the territory in exchange for military support. Trump and Erdogan just got played by Putin.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-erdogan-just-got-played-vladimir-putin-says-terrorism-expert-michael-smith-1465008?amp=1

mUh ClOaK rOoM iN mUh DaIlY tExAn [/armybrat][/immortal][/emaw]

Careful guys, you're not allowed to mention ANYTHING that might remotely tie back to a political decision or else the snowflakes will get their panties in a twist.

edit: didn't know formermav was a snowflake

edit 2: I DID know that iconoclast is a snowflake

Edited October 15, 2019 by Captainant

[formermav43 4,606]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

mUh ClOaK rOoM iN mUh DaIlY tExAn [/armybrat][/immortal][/emaw]

Careful guys, you're not allowed to mention ANYTHING that might remotely tie back to a political decision or else the snowflakes will get their panties in a twist.

edit: didn't know formermav was a snowflake

I wouldn’t say I’m one (nor have I ever used that term). But I prefer to keep politics in, you know, the politics forum as much as possible. There is a reason we have separate subforums, after all. You crying about things staying topical-especially just randomly throwing a bomb like that for no good reason-is just trolling. That’s always been negworthy.

[Captainant 27,677]

1 minute ago, formermav43 said:

I wouldn’t say I’m one (nor have I ever used that term). But I prefer to keep politics in, you know, the politics forum as much as possible. There is a reason we have separate subforums, after all. You crying about things staying topical-especially just randomly throwing a bomb like that for no good reason-is just trolling. That’s always been negworthy.

Eh, it's moreso that those people specifically have been bitching and caterwauling that *gasp* politics are being mentioned in a thread about massive ongoing geo-POLITICAL betrayal. It's intentionally distorting the facts to ignore the players involved and what their intentions/goals are in their decision making process.

[formermav43 4,606]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Eh, it's moreso that those people specifically have been bitching and caterwauling that *gasp* politics are being mentioned in a thread about massive ongoing geo-POLITICAL betrayal. It's intentionally distorting the facts to ignore the players involved and what their intentions/goals are in their decision making process.

Yeah, but there’s a thread(s) for that. Some bleeding in of politics is inevitable, sure. But I think most people would prefer a thread like this in Daily Texan stick as much as possible to the news of what is happening and leave the commentary as much as possible to cloak room. We do more or less a good job of that on news of shootings vs a gun control thread on CR, just for one example.

That’s regardless of political opinion as far as I’m concerned. I’ve reacted the same way to those on the other side in Daily Texan before, for what it’s worth.

[Goredho 17,406]

1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

To me, this is the most frustrating part of this. The writing has been on the wall for quite some time for the Kurds. We simply cannot support them and (even nominally) ally with Turkey. And Turkey has a much,  much better hand to play geopolitically across the board.

Ultimately, we were going to have to leave. They knew that. We knew that. Erdogan knew that. Assad knew that. The mullahs knew that. And Putin knew that.

And all of the above knew that eventually, the SDF would have to reconcile with Assad lest they be destroyed by the Turks. For over a year now (at least), those were the only two outcomes and everyone knew it.

But optically, this was ridiculously short sighted. It should have been wound down in a much more orderly fashion.

 

I agree with most of your post, but I don't think this is just optics.  Kurds who we enlisted to fight for our cause against ISIS are dying.  They have every right to feel betrayed by America, and a better planned extrication could have prevented that.

[Captainant 27,677]

8 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I agree with most of your post, but I don't think this is just optics.  Kurds who we enlisted to fight for our cause against ISIS are dying.  They have every right to feel betrayed by America, and a better planned extrication could have prevented that.

FTFY. trump's decision came completely out of nowhere and was a surprise to our military leadership and the Kurds leadership. They don't have to feel betrayed, they WERE betrayed. Leaders from the Syrian Democratic Forces are being slaughtered, and the women who choose to fight are being raped and stoned to death. Genuine warcrimes are happening to the people who only two years ago were receiving arms and military aid from us, and it's happening because the US unilaterally decided to peace out.

Oh and as an added bonus, US special forces are in the "splash zone" for all of the bombing as a result of the complete lack of planning and coordination leading up to this clusterfuck.

And the result is that the US has lost its only bit of leverage in the region and we have signaled to our allies that being our ally means nothing to us, if we can sell you out for some meager short-term benefit.

[Shady Ray 1,633]

19 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I agree with most of your post, but I don't think this is just optics.  Kurds who we enlisted to fight for our cause against ISIS are dying.  They have every right to feel betrayed by America, and a better planned extrication could have prevented that.

Oh, I agree that they have every right to feel betrayed. Absolutely.

But it is worth pointing out that they didn't enlist to fight our cause. Their choices were to fight to save their own lives from ISIS and we supported them in that effort as part of a mutually beneficial relationship and - as we typically do - we sold them out after they were no longer of use to us. Same as we have done half a dozen times over the past decades by presidents from both parties. It may suck, but it has long been US policy to do that.

Doesn't make it right, but at some point the writing was on the wall and they should have acted in their own self interest, which always was reconciliation with Assad, particularly when Trump first started showing his intention during the first two false-starts that he pulled re SDF.

What were they going to do otherwise? Thrive as a relatively weak landlocked country, surrounded by very powerful enemies, all the while unable to exploit the natural resources underneath them due to the fact they have no way to get it out of the desert? Did they think that we were going to treat them as another Israel and give arm and leg to support their viability when their biggest enemy is, for better or worse, the guardian of the entire soft underbelly of NATO and the single biggest geopolitical check on Russian naval power in the Med outside of our own Navy?

Again, I am not disagreeing with you at all... just trying to work through what other options beyond us just camping out in the shithole that is NE Syria for the foreseeable future.

