2019 - 2020 Dallas Mavericks: Eastern Bloc > Western Conference

[Post Oak 20256]

Hollingers projections haves us 2 in the west behind LAC.  

I think the LAL are the best team but might not have the best record with Lebron presumably resting a ton

KOC said yesterday they were a threat to the LAL.

Anyway feels good to read and hear

[BallamaticBevo 56]

From the Athletic as @Post Oak said has us at 47-25 and #2 in the West. I'd like the shit out of that. Problem is he has WCS in Powell's spot in the rotation. Don't fuck up the rotation Hollinger!

 

The last word on last year

• 43-32, 7th in Western Conference, lost 4-2 to LA Clippers in first round
• 1^st in Offensive Efficiency (116.7)
• 18^th in Defensive Efficiency (111.7)

While it ultimately didn’t lead anywhere important, this was the year the Mavs established themselves as a force to be reckoned with in the 2020s. Luka Doncic rocketed to superstardom in his second season, a slew of young role players fortified the roster with quality and the Mavs finished with the league’s top-ranked offense. The defense wasn’t good enough to sustain them, especially once Kristaps Porzingis went out in the playoffs, and the league-leading offense repeatedly choked up in the most high-leverage moments. But overall, this was a tremendously positive season.

Dallas’ league-leading offense has been described in some quarters as the best of all time. This is narrowly correct, as the Mavs’ offensive efficiency of 116.7 was indeed the best ever but only because the rising tide of the current era lifts all boats. The league’s 23rd-ranked offense last year, Orlando, would have led the league in 1999-2000.

A more crucial distinction is that this year’s Mavs were 6.1 points above the league average on the season, which is fantastic but not historically elite (the 2003-04 Nash-Nowitzki Mavs, for instance, had a mark 9.2 points above the league average). That’s good news, in a way: even though the Mavs led the league, there is still room for this elevator to go up more. In particular, if Doncic can master 3s off the dribble (he made 31.6 percent), the league is in a world of hurt.

As for the defense … yeah. Dallas was only 19^th on the season and gave up 154 points to the Clippers in Game 5 of the playoffs. The Mavs didn’t foul but were last in forcing turnovers and took nothing away, and despite their size, they were not notably effective at rebounding or shot-blocking.

Offseason summary

While the Mavs kept one eye heavily focused on preserving 2021 cap space, they also tightened up the perimeter defense:

• Traded PG Seth Curry to Philadelphia for SG Josh Richardson and the 36^th pick
• Drafted SF Josh Green (18^th), PG Tyrell Terry (31^st) and PF Tyler Bey (36^th)
• Re-signed Willie Cauley-Stein for two years, $8.5 million with a second-year team option
• Re-signed PG Trey Burke for three years, $9 million with a third-year player option
• Signed SF Wesley Iwundu for two years, minimum
• Traded PG Delon Wright, SF Justin Jackson and two future seconds for PF James Johnson in three-way deal with Detroit and Oklahoma City
• Signed then waived PG J.J. Barea
• Signed Bey and SG Nate Hinton to two-ways
• Did not re-sign PF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

You can see the twin themes of improving the defense and improving the cap situation, and surprisingly they netted out down just one second-round pick at the end of it.

On the defensive side, Curry for Richardson subtracts shooting and floor spacing but gives them a wing stopper to play against elite perimeter players. Dallas just didn’t have this arrow in its quiver a year ago. The Mavs received a second-round pick in the bargain, largely because re-signing Richardson a year from now could be a challenge while Curry is signed for three more years.

Green gives them another potential stopper to groom, with iffy offense but the size and lateral quickness to be a plus wing defender. Iwundu is the third piece to that puzzle, a depth guy in the short term who can keep that spot warm until Green is ready.

On the other side, the Curry-Richardson and Wright-Jackson-Johnson swaps erased $18 million in 2021 cap liabilities, which means the Mavs have max cap space if they choose to go in that direction. (Party poopers will note that technically they must trade Iwundu and Burke to have the full max available; that should not be problematic if it comes to that.)

Dallas has in-season optionality too, with roughly $5 million of its midlevel exception remaining and $20 million in fungible expiring contracts (Johnson and Boban Marjanovic) to put into deals. While previous Dallas free-agency whale hunts have gone poorly, the Mavs left themselves in a nice position to pursue other options too.