Edited October 14, 2019 by Shady Ray

[Captainant 27,677]

5 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Oh, I agree that they have every right to feel betrayed. Absolutely.

But it is worth pointing out that they didn't enlist to fight our cause. Their choices were to fight to save their own lives from ISIS and we supported them in that effort as part of a mutually beneficial relationship and - as we typically do - we sold them out after they were no longer of use to us. Same as we have done half a dozen times over the past decades by presidents from both parties. It may suck, but it has long been US policy to do that.

Doesn't make it right, but at some point the writing was on the wall and they should have acted in their own self interest, which always was reconciliation with Assad, particularly when Trump first started showing his intention during the first two false-starts that he pulled re SDF.

What were they going to do otherwise? Thrive as a relatively weak landlocked country, surrounded by very powerful enemies, all the while unable to exploit the natural resources underneath them due to the fact they have no way to get it out of the desert? Did they think that we were going to treat them as another Israel and give arm and leg to support their viability when their biggest enemy is, for better or worse, the guardian of the entire soft underbelly of NATO and the single biggest geopolitical check on Russian naval power in the Med outside of our own Navy?

Again, I am not disagreeing with you at all... just trying to work through what other options beyond us just camping out in the shithole that is NE Syria for the foreseeable future.

It's not invalid or wrong to have the objective of extricating yourself from a region. It IS wrong to do a heel-turn on policy, subverting your own generals and military planning and putting service members unnecessarily at risk..

On your point of "oh well they should have known they'd get fucked over"... Are you really arguing that they should ignore the official channels of communication from the US government, which up until now have been faithful and accurate? Because if that's the case, nobody should be listening to what the US says, and nobody should take our nation's word as bond - because we just demonstrated that it isn't.

The options to get out are to FUCKING PLAN and not pull the rug out from under the people who have been fighting our fight against ISIS for us. This IS the better option than the US sending thousands of troops into the region, the Kurdish people were in harm's way - not ours. And trump's actions just burned that card for the foreseeable future. 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

It's not invalid or wrong to have the objective of extricating yourself from a region. It IS wrong to do a heel-turn on policy, subverting your own generals and military planning and putting service members unnecessarily at risk..

On your point of "oh well they should have known they'd get fucked over"... Are you really arguing that they should ignore the official channels of communication from the US government, which up until now have been faithful and accurate? Because if that's the case, nobody should be listening to what the US says, and nobody should take our nation's word as bond - because we just demonstrated that it isn't.

The options to get out are to FUCKING PLAN and not pull the rug out from under the people who have been fighting our fight against ISIS for us. This IS the better option than the US sending thousands of troops into the region, the Kurdish people were in harm's way - not ours. And trump's actions just burned that card for the foreseeable future. 

I agree. And I am not saying "oh, it's ok because they should have known better."

What I am pointing out that the Kurds should never rely on the U.S., regardless of who is in power and they should have learned that after having been fucked over by Ford, Reagan, Bush the Elder, Clinton, Bush the Younger, and now in an exponentially worse and more dramatic fashion by Trump. We have treated them like shit and betrayed them for the same reason every time...and that is that their desire for independence/geopolitical importance simply does not outweigh the larger geopolitical realities surrounding them.

And I am pointing out is that we have an atrocious record when it comes to honoring that which has been communicated via "official channels from the US Government" when it comes to the Kurds. 

Because, yes, when it comes to the Kurds, unfortunately, our word has never meant shit. 

 

[Brisketexan 105,151]

1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

But it is worth pointing out that they didn't enlist to fight our cause. Their choices were to fight to save their own lives from ISIS and we supported them in that effort as part of a mutually beneficial relationship and - as we typically do - we sold them out after they were no longer of use to us. Same as we have done half a dozen times over the past decades by presidents from both parties. It may suck, but it has long been US policy to do that.

Doesn't make it right, but at some point the writing was on the wall and they should have acted in their own self interest, which always was reconciliation with Assad, particularly when Trump first started showing his intention during the first two false-starts that he pulled re SDF.

1) sure, but they were still an ally.  We didn't have to fuck them over completely.

1) they WERE negotiating reconciliation with Assad.  They had some measure of leverage, and were working to negotiate the best terms possible.

Until, that is, we yanked the rug out from under them with no forethought, no warning, and no purpose.  Seriously, if we indeed wanted to pull our small contingent of troops out of there, all we had to do was inform the Kurdish leadership that we'd be announcing a pullout on X date (in the near future), to be effective on Y date (sometime after X).  They would have known that the clock was running on their negotiations, and to make their deal before X date.  And shit, if we were smart, we even help broker some commitments from the Kurds vis-a-vis Turkey (they won't support violence on Turkish soil, stuff like that).  Once they had a deal in place, we do a peaceful withdrawal, and while I'm sure the world doesn't go on perfectly after that, it goes a helluva lot better than this shitshow.

There are ways to do this.  The way we did so maximized the chances of bloodshed and chaos.  For no fucking good reason.  It's maddening.

[Goredho 17,406]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

FTFY. trump's decision came completely out of nowhere and was a surprise to our military leadership and the Kurds leadership. They don't have to feel betrayed, they WERE betrayed. Leaders from the Syrian Democratic Forces are being slaughtered, and the women who choose to fight are being raped and stoned to death. Genuine warcrimes are happening to the people who only two years ago were receiving arms and military aid from us, and it's happening because the US unilaterally decided to peace out.

Oh and as an added bonus, US special forces are in the "splash zone" for all of the bombing as a result of the complete lack of planning and coordination leading up to this clusterfuck.

And the result is that the US has lost its only bit of leverage in the region and we have signaled to our allies that being our ally means nothing to us, if we can sell you out for some meager short-term benefit.

 

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

It's not invalid or wrong to have the objective of extricating yourself from a region. It IS wrong to do a heel-turn on policy, subverting your own generals and military planning and putting service members unnecessarily at risk..

On your point of "oh well they should have known they'd get fucked over"... Are you really arguing that they should ignore the official channels of communication from the US government, which up until now have been faithful and accurate? Because if that's the case, nobody should be listening to what the US says, and nobody should take our nation's word as bond - because we just demonstrated that it isn't.

The options to get out are to FUCKING PLAN and not pull the rug out from under the people who have been fighting our fight against ISIS for us. This IS the better option than the US sending thousands of troops into the region, the Kurdish people were in harm's way - not ours. And trump's actions just burned that card for the foreseeable future. 

You are 100% correct.

[Shady Ray 1,633]

1) sure, but they were still an ally.  We didn't have to fuck them over completely.
1) they WERE negotiating reconciliation with Assad.  They had some measure of leverage, and were working to negotiate the best terms possible.
Until, that is, we yanked the rug out from under them with no forethought, no warning, and no purpose.  Seriously, if we indeed wanted to pull our small contingent of troops out of there, all we had to do was inform the Kurdish leadership that we'd be announcing a pullout on X date (in the near future), to be effective on Y date (sometime after X).  They would have known that the clock was running on their negotiations, and to make their deal before X date.  And shit, if we were smart, we even help broker some commitments from the Kurds vis-a-vis Turkey (they won't support violence on Turkish soil, stuff like that).  Once they had a deal in place, we do a peaceful withdrawal, and while I'm sure the world doesn't go on perfectly after that, it goes a helluva lot better than this shitshow.
There are ways to do this.  The way we did so maximized the chances of bloodshed and chaos.  For no fucking good reason.  It's maddening.

Absolutely agreed. The way this went down was entirely the wrong way. Of that there is no doubt.

I am curious if there is some strategy relating to Al-Tanf. Surely we will remain there, I would think.

[El Diablo 4,232]

Wasn't there going to be a vacuum regardless of how/when we ejected? Were any of the players actually going to honor anything they might have agreed to in advance of a planned ejection?

[Brisketexan 105,151]

1 hour ago, El Diablo said:

Wasn't there going to be a vacuum regardless of how/when we ejected? Were any of the players actually going to honor anything they might have agreed to in advance of a planned ejection?

If you make agreements conditional on carrots/sticks that we can actually deliver on, then that leverage helps induce folks to GENERALLY stick with the plan.    Negotiating diplomatic solutions that actually have some staying power takes a deft hand, strategic thinking, and a long-term plan and vision.  So, like, nothing we've brought to the table as of late.

[El Diablo 4,232]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If you make agreements conditional on carrots/sticks that we can actually deliver on, then that leverage helps induce folks to GENERALLY stick with the plan.    Negotiating diplomatic solutions that actually have some staying power takes a deft hand, strategic thinking, and a long-term plan and vision.  So, like, nothing we've brought to the table as of late.

And what stick would that be, military force? When all is said and done that's the only leverage that is going to carry any weight. And what exactly is the goal then? Maintaining good relations with the Kurds? Erdogan? Assad? Keeping Putin out of the region? If someone could enumerate a clear goal/purpose then I'd listen. Just my opinion but I think we're too "adventurous" as it is. What did the French suffer for leaving 'Nam? Some rich folks lost their shit. 

[staboner 4,974]

On 10/11/2019 at 2:04 AM, Trey3216 said:

Fake market forces are the only thing keeping much of the alternative energy industry alive right now.  True market forces would have us investing in nuclear power plants, and running natty pipelines into Boston, New York and New Jersey.  But those three bastions of market making would rather pay 4x the natural gas prices to have it shipped from Europe on a diesel guzzling boat rather than dig underground and have it piped in.  

 

The dumbest thing that has happened in the last 15 years was backing Erdogan on that complete farce of a coups several years back.  Want to keep Turkey in check with NATO? Feed Erdogan to the wolves.   

fake isn't a good word on my part. I am referring to the glut of fat money being used speculatively in the market for commodities. Its not constructive at all, thus my use of the word fake

re: energy. I was all on-board with nuclear as well. However, in recent times I get a bit more worried again simply because if terrorism. A nuke facility is just a fucking bomb sitting there and it can be set of via a terrorist attack, rogue cyber attack from a nation state or a shooting war. And while yes renewables need help the hope is some day they won't obviously

but the main fucking point that we agree on is not using ME oil. It should be the easiest goddamn thing to do however there is tons of other luggage in there, like how Saudi trades in $USD and other shit that if it fell or changed, the US would be hit with some serious pain. 

 

[Hagbard Celine 10,867]

14 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Aren't you a 9/11 truther?

And aren't you an ignorant slut?

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.  Attack someone's position because your brain is preprogrammed to be unable to risk cognitive dissonance when confronted with scientific evidence above the signatures of 3000 architects and engineers with Ph.Ds from Harvard, Berkeley, etc.  Thanks for the entre.

+++

A solid majority of Americans who watch the Sept. 11, 2001, collapse of World Trade Center Building 7 on video don’t buy the government’s story that fires brought it down, according to a new survey conducted by YouGov.  Underscoring the absence of media coverage of Building 7, only 64% of participants said they were aware of a third skyscraper collapsing on 9/11 — and just 14% could name the building.

After viewing video footage of the controversial building collapse from four different angles, 52% of Americans who participated in the survey are either sure or suspect it was caused by a controlled demolition, compared to 21% who are sure or suspect it was caused by ordinary fires. A sizable 27% say they don’t know.

yougov slides: https://www.ae911truth.org/images/PDFs/Slides-for-AE911Truth-WTC7-202-8232019.pdf

On the topic of this thread, we've abandoned the Kurds 8 times (link posted upthread) and we are tied to Turkey by Nato Article 5.  Why don't you sort that out for us.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,512]

The yougov survey is bs. It was commissioned by a group that wanted it those results so they picked the video, questions, etc.