The players in a nutshell

PLAYER	THE SCOOP
Jalen Brunson, PG	The secondary creator they were missing in playoffs.
Trey Burke, PG	Underrated guard was great pickup for bubble.
Willie Cauley-Stein, C	Won't rebound but might be league's fastest center.
Luka Doncic, SF	The best under-25 player on the planet.
Dorian Finney-Smith, PF	Undersized role player shoots juuuust well enough.
Josh Green, SF	First-round pick with defensive tools, offensive questions.
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG	Will feast on Luka's dimes, then fatten up in free agency.
Wesley Iwundu, SG	Long defensive pest with limited offensive reportoire.
James Johnson, PF	Still can junk up a game as "point center."
Maxi Kleber, PF	Dallas's best German big man since Chris Kaman.
Boban Marjanovic, C	Giant with short-range touch but flammable on D.
Kristaps Porzingis, C	A perennial All-Star, but for how many games?
Dwight Powell, PF	Rim-runner recovering from torn Achilles.
Josh Richardson, SG	Better role for him as defensive stopper next to Luka.
Tyrell Terry, PG	Small sharpshooter must fill out, improve handle.
Tyler Bey, SF (2w)	Bouncy, skinny forward must boost skill level to stick.
Nate Hinton, SG (2w)	Not a creator but showed some 3-and-D potential.

Likely lineup and projection

Rate = BORG projection for points per 100 possessions above (or below) replacement
Rank = Projected BORG rank among players at the position with at least 150 minutes in 2020-21
Value = BORD$ projection for 2020-21
(R) = Rookie, no projection

Starters

POS	PLAYER	RATE	RANK	VALUE ($M)
SG	Josh Richardson	2.04	27	13.3
SG	Tim Hardaway Jr.	2.05	25	12.8
SF	Luka Doncic	8.81	1	56.0
PF	Dorian Finney-Smith	2.54	21	14.5
C	Kristaps Porzingis	5.27	4	31.8

Rotation Reserves

POS	PLAYER	RATE	RANK	VALUE ($M)
PG	Jalen Brunson	2.58	23	12.1
PG	Trey Burke	1.72	35	7.1
SF	Josh Green	(R)	(R)	(R)
PF	Maxi Kleber	1.38	32	7.6
C	Willie Cauley-Stein	0.72	46	4.6

The Rest

POS	PLAYER	RATE	RANK	VALUE ($M)
PG	Tyrell Terry	(R)	(R)	(R)
SG	Wesley Iwundu	0.72	43	4.1
PF	James Johnson	0.25	63	2.5
PF	Dwight Powell	1.91	27	9.8
C	Boban Marjanovic	1.25	36	4.1
2w	Tyler Bey	(R)	(R)	(R)
2w	Nate Hinton	(R)	(R)	(R)

Burning questions

Can Porzingis stay healthy?

Of all the factors weighing on Dallas’ hopes of moving into a true contender, none are more important than the ability of their floor-spacing young center to stay on the floor. Porzingis is such a unique weapon because he’s 7-foot-3 with deep shooting range, which automatically makes him a phenomenal pick-and-pop weapon. And while he isn’t as adept at scoring against switches, his sheer size advantage makes teams loath to put somebody a foot shorter on him. He’s a matchup nightmare, in other words, and at the defensive end, he adds a mobile rim protector the Mavs otherwise lack.

There’s just one problem though: It turns out being 7-3 can be a disadvantage in some respects. I wrote about this before, but if you look at the history of oversized players in the league, it ain’t great. Once players get taller than 7 feet, the incidence of lower-extremity injuries is frequent enough that it cuts pretty sharply into their career length. The longest career for a player Porzingis’ size or taller is just 875 games, by Mark Eaton.

Porzingis has played 243 thus far … and missed 160. He’s had a torn ACL in one knee and a torn meniscus in the other and may miss the start of this season while he recovers from the meniscus injury in last year’s playoffs. That “good” knee also required a PRP injection in January.

Dallas has Porzingis locked into a max deal for four more seasons, so it’s critical that it gets something approaching All-Star level ROI. The concern in this case is not about quality but quantity. Even if the Mavs manage his minutes and limit back-to-backs once he returns, can Porzingis make it through the entire postseason?

Is Luka plus depth enough?

Assume for a moment that Porzingis is playing at his usual level by the time the postseason rolls around. The other bigger-picture, existential question for this team is what the supporting pieces should look like. Is Dallas wise to go all-in on another big-money star, even at the expense of its superlative depth? Or is it better to surround Doncic with multiple shooters and defenders, knowing that he’ll have the ball in his hands all game anyway?