 

[Hagbard Celine 10,867]

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

FTFY. trump's decision came completely out of nowhere and was a surprise to our military leadership and the Kurds leadership. They don't have to feel betrayed, they WERE betrayed. Leaders from the Syrian Democratic Forces are being slaughtered, and the women who choose to fight are being raped and stoned to death. Genuine warcrimes are happening to the people who only two years ago were receiving arms and military aid from us, and it's happening because the US unilaterally decided to peace out.

Oh and as an added bonus, US special forces are in the "splash zone" for all of the bombing as a result of the complete lack of planning and coordination leading up to this clusterfuck.

And the result is that the US has lost its only bit of leverage in the region and we have signaled to our allies that being our ally means nothing to us, if we can sell you out for some meager short-term benefit.

re: out of nowhere, i blame the boys for not xkeyscoring erdogan up the ass.  there's a reason we spend a trillion dollars on the toys, this is a good use case.

did the chiefs slow-pedal this if they got early whispers about it?  who knows, but if they had "their" president (hillary) they would made damn well sure erdogan did not get to dictate terms on the big board, the problem is this: since the demise of southern yemen in 1991 the russian fleet remains bottled up in murmansk and vladivostok.

vlad has the crimea now.  the point about erdogan holding all the cards is correct x1000.   push erdogan out of nato, he's vlad's boy, and the russians are cruising around the med at will.

so the idea about short-term benefit has to be considered in context of the big board.

stafford dropping dimes at lambeau anyone doesn't have it on.

[Hagbard Celine 10,867]

4 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

their biggest enemy is, for better or worse, the guardian of the entire soft underbelly of NATO and the single biggest geopolitical check on Russian naval power in the Med outside of our own Navy?

yes = and credit for this first had not read it yet

[Hagbard Celine 10,867]

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's not invalid or wrong to have the objective of extricating yourself from a region. It IS wrong to do a heel-turn on policy, subverting your own generals and military planning and putting service members unnecessarily at risk..

On your point of "oh well they should have known they'd get fucked over"... Are you really arguing that they should ignore the official channels of communication from the US government, which up until now have been faithful and accurate? Because if that's the case, nobody should be listening to what the US says, and nobody should take our nation's word as bond - because we just demonstrated that it isn't.

The options to get out are to FUCKING PLAN and not pull the rug out from under the people who have been fighting our fight against ISIS for us. This IS the better option than the US sending thousands of troops into the region, the Kurdish people were in harm's way - not ours. And trump's actions just burned that card for the foreseeable future. 

the kurd's problem is that they don't have an article 5.

[Hagbard Celine 10,867]

26 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The yougov survey is bs. It was commissioned by a group that wanted it those results so they picked the video, questions, etc.

 

ok, cool.  hook 'em.  pick a video that shows building 7 collapsed due to fires.

[Captainant 27,677]

Jesus fuck, keep your 9/11 truther in a different thread lol.

There's another interesting issue at hand here, being that the US currently is holding nuclear weapons IN Turkey and we're now starting to threaten them with massive economic sanctions and other non-friendly kind of stuff. The kind of stuff that may push an ally out of NATO and into the arms of Russia. And then we suddenly have nuclear arms inside a nation that doesn't view us in a friendly light.

I hope I don't need to draw yall a picture to help you understand how fucked this situation is heading. And it was all started thanks to our cheeto in chief following his gut instead of literally EVERYONE that cares about US interests abroad. Hooray.

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

I spent three days in Istanbul just after the coup. Love the place, the women were the most beutiful on the planet. I would love to go back and really spend some time, and go see the country and Riviera. Food was fantastic as well.

We should kick them the fuck out of NATO and get out nukes back. I think the desire to keep the base there is a holdover from when it was significant to the Cold War and Russia. Turkey wasn't our ally in 2003 when they wouldn't let us come into Iraq. They're not our ally today. What the fuck are they doing in NATO?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,512]

2 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

ok, cool.  hook 'em.  pick a video that shows building 7 collapsed due to fires.

Ok cool hookem is a weak response. I have no idea why that became some idea of a strong slam.  It wasn’t when Herman’s wife said it and hadn’t gotten better.

[suddenly shaggy 929]

Turkey is a Nato Ally, but Erdogan is a threat to not just the Middle East, but also to Europe. Erdogan facilitated mass migration of refugees into Europe and provoked a crisis. Erdogan then extorted favorable agreements from the EU in exchange for slowing the problem he was facilitating. He is threatening to do even worse if the EU continues to callout his invasion of Syria. He is an Islamist and a thug. 

This is win/win/win for Erdogan, Putin and Assad.

Erdogan gets to rape and kill a bunch of Kurds, while creating a buffer between Kurdish areas in Turkey and Kurdish areas of Turkey. 

Assad gets the Kurds back under his authority and control, minus the buffer. 

Putin gets the Kurds permanently severed from the United States and definitively establishes that no ally should trust that the United States will not condemn them to rape and murder depending on the arbitrary decisions of the president. 

This is a massive unforced geopolitical loss for the United States. 

Edited October 15, 2019 by suddenly shaggy

[Captainant 27,677]

1 hour ago, suddenly shaggy said:

This is a massive unforced geopolitical loss for the United States. 

Some might even argue that in a sense, this error and many others were in fact forced errors. 

[gecko 1,104]

[Shady Ray 1,633]

 

Quote

 

Syrian Sources Reveal Agreement Terms Between Damascus And SDF: Syrian Army To Enter All Of Eastern Euphrates

Informed Syrian sources confirmed to Muraselon that as a result from yesterday’s meeting between representatives of the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces, the following terms have been agreed upon:

1. The SDF will vow with all its capabilities to preserve the safety and the territorial integrity of the lands of the Syrian Arab Republic, under the flag of the Syrian Arab Republic, and will stand with the Syrian Arab Army against the Turkish threats under the command of President Bashar al-Assad.
    
2. The SDF will allow the entry of the forces of the Syrian Arab Army to seize control of the entire area that lies between Ayn Diwar in the east to Jarablus in the west from three different axes: Tabqa, Manbij, and Hasaka.

With those terms, the Syrian Army will be present in all the territories north and east of the Euphrates in coordination with the local military councils while the area between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn will remain an unstable area of operations until its liberation.

The Syrian Army has already begun entering the villages and towns in Raqqa and Hasaka’s countrysides with the aim of repelling the Turkish aggression in northern Syria.

https://en.muraselon.com/2019/10/syrian-sources-reveal-agreement-terms-between-damascus-and-sdf-syrian-army-to-enter-all-of-eastern-euphrates/

 

 

Syrian govt affiliated media outlining more details of the deal between the SDF and Damascus. 

 

German mid-day news report is also quoting Russia's Defense Ministry as saying that Russian soldiers and Turkish army are coordinating in Manbij.

 

If true, (and there has been plenty of false reports re Manbij these past few hours) it looks like Erdogan may not get his dream of Manbij plus the full buffer zone, but rather just a truncated buffer zone that effectively keeps Turkish territory just outside of mortar range. That will be tough sell to his voting block back home. Really curious how this unfolds over the next 24 hours. 

 

[Brisketexan 105,151]

1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

 

 

Syrian govt affiliated media outlining more details of the deal between the SDF and Damascus. 

 

German mid-day news report is also quoting Russia's Defense Ministry as saying that Russian soldiers and Turkish army are coordinating in Manbij.

 

If true, (and there has been plenty of false reports re Manbij these past few hours) it looks like Erdogan may not get his dream of Manbij plus the full buffer zone, but rather just a truncated buffer zone that effectively keeps Turkish territory just outside of mortar range. That will be tough sell to his voting block back home. Really curious how this unfolds over the next 24 hours. 

 

Thanks for the update, and for your insight into the region.

I still think this is an absolutely pointless clusterfuck, but I appreciate the info and understanding.

[bolverk 29,683]

11 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

We should kick them the fuck out of NATO and get out nukes back. I think the desire to keep the base there is a holdover from when it was significant to the Cold War and Russia. Turkey wasn't our ally in 2003 when they wouldn't let us come into Iraq. They're not our ally today. What the fuck are they doing in NATO?

 

11 hours ago, suddenly shaggy said:

Turkey is a Nato Ally, but Erdogan is a threat to not just the Middle East, but also to Europe. Erdogan facilitated mass migration of refugees into Europe and provoked a crisis. Erdogan then extorted favorable agreements from the EU in exchange for slowing the problem he was facilitating. He is threatening to do even worse if the EU continues to callout his invasion of Syria. He is an Islamist and a thug. 

I'm inclined to think it's worth a discussion over the mid- to long-term but would be really hesitant to do so under duress or in a panic. Maybe consider it once Ukraine and Georgia are finally in the Nato fold.

[Wally Fairway 5,550]

Looks like Russia now controls that region, I'm sure that is what "we" had in mind by leaving so unexpectedly

Quote

Russia has said it will not allow clashes between Turkish and Syrian forces, as Turkey's military offensive in northern Syria continues.

"This would simply be unacceptable... and therefore we will not allow it, of course," said Moscow's special envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev.

The withdrawal of US troops from the region, announced last week, gave Turkey a "green light", critics say.

Russia is a key military ally of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

Mr Lavrentyev, during a visit to the United Arab Emirates, described Turkey's offensive as "unacceptable".

He said Turkish and Syrian officials were in contact to avoid any conflict.

And Russia's defence ministry said its forces, which have been deployed in Syria since 2015, were patrolling along the "line of contact" between Syrian and Turkish forces.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50058859

[bolverk 29,683]

Looks like Russia is the key power broker in that part of the Middle East now. Syria, already, their ally will dampen Kurdish dissent. Turkey, with whom Putin is playing footsie, will go along for the ride. Moreover, Turkey has also had a warming in relations with Iran, who also happen to have at least congenial relations with Putin and also strong outside influence over Iraqi politics.

In the meantime, the West will increasingly lose a moderating influence on Turkey and will have to come to a decision on Turkey's future in Nato, and Russia seems to be building a new alliance in Western Asia and the Middle East: Russia, Turkey, and Iran being the main powers pulling the puppet strings in Syria and Iraq.

From a month ago: 

Quote

 

Turkey will host a trilateral meeting on the Syrian crisis between the presidents of Turkey, Russia and Iran on Wednesday amid significant developments happening on the ground in the seven-year civil war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Ankara on Tuesday, followed by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in the evening, as the leaders meet for the second time since November to discuss the Syrian situation.

Iran and Russia, which support the Syrian government in the crisis, and Turkey, which backs the moderate opposition, have been in close cooperation through a series of talks aimed at finding a solution to the Syrian conflict since last year.

Various so-called "de-escalation zones" were agreed among the three powers in Syria as a result of multiple rounds of talks throughout 2017.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-summit-putin/turkey-russia-iran-agree-steps-to-ease-tensions-in-syrias-idlib-despite-lingering-differences-idUSKBN1W11R7

 

[SquishMitten 10,408]

Cool. So Putin is building an alliance of the world's most evil leaders. That worked out so well for the world last time someone did that. 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

32 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Looks like Russia is the key power broker in that part of the Middle East now. Syria, already, their ally will dampen Kurdish dissent. Turkey, with whom Putin is playing footsie, will go along for the ride. Moreover, Turkey has also had a warming in relations with Iran, who also happen to have at least congenial relations with Putin and also strong outside influence over Iraqi politics.