That’s a question of immediate importance in some respects. In theory, the Mavs could sign Tim Hardaway Jr. to an extension tomorrow, for instance, but it would nuke their 2021 cap space. It also impacts how Dallas might approach the trade market. The Mavs have some interesting expiring contracts that could get them a true power forward (Dorian Finney-Smith is 6-7 on tiptoes) and can put young players and picks in play (including their own first in 2027 and pick swaps in 2022 and 2026) to sweeten the pot. They can make a move like this and still have enough money to re-sign Richardson, Hardaway and use their exception money.

But any transaction like this takes them out of play for the Kawhis of the world (and even the Beals, most likely). Maybe that’s a good thing — the Mavs’ free-agent chases have been more fruitless than a McDonald’s menu. Regardless, it’s an opportunity cost they need to think about.

Outlook and prediction

The Mavs have problems most teams could only dream of: How to keep their All-Stars healthy, how to best leverage their upcoming cap room and how to maximize the prime years of a generational talent. Many of those questions won’t be answered immediately and are going to push into next offseason and beyond.

In the short term, however, this team still figures to be really good. Their biggest weakness a year ago was the perimeter defense, and they’ve made some major changes to upgrade in that area. Doncic is a prodigy who is still coming into the full breadth of his powers at age 21 and could end up winning MVP this year. Even with conservative projections for Porzingis (cross your fingers, y’all) and Dwight Powell (recovering from a torn Achilles), the Mavs figure to have just enough depth in the frontcourt to survive most nights.

One still worries about this team at the highest levels. The shot-creation strain that falls almost entirely on Doncic late in games makes Dallas too predictable, and none of the bigs are adept at punishing switches. They may be able to address these issues in-season, but it won’t be simple. Porzingis, of course, remains a concern until he makes it through a season upright.

Nonetheless, don’t overthink this. Even a year ago the Mavs had the league’s sixth-best point differential, and they made themselves substantially better in the offseason. I’m not sure if it should be a surprise, but I think the Mavs’ record will surprise people.

Prediction: 47-25, 2^nd in Western Conference

[CBT 1283]

Must read

 

 

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

Absolutely hilarious!!!

 

[LurkingHorn 1066]

So preseason is over now. @CBT, you going to make the new thread?

[Get ln My Van 927]

Saw on Twitter that we may throw our hat in the James Harden ring. Offense would be unreal but obviously defense would be a huge question mark. Imagine we’d have to part with Porzingis too.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Get ln My Van

[conVINCEd 21469]

7 minutes ago, Get ln My Van said:

Saw on Twitter that we may throw our hat in the James Harden ring. Offense would be unreal but obviously defense would be a huge question mark. Imagine we’d have to part with Porzingis too.

Do. Not.  Want.

[Party_Taco 3760]

[idigTexas 2289]

I cannot imagine Harden taking a backseat to Luka, and I don't want Luka taking a backseat to anyone.  No thanks.  

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

 

 

[threesheets 1674]

"No shit."

[Vic Mackey 47111]

[Vic Mackey 47111]

8 hours ago, idigTexas said:

I cannot imagine Harden taking a backseat to Luka, and I don't want Luka taking a backseat to anyone.  No thanks.  

Fuck Harden. Would not want him near Luka. 

[CBT 1283]

On 12/18/2020 at 9:37 AM, LurkingHorn said:

So preseason is over now. @CBT, you going to make the new thread?

 

On 12/13/2020 at 11:32 AM, RexWilson said:

Only a preseason game but I liked what Hinton showed.

Soon we need to start the season thread. Anyone with suggestions? This is going to be Luka's first MVP season so it should be good.

Name suggestions? Y'all nailed it last year. 

[conVINCEd 21469]

1 hour ago, CBT said:

 

Name suggestions? Y'all nailed it last year. 

That motherfucker in Dallas is coming.

[threesheets 1674]

Do it.

[gsoda3 3280]

26 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

That motherfucker in Dallas is coming.

love it.  except i'll need that mfer broken up so it doesn't trigger anything on my work servers.

[RexWilson 1348]

Post in it in slovenian. Not sure how accurate google English to Slovenian translation is 

prihaja mater v Dallas

[Drew 2512]

That lover of mothers is coming?

[Drew 2512]

On 12/18/2020 at 6:39 PM, Vic Mackey said:

He was also voted Top 5 for SG I believe...and received votes at Forward as well.  Guys like Luka and Lebron really screw this up....they really should just do away with positions and just use Perimeter and Inside or something.

[CBT 1283]

New thread 

 

 

[Drew 2512]