In the meantime, the West will increasingly lose a moderating influence on Turkey and will have to come to a decision on Turkey's future in Nato, and Russia seems to be building a new alliance in Western Asia and the Middle East: Russia, Turkey, and Iran being the main powers pulling the puppet strings in Syria and Iraq.

From a month ago: 

 

It really is amazing that these three aren't even letting Assad pretend that he is even remotely involved in this shit.

Obviously, he has zero clout here, but they aren't even letting him give the impression to his country that he has any say over his own borders.

Apparently, Bashar's gonna take what he gets and he's gonna like it.

[Eastwood 4,394]

1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

Cool. So Putin is building an alliance of the world's most evil leaders. That worked out so well for the world last time someone did that. 

The coming conflict was set in motion starting with the 2016 election meddling and Cold War 2 has been in full swing since at least the 2008 South Ossetia conflict.

[SquishMitten 10,408]

I don't necessarily disagree, because that's what we'll call it in real time. But I think "Cold War 2" will ultimately go down in the history books as "the early days of WWIII"

[Brisketexan 105,151]

12 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I don't necessarily disagree, because that's what we'll call it in real time. But I think "Cold War 2" will ultimately go down in the history books as "the early days of WWIII"

And you may be right.  And the problem is, the first phase of it's pretty much going like this....

[Hate 20,108]

Maybe if we had used a bold red line many years ago we wouldn't be where we are now.  Or maybe if we had embraced regime change with Syria the way we did with Libya, Iran, and Iraq, Syria wouldn't be in such turmoil.  Maybe we should have a strong military presence in the region because when that happened the region was perfectly stable.  Or maybe we should mettle even more in their elections so we get the guy in charge that we really want and will be our bestie forever. We could arm them and train them and sell them airplanes and be guaranteed that we will be forever allies and all the people in their land will love us.  Or maybe we could get the fuck out and let them sort it out themselves however it happens?  I have absolutely no idea, but I know that we've tried each of the above over the course of the last 60 years or so without much success except GTFO.  Maybe we should let that region be someone else's headache for the next 50 years?  I genuinely have no idea, but I'm ready for some new ideas that aren't just recycled versions of the same bullshit.

[AeroHorn 749]

Here is a good summary of what has happened over the past few years there. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/turkey-peace-spring-changed-dynamics-syria-war-191014165613108.html

 

Spoiler

How Turkey's 'Peace Spring' changed the dynamics of Syria's war

Turkey's military action on Syria will have consequences far beyond the 'safe zone' it is trying to establish.

by Marwan Kabalan

14 Oct 2019

After months of pressuring, lobbying and amassing troops along the border with Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finally succeeded in securing the approval of US President Donald Trump for a military operation in northeast Syria. Operation "Peace Spring" is the third major Turkish military operation inside the country since 2016. The scope and depth of the operation are still unknown, but it is likely to change the dynamics of the Syrian conflict in a major way.

Seizing the moment

Since 2012, Erdogan has been trying to establish a "safe zone" along the section of Turkey's border with Syria that falls to the east of the Euphrates River.

The Syrian opposition succeeded in pushing the forces of the Syrian regime out of the country's northeast in the summer of 2012, allowing the People's Protection Units, known by its Kurdish acronym YPG, to take control. Turkey says the YPG is the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which it classifies as a terrorist organisation. 

Before 2016, Erdogan's plans to intervene militarily in Syria were opposed by both the Obama administration and the Turkish military, which the president did not yet have complete control over. Erdogan, as a result, declined to participate in the US-led war against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS), declared by Obama following the fall of Mosul, in the summer of 2014.

The United States was not, therefore, allowed to use the Incirlik airbase in the south of Turkey in the war against ISIL. It had, instead, to rely on bases further afield, such as al-Udiad in Qatar and Riffa in Bahrain. Meanwhile, the US shunned an offer by Turkey to arm and train Syrian opposition factions to confront ISIL and opted instead to use the YPG as a local proxy against ISIL.

To conceal the Kurdish identity of the US's chosen proxy in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which includes fighters from non-Kurdish groups, was established in 2015. The SDF was trained and armed by the US military.

When Turkey eventually decided to change course and allow the US to use its territories in the fight against ISIL in the summer of 2015, it was too late. By then, Russia had entered the fray on the side of the Syrian regime, changing the dynamics of Syria's conflict completely. This meant Turkey was now participating in a conflict entirely different from the one it was offered a role in a few years earlier. The change in circumstances was demonstrated clearly in November 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near its border with Syria, unleashing a major crisis with Russia.

Securing the borders west of the Euphrates

Having received lip service by its NATO allies for its confrontation with Russia, Turkey found itself stuck between a strong rival - Russia - in the Syrian territories west of the Euphrates and an ally unsympathetic to its needs - the US - in the Syrian territories east of the Euphrates.

The failed military coup in Turkey in July 2016 provided Erdogan with an opportunity to mend fences with Russia and to get out of this strategic trap. Just one month after the attempted coup, during which Russia expressed support for Erdogan, Turkey was allowed to move into northwest Syrian and clear the area from both ISIL and the YPG. The operation, named "Euphrates Shield", paved the way for the establishment of the Astana process, wherein Russia and Turkey tried to reach a modus vivendi in Syria. Iranlater also joined this arrangement.

In February 2018, Russia allowed Turkey to launch yet another operation, this time named "Olive Branch", to expel the YPG from Afrin. Having succeeded in securing the section of its border with Syria to the west of the Euphrates River, Turkey turned its attention to the east following this operation. With the defeat of ISIL in that region looming, Turkey started preparing to fill the vacuum that the planned departure of US forces would inevitably create there. To the dismay of Turkey, however, the US decided to stay.

Focusing on Trump

In January 2018, the State Department, under former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, outlined a plan for a long-term US military presence in Syria. He defined four key objectives for the open-ended US military presence in northeast Syria. They included ensuring a lasting defeat of ISIL and al-Qaeda, creating the right conditions for the return of Syrian refugees, curbing Iranian influence in the region and holding UN-supervised elections aimed at securing a new leadership in Damascus. The latent motive behind this strategy, as Tillerson put it, was that the US "cannot repeat the mistake of 2011, where a premature departure from Iraq allowed al-Qaeda to survive and eventually become ISIS".

Trump was unconcerned. In March 2018, he fired Tillerson and the following month he took almost everyone off guard when he announced the full withdrawal of US troops from Syria. Under pressure from members of his own administration, as well as from regional and European allies, Trump gave the Pentagon and the State Department six months to finish the job against ISIL and pull troops out of Syria.

Turkey took advantage of this schism within the US administration and opened a direct channel with Trump. Hence, by the end of the six month period, Erdogan had called Trump and received assurances that the US would soon be leaving. Trump was quoted as telling Erdogan during their December 2018 phone call on Syria: "It's all yours. We are done."

The withdrawal plan, however, was shelved again and the US and Turkey entered into a lengthy negotiation on the issue that yielded no concrete results for almost a year. 

On Sunday, October 6, another phone call between Erdogan and Trump changed the dynamics again. Trump decided that he would allow Turkey to go ahead with its military operation and establish a "safe zone". Three days later, the Turkish army entered Syria.

New dynamics

Although it is still unclear whether the US is planning to fully withdraw from Syria, or merely give way for Turkey to establish a "safe zone" near its border, the Turkish operation has already transformed the dynamics of the Syrian conflict, resulting in new alignments inside Syria and out. 

The Arab Gulf states - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Kuwait - as well as Egypt and Israel have already voiced their opposition to Turkey's move. Speaking at an emergency Arab League meeting in Cairo on October 12, Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit called Turkey's military operation in northeast Syria an "invasion of an Arab state's land and an aggression on its sovereignty". Saudi Arabia State Minister for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir also condemned the Turkish operation and demanded an immediate end to it.

Over the past year, Riyadh has exerted tremendous efforts to convince Trump to maintain a substantial military presence in northeast Syria to counterbalance both Turkey and Iran. Last November, the Saudis committed $100m to convince the US to remain in Syria. At one point, Riyadh even offered to send troops to patrol the area alongside the US and the YPG. Turkey's "Peace Spring" operation is, therefore, seen as a major blow to Saudi efforts to keep Ankara out of Syria.

Israel has also condemned the Turkish military operation and expressed sympathy with the YPG. "Israel strongly condemns the Turkish invasion of the Kurdish areas in Syria and warns against the ethnic cleansing of the Kurds by Turkey and its proxies," Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote. "Israel is prepared to extend humanitarian assistance to the gallant Kurdish people." 

Israel has always been a champion of Kurdish separatism. The establishment of a greater Kurdistan is seen by Israel and some circles in Saudi Arabia as a means to weaken the major powers in the region, such as Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.

Surprisingly, Turkey's Astana partners, Russia and Iran, have shown more flexibility.

Moscow stated that it understands Turkish security concerns in northern Syria and joined forces with the US to block an EU-drafted statement at the UN Security Council calling upon Turkey to end its military operation.

Iran, too, expressed a similar position. This signals a major shift in the policies of the two countries towards the Turkish incursion. Earlier this year, both Moscow and Tehran had expressed opposition to Ankara's plans to establish a "safe zone" in northern Syria. 

Now, however, Iran is not in a position to alienate Turkey while facing crippling US sanctions. Moscow also relies on Turkey's cooperation to end the conflict in Syria and secure its interests there. In addition, Russia's major concern at the moment is to expel the US from Syria, punish the Kurds for allying themselves with Washington and push them back into the lap of the Syrian regime.

This is exactly what has happened. Having been abandoned by their American patron, the Kurds now have nowhere to go but back to their old ally in Damascus. This is why they struck a deal with the Syrian regime and asked it to deploy its forces to the Turkish border. This constituted a major shift in the alliances shaping Syria's conflict. 

This new arrangement will likely pit the Syrian regime forces against Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition. Will Iran and Russia support the Syrian regime in this fight as they did in Idlib? At this stage, Moscow will likely try to work out an agreement between Turkey and the Syrian regime, revive the 1998 Adana Accord on border security between the two sides and establish a status quo acceptable to all. 

Moscow made similar arrangements in the northwest in Afrin and in the areas affected by Turkey's "Euphrates Shield" operation. Moscow ultimately wants all foreign forces to permanently leave Syria, but it gives securing the departure of the US priority over everything else. Because once Washington gets out, Moscow will be able to decide the fate of Syria on its own, and manipulate the actions of all the other actors involved in the conflict, including Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance. 

 

[GHOSTUSER 361]

I hate Erdogan with a passion. He is an Islamic thug that changed Turkey from a secular country and shit on Ataturk's legacy. Ataturk's banning of hijab and dismantling the caliphate were 2 great victories for Turks that this asshole is trying to change by wanting to revive Ottoman bullshit. Erdogan wrote an op-ed in the WSJ justifying his actions:

Turkey Is Stepping Up Where Others Fail to Act

Syria’s refugee flows, violence and instability have pushed us to the limit of our tolerance.

By 

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Oct. 14, 2019 6:57 pm ET

Turkish civilians wave at an army convoy driving toward Syria, Oct. 9. Photo: bulent kilic/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, no country has felt the pain of the ensuing humanitarian crisis more severely than Turkey. We took in 3.6 million Syrian refugees—more than any other country—and spent $40 billion to offer them education, health care and housing. Our culture of hospitality compelled us to shoulder the burden of hosting millions of war victims with very little help from the international community.

Yet at a certain point, Turkey reached its limit. My administration repeatedly warned that we would be unable to stop refugees from flooding into the West without international financial support. Those warnings fell on deaf ears as governments, eager to avoid responsibility, portrayed as a threat what was intended as a mere statement of fact. 

My administration concluded that the international community wasn’t going to act, so we developed a plan for northern Syria. I shared the plan with world leaders at last month’s United Nations General Assembly. In line with that plan, Turkey last week launched Operation Peace Spring to end the humanitarian crisis and address the violence and instability that are the root causes of irregular migration in our region. Absent an alternative plan to deal with the refugee crisis, the international community should either join our efforts or begin admitting refugees.

As part of Operation Peace Spring, the Turkish military, together with the Syrian National Army, will remove all terrorist elements in northeastern Syria. These militants are preventing Syrian refugees, including some 300,000 Kurds, from returning home. Our mission is simultaneously to combat the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the terrorist organization known as the PKK, along with its Syrian affiliates and Islamic State. Turkey has no argument with any ethnic or religious group. From our perspective, all citizens of the Syrian Arab Republic—who don’t belong to terrorist groups—are equal. In particular, we object to equation of the PKK with the Syrian Kurds.

Likewise, Turkey opposes equation of ISIS, which has murdered thousands of innocent people, with Islam. We will ensure that no ISIS fighters leave northeastern Syria. We are prepared to cooperate with source countries and international organizations on the rehabilitation of foreign terrorist fighters’ spouses and children.

The same countries that lecture Turkey on the virtues of combating ISIS today, failed to stem the influx of foreign terrorist fighters in 2014 and 2015. Perhaps the government of a certain European country, which I won’t name, would like to explain to the world how one of its nationals could board a flight to Istanbul in 2014 with live ammunition in his checked luggage. Likewise, France has blocked weapons sales to Turkey, but why did it ignore our repeated early warnings about imminent terrorist attacks?

Members of the Arab League, which has described Turkey’s operation in northern Syria as an invasion, need to answer some questions. Since they are so unhappy with Turkey’s efforts to reunite Syrian refugees with their ancestral lands, how many war victims have they admitted? How much did they contribute to efforts to end the humanitarian crisis in Syria? Which political initiatives did they support to stop the civil war? The Arab League, whose statements don’t reflect the true views and sentiments of the Arab people, has no legitimacy.

The international community missed its opportunity to prevent the Syrian crisis from pulling an entire region into a maelstrom of instability. Many countries have had to deal with the conflict’s negative side effects, including irregular migration and an uptick in terrorist attacks. Operation Peace Spring represents a second chance to help Turkey end proxy wars in Syria and restore peace and stability to the region. The European Union—and the world—should support what Turkey is trying to do.

Mr. Erdoğan is president of Turkey.

Edited October 15, 2019 by Iconoclast Texan

[DDD Dad 14,339]

3 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

Cool. So Putin is building an alliance of the world's most evil leaders. 

So is Trump.

 

 

 

 

 

I'll show myself out.

[Cacti 191]

18 hours ago, suddenly shaggy said:

This is a massive unforced geopolitical loss for the United States. 

An even bigger loss is just waiting to happen. Despite Trump’s recent acquiescence to a Saudi request for additional U.S. troops, S.A. and her M.E. allies have to be nervous about Trump’s sudden and arbitrary decision to abandon an ally. Even if they trust Trump—and they shouldn’t—the next administration and Congress almost assuredly won’t be as pro Saudi as have past policy makers.

So, this may be a situation where supporting/protecting Saudi Arabia is a bad choice for us, but choosing not to protect them could very well be a worse choice.  S.A. is not capable of protecting themselves, as shown by the unanswered Iranian attacks on their oil facilities. Without protection the Saudis are practically helpless to counter Iranian aggression and intimidation, as well as being vulnerable to regime-destabilization action from Iranian proxies in Yemen, Syria and Iraq.

Since they need protection—and if we were not to provide it—S.A. would undoubtedly seek assistance elsewhere. And there is a regime that is able and would be more than willing to assume the role as paid protector: Russia. Currently Russia and Iran are on friendly terms, mostly because Iran is a large purchaser of Russian arms. But if the incentive is great enough, Putin would abandon an ally just as quick as Trump. And the incentive is money. Lots of money.

Saudi Arabia is a huge market for Soviet arms (potentially larger than Iran) and the price for a permanent, protective mercenary force would be high, giving Russia what they desperately need: new revenue sources that are probably beyond the reach of our sanctions. An added incentive, at least from Putin’s point of view, would be to humiliate the U.S. on the world stage.  

So, what to do? We can continue to protect S.A. until the necessity for oil is nominal (50 more years?), or we can let another power like Russia or China assume the role of protecting the kingdom (assuming they covet such a role), or we can stand down and watch as Iran runs amok in the M.E.   

[Hagbard Celine 10,867]

18 hours ago, Captainant said:

Jesus fuck, keep your 9/11 truther in a different thread lol.

Blame Eddie.  He brought it up.

[Hagbard Celine 10,867]

18 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

I spent three days in Istanbul just after the coup. Love the place, the women were the most beutiful on the planet. I would love to go back and really spend some time, and go see the country and Riviera. Food was fantastic as well.

We should kick them the fuck out of NATO and get out nukes back. I think the desire to keep the base there is a holdover from when it was significant to the Cold War and Russia. Turkey wasn't our ally in 2003 when they wouldn't let us come into Iraq. They're not our ally today. What the fuck are they doing in NATO?

Hottest females by race/country

1. Persia

2. Czech

3. Turk

4. Dutch

5. Swede

[El Diablo 4,232]

9 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

Blame Eddie.  He brought it up.

Eddie? He's a nice guy.